GRF · 气候与自然治理
适应机构
Adaptation happens through institutions: a ministry that writes the national adaptation plan, a finance ministry that funds it, regulators who change building codes and water allocation, and local authorities who act. When mandates overlap, budgets are short or no one owns a risk, plans stay on paper. This page sets out how adaptation institutions are built and where they fail, the records that show their capacity, and the office holders who decide what is funded, where and for whom.
Adaptation institutions: how the risk develops.
Mandates, financing and accountability. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Mandates fragment
Adaptation touches water, agriculture, health, planning and infrastructure, each with its own ministry and law. Without a coordinating mandate with budget authority, every agency adapts its own assets and shared risks such as heat or flooding fall between them.
Plans outrun budgets
National adaptation plans list priorities, but spending follows the annual budget cycle. Where adaptation has no budget line or tagging, finance ministries cannot see what is spent and plans lose ground to visible short-term demands.
Local capacity limits delivery
Most adaptation is local: drainage, zoning, cooling, water supply. Municipalities with few staff, weak revenue and no hazard data cannot design or maintain measures, even when national plans assign them the task.
Maladaptation locks in
Measures that protect one place or group can move risk elsewhere: a levee that shifts flooding downstream, irrigation that depletes groundwater. Without review and learning loops, these choices stay for the life of the asset.
安第斯地区的气候信号。
来自 NASA GIBS 的安第斯地区日间地表热量、降雨、海洋热浪与人口密度。每个图层都注明其日期。
交互式地图需要JavaScript;图层列表和来源见下文。
图层 4
本页的气候信号
关于此图层
- 证据
- 观测(持续云层仍会造成缺口)
- 来源
- VIIRS NOAA-20 3 级产品,8 日(NASA LANCE)
- 提供方
- NASA LANCE
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 8 日;卫星 8 日合成;持续云层仍会造成缺口
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-09-14
- 分辨率
- 约 1 公里网格
- 不确定性
- 截至所示日期的 8 天内地表的卫星表面温度,是一项热风险暴露指标;不是气温、热指数或高温预警。
- 可通过以下方式到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许加载实时地图后访问
关于此图层
- 证据
- 估计值
- 来源
- GPM IMERG(NASA GES DISC)
- 提供方
- NASA GES DISC
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日;近实时卫星估算
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-12
- 分辨率
- 约 2 公里网格
- 不确定性
- 近实时卫星估算。卫星或模型栅格数据,按提供方发布的原样呈现。云层、条带缺口和反演误差会造成缺口和噪声;数值是指标,而非某地的测量值。
- 可通过以下方式到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许加载实时地图后访问
关于此图层
关于此图层
- 证据
- 估计值
- 来源
- 世界网格化人口 v4.11(NASA SEDAC(哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN))
- 提供方
- NASA SEDAC(CIESIN,哥伦比亚大学)
- 许可协议
- CC BY 4.0
- 年份版本
- null;基于人口普查的估算,静态(2020)
- 分辨率
- 约 1 公里网格
- 不确定性
- 基于普查的 2020 年每平方公里人口估算,作为风险暴露背景展示;不是受任何危害影响的人口数。
- 可通过以下方式到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许加载实时地图后访问
关于此图层
- 证据
- 观测
- 来源
- VIIRS 黑色大理石(VNP46A2)(NASA LAADS DAAC)
- 提供方
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日;卫星辐亮度,已校正月光和大气影响
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-12
- 分辨率
- 约 500 米网格
- 不确定性
- 所示日期的卫星夜间辐亮度;灯光是用电和停电情况的代理指标,不是对供应或可及性的测量。
- 可通过以下方式到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许加载实时地图后访问
关于此图层
- 证据
- 观测(云层造成缺口)
- 来源
- VIIRS 全球洪水产品(NASA LANCE)
- 提供方
- NASA LANCE
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日;卫星探测;云层造成缺口
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-14
- 分辨率
- 约 250 米网格
- 不确定性
- 卫星探测;云层造成缺口。按提供方发布的原样提供的卫星或模型栅格数据。云层、扫描带缺口和反演误差会造成缺口和噪声;这些数值是指标,不是某一地点的测量值。
- 可通过以下方式到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许加载实时地图后访问
键盘操作,地图获得焦点时
按住 Ctrl 或 ⌘ 并滚动以缩放
最新可用
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap贡献者 (ODbL) · Natural Earth
正在加载最新的NASA影像。
拖动以移动。按住 Ctrl 或 ⌘ 并滚动、双指缩放或使用按钮缩放;悬停可查看指针下的数值;重置可返回该区域。
安第斯地区的气候信号。NASA 发布的卫星和模型产品,各带自己的日期。它们是指标,而非对任何地点的评估。
数据:NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap 贡献者 · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA AIRS · 美国地质调查局来源与许可
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
- VIIRS 近实时产品(洪水、地表温度、积雪覆盖、校正反射率),NASA LANCE;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
- GPM IMERG 降水,NASA 降水处理系统;由 NASA 戈达德地球科学数据和信息服务中心(GES DISC)分发;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
- GHRSST Level 4 MUR 分析,NASA 喷气推进实验室;由 NASA 物理海洋学 DAAC(PO.DAAC)分发;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). 采用 CC BY 4.0 许可。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS Black Marble 夜间灯光,NASA 戈达德航天中心;由 NASA Level-1 与大气档案和分发系统(LAADS DAAC)分发;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
- ASTER GDEM 是 METI 和 NASA 的产品(ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003,NASA LP DAAC);影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。引用格式:NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA 开放数据
- 使用 Natural Earth 制作。免费矢量和栅格地图数据,见 naturalearthdata.com。 公有领域
- © OpenStreetMap 贡献者(ODbL),经由 NASA GIBS(海岸线、边界、道路和地名)。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 ODbL
- Blue Marble,NASA Earth Observatory;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
- 地球仪和平面地图上的背景信息:海岸线、边界、道路和地名来自 NASA GIBS 参考图层(OpenStreetMap 数据,ODbL,© OpenStreetMap contributors);Blue Marble 影像可作为可选底图;3D 地形和高程读数来自 ASTER GDEM 高程色彩指数(5 m 至 200 m 分级,为便于辨识而作了夸张处理)。边界按已发布的样式绘制,不代表对任何领土的立场。
- 实时事件:NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker(EONET);事件仅供参考,并保留其原始来源链接。
- 实时:NASA EONET。事件仅供参考,不是主管机构的预警。
- Observed (EO): NASA AIRS. We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- 实时:美国地质调查局。事件仅供参考,不是主管机构的预警。
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- 空气质量预报,5 天,PM2.5(CAMS,经由 Open-Meteo):包含经修改的 Copernicus 大气监测服务 2026 年信息。
- 过去一年的每日气温(ERA5,经由 Open-Meteo):包含经修改的 Copernicus 气候变化服务 2026 年信息。
- 过去一年的每日气温和日照(NASA POWER):这些数据来自 NASA 兰利研究中心(LaRC)POWER 项目,该项目由 NASA 地球科学/应用科学计划资助。
- 天气数据来自 Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), 依据 CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 授权。
- Optional layers (22 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
图层与日期
- 地表温度,日间,8 天合成:VIIRS NOAA-20 3 级产品,8 天,NASA LANCE · 2026年9月14日
- 降水率,日均值:GPM IMERG,NASA GES DISC · 2026年10月12日
- 海面温度距平:GHRSST MUR25,NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 2026年10月12日
- 人口密度,2020 年:人口:哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN,世界网格化人口 v4.11(2018),NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · 静态
- 夜间灯光,每日:VIIRS Black Marble(VNP46A2),NASA LAADS DAAC · 2026年10月12日
- 洪水水体,3 日合成:VIIRS 全球洪水产品,NASA LANCE · 2026年10月14日
衡量什么,以及衡量得如何。
每个指标都注明其单位、频率、背后的来源类型以及数值将附带的证据标签。此处不显示数值:数值由计划依据其自身权限提供。
| 指标 | 单位 | 节奏 | 来源类型 | 标签 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National adaptation plan status | submitted, in preparation or none | on submission | UNFCCC NAP Central | 已发布统计 |
| Adaptation coordination body with legal mandate | yes or no, with legal instrument | 变更时 | National legislation databases | 已发布统计 |
| Climate budget tagging in place | yes or no, with method | 年度 | Finance ministry budget documents | 已声明 |
| Tagged adaptation expenditure | currency per year and share of budget | 年度 | 预算执行报告 | 已报告 |
| Local adaptation plans adopted | count of subnational plans | 年度 | National and municipal records | 已报告 |
| Adaptation finance received | currency per year, by channel | 年度 | Biennial transparency reports and fund records | 已报告 |
| Adaptation monitoring and evaluation system | existence and scope, categorical | 变更时 | NAP progress reports | 已声明 |
适应计划跟踪器。
团队跟踪该主题时会使用的界面:其指标、状态与决策。名称为示例,数值仅作示意。
适应计划追踪器
Adaptation institutions · National adaptation council · Plan year 5
按部门划分的进展正常的行动
落实差距
| 无干旱分配规则 | 水 | 授权不明 | 流域委员会 |
| 缺少高温计划 | 卫生 | 资金 | 主管部委 |
| 海岸退缩线未执行 | 城市 | 能力 | D 省 |
适应循环
- 评估风险国家
- 计划NAP
- 实施部门
- 监测指标
- 评估学习
证据来自何处。
具名公共数据集与机构记录,各自注明许可类别。依协议获得的来源仅按其条款使用,绝不再次发布。
| 来源 | 它提供什么 | 许可类别 |
|---|---|---|
| UNFCCC NAP Central | Submitted national adaptation plans and related documents | Public records, UNFCCC terms |
| UNEP Adaptation Gap Report | Assessment of adaptation planning, finance and implementation across countries | Free to read, UNEP terms |
| 气候变化 Laws of the World | National climate laws and policies, including adaptation frameworks | Free to use with attribution, terms to check |
| Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) country index data | Vulnerability and readiness components by country | Free to download, terms to check |
| OECD climate-related development finance data | Adaptation-related development finance by provider and recipient | 免费,OECD 条款 |
| Green Climate Fund and Adaptation Fund project records | Approved adaptation projects, readiness grants and implementing entities | Public records, terms per fund |
比较文书:规则、激励和信息。
三类工具在你设定的覆盖率和遵从率下与基线并列比较,每类都有自己的滞后和采用速度;效应大小是教学用数值,应以证据替换。情景:关于未来的具名假设,不是预测。本页地图显示安第斯山脉;模型本身并不绑定某个地点。
控制措施
- 结果的基线趋势
- 每年 2.0%
- 该工具的覆盖范围
- 70%
- 合规
- 75%
- 效应量,相对于教学取值
- 100%
- 未来年数
- 20 年
读数
- 期末时点降幅最大
- 监管
- 相对基线的降幅
- 21%
数字、方法与来源
| 年份 | 基线 | 监管 | 经济激励 | 信息与能力 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100.0 | 99.5 | 98.8 | 99.1 |
| 1 | 102.0 | 101.2 | 100.1 | 99.8 |
| 2 | 104.0 | 102.5 | 101.1 | 99.9 |
| 3 | 106.1 | 103.5 | 101.6 | 100.0 |
| 4 | 108.2 | 103.7 | 101.8 | 100.7 |
| 5 | 110.4 | 103.2 | 101.7 | 102.1 |
| 6 | 112.6 | 102.0 | 101.6 | 103.9 |
| 7 | 114.9 | 100.4 | 101.6 | 105.9 |
| 8 | 117.2 | 99.2 | 102.1 | 108.0 |
| 9 | 119.5 | 98.6 | 102.9 | 110.1 |
| 10 | 121.9 | 98.9 | 104.2 | 112.3 |
| 11 | 124.3 | 99.7 | 105.7 | 114.5 |
| 12 | 126.8 | 101.1 | 107.4 | 116.8 |
| 13 | 129.4 | 102.7 | 109.4 | 119.2 |
| 14 | 131.9 | 104.5 | 111.4 | 121.6 |
| 15 | 134.6 | 106.5 | 113.5 | 124.0 |
| 16 | 137.3 | 108.5 | 115.7 | 126.5 |
| 17 | 140.0 | 110.7 | 118.0 | 129.0 |
| 18 | 142.8 | 112.9 | 120.4 | 131.6 |
| 19 | 145.7 | 115.1 | 122.8 | 134.2 |
| 20 | 148.6 | 117.4 | 125.2 | 136.9 |
方法
- 政府工具 Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan
- 胡萝卜、大棒与说教 Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction
- 创新扩散 Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press
- 不确定性扇形图(参数蒙特卡罗) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- 单因素敏感性(龙卷风图) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
数据
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- 边界 Natural Earth
- 城市 Natural Earth
贯穿六大支柱,由 Nexus Consortium 牵头
由谁决定,以及证据服务于什么。
气候与自然治理负责准备证据。以下决定由所列主管机构依据其自身规则作出,绝不由平台作出。
| 谁来决定 | 问题 | 本页面服务的证据 |
|---|---|---|
| Environment and climate ministries | How the national adaptation plan assigns responsibilities and what it prioritises | Mandate maps, hazard evidence and comparable plan designs, with sources |
| 财政部门 | Whether adaptation gets a budget line, tagging and appraisal rules | Budget tagging methods, execution data and 财政风险 证据 |
| Municipal councils | Which local measures to fund and maintain | Local hazard data, cost and maintenance records, and lessons from comparable cities |
| Parliamentary committees and audit institutions | Whether adaptation commitments are being delivered | Plan targets against budget execution and monitoring reports |
该主题产生的产出
- Maps of adaptation mandates showing who decides, funds, implements and reviews
- Comparative notes on national adaptation plan design and budget integration
- Dialogue briefs on local delivery capacity for heat, flood and drought
- Questions for legislatures reviewing adaptation progress
从授权到评估,按支柱划分。
一项文书从授权到评估所经历的步骤,每一步都标明负责运行的支柱,以及仍由当局作出的决定。这是带有明示说明性数值的教学模型,不是预测。本页地图显示的是安第斯山脉;模型本身不限于某一地点。
- 授权与问题界定 主管当局(计划之外)
主管当局依其自身规则界定问题和授权。 Howlett、Ramesh 和 Perl(2009) - 证据与系统模型 Foundry
对系统及其反馈、数据和已说明的局限进行建模。 OECD (2014),原则 2 - 在情景下评估备选方案 Foundry
在情景下比较各项政策工具,并显示不确定性。 Hood (1983) - 与利益相关方演练 宇宙
在演练中与将实施和承担这些方案的各方一起检验方案。 OECD(2014),原则 3 - 起草标准或指南 Nexus Standards
行之有效的做法被编纂为标准或指南,并公开征求意见。 Nexus Standards 流程 - 由主管当局决定 主管当局(计划之外)
主管当局在计划之外,依据记录在案的证据作出决定。 Howlett、Ramesh 和 Perl(2009) - 能力与培训 Risk Academy
负责实施的人员接受关于所决定文书及其数据的培训。 仙台框架(2015),优先事项 2 - 监测与公开报告 报告
指标连同来源、局限和更正一并发布。 OECD(2014),原则 5 - 评估与修订 Nexus Standards
结果反馈至标准和模型:循环闭合。 Howlett、Ramesh 和 Perl(2009)
方法
- 政策周期 Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press
- 关键风险治理 OECD(2014),Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks
- 有向图的分层绘制 Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11
贯穿六大支柱,由 Nexus Consortium 牵头
What governance researchers ask.
- Which agency leads on adaptation, and does it have the authority and budget to coordinate others?
- How are national plans translated into sector and local action?
- How is adaptation financed, and who decides priorities?
- How is progress monitored, and who is accountable when it falls short?
Exercise a cascade in adaptation institutions with the people who decide.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile 气候适应与转型风险: the hazards it names, the 系统 and communities that carry the loss, the controls and institutions that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating event and step through the cascade to see where mandates meet and which decisions fall to whom. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise for dialogue, not a forecast, an assessment or a position. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
灾害
控制措施
NS-0章程与原则NS-3风险记录 UNI(语法、旧编码对照、分配机构)NS-9情境 UNI(部署、实例、计划实例)NS-10政策和条款(机器可读的义务:定义、约束、评估和执行)NS-11验证与监测(证据、证明、零信任符合性观测)NS-14符合性及与外部标准的对照NRS-X1气候变化风险与适应NRS-T16人工智能代理与自主决策系统风险NRS-H65危害类别:超越行星边界(NHS-1 planet.boundary)NRS-I7智能应用:有依据的检索、推理与决策支持NRS-K20领域包规范:气候适应(DOMAIN-020)NRS-K21领域包配置文件:气候减缓碳(DOMAIN-021)
观测
- CMIP6 气候预估(Copernicus Climate Data Store)(仅列作参考)
- NGFS Scenario Explorer(仅列作参考)
- ERA5 再分析(Copernicus Climate Data Store)(仅列作参考)
- World Bank Open Data 和 World Development Indicators API(仅列作参考)
- 已制定国家自主贡献、长期战略、国家适应计划和适应信息通报的国家数目
- 根据 仙台框架
示例地理范围
- 太平洋岛国:150 个六边形网格
- 今夜夜间灯光与停电(VIIRS 昼夜波段),NASA GIBS
- 白天地表气温(AIRS),NASA GIBS
- 过去半小时降雨率(IMERG),NASA GIBS
- 穿透云层的地表水,30 m(OPERA DSWx-S1 雷达),NASA GIBS
Why adaptation governance is hard.
Adaptation cuts across sectors: water, agriculture, health, infrastructure, planning and disaster risk management. Environment ministries often lead on plans but lack authority over the line ministries and local governments that implement them. Adaptation outcomes, such as avoided losses, are hard to measure, which weakens accountability.
Local authorities carry much of the burden but often lack funds and technical capacity. Financing is fragmented between domestic budgets and multiple international funds with different rules. Short political cycles discourage investment in long-term resilience.
Why now: the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience (2023) set adaptation targets for 2030, and national adaptation plans increasingly cut across ministries that rarely plan together. The platform is designed to convene those ministries and the local governments that deliver adaptation, map who decides what, and test the arrangement in a 宇宙 exercise before a heat or flood season does.
How adaptation institutions is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.
政策制定者、外交官或发展机构所使用的文书、授权、行为方和问责安排,并注明设定它们的协定。结构遵循所列框架。所绘制的任何状态或进展均为说明性,并非记录。
随时间变化的授权与协定
The agreements that set mandates and commitments on adaptation institutions, from adoption to their current horizon.
- 1992《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《生物多样性公约》联合国
- 2015《仙台减少灾害风险框架》UNDRR
- 2015《2030 年可持续发展议程》和可持续发展目标联合国
- 2015《巴黎协定》UNFCCC
- 2022昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架CBD
- 2023《巴黎协定》下的首次全球盘点UNFCCC
- 2030《2030 年议程》和《仙台框架》的时间跨度联合国
How institutions are compared.
- 01
职责映射
Identifying which bodies hold which responsibilities, using 政策、制度与决策科学. Formal mandates can differ from practice.
- 02
比较案例分析
Comparing how different countries organise adaptation. Context limits how far lessons transfer.
- 03
Budget tracking
Following adaptation spending through public budgets. Adaptation is often embedded in other spending and hard to isolate.
- 04
Monitoring frameworks
Indicators of process and outcome, informed by 气候与大气科学. Outcome indicators lag and attribution is difficult.
问题与解答。
What is a national adaptation plan?
What is maladaptation?
Who is accountable for adaptation?
Why do adaptation plans often stall?
Does GRF fund adaptation projects?
Can a ministry request a comparative dossier?
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