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GRF · Foresight Nexus

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Institutional dialogues in foresight Nexus: structured conversations that compare evidence and options among the people who decide.

Pirsek bike Back to Foresight Nexus
01Rêzik

Rêza ku tişt tê de diqewimin.

  1. 01PirsPêşengiya neteweyî, herêmî an sazûmanî
  2. 02DelîlBingeha STEM a platformê
  3. 03AvakirinFoundry
  4. 04Organîze bikeEkosîstema Nexus
  5. 05CeribandinUniverse (malpera serbixwe)
  6. 06Weşandinrêzeya Pergalên Stratejîk
  7. 07BiryarRayedar û saziyên jêhatî, bi riya NXS-RLS (beşdar, lihevkirin û radestkirin)
  8. 08NûkirinRastkirin û ajandaya salane ya pêş
02Rewş

Dialogues are listed when confirmed.

Each dialogue appears here once confirmed, with its host, format and terms. To propose one, write to forma qeydê.

03The foresight dialogue

Asking institutions what they would do in a future they do not expect.

Foresight dialogues use scenarios to loosen assumptions that institutions do not know they hold. A ministry that plans for one climate pathway, one demographic projection and one technology trajectory is asked to walk through futures where each breaks. The useful output is not a forecast but a list of decisions that look robust across futures and decisions that only work in one.

FormatBikaranîn
Scenario workshopBuild or use a scenario set and test a strategy against each
Wind-tunnelling sessionRun an existing plan through several scenarios
Horizon-scanning panelDiscuss weak signals collected in advance
Futures-literacy laboratoryExamine how participants use the future in their thinking, following UNESCO practice
04Pêvajo

Pêvajo çawa dimeşe.

Process explorer · Process

Dialogues and cooperation: Catastrophe model pipeline

10 steps5 qonax

Pêvajo

Dialogues and cooperation: Catastrophe model pipeline

Catastrophe models usually have hazard, vulnerability, exposure and financial modules, and produce loss tables, average annual loss, exceedance curves, PML and TVaR.

  1. 01 Hazard

    1. 01Event catalogueDataset · Model developerThe hazard module holds a large catalogue of simulated events that represents a wide range of plausible scenarios.
    2. 03Hazard moduleModel · Model developerFor each event the hazard module gives the local hazard intensity that the vulnerability module reads.

  2. 02 Exposure and damage

    1. 02RûbirûbûnDataset · Foresight leadThe exposure module houses the portfolio data, such as location-specific information.
    2. 04Vulnerability moduleModel · Model developerThe vulnerability module quantifies the expected damage to the exposures from an event.

  3. 03 Financial

    1. 05Financial moduleModel · Foresight leadThe financial module calculates losses from all event scenarios. Ground-up, gross and net losses differ as shown below.
    2. 06Event loss tableDataset · Foresight leadAn event loss table lists each event with its annual occurrence probability and its loss for the portfolio.
    3. 07Year loss tableDataset · Foresight leadSome models also sample simulated years from event losses. This outline does not describe their format.

  4. 04 Metrics

    1. 08Exceedance probability curvesModel · Foresight leadThe occurrence curve gives the chance that the largest loss in a year exceeds an amount. The aggregate curve does so for the sum of losses.
    2. 09AAL, PML and TVaRModel · Foresight leadAverage annual loss sums event probability times loss. PML is one point on the occurrence curve.

  5. 05 Use of results

    1. 10Use of resultsDecision · Foresight leadThe tail metrics are used when considering a portfolio’s exposure and the level of catastrophe reinsurance an insurer requires.

Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.

06Çavkanî

Where this page’s references lead.

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07Pirs

Pirs û bersiv.

Are dialogues public?
Each dialogue states its format. Outcome notes are published with participants’ consent.
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