GRF · Diplomacy Nexus
Diplomacy Nexus
Scientific, policy and institutional dialogue across jurisdictions and shared global concerns. Diplomacy Nexus is an established platform of The Global Risks Forum.
- STEM methods
- 4
- Canonical methods this field applies
- Topics
- 9
- Subject pages in the field
- Counterparts
- 13
- Platforms in shared fields across the network
- Report series
- 2
- Reports series it contributes to
The areas of diplomacy and cooperation this platform takes on.
Diplomacy Nexus studies how states, institutions and scientific communities govern shared risks across borders: rivers and aquifers, the climate system, the oceans and other commons, conflict, technology, humanitarian access and human mobility. Its pages read each field through mandates, agreements and institutional dialogue: what the law requires, which bodies hold authority, how evidence enters negotiation and how cooperation is recorded. Indicators are named with their units and sources, never with values, and every decision belongs to the institution that holds it.
Science diplomacy
Scientific cooperation, joint fact-finding and intergovernmental assessment as channels between states, and the diplomacy that makes research cooperation possible.
Shared water and energy
Transboundary rivers, aquifers and power systems: allocation, notification, data exchange, benefit sharing and the basin institutions that hold them together.
Climate and nature negotiation
The UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, the biodiversity and ozone regimes: pledges, transparency, stocktakes and texts negotiated by consensus.
Peace and human security
Peaceful settlement under the UN Charter, environmental peacebuilding and conflict-sensitive dialogue where resource stress meets fragile institutions.
Technology governance
Norms, standards, export controls, spectrum and orbit allocation for technologies that cross borders faster than the rules that govern them.
Humanitarian cooperation
Access, consent, humanitarian principles, disaster law and sanctions exemptions that let relief reach people in conflict and disaster.
Global commons
The high seas and the deep seabed, the atmosphere, Antarctica and outer space, governed by treaty regimes beyond national jurisdiction.
Mobility and displacement
Refugee, human rights and regional law, the global compacts and mobility arrangements for people displaced by conflict, disaster and climate change.
Negotiation track desk.
The screen a team would use to follow this field: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Negotiation track desk
Shared basin dialogue · Round 7
Track
- Conveneparties
- Fact-findingjoint
- Optionsshared
- Draft textbrackets
- Agreementparties decide
- Implementmonitor
Draft text, articles
| Art. 3 | Data exchange | 1 | Agreed ad ref |
| Art. 5 | Low-flow sharing | 9 | Open |
| Art. 7 | Notification of works | 2 | Open |
| Art. 9 | Dispute avoidance | 3 | Not discussed |
Facilitator note
- Next round
- week 12
- Format
- closed, non-attribution
- Decision
- parties only
- GRF role
- convenes, records
The questions this field works on.
Science diplomacy
International scientific cooperation methods.
TopicShared water and energy systems
Cross-border resource dialogue.
TopicClimate and nature diplomacy
Global environmental cooperation.
TopicPeace and human security
Conflict-sensitive and peace-related risk dialogue.
TopicTechnology diplomacy
International technology governance conversations.
TopicHumanitarian cooperation
Humanitarian safeguards and institutional roles.
TopicRegional dialogue methods
Trust, mandates and shared work.
TopicGlobal commons
Oceans, atmosphere, polar and other commons.
TopicMigration and displacement
Institutional cooperation and conflict-sensitive human mobility.
Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information.
Three families of instruments side by side against the baseline, each with its own lag and adoption speed, under the coverage and compliance you set; effect sizes are teaching values to replace with evidence. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast. The map on this page shows The Tigris and Euphrates Basin; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Baseline trend of the outcome
- 2.0% a year
- Coverage of the instrument
- 70%
- Compliance
- 75%
- Effect size, against the teaching value
- 100%
- Years ahead
- 20 years
Readouts
- Largest reduction at the horizon
- Regulation
- Its reduction against the baseline
- 21%
Numbers, methods and sources
| Year | Baseline | Regulation | Economic incentive | Information and capacity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100.0 | 99.5 | 98.8 | 99.1 |
| 1 | 102.0 | 101.2 | 100.1 | 99.8 |
| 2 | 104.0 | 102.5 | 101.1 | 99.9 |
| 3 | 106.1 | 103.5 | 101.6 | 100.0 |
| 4 | 108.2 | 103.7 | 101.8 | 100.7 |
| 5 | 110.4 | 103.2 | 101.7 | 102.1 |
| 6 | 112.6 | 102.0 | 101.6 | 103.9 |
| 7 | 114.9 | 100.4 | 101.6 | 105.9 |
| 8 | 117.2 | 99.2 | 102.1 | 108.0 |
| 9 | 119.5 | 98.6 | 102.9 | 110.1 |
| 10 | 121.9 | 98.9 | 104.2 | 112.3 |
| 11 | 124.3 | 99.7 | 105.7 | 114.5 |
| 12 | 126.8 | 101.1 | 107.4 | 116.8 |
| 13 | 129.4 | 102.7 | 109.4 | 119.2 |
| 14 | 131.9 | 104.5 | 111.4 | 121.6 |
| 15 | 134.6 | 106.5 | 113.5 | 124.0 |
| 16 | 137.3 | 108.5 | 115.7 | 126.5 |
| 17 | 140.0 | 110.7 | 118.0 | 129.0 |
| 18 | 142.8 | 112.9 | 120.4 | 131.6 |
| 19 | 145.7 | 115.1 | 122.8 | 134.2 |
| 20 | 148.6 | 117.4 | 125.2 | 136.9 |
Methods
- Tools of government Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan
- Carrots, sticks and sermons Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction
- Diffusion of innovations Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Borders Natural Earth
- Cities Natural Earth
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Diplomacy Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Diplomacy Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Foundations and Governance in Standards
- Published in Diplomacy Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Governance, Policy and International Affairs in Academy
The field as a coupled system.
How stress moves through the field under different scenarios. Real geography, example values.
Fig. 01Where stress concentrates across the Diplomacy Nexus field. Illustrative levels, not results.
A shared basin in a normal season
The joint body meets on schedule, data flow under the agreement and notifications are acknowledged. This is the reference state against which every later change in the dialogue is read.
Scarcity tests the allocation clauses
Low flow makes fixed shares hard to deliver. Downstream ministries ask for releases, upstream operators protect storage, and the drought and consultation clauses decide whether talks stay technical or turn political.
Warnings must cross the border in time
A flood wave from upstream needs data and warnings shared within hours. Afterwards the joint body reviews what was notified, when, and how release decisions were communicated to the other side.
Levels in the figure are examples in a design, not findings. A programme replaces them with labelled evidence it owns.
From mandate to evaluation, by pillar.
The steps an instrument takes from mandate to evaluation, each with the pillar that runs it, and the decisions that stay with the authority. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Tigris and Euphrates Basin; the model itself is not tied to a place.
- Mandate and problem framing Competent authority (outside the programme)
A competent authority frames the problem and the mandate under its own rules. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Evidence and system model Foundry
The system is modelled with its feedbacks, data and stated limits. OECD (2014), principle 2 - Options appraised with scenarios Foundry
Instruments are compared under scenarios, with uncertainty shown. Hood (1983) - Exercise with stakeholders Universe
The options are tested in an exercise with those who would implement and bear them. OECD (2014), principle 3 - Standard or guidance drafted Nexus Standards
What works is codified as a standard or guidance, open to comment. Nexus Standards process - Decision by the authority Competent authority (outside the programme)
The authority decides, outside the programme, with the evidence on record. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Capacity and training Risk Academy
Those who implement are trained on the decided instrument and its data. Sendai Framework (2015), priority 2 - Monitoring and public report Reports
Indicators are published with sources, limits and corrections. OECD (2014), principle 5 - Evaluation and revision Nexus Standards
Results return to the standard and the model: the cycle closes. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)
Methods
- Policy cycle Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press
- Governance of critical risks OECD (2014), Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks
- Layered drawing of directed graphs Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Diplomacy Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Diplomacy Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Foundations and Governance in Standards
- Published in Diplomacy Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Governance, Policy and International Affairs in Academy
What Diplomacy Nexus does.
Science diplomacy is the use of scientific cooperation and shared evidence in relations between states, and of diplomacy to make scientific cooperation possible. Diplomacy Nexus, Global Risks Forum’s platform on cooperation across borders, studies how states govern shared rivers, climate and nature, conflict, technology, humanitarian access, the global commons and human mobility; it does not mediate or represent any state.
Its community
International affairs scholars; public institutions; policy diplomats; research networks.
Its methods
Comparative institutional dialogue; science diplomacy; cooperation design.
Its outputs
Transboundary dialogue records; science diplomacy guides.
Exercise a cascade in Diplomacy Nexus with the people who decide.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Geopolitical and security risk: the hazards it names, the systems and communities that carry the loss, the controls and institutions that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating event and step through the cascade to see where mandates meet and which decisions fall to whom. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise for dialogue, not a forecast, an assessment or a position. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Interstate war
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Attacks on critical infrastructure (set off downstream)
- Explosive remnants and landmines (set off downstream)
- Conflict-related environmental damage (set off downstream)
- Trade restriction or embargo (set off downstream)
- Commodity price shock (set off downstream)
- Satellite-navigation disruption (set off downstream)
- Acute food crisis (set off downstream)
- Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage (set off downstream)
- Nuclear facility in an armed conflict (set off downstream)
- Chokepoint blockage (set off downstream)
- Post-disaster traumatic stress (set off downstream)
- Nuclear plant accident (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NRS-P8Security, terrorism and geopolitical riskNRS-H60Hazard family: Supply-chain and flow disruption (NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)NRS-H62Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)NRS-H31Hazard family: Persistent and bioaccumulative substances (NHS-1 poll.persistent)NRS-H41Hazard family: Animal-to-human spillover (NHS-1 health.zoonotic)NRS-H59Hazard family: Economic shocks and governance failure (NHS-1 soc.economic)
Observation
- Geopolitical Risk Index (Caldara and Iacoviello) (listed for reference)
- UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset and Candidate Events (listed for reference)
- GDELT event database and global knowledge graph (listed for reference)
- Worldwide Governance Indicators (listed for reference)
- Conflict-related deaths per 100,000 population
Example geography
- The Horn of Africa: 253 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
Shared risks cross borders faster than institutions can cooperate.
Many of the risks the Nexus Consortium studies are transboundary by nature. Rivers flow through several countries, and a dam or a drought upstream changes what is available downstream. Fish stocks, pollution and storms move across maritime boundaries. Greenhouse gases mix in a single atmosphere. Pathogens, information and financial shocks travel along the same networks that connect economies. When one jurisdiction acts alone, the costs and benefits fall partly on others.
Political science and game theory explain why cooperation on such problems is hard. Each party may gain from a shared agreement but gain more by letting others bear the cost, the classic collective action problem. Information is unequal and contested; trust is limited; and institutions designed for one era struggle with problems that are faster, more technical and more interconnected. Science can clarify the physical facts, but it does not by itself settle questions of fairness, priority or responsibility.
When cooperation fails, risks cascade. A dispute over water allocation during drought can affect food production, energy supply and migration. Weak coordination during a disaster can delay assistance. Unmanaged competition in new technologies can create security risks for all. Cooperation is therefore part of risk management, not separate from it.
Why now: the agreement on marine biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction entered into force in January 2026, and the International Court of Justice gave its advisory opinion on states’ climate obligations in July 2025; both raise practical questions about how institutions in different jurisdictions share evidence. Diplomacy Nexus convenes that exchange, and reviewed dialogue records can inform the Regional Systems series of Reports.
Who a decision on Diplomacy Nexus reaches.
The sectors a policy on Diplomacy Nexus has to coordinate: a choice in one ministry lands in the others.
Signature
Water and its partners
Water gives irrigation to food (0.8), cooling water and hydropower to energy (0.6) and environmental flows to biodiversity (0.6).
W · E · I · F · H · B
- Sectors
- 4 of 6
- Relations
- 6 of 15
- Coupling
- 0.43 share of total
Strongest relations in play
- Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
- Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
- Water → Food · irrigation0.8
- Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
Convening structured dialogue between science, policy and institutions.
Diplomacy Nexus is designed to convene and record dialogue that helps institutions understand each other’s evidence, mandates and constraints. It does not negotiate on anyone’s behalf.
Comparative institutional dialogue
Structured exchanges in which institutions explain their mandates, evidence and limits to one another.
Science diplomacy
Using shared scientific work to build understanding across jurisdictions. See science diplomacy.
Cooperation design
Studying how mandates, rules and trust make shared work possible. See regional dialogue methods.
Signature outputs are designed to include transboundary dialogue records and science diplomacy guides, each published with its participants’ consent and its limits.
How Diplomacy Nexus is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.
The instruments, mandates, actors and accountability arrangements a policymaker, diplomat or development agency works with, citing the agreements that set them. Structures follow the frameworks named. Any state or progress drawn is illustrative, not a record.
Mandates and agreements over time
The agreements that set mandates and commitments on Diplomacy Nexus, from adoption to their current horizon.
- 1992UNFCCC and Convention on Biological DiversityUnited Nations
- 2015Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk ReductionUNDRR
- 20152030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development GoalsUnited Nations
- 2015Paris AgreementUNFCCC
- 2022Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity FrameworkCBD
- 2023First global stocktake under the Paris AgreementUNFCCC
- 2024Pact for the Future and Global Digital CompactUnited Nations
Policy instrument matrix
The kinds of instrument available on Diplomacy Nexus, by level of government and cooperation.
| Instrument type | Local | National | Regional | Global |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory | Zoning, building codes | Laws, standards, licensing | Harmonised rules | Conventions and treaties |
| Economic | Local levies, grants | Budget lines, taxes, insurance schemes | Risk pools, regional funds | Financing mechanisms |
| Information | Local warnings | Disclosure, early warning, statistics | Data sharing arrangements | Global monitoring and reporting |
| Institutional | Local committees | Lead agencies, coordination councils | Regional bodies and secretariats | Multilateral mandates |
| Cooperative | Community agreements | Partnership compacts | Memoranda and joint programmes | Agreements and joint commitments |
Where the platform’s dialogue is organised.
Resources and environment: shared water and energy systems, climate and nature diplomacy and global commons. Human security: peace and human security, humanitarian cooperation and migration and displacement. Methods and emerging issues: science diplomacy, regional dialogue methods and technology diplomacy.
Four chapters bring together specialist communities: Peace and Human Security, Migration and Displacement Governance, Science Diplomacy and Global Commons Governance.
The discipline overview defines the field, and the decision-rights context sets out who holds authority over the matters the platform discusses.
Each topic page states which institutions hold decisions on its subject, what dialogue can add and what it cannot. That structure keeps the platform’s convening role distinct from the mandates of the states and bodies that decide.
Water now in the Tigris and Euphrates Basin.
Rain, flood water, root-zone soil moisture and population density over the Tigris and Euphrates Basin, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 4
Water now, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- GPM IMERG (NASA GES DISC)
- Provider
- NASA GES DISC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite estimate, near real time
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite estimate, near real time. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled
- Source
- SMAP Level 4 (NASA NSIDC DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA NSIDC DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Model with satellite data assimilated
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-11
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Model with satellite data assimilated. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (latest month GIBS publishes)
- Source
- GRACE-FO JPL mascons (NASA JPL PO.DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA JPL PO.DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- monthly; Satellite gravimetry; latest month GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2022-07-01
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite gravimetry; latest month GIBS publishes. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Water now, framed on the Tigris and Euphrates Basin.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA GPM IMERG Early · U.S. Geological SurveySources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- SMAP Level 4 soil moisture and snow mass, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office; distributed by the NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- GRACE and GRACE-FO JPL mascon solution, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: NASA GPM IMERG Early. We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (14 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Root-zone soil moisture, 0 to 100 cm: SMAP Level 4, NASA NSIDC DAAC · 11 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Water storage anomaly, monthly: GRACE-FO JPL mascons, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · July 2022
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
Built on named science, technology, engineering and mathematics.
Every claim on Diplomacy Nexus rests on methods with a canonical page in the STEM Commons, so readers can see what a finding depends on and where its limits lie.
How work moves in this field.
A question becomes evidence, a governed build, an organised community, a controlled test, a reviewed publication and, finally, a decision taken by the competent authority under its own rules.
- Question Universe National, regional or institutional priority. Question in Diplomacy Nexus
- Evidence Foundry STEM foundation of the platform. Evidence in Diplomacy Nexus
- Build Foundry Foundry. Build in Diplomacy Nexus
- Organise Universe Nexus ecosystem. Organise in Diplomacy Nexus
- Test Universe Universe (independent site). Test in Diplomacy Nexus
- Publish Reports Reports. Publish in Diplomacy Nexus
- Decide Competent authority Competent authorities and institutions, through NXS-RLS (participants, agreements and handoffs). Decide in Diplomacy Nexus
- Renew Universe Corrections and the next annual agenda. Renew in Diplomacy Nexus
Each step of the cycle in the pillar it runs in; the decision stays with the competent authority, outside the programme.
- Labs
- Foundry
- Universe
- Nexus Standards
- Reports
- Risk Academy
- Competent authority (outside the programme)
How this works across the six pillars.
Diplomacy Nexus works through six pillars of one annual programme, led by the Nexus Consortium, with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), GRF and the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) each contributing in its role: explore, experiment and prototype in Labs, build, simulate and prepare in Foundry, convene and test in Universe, codify, correct and apply in Nexus Standards, publish in every format in Reports, teach in the open in Risk Academy.
handoff in playrecorded handoffno direct handoff
Programme yearAll phases
Route
The whole programme
Every pillar hands its work to another; together they close the year’s feedback loops.
L · F · U · S · R · A
- Pillars
- 6 of 6
- Handoffs
- 18 of 18
- Loops
- 17 closed
Handoffs in play
- F01Universe → Foundry · Admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision caseReadiness preparation
- F02Foundry → Universe · Core Build Report and go or no-go evidenceControlled build
- F03Foundry → Reports · Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profileCloseout
- F04Universe → Reports · After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13After-action review
and 14 more
- LabsWhere questions become experiments and prototypes: new methods, data and tools are tried in the open, with their limits on record, before the Foundry builds them, under the Nexus Consortium.Labs
- FoundryWhere the evidence behind a mandate or commitment is built, with its owner and limits on record.Diplomacy Nexus in FoundryFoundry
- UniverseWhere mandates become missions: GRF records each gate, convenes the parties and keeps implementation accountable.Diplomacy Nexus in Universeuniverse.nexus
- Nexus StandardsWhere shared rules are agreed in the open; each jurisdiction decides adoption, and no global body holds a veto.Foundations and Governance in Standardsnexustandards.com
- ReportsWhere governance analysis and the year’s results are published, so commitments can be followed and checked.Diplomacy Nexus in ReportsReports
- Risk AcademyWhere policymakers, diplomats and agency staff learn the programme roles and decision-making on the record, on Risk Academy.Faculty of Governance, Policy and International Affairs in Academyrisksacademy.com
What the work is read against.
The platform does not set standards. It reads its evidence against the frameworks that competent bodies have adopted, so a finding can be placed where a decision-maker already works.
| Framework or standard | Body | What it sets |
|---|---|---|
| Charter of the United Nations, Chapter VI | United Nations | The duty to settle disputes by peaceful means: negotiation, enquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement and regional arrangements |
| Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties | United Nations | How treaties are concluded, interpreted, amended, suspended and terminated, including the narrow rule on fundamental change of circumstances |
| UN Watercourses Convention | United Nations General Assembly | Equitable and reasonable utilisation, the obligation not to cause significant harm, regular data exchange and notification of planned measures |
| UNECE Water Convention | UNECE, open to all UN member states | Prevention of transboundary impact, agreements and joint bodies between riparians, regular reporting and an Implementation Committee |
| Helsinki Rules and Berlin Rules | International Law Association | Non-binding codifications of international water law; the Berlin Rules extend to all waters and to environmental and human rights considerations |
| SDG indicator 6.5.2 | UNECE and UNESCO as custodian agencies | How the share of transboundary basin area under an operational arrangement for water cooperation is defined and reported |
| Paris Agreement | UNFCCC | Nationally determined contributions, the enhanced transparency framework, the global stocktake and a facilitative compliance committee |
| Espoo Convention | UNECE | Environmental impact assessment of proposed activities likely to cause significant adverse transboundary impact, with notification and consultation of affected parties |
| Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction | UNDRR | Priorities for understanding and governing disaster risk, including international cooperation and transboundary early warning |
| UN Convention on the Law of the Sea | United Nations | Maritime zones, freedom of the high seas, the deep seabed as common heritage of mankind and compulsory dispute settlement |
The same field, seen three ways.
GCRI studies a field as science, GRF governs it and GRA builds shared financial understanding of it. Diplomacy Nexus links to its counterparts so that work on one side is visible on the others.
- Water NexusInstitutionGCRIShared fieldWater, Climate and hazards
- Food NexusInstitutionGCRIShared fieldClimate and hazards
- Energy NexusInstitutionGCRIShared fieldClimate and hazards
- Biodiversity NexusInstitutionGCRIShared fieldClimate and hazards
- Climate and HazardsInstitutionGCRIShared fieldClimate and hazards
- Disaster Resilience and RecoveryInstitutionGCRIShared fieldClimate and hazards
- Oceans and CoastsInstitutionGCRIShared fieldClimate and hazards
- Space and Earth ObservationInstitutionGCRIShared fieldClimate and hazards
Pages in Diplomacy Nexus.
Mandate, publisher and status
PageDiscipline and institutional issues
PageResearch and institutional knowledge
PageProfessional practice
PageDialogues and cooperation
PageProgrammes and projects
PageAnnual programme contribution
PageSpecialist and institutional community
PageLeadership and skills
PageConvenings and dialogues
PagePublished findings
PageParticipate
PageInstitutional contact
PageTransparency, rights and safeguards
PageSTEM foundation of Diplomacy Nexus
PageChapters
PageHow work moves in this field
PageBuild in Foundry
PageTest in Universe
PagePublish in Reports
PageThe same field across the Consortium
PageTopics
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
Questions and answers.
Who publishes Diplomacy Nexus?
Is Diplomacy Nexus active?
How can I contribute?
Where are findings published?
Which values on this platform are real?
How do I report an error?
Does Diplomacy Nexus negotiate agreements?
Does participation imply any formal status?
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- EmailGateway GW-GRFSend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGlobal Risks ForumSee every way to contributeThe contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
How Diplomacy Nexus works.
Choose a view and press Play to follow the platform’s process, its programme year, the standards it applies and how its findings are published. The outline shows how the work is designed to run, not the status of any decision.
Diplomacy Nexus
How Diplomacy Nexus works
Platforms · Programme year · Standards · Reports
A platform joins a field to named methods, labelled evidence and the outputs it publishes, without becoming the authority it serves.
01 Scope
- 01Field and familiesStart · The platform leadThe home states the field, its families and who it serves.
- 02Topic dossiersRecord · Platform authorsTopics explain the subject with labelled evidence.
02 Evidence
- 03Evidence labelsRecord · GCRIEach value is labelled: observed, published statistics, estimated, modelled, scenario or unknown.
- 04MethodsStep · Method ownersMethods come from the STEM Commons, each with one canonical page.
03 Work
- 05Scenarios on the systemsModel · Foundry pillarScenarios run on the Nexus systems, labelled as scenario.
- 06Standards that applyRecord · Nexus StandardsThe platform names the standards that apply. A validator report is evidence for review.
04 Publish
- 07EditionsRecord · ReportsFindings are published through Reports with their limits.
- 08Authority decidesOutcome · The competent authorityDecisions and execution stay with the government, operator or licensed institution.
Diplomacy Nexus home · Platforms · Shared methodsAn outline of how the work is designed to run; it does not report the status of any decision or record.
Take part in Diplomacy Nexus.
Start from who you are. Answer an open call. Or form and lead a competence cell on the Diplomacy Nexus platform.
National institutions
Ministries, statistics offices and agencies: a national desk and chapter, and a seat in the working groups. National chapters
Sectors and professions
Operators, regulators, banks, insurers and professional bodies whose work touches Diplomacy Nexus. Participate
Learning
Courses and practice, with a record of every course completed. Free to study. Open learning
Standards
Draft, review and adopt the methods and data standards with the working groups. Working groups
Communities and research
Universities, civil society and individual experts: projects, data and review. Write to the team
| Open call | Seeks | Closes |
|---|---|---|
| Founding call for experts to the working groups CALL-FOUNDING-EXPERTS | expert, editor, chair | 2026-12-15 |
| Open nomination for the three independent expert seats of the Global Standards Council CALL-GSC-IND | council-member | 2026-12-01 |
| Nominations of interim regional members (applies only if the transitional provision is decided) CALL-GSC-REG | council-member | 2026-12-15 |
| Review of the wave-1 risk core outlines (C1, C2, C3, C4, C8, C10, C11) CALL-REVIEW-WAVE1 | contributor | 2027-01-31 |
| Experts for the core standards of risk science: uncertainty and evidence grading, scales, structured expert judgement, tolerability, extremes and compound events, catastrophic and existential risk, ethics and equity, units and measurement (NRS-C17 to NRS-C24) CALL-CORE-SCIENCE | expert, editor, chair | 2027-01-31 |
| Independent reviewers for the families of the hazard atlas, three from at least two regions for each family (NHS2-R19), priority families first CALL-ATLAS-REVIEW | expert | 2027-03-31 |
| Members of the interim Frontier Safety Review Panel and red-team reviewers (biosafety and biosecurity, AI safety and security, critical-infrastructure security); applications treated in confidence CALL-FRONTIER-SAFETY-REVIEW | expert | 2026-11-30 |
| Experts in ontology, metrology, software verification and conformity assessment for the requirement register, the NHS-2 machine representation, the conformance test suites and the conformity assessment scheme CALL-CONFORMANCE-ONTOLOGY | expert, editor | 2027-01-31 |
Calls past their closing date are hidden automatically. Every call, proposal and route: open areas and calls.
Gather the cell
Bring together three to seven people with complementary skills: data, field practice, policy and communication.
Register it
Write to the team with the cell’s name, members, area and region. You receive a reference and a contact. Write to the team
Choose a charter
Pick one focus: research and evidence, data and maps, standards review, or community preparedness.
Learn together
Follow shared study paths at Risk Academy, with practice and a record of every course completed. Hazards and resilience
Lead and report
Hold regular sessions. Publish what the cell learns through Reports. Bring findings to the working groups. Working groups
What a national team or a local community can do on The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX) today.
Your country’s profile
Open risk profiles for 195 countries, with sources and licences on every value. Open the Index
Correct or reply
Correct a value or reply for your country. The change is logged with its effect. Open the Index
Offer data
Offer a dataset. It enters through the licence gate, with your credit. Open the Index
Every figure on this page is indexed: water, hazards, climate, The Tigris and Euphrates Basin.
The Index is the Consortium’s indexing system for risk data. Every indicator, hazard, series and country profile carries its Nexus Standards identifier, its source and its licence, so what this page shows can be traced, corrected and reused.
- 01 · Sources205 registered sourcesEvery value keeps its source and licence; withheld values are counted.Data and licences
- 02 · Nexus StandardsNIS-1 and NHS-1451 indicators, 905 hazards; every record carries a UNI.Nexus Standards
- 03 · The Index54 series, 195 country profilesComputed on the standards; no value is published until an edition is released.The Global Risks Index
- 04 · This pageDiplomacy NexusMaps, figures and feeds read the Index in the context of water, hazards, climate and The Tigris and Euphrates Basin.Public API
Series in this context water, hazards, climate
- GSGlobal WaterAccess, scarcity, quality, floods and droughts, groundwater depletion, transboundary dependency and the couplings of water to energy, food, health and nature.NXS-GRX-AR-000059Water · Hazards · Climate
- GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap…NXS-GRX-AR-000002Hazards · Climate · Food
- GSGlobal Food and agrifoodAcute and chronic food insecurity, production shocks, import dependency, prices, fertiliser and logistics chokepoints, nutrition and pollination dependency.NXS-GRX-AR-000061Food · Water · Climate
- SRFood, water and energyThe food–water–energy nexus: shared stressors, trade-offs and joint failures.NXS-GRX-AR-000080Food · Water · Climate
Country profiles The Tigris and Euphrates Basin
Every country profile carries the source and licence of each value. Correct a value or reply
Hazard domains NHS-1
- Atmosphere and weatherNXS-GRX-AR-000135
- Water systemsNXS-GRX-AR-000136
Geodata and API open
Open layers on an equal-area hexagon grid, shown as densities per km² or as symbols: People · GHSL 2025People · WorldPop 2025Built-up areaPortsAirportsRoadsRailwaysRivers and lake centrelines
/api/v1/public/grix · https://nexustandards.com/uni/{uni}
Developers · Data · Made with Natural Earth, Public domain; GHSL and WorldPop, CC BY 4.0
Snapshot of the Index registries pinned 2026-10-23 · 22c6eed. Research and risk-analytics information: not a rating, an official classification, a warning, a benchmark or advice.
Bring a governance question to the Forum.
Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
Legal documents.
Show all 18 legal documents
Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.