GRF · Capital Nexus
Capital Nexus
Capital-related institutional dialogue focused on risk-informed investment policy and public-good readiness, not finance execution. Capital Nexus is an established platform of The Global Risks Forum.
- STEM methods
- 3
- Canonical methods this field applies
- Topics
- 8
- Subject pages in the field
- Counterparts
- 15
- Platforms in shared fields across the network
- Report series
- 2
- Reports series it contributes to
21 pages under Capital Nexus.
- 01STEM methods3 canonical methods applied
- 02Topics8 subject pages
- 03Counterparts15 platforms in shared fields
- 04Report series2 Reports series
- 05Mandate, publisherMandate, publisher and status
- 06Discipline institutionalDiscipline and institutional issues
- 07Research institutionalResearch and institutional knowledge
- 08Professional practiceProfessional practice
What the work is read against.
The platform does not set standards. It reads its evidence against the frameworks that competent bodies have adopted, so a finding can be placed where a decision-maker already works.
| Framework or standard | Body | What it sets |
|---|---|---|
| Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries | IMF and World Bank | Debt-carrying capacity, risk of debt distress ratings, thresholds and stress tests that guide borrowing and concessional lending decisions |
| Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability Framework for market-access countries | IMF | Risk-based assessment of sovereign stress over near, medium and long horizons for countries with market access |
| Addis Ababa Action Agenda | United Nations, Third International Conference on Financing for Development | Global framework for financing sustainable development across domestic, international, public and private resources, debt and systemic issues |
| Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI | G20 and Paris Club | Procedure for coordinated public creditor treatment of eligible countries’ debt, with comparability of treatment for other creditors |
| Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability framework | PEFA Secretariat and partners | Indicators and scoring for public financial management performance, from budget credibility to external audit |
| Public Investment Management Assessment, including Climate-PIMA | IMF | Diagnostic of the institutions that plan, allocate and implement public investment, with a module on climate-sensitive practice |
| Recommendation of the Council on Budgetary Governance | OECD | Principles for budget frameworks, fiscal objectives, capital planning, transparency, parliamentary scrutiny and fiscal risk management |
| Basel III framework | Basel Committee on Banking Supervision | Capital, leverage and liquidity standards for internationally active banks, the context in which sovereign exposures and bank lending are regulated |
| Principles on Promoting Responsible Sovereign Lending and Borrowing | UNCTAD | Shared responsibilities of lenders and borrowers on authority, due diligence, transparency, debt management and restructuring |
| Sustainable Development Goal 17 and its finance targets | United Nations | Targets on domestic resource mobilisation, development assistance (ODA), debt sustainability and policy coherence |
Public investment pipeline.
The screen a team would use to follow this field: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Public investment pipeline
Member state A · Budget cycle 3
Pipeline
| Coastal road upgrade | Transport | High risk | Redo | Appraisal |
| District hospital | Health | Medium | Done | Committee |
| Irrigation scheme | Agriculture | Medium | Done | Financing |
| Solar mini-grids | Energy | Low | Done | Procurement |
Committee
- Next meeting
- week 11
- Quorum
- 8 members
- Conflicts
- declared, recorded
- GRF role
- convening and methods
Investment cycle
- Identifyneeds
- Screenclimate and disaster
- Appraisecost-benefit
- Selectcommittee
- Financemix
- Implementmonitor
- Evaluateex post
The questions this field works on.
Public purpose capital
Public investment and capital allocation principles.
TopicResilience finance governance
Risk evidence and decision rights.
TopicDevelopment capital policy
Institutional enabling conditions.
TopicClimate and nature finance policy
Disclosure, mandates and safeguards.
TopicInvestment governance
Roles, oversight and conflicts.
TopicFinance and inequality
Distributional outcomes and access.
TopicCountry capital readiness
National evidence requirements.
TopicPublic-private cooperation
Safeguards for sponsorship and support.
Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information.
Three families of instruments side by side against the baseline, each with its own lag and adoption speed, under the coverage and compliance you set; effect sizes are teaching values to replace with evidence. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast. The map on this page shows Latin America and the Caribbean; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Baseline trend of the outcome
- 2.0% a year
- Coverage of the instrument
- 70%
- Compliance
- 75%
- Effect size, against the teaching value
- 100%
- Years ahead
- 20 years
Readouts
- Largest reduction at the horizon
- Regulation
- Its reduction against the baseline
- 21%
Numbers, methods and sources
| Year | Baseline | Regulation | Economic incentive | Information and capacity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100.0 | 99.5 | 98.8 | 99.1 |
| 1 | 102.0 | 101.2 | 100.1 | 99.8 |
| 2 | 104.0 | 102.5 | 101.1 | 99.9 |
| 3 | 106.1 | 103.5 | 101.6 | 100.0 |
| 4 | 108.2 | 103.7 | 101.8 | 100.7 |
| 5 | 110.4 | 103.2 | 101.7 | 102.1 |
| 6 | 112.6 | 102.0 | 101.6 | 103.9 |
| 7 | 114.9 | 100.4 | 101.6 | 105.9 |
| 8 | 117.2 | 99.2 | 102.1 | 108.0 |
| 9 | 119.5 | 98.6 | 102.9 | 110.1 |
| 10 | 121.9 | 98.9 | 104.2 | 112.3 |
| 11 | 124.3 | 99.7 | 105.7 | 114.5 |
| 12 | 126.8 | 101.1 | 107.4 | 116.8 |
| 13 | 129.4 | 102.7 | 109.4 | 119.2 |
| 14 | 131.9 | 104.5 | 111.4 | 121.6 |
| 15 | 134.6 | 106.5 | 113.5 | 124.0 |
| 16 | 137.3 | 108.5 | 115.7 | 126.5 |
| 17 | 140.0 | 110.7 | 118.0 | 129.0 |
| 18 | 142.8 | 112.9 | 120.4 | 131.6 |
| 19 | 145.7 | 115.1 | 122.8 | 134.2 |
| 20 | 148.6 | 117.4 | 125.2 | 136.9 |
Methods
- Tools of government Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan
- Carrots, sticks and sermons Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction
- Diffusion of innovations Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Borders Natural Earth
- Cities Natural Earth
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Capital Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Capital Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Finance, Insurance and the Economy in Standards
- Published in Capital Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Finance and Economics in Academy
The areas of development finance this platform takes on.
Capital Nexus studies the governance of capital for public purpose: how sovereign borrowing, public investment, development finance and financial stability arrangements are mandated, agreed, overseen and held to account. Its pages set out the institutions, frameworks, evidence and decision rights for each part of that system, with every indicator labelled by its evidence. It is a space for institutional dialogue, not for finance execution, and nothing on it is investment advice.
Sovereign debt and sustainability
Debt sustainability analysis, debt transparency, debt management strategy and the frameworks for treatment and restructuring.
Public investment management
Planning, appraisal, selection, execution and maintenance of public capital, and the institutions assessed by PIMA and PEFA.
Development finance architecture
Multilateral and public development banks, concessional windows, public flows and the capital rules that bound them.
Financial stability and supervision
Macroprudential policy, bank capital standards and the transmission of shocks between banks, markets and sovereigns.
Climate and nature finance
Disclosure standards, supervisory mandates, taxonomies, climate fund commitments and environmental and social safeguards.
Resilience and disaster risk finance
Risk layering, contingent credit, insurance pools, payment pause clauses and the decision rights that release funds.
Access and distribution
Financial inclusion, fiscal incidence and the distributional effects of debt service, adjustment and crises.
Public and private cooperation
Partnerships, guarantees, blended finance and sponsorship, with the safeguards that keep fiscal risk and accountability visible.
From mandate to evaluation, by pillar.
The steps an instrument takes from mandate to evaluation, each with the pillar that runs it, and the decisions that stay with the authority. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows Latin America and the Caribbean; the model itself is not tied to a place.
- Mandate and problem framing Competent authority (outside the programme)
A competent authority frames the problem and the mandate under its own rules. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Evidence and system model Foundry
The system is modelled with its feedbacks, data and stated limits. OECD (2014), principle 2 - Options appraised with scenarios Foundry
Instruments are compared under scenarios, with uncertainty shown. Hood (1983) - Exercise with stakeholders Universe
The options are tested in an exercise with those who would implement and bear them. OECD (2014), principle 3 - Standard or guidance drafted Nexus Standards
What works is codified as a standard or guidance, open to comment. Nexus Standards process - Decision by the authority Competent authority (outside the programme)
The authority decides, outside the programme, with the evidence on record. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Capacity and training Risk Academy
Those who implement are trained on the decided instrument and its data. Sendai Framework (2015), priority 2 - Monitoring and public report Reports
Indicators are published with sources, limits and corrections. OECD (2014), principle 5 - Evaluation and revision Nexus Standards
Results return to the standard and the model: the cycle closes. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)
Methods
- Policy cycle Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press
- Governance of critical risks OECD (2014), Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks
- Layered drawing of directed graphs Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Capital Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Capital Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Finance, Insurance and the Economy in Standards
- Published in Capital Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Finance and Economics in Academy
What Capital Nexus does.
Public finance governance is the set of mandates, rules, agreements and oversight through which sovereign borrowing, public investment, development finance and financial stability arrangements are decided and held to account. Capital Nexus, Global Risks Forum’s platform for it, sets out the institutions, frameworks and decision rights involved and gives no investment advice.
Its community
Policy economists; development experts; public institutions; finance governance researchers.
Its methods
Finance-policy synthesis; risk-informed capital governance; disclosure learning.
Its outputs
Capital governance briefs; resilience finance dialogues.
Exercise a cascade in Capital Nexus with the people who decide.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Disaster and climate risk finance: the hazards it names, the systems and communities that carry the loss, the controls and institutions that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating event and step through the cascade to see where mandates meet and which decisions fall to whom. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise for dialogue, not a forecast, an assessment or a position. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Tropical cyclone
- Earthquake
- Ice-jam flood
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- Intense rainfall (set off downstream)
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Dangerous surf (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Aftershock sequence (set off downstream)
- Fault surface rupture (set off downstream)
- Soil liquefaction (set off downstream)
- Slope slide (set off downstream)
- Rockfall (set off downstream)
- Tsunami (set off downstream)
- Building collapse (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-F8Parametric and index-based risk transferNRS-F7Disaster risk finance and pre-arranged financeNRS-H113Hazard family: Financial-system fragility (NHS-1 soc.financial-system)NRS-H114Hazard family: Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks (NHS-1 soc.macro-fiscal)NRS-D1Risk-informed development and project screeningNRS-H28Hazard family: Climate-state shifts (NHS-1 eco.climate-state)
Observation
- ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- CHIRPS quasi-global gridded precipitation (listed for reference)
- USGS earthquake GeoJSON summary feeds (listed for reference)
- Total public international support for national disaster risk reduction actions (Sendai indicator F-1)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
Example geography
- Western Europe: 152 hexagonal cells
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
Capital is plentiful in aggregate and scarce where risk is highest.
Countries most exposed to climate, disaster and economic shocks often face the highest cost of capital and the least room in their public budgets. Investment that would reduce risk, such as resilient infrastructure, early warning or social protection, competes with immediate needs, and its benefits are hard to price because they are losses that do not happen. Private investors meet the same risks through credit, insurance and asset values, often without the evidence or mandate to act on them.
Failures in capital governance cascade. A disaster raises spending and cuts revenue at once, pushing up borrowing costs and crowding out the investment that would have reduced the next loss. Poorly governed public investment can create contingent liabilities that surface in a crisis. Disclosure without decision rights can produce information nobody uses, and safeguards applied late can stop a project or harm the people it was meant to serve. The distribution of gains and losses shapes trust in institutions, and with it the ability to act next time.
These are questions of institutions as much as markets: who decides, on what evidence, under which mandate and with what accountability. That is the ground of Capital Nexus, which brings together the public and private institutions concerned so that they can compare approaches and examine evidence in a neutral setting.
Why now: the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development in Seville (2025) set a new agenda for development finance, and debt service pressure limits what many exposed countries can invest in resilience. Capital Nexus convenes the public institutions that govern borrowing, investment and disclosure, and passes finance-readiness questions to Global Risks Alliance (GRA); it never executes, arranges or advises on finance.
How Capital Nexus is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.
The instruments, mandates, actors and accountability arrangements a policymaker, diplomat or development agency works with, citing the agreements that set them. Structures follow the frameworks named. Any state or progress drawn is illustrative, not a record.
Development outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals and targets that outcomes on Capital Nexus are reported against.
| Goal | Target | How this subject links |
|---|---|---|
| Goal 1, no poverty | Target 1.5, resilience of the poor and vulnerable | Outcomes reported through the agreed indicator of the target |
| Goal 17, partnerships for the goals | Target 17.4, long-term debt sustainability | Outcomes reported through the agreed indicator of the target |
| Goal 10, reduced inequalities | Target 10.5, regulation and monitoring of financial markets | Outcomes reported through the agreed indicator of the target |
| Goal 16, peace, justice and strong institutions | Target 16.6, effective, accountable and transparent institutions | Outcomes reported through the agreed indicator of the target |
Implementation by country
How a commitment on Capital Nexus is traced from adoption to review, country by country.
| Country (example) | Commitment | National instrument | Budget line | Indicator reported | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country A | In place | In place | In preparation | In preparation | No record |
| Country B | In place | In preparation | In preparation | No record | No record |
| Country C | In preparation | No record | No record | No record | No record |
- Commitment traced
- Addis Ababa Action Agenda on financing for development
- Where states report
- national reports to the body that holds the agreement
- Read with
- the country’s own plan and its review record
Dialogue on capital, never a transaction.
Capital Nexus is designed for policy economists, development experts, public institutions and finance governance researchers. Its methods are finance-policy synthesis, risk-informed capital governance and learning from disclosure practice.
Capital governance briefs
Concise analysis of a governance question, with sources, options and their limits.
Resilience finance dialogues
Structured dialogues that start from a stated question and end with a published record.
Disclosure learning
Comparative study of what disclosure regimes reveal, and what they leave out.
GRF convenes and governs programmes. It does not regulate, finance, procure or certify, and hosting or sponsorship confers no authority over findings. Capital Nexus never selects, recommends, arranges or approves an investment.
Activity and exposure in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Night lights, population density and flood water over Latin America and the Caribbean, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Activity and exposure, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE FIRMS
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Activity and exposure, framed on Latin America and the Caribbean.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASESources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Context: CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASE. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, and NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC): Global Human Built-up And Settlement Extent (HBASE) 2010; Seto, Guneralp and Hutyra 2012, Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030; Global Urban Heat Island (UHI) Data Set, 2013.
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Optional layers (5 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
Science underneath, industry alongside.
The platform draws on three canonical methods in the STEM Commons: economics and development economics, financial economics and macro-finance and policy, institutional and decision science. Their use here is described on the STEM foundation of Capital Nexus. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) supplies research through Economic Development.
Global Risks Alliance (GRA) builds shared industry understanding of the same subjects as a business league, never as an adviser or arranger. Its counterparts include Development Finance Nexus, Sovereign Capital Nexus, Public Finance and Sovereign Debt, Disaster Risk Finance, Financial Stability and Banking Nexus. The full list is on counterparts across the Consortium.
Built on named science, technology, engineering and mathematics.
Every claim on Capital Nexus rests on methods with a canonical page in the STEM Commons, so readers can see what a finding depends on and where its limits lie.
How work moves in this field.
A question becomes evidence, a governed build, an organised community, a controlled test, a reviewed publication and, finally, a decision taken by the competent authority under its own rules.
- Question Universe National, regional or institutional priority. Question in Capital Nexus
- Evidence Foundry STEM foundation of the platform. Evidence in Capital Nexus
- Build Foundry Foundry. Build in Capital Nexus
- Organise Universe Nexus ecosystem. Organise in Capital Nexus
- Test Universe Universe (independent site). Test in Capital Nexus
- Publish Reports Reports. Publish in Capital Nexus
- Decide Competent authority Competent authorities and institutions, through NXS-RLS (participants, agreements and handoffs). Decide in Capital Nexus
- Renew Universe Corrections and the next annual agenda. Renew in Capital Nexus
Each step of the cycle in the pillar it runs in; the decision stays with the competent authority, outside the programme.
- Labs
- Foundry
- Universe
- Nexus Standards
- Reports
- Risk Academy
- Competent authority (outside the programme)
How this works across the six pillars.
Capital Nexus works through six pillars of one annual programme, led by the Nexus Consortium, with GCRI, GRF and GRA each contributing in its role: explore, experiment and prototype in Labs, build, simulate and prepare in Foundry, convene and test in Universe, codify, correct and apply in Nexus Standards, publish in every format in Reports, teach in the open in Risk Academy.
handoff in playrecorded handoffno direct handoff
Programme yearAll phases
Route
The whole programme
Every pillar hands its work to another; together they close the year’s feedback loops.
L · F · U · S · R · A
- Pillars
- 6 of 6
- Handoffs
- 18 of 18
- Loops
- 17 closed
Handoffs in play
- F01Universe → Foundry · Admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision caseReadiness preparation
- F02Foundry → Universe · Core Build Report and go or no-go evidenceControlled build
- F03Foundry → Reports · Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profileCloseout
- F04Universe → Reports · After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13After-action review
and 14 more
- LabsWhere questions become experiments and prototypes: new methods, data and tools are tried in the open, with their limits on record, before the Foundry builds them, under the Nexus Consortium.Labs
- FoundryWhere the evidence behind a mandate or commitment is built, with its owner and limits on record.Capital Nexus in FoundryFoundry
- UniverseWhere mandates become missions: GRF records each gate, convenes the parties and keeps implementation accountable.Capital Nexus in Universeuniverse.nexus
- Nexus StandardsWhere shared rules are agreed in the open; each jurisdiction decides adoption, and no global body holds a veto.Finance, Insurance and the Economy in Standardsnexustandards.com
- ReportsWhere governance analysis and the year’s results are published, so commitments can be followed and checked.Capital Nexus in ReportsReports
- Risk AcademyWhere policymakers, diplomats and agency staff learn the programme roles and decision-making on the record, on Risk Academy.Faculty of Finance and Economics in Academyrisksacademy.com
The same field, seen three ways.
GCRI studies a field as science, GRF governs it and GRA builds shared financial understanding of it. Capital Nexus links to its counterparts so that work on one side is visible on the others.
- AgencyInstitutionGCRIShared fieldDevelopment finance
- Economic DevelopmentInstitutionGCRIShared fieldDevelopment finance
- Banking NexusInstitutionGRAShared fieldFinancial stability
- Capital Markets NexusInstitutionGRAShared fieldFinancial stability
- Development Finance NexusInstitutionGRAShared fieldDevelopment finance
- Financial Regulation NexusInstitutionGRAShared fieldFinancial stability
- Sovereign Capital NexusInstitutionGRAShared fieldSovereign and public finance
- Financial StabilityInstitutionGRAShared fieldFinancial stability
Pages in Capital Nexus.
Mandate, publisher and status
PageDiscipline and institutional issues
PageResearch and institutional knowledge
PageProfessional practice
PageDialogues and cooperation
PageProgrammes and projects
PageAnnual programme contribution
PageSpecialist and institutional community
PageLeadership and skills
PageConvenings and dialogues
PagePublished findings
PageParticipate
PageInstitutional contact
PageTransparency, rights and safeguards
PageSTEM foundation of Capital Nexus
PageHow work moves in this field
PageBuild in Foundry
PageTest in Universe
PagePublish in Reports
PageThe same field across the Consortium
PageTopics
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
Questions and answers.
Who publishes Capital Nexus?
Is Capital Nexus active?
How can I contribute?
Where are findings published?
Which values on this platform are real?
How do I report an error?
Can Capital Nexus help a project raise finance?
How does Capital Nexus differ from GRA platforms?
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- EmailGateway GW-GRFSend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGlobal Risks ForumSee every way to contributeThe contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
How Capital Nexus works.
Choose a view and press Play to follow the platform’s process, its programme year, the standards it applies and how its findings are published. The outline shows how the work is designed to run, not the status of any decision.
Capital Nexus
How Capital Nexus works
Platforms · Programme year · Standards · Reports
A platform joins a field to named methods, labelled evidence and the outputs it publishes, without becoming the authority it serves.
01 Scope
- 01Field and familiesStart · The platform leadThe home states the field, its families and who it serves.
- 02Topic dossiersRecord · Platform authorsTopics explain the subject with labelled evidence.
02 Evidence
- 03Evidence labelsRecord · GCRIEach value is labelled: observed, published statistics, estimated, modelled, scenario or unknown.
- 04MethodsStep · Method ownersMethods come from the STEM Commons, each with one canonical page.
03 Work
- 05Scenarios on the systemsModel · Foundry pillarScenarios run on the Nexus systems, labelled as scenario.
- 06Standards that applyRecord · Nexus StandardsThe platform names the standards that apply. A validator report is evidence for review.
04 Publish
- 07EditionsRecord · ReportsFindings are published through Reports with their limits.
- 08Authority decidesOutcome · The competent authorityDecisions and execution stay with the government, operator or licensed institution.
Capital Nexus home · Platforms · Shared methodsAn outline of how the work is designed to run; it does not report the status of any decision or record.
Take part in Capital Nexus.
Start from who you are. Answer an open call. Or form and lead a competence cell on the Capital Nexus platform.
National institutions
Ministries, statistics offices and agencies: a national desk and chapter, and a seat in the working groups. National chapters
Sectors and professions
Operators, regulators, banks, insurers and professional bodies whose work touches Capital Nexus. Participate
Learning
Courses and practice, with a record of every course completed. Free to study. Open learning
Standards
Draft, review and adopt the methods and data standards with the working groups. Working groups
Communities and research
Universities, civil society and individual experts: projects, data and review. Write to the team
| Open call | Seeks | Closes |
|---|---|---|
| Founding call for experts to the working groups CALL-FOUNDING-EXPERTS | expert, editor, chair | 2026-12-15 |
| Open nomination for the three independent expert seats of the Global Standards Council CALL-GSC-IND | council-member | 2026-12-01 |
| Nominations of interim regional members (applies only if the transitional provision is decided) CALL-GSC-REG | council-member | 2026-12-15 |
| Review of the wave-1 risk core outlines (C1, C2, C3, C4, C8, C10, C11) CALL-REVIEW-WAVE1 | contributor | 2027-01-31 |
| Experts for the core standards of risk science: uncertainty and evidence grading, scales, structured expert judgement, tolerability, extremes and compound events, catastrophic and existential risk, ethics and equity, units and measurement (NRS-C17 to NRS-C24) CALL-CORE-SCIENCE | expert, editor, chair | 2027-01-31 |
| Independent reviewers for the families of the hazard atlas, three from at least two regions for each family (NHS2-R19), priority families first CALL-ATLAS-REVIEW | expert | 2027-03-31 |
| Members of the interim Frontier Safety Review Panel and red-team reviewers (biosafety and biosecurity, AI safety and security, critical-infrastructure security); applications treated in confidence CALL-FRONTIER-SAFETY-REVIEW | expert | 2026-11-30 |
| Experts in ontology, metrology, software verification and conformity assessment for the requirement register, the NHS-2 machine representation, the conformance test suites and the conformity assessment scheme CALL-CONFORMANCE-ONTOLOGY | expert, editor | 2027-01-31 |
Calls past their closing date are hidden automatically. Every call, proposal and route: open areas and calls.
Gather the cell
Bring together three to seven people with complementary skills: data, field practice, policy and communication.
Register it
Write to the team with the cell’s name, members, area and region. You receive a reference and a contact. Write to the team
Choose a charter
Pick one focus: research and evidence, data and maps, standards review, or community preparedness.
Learn together
Follow shared study paths at Risk Academy, with practice and a record of every course completed. Hazards and resilience
Lead and report
Hold regular sessions. Publish what the cell learns through Reports. Bring findings to the working groups. Working groups
What a national team or a local community can do on The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX) today.
Your country’s profile
Open risk profiles for 195 countries, with sources and licences on every value. Open the Index
Correct or reply
Correct a value or reply for your country. The change is logged with its effect. Open the Index
Offer data
Offer a dataset. It enters through the licence gate, with your credit. Open the Index
Every figure on this page is indexed: finance, fiscal, macro, Latin America and the Caribbean.
The Index is the Consortium’s indexing system for risk data. Every indicator, hazard, series and country profile carries its Nexus Standards identifier, its source and its licence, so what this page shows can be traced, corrected and reused.
- 01 · Sources205 registered sourcesEvery value keeps its source and licence; withheld values are counted.Data and licences
- 02 · Nexus StandardsNIS-1 and NHS-1451 indicators, 905 hazards; every record carries a UNI.Nexus Standards
- 03 · The Index54 series, 195 country profilesComputed on the standards; no value is published until an edition is released.The Global Risks Index
- 04 · This pageCapital NexusMaps, figures and feeds read the Index in the context of finance, fiscal, macro and Latin America and the Caribbean.Public API
Series in this context finance, fiscal, macro
- GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap…NXS-GRX-AR-000002Fiscal · Finance · Economy
- GSGlobal Finance and economyFiscal and public debt risk, financial stability, external dependence, inflation and growth at risk, and the macro-financial channels of physical and transition risk.NXS-GRX-AR-000063Fiscal · Finance · Economy
- SRFinancial contagion and systemic financeInterconnected exposures, sovereign–bank links, capital-flow reversals and contagion through financial networks.NXS-GRX-AR-000081Finance · Fiscal · Economy
- SRFiscal resilienceFiscal space, debt sustainability signals, contingent liabilities from disasters, and pre-arranged finance.NXS-GRX-AR-000078Fiscal · Macro · Finance
Country profiles Latin America and the Caribbean
Every country profile carries the source and licence of each value. Correct a value or reply
Hazard domains NHS-1
- Frontier and exponential technologyNXS-GRX-AR-000146
- Society, conflict and economyNXS-GRX-AR-000147
Geodata and API open
Open layers on an equal-area hexagon grid, shown as densities per km² or as symbols: People · GHSL 2025People · WorldPop 2025Built-up areaPortsAirportsRoadsRailwaysRivers and lake centrelines
/api/v1/public/grix · https://nexustandards.com/uni/{uni}
Developers · Data · Made with Natural Earth, Public domain; GHSL and WorldPop, CC BY 4.0
Snapshot of the Index registries pinned 2026-10-23 · 22c6eed. Research and risk-analytics information: not a rating, an official classification, a warning, a benchmark or advice.
Bring a governance question to the Forum.
Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
Legal documents.
Show all 18 legal documents
Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.