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GRFForesight NexusEstablished
STEM foundation

STEM foundation of Foresight Nexus

The science, technology, engineering and mathematics Foresight Nexus rests on. Each method has a canonical page in the STEM Commons, hosted by GCRI, and a page here on how it is applied in this field.

Open Scenario design and stress testing for foresight Back to Foresight Nexus
Foresight NexusRegister
  1. 01MethodScenario design and stress testing for foresight
  2. 02MethodForecasting in foresight
  3. 03MethodComplex systems in foresight
  4. 04MethodDecision analysis in foresight

GRF · Established · service level R0

01In brief

The short answer.

The Foresight Nexus STEM foundation is the set of canonical methods its findings depend on, from scenario design and stress testing to decision analysis under uncertainty. Each method has a canonical STEM Commons page and a page here on its use in the foresight field.

02Canvas

Methods feeding this platform.

Canvas · methods feeding this platformDesign, not a record
STEM foundation of Foresight Nexus: from horizon scanning to wind-tunnelled policySignals from horizon scanning are clustered into drivers; the most uncertain and impactful define scenario axes; narratives are written; policies are wind-tunnelled against each scenario and signposts monitored. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.The methods this platform draws on and what each one feeds. Design, not a record.

03Geography

Hazards and exposure in the Arctic.

For STEM foundation of foresight nexus, in GRF's situational-awareness reading, the map opens on population density, flood water and active fires, framed on the Arctic; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Hazards and exposure, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

For STEM foundation of foresight nexus, in GRF's situational-awareness reading, the map opens on population density, flood water and active fires, framed on the Arctic; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · GDACSSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not official warnings.
  • Live: GDACS (EC JRC / UN OCHA) Events are indicative, not official warnings.
  • Optional layers (35 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies, last day: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

04Methods

The methods behind the field.

  1. Scenario design and stress testingExploratory scenario development · Policy wind-tunnellingSteward · Systemic Risk ManagementApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  2. Forecasting and time-series analysisAggregated judgemental forecasting · Probabilistic population projectionsSteward · Climate and HazardsApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  3. Complex systems and agent-based modellingSystems mapping of drivers · Agent-based exploration of social changeSteward · Systems Science and ModellingApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  4. Decision analysis under uncertaintyRobust decision making · Dynamic adaptive policy pathways · Structured expert elicitationSteward · Systemic Risk ManagementApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
05Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
STEM CommonsThe shared reference of science, technology, engineering and mathematics methods for the Nexus network, hosted by GCRI, with one canonical page per method and a named steward platform.
Steward platformThe platform that maintains the canonical description of a method in the STEM Commons and reviews how other platforms apply it.
Scenario design and stress testingScenario design and stress testing construct plausible, severe future conditions to examine how systems and institutions would perform.
Forecasting and time-series analysisForecasting and time-series analysis predict future values of variables from past observations and explanatory information.
06Why it matters

Grounding makes claims checkable.

When a finding names the methods it depends on, a reader can see its assumptions and limits, and an expert in that method can challenge it.

07Pages

Pages in STEM foundation of Foresight Nexus.

Method

Scenario design and stress testing for foresight

Method

Forecasting in foresight

Method

Complex systems in foresight

Method

Decision analysis in foresight

08Questions

Questions and answers.

What is a steward platform?
The platform that maintains the canonical description of a method and reviews how it is applied across the Consortium.
Related

Around Foresight Nexus.

Foresight Nexus

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