GRF · Foresight Nexus
Foresight Nexus
Strategic foresight, multiple futures, institutional anticipation and long-horizon public learning. Foresight Nexus is an established platform of The Global Risks Forum.
- STEM methods
- 4
- Canonical methods this field applies
- Topics
- 8
- Subject pages in the field
- Counterparts
- 3
- Platforms in shared fields across the network
- Report series
- 2
- Reports series it contributes to
The order things happen in.
- 01QuestionNational, regional or institutional priority
- 02EvidenceSTEM foundation of the platform
- 03BuildFoundry
- 04OrganiseNexus ecosystem
- 05TestUniverse (independent site)
- 06PublishReports
- 07DecideCompetent authorities and institutions, through NXS-RLS (participants, agreements and handoffs)
- 08RenewCorrections and the next annual agenda
How work moves in this field.
A question becomes evidence, a governed build, an organised community, a controlled test, a reviewed publication and, finally, a decision taken by the competent authority under its own rules.
- Question Universe National, regional or institutional priority. Question in Foresight Nexus
- Evidence Foundry STEM foundation of the platform. Evidence in Foresight Nexus
- Build Foundry Foundry. Build in Foresight Nexus
- Organise Universe Nexus ecosystem. Organise in Foresight Nexus
- Test Universe Universe (independent site). Test in Foresight Nexus
- Publish Reports Reports. Publish in Foresight Nexus
- Decide Competent authority Competent authorities and institutions, through NXS-RLS. Decide in Foresight Nexus
- Renew Universe Corrections and the next annual agenda. Renew in Foresight Nexus
Each step of the cycle in the pillar it runs in; the decision stays with the competent authority, outside the programme.
- Labs
- Foundry
- Universe
- Nexus Standards
- Reports
- Risk Academy
- Competent authority (outside the programme)
Horizon scanning board.
The screen a team would use to follow this field: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Horizon scanning board
Horizon 2040 · Round 5
Signals
| Insurers exit high-risk postcodes | Finance | Medium | High | Protection retreat |
| Cheap sensors in informal settlements | Technology | High | Medium | Citizen data |
| Heat limits outdoor work hours | Labour | Medium | High | Heat economy |
| Synthetic media in elections | Information | Low | High | Trust erosion |
Driver ranking
impact vs uncertainty
Scenario axes
- Axis 1
- cooperation · fragmentation
- Axis 2
- slow · fast technological change
- Scenarios
- four narratives, not forecasts
- Use
- wind tunnel policies against each
The questions this field works on.
Horizon scanning
Signals, emergence and source quality.
TopicStrategic scenarios
Plausible alternative futures.
TopicDeep uncertainty
Methods when probabilities are contested.
TopicTechnology futures
Emerging and converging technology.
TopicGeopolitical futures
Political economy and strategic shocks.
TopicDemographic and social futures
Ageing, migration, trust and cohesion.
TopicFuture generations
Long-term public value and stewardship.
TopicForesight in decisions
Scenario-informed policy, not predictions.
Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information.
Three families of instruments side by side against the baseline, each with its own lag and adoption speed, under the coverage and compliance you set; effect sizes are teaching values to replace with evidence. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast. The map on this page shows The Arctic; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Baseline trend of the outcome
- 2.0% a year
- Coverage of the instrument
- 70%
- Compliance
- 75%
- Effect size, against the teaching value
- 100%
- Years ahead
- 20 years
Readouts
- Largest reduction at the horizon
- Regulation
- Its reduction against the baseline
- 21%
Numbers, methods and sources
| Year | Baseline | Regulation | Economic incentive | Information and capacity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100.0 | 99.5 | 98.8 | 99.1 |
| 1 | 102.0 | 101.2 | 100.1 | 99.8 |
| 2 | 104.0 | 102.5 | 101.1 | 99.9 |
| 3 | 106.1 | 103.5 | 101.6 | 100.0 |
| 4 | 108.2 | 103.7 | 101.8 | 100.7 |
| 5 | 110.4 | 103.2 | 101.7 | 102.1 |
| 6 | 112.6 | 102.0 | 101.6 | 103.9 |
| 7 | 114.9 | 100.4 | 101.6 | 105.9 |
| 8 | 117.2 | 99.2 | 102.1 | 108.0 |
| 9 | 119.5 | 98.6 | 102.9 | 110.1 |
| 10 | 121.9 | 98.9 | 104.2 | 112.3 |
| 11 | 124.3 | 99.7 | 105.7 | 114.5 |
| 12 | 126.8 | 101.1 | 107.4 | 116.8 |
| 13 | 129.4 | 102.7 | 109.4 | 119.2 |
| 14 | 131.9 | 104.5 | 111.4 | 121.6 |
| 15 | 134.6 | 106.5 | 113.5 | 124.0 |
| 16 | 137.3 | 108.5 | 115.7 | 126.5 |
| 17 | 140.0 | 110.7 | 118.0 | 129.0 |
| 18 | 142.8 | 112.9 | 120.4 | 131.6 |
| 19 | 145.7 | 115.1 | 122.8 | 134.2 |
| 20 | 148.6 | 117.4 | 125.2 | 136.9 |
Methods
- Tools of government Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan
- Carrots, sticks and sermons Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction
- Diffusion of innovations Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Borders Natural Earth
- Cities Natural Earth
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Foresight Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Foresight Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Systemic Risks in Standards
- Published in Foresight Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Risk Science and Methods in Academy
Institutions are built for the present.
Most public and private institutions plan on the assumption that the future will resemble the recent past. Budgets run for a year, electoral cycles for a few, and many risk registers extrapolate from historical data. Yet the risks that cause the greatest damage are often those that break with the past: a novel pathogen, a technology that changes an industry within a decade, a geopolitical rupture, a slow demographic shift that reaches a tipping point. Hindsight reviews of major crises repeatedly find that warning signals existed but were not connected to decisions.
Foresight is the discipline that addresses this gap. It does not try to predict a single future. It explores a range of plausible futures, identifies the forces that would drive each, and asks what an institution should do now to be ready for several of them. Its methods include horizon scanning for weak signals, scenario development, expert elicitation and stress testing of strategies against futures that differ sharply from the plan.
Failures of anticipation cascade because systems are coupled. When one institution is surprised, its partners, suppliers and the public are surprised with it. Shared foresight, developed across institutions, helps a system notice change together and agree on the questions that matter before a crisis forces them. It also spreads the cost of looking ahead, which few institutions can carry alone.
Why now: the Declaration on Future Generations, adopted with the Pact for the Future (2024), asks states to use foresight in policy, and several governments now publish regular foresight reports. Foresight Nexus builds the scenarios that Universe exercises test, and its reviewed outlooks are designed to contribute to the Foresight Outlook series of Reports, always labelled as scenarios rather than forecasts.
From mandate to evaluation, by pillar.
The steps an instrument takes from mandate to evaluation, each with the pillar that runs it, and the decisions that stay with the authority. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Arctic; the model itself is not tied to a place.
- Mandate and problem framing Competent authority (outside the programme)
A competent authority frames the problem and the mandate under its own rules. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Evidence and system model Foundry
The system is modelled with its feedbacks, data and stated limits. OECD (2014), principle 2 - Options appraised with scenarios Foundry
Instruments are compared under scenarios, with uncertainty shown. Hood (1983) - Exercise with stakeholders Universe
The options are tested in an exercise with those who would implement and bear them. OECD (2014), principle 3 - Standard or guidance drafted Nexus Standards
What works is codified as a standard or guidance, open to comment. Nexus Standards process - Decision by the authority Competent authority (outside the programme)
The authority decides, outside the programme, with the evidence on record. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Capacity and training Risk Academy
Those who implement are trained on the decided instrument and its data. Sendai Framework (2015), priority 2 - Monitoring and public report Reports
Indicators are published with sources, limits and corrections. OECD (2014), principle 5 - Evaluation and revision Nexus Standards
Results return to the standard and the model: the cycle closes. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)
Methods
- Policy cycle Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press
- Governance of critical risks OECD (2014), Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks
- Layered drawing of directed graphs Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Foresight Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Foresight Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Systemic Risks in Standards
- Published in Foresight Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Risk Science and Methods in Academy
What Foresight Nexus does.
Strategic foresight is a structured way of exploring plausible futures to inform present decisions, without predicting which one will happen. Foresight Nexus, Global Risks Forum’s platform for it, covers horizon scanning, scenarios, deep uncertainty, technology, geopolitical, demographic and social futures, the interests of future generations and how foresight reaches decisions.
Its community
Foresight practitioners; strategists; policymakers; scenario designers.
Its outputs
Foresight outlooks; signal reviews; scenario learning protocols.
Exercise a cascade in Foresight Nexus with the people who decide.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Future generations and long-term risk: the hazards it names, the systems and communities that carry the loss, the controls and institutions that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating event and step through the cascade to see where mandates meet and which decisions fall to whom. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise for dialogue, not a forecast, an assessment or a position. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Nuclear war
- Dam failure
- Financial contagion
- Cryptographically relevant quantum computer
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Nuclear detonation (set off downstream)
- Health-system overload (set off downstream)
- Data breach (set off downstream)
- Mass account takeover (set off downstream)
- Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
- Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)
- Currency crisis (set off downstream)
- Nuclear winter (set off downstream)
- High-altitude electromagnetic pulse (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-13Standards development process (open proposals, review, versioning, adoption)NRS-U12Universe platform profile: Foresight NexusNRS-H26Hazard family: Land and wetland degradation (NHS-1 eco.land)NRS-H92Hazard family: Ageing and degraded infrastructure (NHS-1 infra.ageing)NRS-P4Foresight, horizon scanning and strategyNRS-H11Hazard family: Coastal and sea-level hazards (NHS-1 water.coastal)NRS-H31Hazard family: Persistent and bioaccumulative substances (NHS-1 poll.persistent)
Observation
- Our World in Data datasets (listed for reference)
- CMIP6 climate projections (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
- Number of countries with mechanisms in place to enhance policy coherence of sustainable development
Example geography
- Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
A forum for anticipation.
Foresight Nexus is designed for foresight practitioners, strategists, policymakers and scenario designers in public bodies, companies, research institutions and civil society.
Foresight outlooks
Periodic syntheses of the forces shaping long-horizon risk, with their uncertainties stated, designed for the Foresight Outlook report series.
Signal reviews
Structured reviews of emerging signals, assessed for source quality and relevance, discussed in convened sessions.
Scenario learning protocols
Methods for using scenarios in institutional dialogue and exercises, so that lessons are recorded and reused.
GRF convenes and governs programmes. It does not regulate, finance, procure or certify, and hosting or sponsorship confers no authority over findings.
How Foresight Nexus is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.
The instruments, mandates, actors and accountability arrangements a policymaker, diplomat or development agency works with, citing the agreements that set them. Structures follow the frameworks named. Any state or progress drawn is illustrative, not a record.
Policy instrument matrix
The kinds of instrument available on Foresight Nexus, by level of government and cooperation.
| Instrument type | Local | National | Regional | Global |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory | Zoning, building codes | Laws, standards, licensing | Harmonised rules | Conventions and treaties |
| Economic | Local levies, grants | Budget lines, taxes, insurance schemes | Risk pools, regional funds | Financing mechanisms |
| Information | Local warnings | Disclosure, early warning, statistics | Data sharing arrangements | Global monitoring and reporting |
| Institutional | Local committees | Lead agencies, coordination councils | Regional bodies and secretariats | Multilateral mandates |
| Cooperative | Community agreements | Partnership compacts | Memoranda and joint programmes | Agreements and joint commitments |
Mandates and agreements over time
The agreements that set mandates and commitments on Foresight Nexus, from adoption to their current horizon.
- 20152030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development GoalsUnited Nations
- 2030Horizon of the 2030 Agenda and the Sendai FrameworkUnited Nations
Methods from the STEM Commons, partners across the Consortium.
Foresight Nexus draws on four methods described in the STEM Commons: scenario design and stress testing, forecasting and time-series analysis, complex systems and agent-based modelling and decision analysis under uncertainty. Each is described with its assumptions on the STEM foundation of Foresight Nexus. Inside Foundry it works with the NXS-DSS (decision cases and deliberation) and NXS-LAB (research, experiments and simulations) systems, and its work is designed for the Foresight Outlook and Scenario and Stress-Test report series.
GRF governs the annual Universe programme, in which Foresight Nexus is designed to lead the edition horizon scan that frames each year’s agenda.
Its counterparts bring other mandates to the same questions: Systemic Risk Management at The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) and Systems Science and Modelling at The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) at The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) develop the science of systemic risk and modelling, and Financial Stability at Global Risks Alliance (GRA) at Global Risks Alliance (GRA) builds shared industry understanding of how long-horizon shocks reach the financial system. All are listed on counterparts across the Consortium.
Climate signals in the Arctic.
Daytime surface heat, rain, marine heat and population density over the Arctic, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 4
Climate signals, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- GPM IMERG (NASA GES DISC)
- Provider
- NASA GES DISC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite estimate, near real time
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite estimate, near real time. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- GHRSST MUR25 (NASA JPL PO.DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA JPL PO.DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite analysis
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite analysis of how far sea temperature departs from its usual value for the date shown; a marine heat indicator, not a coral bleaching alert.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE FIRMS
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Climate signals, framed on the Arctic.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA AIRS · U.S. Geological SurveySources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA AIRS. We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (22 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
- Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
The areas of foresight this platform takes on.
Foresight Nexus studies how institutions think about the future and act on what they find: horizon scanning, scenarios, deep uncertainty, technology and geopolitical futures, demographic and social change, the interests of future generations and the use of foresight in decisions. Written from Global Risks Forum’s view of governance and institutional dialogue, its pages set out the methods, the sources, the mandates that hold decisions and the limits of each practice. Foresight explores plausible futures; it does not predict them.
Signals and emergence
Horizon scanning for weak signals, emerging issues and discontinuities, with source quality and the route from signal to agenda kept visible.
Scenarios and pathways
Exploratory and normative scenarios, their design standards and their use to test strategies, plans and institutions against plausible alternative futures.
Deep uncertainty
Decision methods for conditions where probabilities are contested: robustness, adaptive pathways, signposts and the rules that trigger a change of course.
Technology futures
Emerging and converging technologies, their trajectories, their governance gaps and the institutions that anticipate them before they are locked in.
Geopolitical futures
Political economy, alliances, trade, conflict and strategic shocks, examined through scenarios and structured judgement rather than single forecasts.
Demographic and social futures
Ageing, migration, urbanisation, trust and cohesion: slow variables that shape every other future and change the work of public institutions.
Future generations
Long-term public value, intergenerational fairness and the statutory duties, commissioners and parliamentary committees that represent those not yet born.
Anticipatory governance
How cabinets, ministries, central banks, regulators and parliaments build foresight into strategy, budgets, risk assessment and law.
Built on named science, technology, engineering and mathematics.
Every claim on Foresight Nexus rests on methods with a canonical page in the STEM Commons, so readers can see what a finding depends on and where its limits lie.
How this works across the six pillars.
Foresight Nexus works through six pillars of one annual programme, led by the Nexus Consortium, with GCRI, GRF and GRA each contributing in its role: explore, experiment and prototype in Labs, build, simulate and prepare in Foundry, convene and test in Universe, codify, correct and apply in Nexus Standards, publish in every format in Reports, teach in the open in Risk Academy.
handoff in playrecorded handoffno direct handoff
Programme yearAll phases
Route
The whole programme
Every pillar hands its work to another; together they close the year’s feedback loops.
L · F · U · S · R · A
- Pillars
- 6 of 6
- Handoffs
- 18 of 18
- Loops
- 17 closed
Handoffs in play
- F01Universe → Foundry · Admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision caseReadiness preparation
- F02Foundry → Universe · Core Build Report and go or no-go evidenceControlled build
- F03Foundry → Reports · Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profileCloseout
- F04Universe → Reports · After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13After-action review
and 14 more
- LabsWhere questions become experiments and prototypes: new methods, data and tools are tried in the open, with their limits on record, before the Foundry builds them, under the Nexus Consortium.Labs
- FoundryWhere the evidence behind a mandate or commitment is built, with its owner and limits on record.Foresight Nexus in FoundryFoundry
- UniverseWhere mandates become missions: GRF records each gate, convenes the parties and keeps implementation accountable.Foresight Nexus in Universeuniverse.nexus
- Nexus StandardsWhere shared rules are agreed in the open; each jurisdiction decides adoption, and no global body holds a veto.Systemic Risks in Standardsnexustandards.com
- ReportsWhere governance analysis and the year’s results are published, so commitments can be followed and checked.Foresight Nexus in ReportsReports
- Risk AcademyWhere policymakers, diplomats and agency staff learn the programme roles and decision-making on the record, on Risk Academy.Faculty of Risk Science and Methods in Academyrisksacademy.com
What the work is read against.
The platform does not set standards. It reads its evidence against the frameworks that competent bodies have adopted, so a finding can be placed where a decision-maker already works.
| Framework or standard | Body | What it sets |
|---|---|---|
| OECD Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy | OECD Strategic Foresight Unit | A staged method for exploring disruptions, building scenarios and stress-testing policy, with guidance on anticipatory governance at the centre of government |
| Our Common Agenda, the Pact for the Future and the Declaration on Future Generations | United Nations, with the UN Futures Lab | Commitments to strengthen foresight across the UN system and principles for considering future generations in present decisions |
| Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction | UNDRR | Priorities for understanding and governing disaster risk, including systemic and emerging risk, and the forward-looking assessment it asks of states |
| IRGC Guidelines for Emerging Risk Governance | International Risk Governance Center, EPFL | A protocol for detecting, framing and responding to emerging risks, with attention to the contextual factors that amplify or attenuate them |
| ISO 31000 Risk management guidelines | International Organization for Standardization | Principles, framework and process for managing risk, defined as the effect of uncertainty on objectives |
| ISO 31050 Guidelines for managing an emerging risk to enhance resilience | International Organization for Standardization | Guidance on identifying, assessing and managing emerging risks where knowledge is incomplete and data are scarce |
| The Futures Toolkit | UK Government Office for Science | Tools for horizon scanning, driver mapping, scenarios, visioning and policy stress-testing inside government |
| Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the scenario framework assessed by the IPCC | Scenario research community, assessed by the IPCC | Common narratives and quantified pathways for population, economy and emissions that make scenario studies comparable |
| Delphi method practice and the CREDES reporting guidance | RAND Corporation (origin); CREDES guidance by Jünger and colleagues | Standards for panel selection, rounds, feedback, the definition of consensus and transparent reporting of Delphi expert elicitation |
| OECD Recommendation on the Governance of Critical Risks | OECD | A whole-of-society approach to anticipating, assessing and governing critical risks, including foresight and national risk assessment |
The same field, seen three ways.
GCRI studies a field as science, GRF governs it and GRA builds shared financial understanding of it. Foresight Nexus links to its counterparts so that work on one side is visible on the others.
Pages in Foresight Nexus.
Mandate, publisher and status
PageDiscipline and institutional issues
PageResearch and institutional knowledge
PageProfessional practice
PageDialogues and cooperation
PageProgrammes and projects
PageAnnual programme contribution
PageSpecialist and institutional community
PageLeadership and skills
PageConvenings and dialogues
PagePublished findings
PageParticipate
PageInstitutional contact
PageTransparency, rights and safeguards
PageSTEM foundation of Foresight Nexus
PageHow work moves in this field
PageBuild in Foundry
PageTest in Universe
PagePublish in Reports
PageThe same field across the Consortium
PageTopics
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
Questions and answers.
Who publishes Foresight Nexus?
Is Foresight Nexus active?
How can I contribute?
Where are findings published?
Which values on this platform are real?
How do I report an error?
Does Foresight Nexus predict the future?
Who takes part?
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- EmailGateway GW-GRFSend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGlobal Risks ForumSee every way to contributeThe contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
How Foresight Nexus works.
Choose a view and press Play to follow the platform’s process, its programme year, the standards it applies and how its findings are published. The outline shows how the work is designed to run, not the status of any decision.
Foresight Nexus
How Foresight Nexus works
Platforms · Programme year · Standards · Reports
A platform joins a field to named methods, labelled evidence and the outputs it publishes, without becoming the authority it serves.
01 Scope
- 01Field and familiesStart · The platform leadThe home states the field, its families and who it serves.
- 02Topic dossiersRecord · Platform authorsTopics explain the subject with labelled evidence.
02 Evidence
- 03Evidence labelsRecord · GCRIEach value is labelled: observed, published statistics, estimated, modelled, scenario or unknown.
- 04MethodsStep · Method ownersMethods come from the STEM Commons, each with one canonical page.
03 Work
- 05Scenarios on the systemsModel · Foundry pillarScenarios run on the Nexus systems, labelled as scenario.
- 06Standards that applyRecord · Nexus StandardsThe platform names the standards that apply. A validator report is evidence for review.
04 Publish
- 07EditionsRecord · ReportsFindings are published through Reports with their limits.
- 08Authority decidesOutcome · The competent authorityDecisions and execution stay with the government, operator or licensed institution.
Foresight Nexus home · Platforms · Shared methodsAn outline of how the work is designed to run; it does not report the status of any decision or record.
Take part in Foresight Nexus.
Start from who you are. Answer an open call. Or form and lead a competence cell on the Foresight Nexus platform.
National institutions
Ministries, statistics offices and agencies: a national desk and chapter, and a seat in the working groups. National chapters
Sectors and professions
Operators, regulators, banks, insurers and professional bodies whose work touches Foresight Nexus. Participate
Learning
Courses and practice, with a record of every course completed. Free to study. Open learning
Standards
Draft, review and adopt the methods and data standards with the working groups. Working groups
Communities and research
Universities, civil society and individual experts: projects, data and review. Write to the team
| Open call | Seeks | Closes |
|---|---|---|
| Founding call for experts to the working groups CALL-FOUNDING-EXPERTS | expert, editor, chair | 2026-12-15 |
| Open nomination for the three independent expert seats of the Global Standards Council CALL-GSC-IND | council-member | 2026-12-01 |
| Nominations of interim regional members (applies only if the transitional provision is decided) CALL-GSC-REG | council-member | 2026-12-15 |
| Review of the wave-1 risk core outlines (C1, C2, C3, C4, C8, C10, C11) CALL-REVIEW-WAVE1 | contributor | 2027-01-31 |
| Experts for the core standards of risk science: uncertainty and evidence grading, scales, structured expert judgement, tolerability, extremes and compound events, catastrophic and existential risk, ethics and equity, units and measurement (NRS-C17 to NRS-C24) CALL-CORE-SCIENCE | expert, editor, chair | 2027-01-31 |
| Independent reviewers for the families of the hazard atlas, three from at least two regions for each family (NHS2-R19), priority families first CALL-ATLAS-REVIEW | expert | 2027-03-31 |
| Members of the interim Frontier Safety Review Panel and red-team reviewers (biosafety and biosecurity, AI safety and security, critical-infrastructure security); applications treated in confidence CALL-FRONTIER-SAFETY-REVIEW | expert | 2026-11-30 |
| Experts in ontology, metrology, software verification and conformity assessment for the requirement register, the NHS-2 machine representation, the conformance test suites and the conformity assessment scheme CALL-CONFORMANCE-ONTOLOGY | expert, editor | 2027-01-31 |
Calls past their closing date are hidden automatically. Every call, proposal and route: open areas and calls.
Gather the cell
Bring together three to seven people with complementary skills: data, field practice, policy and communication.
Register it
Write to the team with the cell’s name, members, area and region. You receive a reference and a contact. Write to the team
Choose a charter
Pick one focus: research and evidence, data and maps, standards review, or community preparedness.
Learn together
Follow shared study paths at Risk Academy, with practice and a record of every course completed. Hazards and resilience
Lead and report
Hold regular sessions. Publish what the cell learns through Reports. Bring findings to the working groups. Working groups
What a national team or a local community can do on The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX) today.
Your country’s profile
Open risk profiles for 195 countries, with sources and licences on every value. Open the Index
Correct or reply
Correct a value or reply for your country. The change is logged with its effect. Open the Index
Offer data
Offer a dataset. It enters through the licence gate, with your credit. Open the Index
Every figure on this page is indexed: climate, hazards, environment, The Arctic.
The Index is the Consortium’s indexing system for risk data. Every indicator, hazard, series and country profile carries its Nexus Standards identifier, its source and its licence, so what this page shows can be traced, corrected and reused.
- 01 · Sources205 registered sourcesEvery value keeps its source and licence; withheld values are counted.Data and licences
- 02 · Nexus StandardsNIS-1 and NHS-1451 indicators, 905 hazards; every record carries a UNI.Nexus Standards
- 03 · The Index54 series, 195 country profilesComputed on the standards; no value is published until an edition is released.The Global Risks Index
- 04 · This pageForesight NexusMaps, figures and feeds read the Index in the context of climate, hazards, environment and The Arctic.Public API
Series in this context climate, hazards, environment
- GSGlobal ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100.NXS-GRX-AR-000065Climate · Hazards · Environment
- GSGlobal WaterAccess, scarcity, quality, floods and droughts, groundwater depletion, transboundary dependency and the couplings of water to energy, food, health and nature.NXS-GRX-AR-000059Hazards · Climate · Energy
- GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap…NXS-GRX-AR-000002Hazards · Climate · Energy
- GSGlobal Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) depends on.NXS-GRX-AR-000070Hazards · Climate · Environment
Country profiles The Arctic
Every country profile carries the source and licence of each value. Correct a value or reply
Hazard domains NHS-1
- Atmosphere and weatherNXS-GRX-AR-000135
- Ice and snowNXS-GRX-AR-000137
- Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tippingNXS-GRX-AR-000141
Geodata and API open
Open layers on an equal-area hexagon grid, shown as densities per km² or as symbols: People · GHSL 2025People · WorldPop 2025Built-up areaPortsAirportsRoadsRailwaysRivers and lake centrelines
/api/v1/public/grix · https://nexustandards.com/uni/{uni}
Developers · Data · Made with Natural Earth, Public domain; GHSL and WorldPop, CC BY 4.0
Snapshot of the Index registries pinned 2026-10-23 · 22c6eed. Research and risk-analytics information: not a rating, an official classification, a warning, a benchmark or advice.
Bring a governance question to the Forum.
Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
Legal documents.
Show all 18 legal documents
Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.