Exploratory scenario development
Drivers are mapped, critical uncertainties chosen and combined into a small set of divergent, internally consistent narratives, then challenged by participants from outside the commissioning institution.
GRF · Foresight Nexus
面向前瞻的情景设计与压力测试
Scenario design and stress testing are the core methods of this platform: building plausible, divergent futures and using them to test whether strategies, plans and institutions hold. In foresight the weight falls on design choices, on who takes part, and on how results reach a decision-holder with a mandate to act.
01目录
Scenario design and stress testing for foresight in five parts.
02申请
What scenario design and stress testing does here.
Scenario design and stress testing construct plausible, severe future conditions to examine how 系统 and institutions would perform. They complement probabilistic analysis where data are scarce or futures are deeply uncertain. In foresight and risk management and 系统性风险, stress tests reveal vulnerabilities that arise when several risks materialise together. They inform capital, contingency and coordination plans across sectors. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.
Policy wind-tunnelling
A strategy or proposed regulation is tested against each scenario in a structured workshop, recording where it fails, what would need to change and which signposts would show that future arriving.
Supervisory and national risk scenarios
Severe but plausible scenarios are drafted for supervisory exercises or national risk assessments, with the severity reasoning, the assumptions and the institutional responses they test documented.
03监测
Scenario stress.
团队遵循该方法时会使用的界面：其指标、状态与决策。名称为示例，数值仅作示意。
Scenario stress
Foresight · Scenario design and stress testing · Run R-5825
Severe case breaches limitGRF · Foresight Nexus
情景集
| 基线 | Central | 26 | 范围之内 |
| Adverse | 1-in-25 | 49 | 关闭 |
| 严重 | 1-in-100 | 76 | 超限 |
| Reverse stress | Find the break | 100 | Defines edge |
方法卡
- 方法
- 情景设计与压力测试
- 叙事
- compound shock
- 地平线
- 4 years
- 标签
- 模型估算
Impact build-up, severe case
04数据
该方法使用的输入。
Datasets and records used by scenario design and stress testing on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in 来源登记册.
| 数据 | 角色 | 标签 |
|---|---|---|
| Driver and trend registers | Inputs to the choice of critical uncertainties | 已报告 |
| Published scenario sets from public bodies | Comparison and reuse of scenario logic | 已发布统计 |
| Integrated assessment model pathways | Quantified background for climate and energy scenarios | 模型估算 |
| Workshop and exercise records | Participation, challenges raised and decisions tested | 已报告 |
| Historical analogues and past crises | Plausibility and severity reference | 观测 |
05政策情景
比较文书：规则、激励和信息。
三类工具在你设定的覆盖率和遵从率下与基线并列比较，每类都有自己的滞后和采用速度；效应大小是教学用数值，应以证据替换。情景：关于未来的具名假设，不是预测。
控制措施
- 结果的基线趋势
- 每年 2.0%
- 该工具的覆盖范围
- 70%
- 合规
- 75%
- 效应量，相对于教学取值
- 100%
- 未来年数
- 20 年
读数
- 期末时点降幅最大
- 监管
- 相对基线的降幅
- 21%
数字、方法与来源
| 年份 | 基线 | 监管 | 经济激励 | 信息与能力 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100.0 | 99.5 | 98.8 | 99.1 |
| 1 | 102.0 | 101.2 | 100.1 | 99.8 |
| 2 | 104.0 | 102.5 | 101.1 | 99.9 |
| 3 | 106.1 | 103.5 | 101.6 | 100.0 |
| 4 | 108.2 | 103.7 | 101.8 | 100.7 |
| 5 | 110.4 | 103.2 | 101.7 | 102.1 |
| 6 | 112.6 | 102.0 | 101.6 | 103.9 |
| 7 | 114.9 | 100.4 | 101.6 | 105.9 |
| 8 | 117.2 | 99.2 | 102.1 | 108.0 |
| 9 | 119.5 | 98.6 | 102.9 | 110.1 |
| 10 | 121.9 | 98.9 | 104.2 | 112.3 |
| 11 | 124.3 | 99.7 | 105.7 | 114.5 |
| 12 | 126.8 | 101.1 | 107.4 | 116.8 |
| 13 | 129.4 | 102.7 | 109.4 | 119.2 |
| 14 | 131.9 | 104.5 | 111.4 | 121.6 |
| 15 | 134.6 | 106.5 | 113.5 | 124.0 |
| 16 | 137.3 | 108.5 | 115.7 | 126.5 |
| 17 | 140.0 | 110.7 | 118.0 | 129.0 |
| 18 | 142.8 | 112.9 | 120.4 | 131.6 |
| 19 | 145.7 | 115.1 | 122.8 | 134.2 |
| 20 | 148.6 | 117.4 | 125.2 | 136.9 |
方法
- 政府工具 Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan
- 胡萝卜、大棒与说教 Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction
- 创新扩散 Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press
- 不确定性扇形图（参数蒙特卡罗） Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- 单因素敏感性（龙卷风图） Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
数据
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- 边界 Natural Earth
- 城市 Natural Earth
贯穿六大支柱，由 Nexus Consortium 牵头
06验证
结果如何核查。
Scenarios are reviewed for plausibility, internal consistency and severity relative to history. Exercise outcomes are compared with actual events when they occur.
| 核查 | 如何开展 |
|---|---|
| Internal consistency | A cross-impact or consistency matrix confirms that the elements of each scenario can coexist |
| Divergence and coverage | The set is checked to span futures that would call for different responses, not variants of one future |
| Challenge by outsiders | Participants from outside the commissioning institution review the assumptions before the set is used |
| 回顾性审查 | As events unfold, the set is compared with what happened to learn what it missed |
Scenario choice can reflect prevailing assumptions and miss novel combinations. Results depend on how participants and models represent responses.
07实施
从授权到评估，按支柱划分。
一项文书从授权到评估所经历的步骤，每一步都标明负责运行的支柱，以及仍由当局作出的决定。这是带有明示说明性数值的教学模型，不是预测。
- 授权与问题界定 主管当局（计划之外）
主管当局依其自身规则界定问题和授权。 Howlett、Ramesh 和 Perl（2009） - 证据与系统模型 Foundry
对系统及其反馈、数据和已说明的局限进行建模。 OECD (2014)，原则 2 - 在情景下评估备选方案 Foundry
在情景下比较各项政策工具，并显示不确定性。 Hood (1983) - 与利益相关方演练 宇宙
在演练中与将实施和承担这些方案的各方一起检验方案。 OECD（2014），原则 3 - 起草标准或指南 Nexus Standards
行之有效的做法被编纂为标准或指南，并公开征求意见。 Nexus Standards 流程 - 由主管当局决定 主管当局（计划之外）
主管当局在计划之外，依据记录在案的证据作出决定。 Howlett、Ramesh 和 Perl（2009） - 能力与培训 Risk Academy
负责实施的人员接受关于所决定文书及其数据的培训。 仙台框架（2015），优先事项 2 - 监测与公开报告 报告
指标连同来源、局限和更正一并发布。 OECD（2014），原则 5 - 评估与修订 Nexus Standards
结果反馈至标准和模型：循环闭合。 Howlett、Ramesh 和 Perl（2009）
方法
- 政策周期 Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press
- 关键风险治理 OECD（2014），Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks
- 有向图的分层绘制 Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11
贯穿六大支柱，由 Nexus Consortium 牵头
09工具与承诺
How scenario design and stress testing for foresight is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.
政策制定者、外交官或发展机构所使用的文书、授权、行为方和问责安排，并注明设定它们的协定。结构遵循所列框架。所绘制的任何状态或进展均为说明性，并非记录。
政策工具矩阵
The kinds of instrument available on scenario design and stress testing for foresight, by level of government and cooperation.
| 工具类型 | 地方 | 国家 | 区域 | 全球 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 监管型 | 分区、建筑规范 | 法律、标准、许可 | 统一规则 | 公约与条约 |
| 经济 | 地方税费、拨款 | 预算项目、税收、保险计划 | 风险池，区域基金 | 融资机制 |
| 信息 | 地方预警 | 披露、预警、统计 | 数据共享安排 | 全球监测与报告 |
| 制度型 | 地方委员会 | 牵头机构，协调理事会 | 区域机构与秘书处 | 多边授权 |
| 合作型 | 社区协议 | 伙伴关系契约 | 谅解备忘录与联合计划 | 协定与共同承诺 |
《仙台框架》（减少灾害风险） · 联合国减少灾害风险办公室《巴黎协定》 · 《联合国气候变化框架公约》《2030 年可持续发展议程》和可持续发展目标 · 联合国《国际卫生条例》 · 世卫组织
10管理责任
由谁维护该方法。
系统性风险管理 stewards scenario design and stress testing for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
11已关联
本页在整个联合体中通向何处。
12问题
问题与解答。
What are the limits of scenario design and stress testing in this field?
Scenario choice can reflect prevailing assumptions and miss novel combinations. Results depend on how participants and models represent responses.
结果如何核查？
Scenarios are reviewed for plausibility, internal consistency and severity relative to history. Exercise outcomes are compared with actual events when they occur.
本页面上的数值是真实的吗？
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
该方法还应用于何处？
维持社会运转的各个 规范方法页面 列出应用该方法的每个平台。
报告贡献
从本页贡献证据。
报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
全球风险论坛（Global Risks Forum）Foresight Nexus前瞻展望情景与压力测试
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法律
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