The Global Risks Forum (GRF)
Population ageing, migration, urbanisation, changing households and shifts in trust and social cohesion are the slow variables of the future. Some are largely set by people already born; others, such as migration and trust, can turn quickly. This page sets out how demographic projections and social measures are used in foresight, how institutions misread slow change until it becomes urgent, and which ministries and parliaments hold the decisions.
Demographic and social futures · Horizon 2040 · Round 5
| Insurers exit high-risk postcodes | Finance | Medium | High | Protection retreat |
| Cheap sensors in informal settlements | Technology | High | Medium | Citizen data |
| Heat limits outdoor work hours | Labour | Medium | High | Heat economy |
| Synthetic media in elections | Information | Low | High | Trust erosion |
impact vs uncertainty
Fig.Horizon scanning board. Design wireframe with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record or a live system.
Demographic change is the shift in the size and structure of populations through births, deaths and migration, and with changing households, urbanisation and trust it forms the slow variables of the future. Ageing is largely set by people already born; migration and trust can turn quickly, so projections carry intervals and scenarios.
For demographic and social futures, in GRF's situational-awareness reading, the map opens on population density and flood water with relief in 3D and built-up and settlement extent from NASA GIBS, framed on the Arctic; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
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NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
For demographic and social futures, in GRF's situational-awareness reading, the map opens on population density and flood water with relief in 3D and built-up and settlement extent from NASA GIBS, framed on the Arctic; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
Ageing, migration, trust and cohesion. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Today's age structure carries forward for decades: much of the next generation's working-age population is already born. Projections are most reliable for people alive now and least reliable for future births and migration.
Migration responds to conflict, climate, labour demand and policy, and can change faster than fertility or mortality. It is often the largest source of uncertainty in national projections.
Trust in institutions and in other people shapes compliance, collective action and the capacity to absorb shocks. It tends to erode slowly and can collapse quickly after perceived unfairness or failure.
Pensions, health systems, schools and housing are built for an age structure that shifts gradually. Institutions often respond only when pressure becomes acute, though the evidence was visible long before.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Old-age dependency ratio | The number of people aged sixty-five and over per hundred people of working age. |
| Demographic momentum | Continued population growth or decline driven by the current age structure after fertility changes. |
| Probabilistic projection | A population projection that gives a range with probabilities, as UN World Population Prospects does. |
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old-age dependency ratio | persons of pension age per hundred of working age | annual | Population projections | MODELLED |
| Total fertility rate | births per woman | annual | Civil registration and surveys | OFFICIAL |
| Net migration | persons per year | annual | National statistics and international estimates | ESTIMATED |
| Forcibly displaced population | persons | half-yearly | Refugee and displacement statistics | OFFICIAL |
| Width of population projection intervals | persons | per projection revision | Probabilistic projections | MODELLED |
| Trust in national government | share of respondents | per survey wave | Representative surveys | REPORTED |
| Interpersonal trust | share of respondents | per survey wave | Values surveys | REPORTED |
| Young people not in employment, education or training | share of youth population | annual | Labour force surveys | OFFICIAL |
The topic as a computational graph: named sources feed the methods, an evidence review gates the outputs, and the decisions stay with the authorities that hold them.
Fig. 02Nodes carry their type, two metric rows and a state; connectors show what feeds what; dashed frames name the owners; the timeline is the cadence. Design of the pipeline, not a record of a run.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| UN World Population Prospects | Population estimates and probabilistic projections by age and sex for every country | CC BY 3.0 IGO |
| Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data Explorer | Population projections by age, sex and education under the shared socioeconomic pathways | Free with attribution |
| UNHCR Refugee Data Finder | Statistics on forcibly displaced and stateless people | CC BY 4.0 |
| IOM Migration Data Portal | Compiled migration statistics and evidence on migration drivers | Free with attribution, IOM terms |
| OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions | Comparable measures of trust and its drivers across member countries | OECD terms, free with attribution |
| World Values Survey | Values, beliefs and interpersonal trust across waves and countries | Free for non-commercial use with registration |
| ILOSTAT | Labour market statistics, including young people outside employment and education | CC BY 4.0 |
Foresight Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Finance ministries and fiscal councils | How ageing and migration scenarios affect long-term fiscal sustainability | Projection intervals and variants, with the assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration stated |
| Labour, social affairs and health ministries | How pension, care and health systems should adapt to changing age structures | Cohort projections, dependency measures and scenarios for care demand and workforce |
| Interior and migration ministries | Which migration scenarios to plan reception and integration capacity for | Migration scenarios with drivers, ranges and the signposts that would show which is unfolding |
| Parliaments and parliamentary committees for the future | How to scrutinise demographic and social pressures that run beyond the electoral cycle | Demographic outlooks, trust measures and the institutional choices they raise |
Demographic change is among the more predictable long-term forces, because the people who will be adults in coming decades are already born. Many countries are ageing as fertility falls and life expectancy rises, while others have young and growing populations. These patterns shape labour supply, public spending, care needs and political priorities. Migration links regions with different demographic profiles and is influenced by economic, environmental and political conditions.
Social trends are less predictable. Trust in institutions, social cohesion and polarization can shift quickly in response to crises, information environments and perceptions of fairness. Societies with high trust and cohesion tend to manage collective crises more effectively, so these factors are central to resilience. Changes in information environments, including the spread of misinformation, are an active area of research.
Cohort-based projections, drawing on forecasting and time-series analysis, estimate future population structures under stated assumptions.
Long-running surveys track values, trust and attitudes over time.
Engaging citizens and communities to explore social futures from their perspectives.
Projections depend on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration; social trends can reverse, and survey data may not capture marginalized groups.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.