Foresight and future-oriented resources
Foresight helps institutions prepare for futures that are plausible but not yet visible in today's data. The Global Risks Forum (GRF) leads its foresight work through the Foresight Nexus, one of its seven established specialist platforms, which works on strategic foresight, multiple futures and institutional anticipation. This page points to the authoritative Foresight Nexus research and outcomes as they are released, and explains how foresight material should be read: as structured exploration of possibilities, never as prediction.
- Institution
- The Global Risks Forum (GRF)
- Service level
- R0: information and enquiries
- 01Draftsources cited, labels attached
- 02Evidence checkevery value traced
- 03Independent reviewconflicts declared
- 04Editionpublished with its limits
- 05Correctiona new version, never a silent edit
The short answer.
Foresight and future-oriented resources at GRF point to the work of Foresight Nexus, GRF's established platform for strategic foresight, multiple futures and institutional anticipation. Foresight helps institutions prepare for futures that are plausible but not yet visible in today's data; it informs dialogue questions and exercise scenarios and is never a prediction.
Jurisdictions in the Nordic and Baltic region.
The jurisdictions that hold authority over this question: countries, their first-level divisions and capitals, shown for the Nordic and Baltic region as an example geography for this subject.
Foresight material and where it lives.
| Resource | Where it is published | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Foresight Nexus research | Foresight Nexus | Methods and findings of the specialist community |
| Foresight Nexus reports | Foresight Nexus reports | Contributions to Nexus Reports, released after review |
| Future generations and anticipation | Future generations and anticipation | GRF's governance view of long-horizon consequences |
| Scenario evidence | The Nexus Reports programme and GCRI | Scenario results labelled as Scenario, not Forecast or Observed |
Items appear here once released. A planned foresight paper is not presented as published.
Foresight methods used in outlooks.
| Method | What it yields | Common misuse |
|---|---|---|
| Horizon scanning | Weak signals and emerging issues | Treating a signal as a trend |
| Scenarios | Several internally consistent futures | Picking one as the forecast |
| Three horizons | How the present system gives way to a new one | Ignoring who loses in transition |
| Delphi | Structured expert judgement over rounds | Reporting consensus as evidence |
| Backcasting | Pathways from a desired future to today | Assuming the endpoint is agreed |
How an outlook enters governance.
An outlook is useful when it changes a question institutions ask. GRF outlooks end with questions for named kinds of institutions rather than predictions. Methods sit with Foresight Nexus; quantitative scenario work, for example the NGFS climate scenarios used by central banks, is read with GRA.
Three rules for using foresight well.
Not predictions
A scenario explores what could happen under stated assumptions. It is labelled as such and never presented as a forecast.
Stated openly
Every foresight product is designed to state its assumptions, time horizon and the uncertainty it does not resolve.
Multiple futures
Foresight that offers a single future hides choices; Foresight Nexus work presents alternatives.
How foresight feeds governance.
Foresight informs dialogue questions, council agendas and the scenarios used in Nexus Universe exercises. The scientific models and scenario methods behind it are led by The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) and described on GCRI models and scenarios. Findings carry their evidence labels, such as Scenario, Modelled or Expert judgement, so that readers can tell them apart from observed facts.
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Strategic foresight | A structured and systematic way of using ideas about the future to anticipate and prepare for change, in OECD usage. |
| Horizon scanning | The systematic search for early signs of change, such as weak signals and emerging issues, before they reach the policy agenda. |
| Exploratory scenario | A scenario built from drivers to explore what could happen, rather than to reach a chosen goal. |
Where this page's references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
Does GRF publish forecasts?
Who writes Foresight Nexus material?
Can foresight be used for investment decisions?
How is foresight different from risk governance?
How do I contribute to foresight work?
Around GRF.
Start with an enquiry.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.