Peace and human security
Water stress, climate shocks and the loss of livelihoods rarely cause armed conflict on their own, but they interact with weak institutions, exclusion and existing grievances. Human security places people, not only states, at the centre of that analysis. This page sets out how conflict-sensitive risk dialogue is organised, which institutions hold mandates for prevention and peaceful settlement, how conflict and cooperation are recorded, and what the evidence can responsibly support.
- 01In briefDefinition and scope
- 02The question4 mechanisms
- 03Key terms3
- 04FieldH3 field plate
- 05Indicators8
- 06PipelineRun graph
- 07Sources7
- 08Decision holders4
- 09Methods4
GRF · Established · service level R0
The short answer.
Human security is an approach that places people, not only states, at the centre of security, covering freedom from fear and from want. Water stress, climate shocks and lost livelihoods rarely cause armed conflict alone, but they interact with weak institutions, exclusion and grievance, so analysis is conflict-sensitive and location data is often withheld.
Jurisdictions in Europe.
The jurisdictions that hold authority over this question: countries, their first-level divisions and capitals, shown for Europe as an example geography for this subject.
Negotiation track desk, in outline.
The working screen behind this subject: its structure, terms and states. Names are placeholders and values illustrative.
Negotiation track desk
Peace and human security · Shared basin dialogue · Round 7
Track
- Conveneparties
- Fact-findingjoint
- Optionsshared
- Draft textbrackets
- Agreementparties decide
- Implementmonitor
Draft text, articles
| Art. 3 | Data exchange | 1 | Agreed ad ref |
| Art. 5 | Low-flow sharing | 5 | Open |
| Art. 7 | Notification of works | 1 | Open |
| Art. 9 | Dispute avoidance | 5 | Not discussed |
Facilitator note
- Next round
- week 9
- Format
- closed, non-attribution
- Decision
- parties only
- GRF role
- convenes, records
Peace and human security: how the risk develops.
Conflict-sensitive and peace-related risk dialogue. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
A multiplier, not a single cause
Climate and resource stress act through livelihoods, food prices, mobility and competition for land and water. Whether stress becomes violence depends on governance, inclusion and the capacity to resolve disputes, so the same shock can produce conflict in one place and cooperation in another.
Peaceful settlement as a duty
Chapter VI of the UN Charter requires parties to a dispute likely to endanger peace to seek a solution by negotiation, enquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, regional arrangements or other peaceful means of their choice.
Shared resources as entry points
Joint management of water, forests or fisheries can give adversaries a practical agenda and a reason to keep meeting. Environmental peacebuilding uses these entry points with care, because resource cooperation can also entrench the power of armed actors.
Conflict sensitivity
Every intervention, including dialogue and data collection, shifts local power. A conflict-sensitive approach asks who gains and who loses, avoids naming communities as threats and keeps sensitive locations out of public view.
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Threat multiplier | A factor, such as climate change, that worsens existing drivers of instability without being a single cause. |
| Conflict sensitivity | Understanding the context and acting to avoid making conflict worse. |
| Environmental peacebuilding | Using cooperation over shared natural resources to build trust between parties. |
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organised violence events | events and fatalities per year | annual | UCDP georeferenced event records | REPORTED |
| Active state-based armed conflicts | count of conflicts | annual | UCDP/PRIO armed conflict records | REPORTED |
| Peace agreements with provisions on land, water or natural resources | count of agreements with coded provisions | per agreement | PA-X peace agreement coding | REPORTED |
| Security Council decisions referring to climate or environmental risk | count of resolutions and presidential statements | annual | Security Council documents | OFFICIAL |
| Mediation and good offices processes under way | count of processes | annual | UN and regional organisation records | REPORTED |
| Inter-state disputes referred to courts or arbitration | count of pending cases | continuous | ICJ and PCA dockets | OFFICIAL |
| Multilateral peace operations | count of operations and personnel | annual | SIPRI multilateral peace operations records | REPORTED |
| Recorded violent incidents involving water systems | coded incidents | annual | Water conflict chronologies | ESTIMATED |
From sources to decisions.
The topic as a computational graph: named sources feed the methods, an evidence review gates the outputs, and the decisions stay with the authorities that hold them.
Fig. 02Nodes carry their type, two metric rows and a state; connectors show what feeds what; dashed frames name the owners; the timeline is the cadence. Design of the pipeline, not a record of a run.
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| Uppsala Conflict Data Program | Georeferenced events, armed conflicts, non-state and one-sided violence and peace agreements | Open, CC BY 4.0 |
| SIPRI databases | Multilateral peace operations, arms transfers and military expenditure | Free to use, attribution and terms |
| PA-X Peace Agreements Database (University of Edinburgh) | Peace agreement texts coded for provisions including land, water and natural resources | Free for research, attribution |
| UN Peacemaker | Peace agreements and mediation guidance from the UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs | Public records |
| Security Council records | Resolutions, presidential statements and meeting records | Public records |
| Pacific Institute Water Conflict Chronology | Recorded incidents of violence involving water resources and systems | Free to read, terms of use |
| ICJ and PCA case records | Judgments and awards in inter-state disputes settled by peaceful means | Public records; PCA records where the parties consent |
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Diplomacy Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Mediators and special envoys | Whether and how to put water, land or climate issues on the agenda of a peace process | Comparable provisions in other agreements, the resource context with its uncertainty |
| Security Council members and the Peacebuilding Commission | Whether mandates should address climate and environmental risk, and how it is reported | Mandate language in force, reporting practice, the evidence base and its limits |
| Foreign ministries of states in dispute | Which peaceful means of settlement to propose or accept | Chapter VI options, the record of comparable disputes and how they were settled |
| UN country teams and regional organisations | How to design programmes that do no harm in conflict-affected areas | Conflict-sensitivity analyses, local resource governance records |
Outputs this topic produces
- Conflict-sensitive dialogue records that protect participants and sensitive locations
- Comparative reviews of natural resource provisions in peace agreements
- Guides to Chapter VI settlement options for resource and boundary disputes
- Context analyses that keep observed events apart from estimated risk
What practitioners and scholars ask.
- How do environmental and economic stresses interact with conflict risk?
- How can risk reduction and development work avoid making conflict worse?
- What role can shared resource management play in building peace?
- How do fragile and conflict-affected settings change how risk is managed?
- How can affected communities shape decisions that concern them?
How systemic risks relate to conflict.
Research finds that climate and environmental stress rarely cause conflict directly, but can act as risk multipliers where governance is weak, livelihoods are fragile and grievances exist. Drought may reduce incomes and increase competition for land and water; food price spikes have been associated with unrest. The relationship is context-dependent and contested in the literature.
Conflict in turn magnifies other risks. It destroys infrastructure, displaces people, disrupts health systems and markets, and weakens the institutions needed for risk management. Fragile settings face many of the highest risks with the least capacity.
Conflict sensitivity means understanding how any intervention interacts with conflict dynamics, and designing to avoid harm. Shared resource management, such as joint water projects, has sometimes created cooperation, though it can also become a source of tension.
How the platform approaches the subject.
- 01
Conflict-sensitive analysis
Frameworks for understanding how risk interventions interact with conflict. They require local knowledge.
- 02
Evidence review
Examining research on climate, resources and conflict. Findings vary and causal claims are contested.
- 03
Comparative institutional analysis
Studying how peacebuilding and risk institutions interact, using policy science.
- 04
Structured dialogue
Convening scholars and practitioners under safeguards that protect participants.
Discussion of conflict involves real risks to participants. Dialogues are designed with safeguarding and confidentiality rules, and nothing is published that could endanger anyone.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- Policy, institutional and decision scienceComparative treaty analysis · Mandate and institutional mapping · Implementation reviewApplied here
- Game theory and mechanism designBenefit sharing in a shared basin · Coalitions in climate agreementsApplied here
- Hydrology and water scienceJoint basin water accounts · Testing allocation rules against droughtApplied here
- Ocean and coastal scienceSea-level rise and maritime zones · Shared stocks and fisheries bodiesApplied here
Questions and answers.
Does climate change cause conflict?
What is human security?
Why is sensitive location data often withheld?
Does the platform mediate conflicts?
How are participants protected?
Can people from affected communities take part?
Around Diplomacy Nexus.
Bring your expertise to this field.
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