Measuring trust and exposure
Surveys are designed and weighted to estimate trust and news exposure across populations, with question wording and sampling error reported.
GRF · Information Integrity and Public Trust
Social and behavioural science for information integrity and public trust
Social science studies how people form beliefs, trust institutions and act on information. In information integrity it supplies survey, experimental and qualitative evidence on exposure, belief, trust and the effects of interventions, with careful attention to measurement and context.
01Register
Key facts.
Method recordSTEM method
- MethodSocial and behavioural science
- Applied inInformation Integrity and Public Trust
- Data4 inputs
- Checks3 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Application
What social and behavioural science does here.
Social and behavioural science studies how individuals, groups and institutions think, act and organise. It explains vulnerability, risk perception, compliance and collective response to shocks. In information and public trust and society and human development, social science identifies who is exposed and less able to cope, and why warnings are or are not acted upon. It informs equitable design of policies and interventions across interconnected risks. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Testing interventions
Randomised experiments compare labels, prebunking and corrections on belief and sharing, with effect sizes and durations stated.
Qualitative study of information needs
Interviews and focus groups in communities identify what people want to know and whom they trust, before messages are designed.
03Monitor
Survey analysis.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Survey analysis
Information integrity · Social and behavioural science · Run R-9228
Estimates stableGRF · Information Integrity and Public Trust
Estimates
robust standard errors
| Narratives monitored | 0.26 | 0.17 | [−0.1, 0.7] | No |
| Items verified | 0.12 | 0.11 | [−0.1, 0.4] | Yes |
| Median time to correction | 0.54 | 0.16 | [0.1, 0.8] | Yes |
| Trust in authority information | 0.17 | 0.03 | [0.1, 1.0] | No |
Method card
- Method
- Social and behavioural science
- Sample
- 8069 obs
- Design
- stratified, weighted
- Label
- MODELLED
Residuals by group
04Data
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by social and behavioural science on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Data | Role | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Cross-national surveys | Attitudes and use | ESTIMATED |
| Experimental studies | Intervention effects | ESTIMATED |
| Interview and focus group records | Information needs | OBSERVED |
| Electoral and administrative records | Civic outcomes | Published statistics |
05Decision model
What tips a population into acting.
How the share of early movers and the thresholds people hold decide whether a protective behaviour, or a false narrative, stays local or spreads to most people. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.
Controls
- Mean threshold (share of neighbours)
- 18%
- Spread of thresholds
- 8 points
- Early movers
- 2.0% of people
- Contacts per person
- 8
Readouts
- Share who acted in the end
- 100%
- Global cascade
- Yes
- Steps to settle
- 11
Numbers, methods and sources
| Step | Share who have acted (%) |
|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 9.3 |
| 2 | 23.0 |
| 3 | 40.0 |
| 4 | 54.8 |
| 5 | 69.3 |
| 6 | 83.5 |
| 7 | 91.8 |
| 8 | 95.3 |
| 9 | 98.3 |
| 10 | 100.0 |
| 11 | 100.0 |
Methods
- Threshold models of collective behaviour Granovetter (1978), American Journal of Sociology 83
- Global cascades on random networks Watts (2002), PNAS 99
- Complex contagions Centola and Macy (2007), American Journal of Sociology 113
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme's own evidence.
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Information Integrity and Public Trust in Foundry
- Tested at Information Integrity and Public Trust in Universe
- Codified in Governance, Security and Society in Standards
- Published in Information Integrity and Public Trust in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Governance, Policy and International Affairs in Academy
06Validation
How results are checked.
Findings are tested through replication, triangulation of methods and pre-registered designs. Measurement instruments are checked for reliability and validity.
| Check | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Measurement validity | Survey items are checked for what they actually measure |
| External validity | Experimental results are reported with the setting and population they come from |
| Replication | Findings are compared with replications before they inform policy |
Behaviour is context dependent and may change under stress. Self-reported data carry recall and social desirability biases.
07Implementation
From mandate to evaluation, by pillar.
The steps an instrument takes from mandate to evaluation, each with the pillar that runs it, and the decisions that stay with the authority. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.
- Mandate and problem framing Competent authority (outside the programme)
A competent authority frames the problem and the mandate under its own rules. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Evidence and system model Foundry
The system is modelled with its feedbacks, data and stated limits. OECD (2014), principle 2 - Options appraised with scenarios Foundry
Instruments are compared under scenarios, with uncertainty shown. Hood (1983) - Exercise with stakeholders Universe
The options are tested in an exercise with those who would implement and bear them. OECD (2014), principle 3 - Standard or guidance drafted Nexus Standards
What works is codified as a standard or guidance, open to comment. Nexus Standards process - Decision by the authority Competent authority (outside the programme)
The authority decides, outside the programme, with the evidence on record. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Capacity and training Risk Academy
Those who implement are trained on the decided instrument and its data. Sendai Framework (2015), priority 2 - Monitoring and public report Reports
Indicators are published with sources, limits and corrections. OECD (2014), principle 5 - Evaluation and revision Nexus Standards
Results return to the standard and the model: the cycle closes. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)
Methods
- Policy cycle Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press
- Governance of critical risks OECD (2014), Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks
- Layered drawing of directed graphs Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Information Integrity and Public Trust in Foundry
- Tested at Information Integrity and Public Trust in Universe
- Codified in Governance, Security and Society in Standards
- Published in Information Integrity and Public Trust in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Governance, Policy and International Affairs in Academy
09Instruments and commitments
Instruments, mandates and commitments.
The instruments, mandates, actors and accountability arrangements a policymaker, diplomat or development agency works with, citing the agreements that set them. Structures follow the frameworks named. Any state or progress drawn is illustrative, not a record.
Accountability cycle
How commitments on social and behavioural science for information integrity and public trust are held to account, from commitment to correction.
- CommitGovernmentA commitment with a mandate and a legal basis.
- PlanLead agencyA national plan with owners and milestones.
- ResourceMinistry of financeA budget line or financing on record.
- ImplementAgencies and local governmentDelivery against the plan.
- ReportStatistics officeIndicators reported in agreed definitions.
- ReviewLegislature, audit, civil societyIndependent review of results and gaps.
- CorrectGovernmentChanges to the plan, published with reasons.
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction · UNDRRParis Agreement · UNFCCC2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals · United NationsInternational Health Regulations · WHO
10Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Society and Human Development stewards social and behavioural science for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
11Connected
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
12Questions
Questions and answers.
What are the limits of social and behavioural science in this field?
Behaviour is context dependent and may change under stress. Self-reported data carry recall and social desirability biases.
How are results checked?
Findings are tested through replication, triangulation of methods and pre-registered designs. Measurement instruments are checked for reliability and validity.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method's use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
The canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
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