GRF · Policy Nexus
Disaster risk reduction policy
Disaster losses are shaped long before the hazard arrives: by where people are allowed to build, how infrastructure is designed, what is spent on prevention and who is responsible for acting. Disaster risk reduction policy is the body of law, strategy, mandate and budget that governs those choices. This page sets out how disaster risk accumulates through governance, how national and local strategies are measured under the Sendai Framework, and which institutions decide.
Disaster risk reduction policy on the record.
Disaster risk reduction policy: how the risk develops.
Prevention and national strategies. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Risk is created by decisions
Land-use permits, building codes and infrastructure siting decide exposure for decades. When development approval is separated from hazard information, each permit adds a little risk that no single decision appears to own.
Response crowds out prevention
Emergency response is visible and funded after each event; prevention competes with every other budget line. Repeated reconstruction rebuilds the same vulnerability unless recovery is tied to risk reduction by rule.
Mandates without means
Laws assign duties to local governments that lack the staff, data or funds to carry them out. Responsibility is decentralised while capacity is not, and implementation fails at the level where exposure is decided.
Cascading and systemic losses
A hazard that disables power, transport or supply chains spreads losses far beyond its footprint. Sector-by-sector plans miss these dependencies unless a coordinating mandate requires them to be assessed together.
Hazards now in Africa.
Population density, flood water and active fires over Africa, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards now, for this page
Keyboard, with the map focused
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Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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Hazards now, framed on Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NOAA GOES-East ABI GeoColorSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: NOAA GOES-East ABI GeoColor (CIRA). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (20 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National disaster risk reduction strategy adopted and implemented in line with Sendai | score (Sendai indicator E-1) | annual | Sendai Framework Monitor, national self-report | DECLARED |
| Local governments with disaster risk reduction strategies | percent of local governments (Sendai indicator E-2) | annual | Sendai Framework Monitor, national self-report | DECLARED |
| Legal and institutional mandate for disaster risk management | categorical, by function and level of government | periodic review | National legislation and gazettes | Published statistics |
| Public expenditure on disaster risk reduction | share of total budget, as tagged | annual | Budget tagging and public expenditure reviews | Published statistics |
| Multi-hazard early warning governance | score (Sendai target G indicators) | annual | Sendai Framework Monitor, national self-report | DECLARED |
| Lack of coping capacity, institutional dimension | index score | annual | INFORM Risk Index | ESTIMATED |
| Recovery framework in place after a major disaster | yes or no, with scope | per event | Post-disaster needs assessments | REPORTED |
Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information.
Three families of instruments side by side against the baseline, each with its own lag and adoption speed, under the coverage and compliance you set; effect sizes are teaching values to replace with evidence. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast. The map on this page shows Africa; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Baseline trend of the outcome
- 2.0% a year
- Coverage of the instrument
- 70%
- Compliance
- 75%
- Effect size, against the teaching value
- 100%
- Years ahead
- 20 years
Readouts
- Largest reduction at the horizon
- Regulation
- Its reduction against the baseline
- 21%
Numbers, methods and sources
| Year | Baseline | Regulation | Economic incentive | Information and capacity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100.0 | 99.5 | 98.8 | 99.1 |
| 1 | 102.0 | 101.2 | 100.1 | 99.8 |
| 2 | 104.0 | 102.5 | 101.1 | 99.9 |
| 3 | 106.1 | 103.5 | 101.6 | 100.0 |
| 4 | 108.2 | 103.7 | 101.8 | 100.7 |
| 5 | 110.4 | 103.2 | 101.7 | 102.1 |
| 6 | 112.6 | 102.0 | 101.6 | 103.9 |
| 7 | 114.9 | 100.4 | 101.6 | 105.9 |
| 8 | 117.2 | 99.2 | 102.1 | 108.0 |
| 9 | 119.5 | 98.6 | 102.9 | 110.1 |
| 10 | 121.9 | 98.9 | 104.2 | 112.3 |
| 11 | 124.3 | 99.7 | 105.7 | 114.5 |
| 12 | 126.8 | 101.1 | 107.4 | 116.8 |
| 13 | 129.4 | 102.7 | 109.4 | 119.2 |
| 14 | 131.9 | 104.5 | 111.4 | 121.6 |
| 15 | 134.6 | 106.5 | 113.5 | 124.0 |
| 16 | 137.3 | 108.5 | 115.7 | 126.5 |
| 17 | 140.0 | 110.7 | 118.0 | 129.0 |
| 18 | 142.8 | 112.9 | 120.4 | 131.6 |
| 19 | 145.7 | 115.1 | 122.8 | 134.2 |
| 20 | 148.6 | 117.4 | 125.2 | 136.9 |
Methods
- Tools of government Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan
- Carrots, sticks and sermons Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction
- Diffusion of innovations Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page's map can draw:
- Borders Natural Earth
- Cities Natural Earth
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Policy Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Policy Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Foundations and Governance in Standards
- Published in Policy Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Governance, Policy and International Affairs in Academy
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| Sendai Framework Monitor (UNDRR) | National reporting on the global targets and indicators, including national and local strategies | Public, UN terms of use |
| DesInventar Sendai | National disaster loss databases at sub-national resolution | Free and open, attribution |
| INFORM Risk Index (European Commission JRC) | Composite risk index with a lack of coping capacity dimension | Free and open, attribution |
| UNDRR Global Assessment Report | Periodic review of disaster risk and its governance | Free, UN terms |
| Post-disaster needs assessments (EU, UN and World Bank) | Joint assessments of damage, loss and recovery needs, with governance findings | Public reports, publisher terms |
| IFRC Disaster Law database | Compiled national disaster risk management laws and legal reviews | Free with attribution, publisher terms |
| National legal gazettes | Disaster management acts, regulations and mandates as enacted | Public sector information, national terms |
From mandate to evaluation, by pillar.
The steps an instrument takes from mandate to evaluation, each with the pillar that runs it, and the decisions that stay with the authority. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows Africa; the model itself is not tied to a place.
- Mandate and problem framing Competent authority (outside the programme)
A competent authority frames the problem and the mandate under its own rules. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Evidence and system model Foundry
The system is modelled with its feedbacks, data and stated limits. OECD (2014), principle 2 - Options appraised with scenarios Foundry
Instruments are compared under scenarios, with uncertainty shown. Hood (1983) - Exercise with stakeholders Universe
The options are tested in an exercise with those who would implement and bear them. OECD (2014), principle 3 - Standard or guidance drafted Nexus Standards
What works is codified as a standard or guidance, open to comment. Nexus Standards process - Decision by the authority Competent authority (outside the programme)
The authority decides, outside the programme, with the evidence on record. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Capacity and training Risk Academy
Those who implement are trained on the decided instrument and its data. Sendai Framework (2015), priority 2 - Monitoring and public report Reports
Indicators are published with sources, limits and corrections. OECD (2014), principle 5 - Evaluation and revision Nexus Standards
Results return to the standard and the model: the cycle closes. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)
Methods
- Policy cycle Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press
- Governance of critical risks OECD (2014), Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks
- Layered drawing of directed graphs Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Policy Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Policy Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Foundations and Governance in Standards
- Published in Policy Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Governance, Policy and International Affairs in Academy
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Policy Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| National legislatures | Whether disaster risk management law assigns clear duties, powers and funding across levels of government | Comparative review of disaster laws; gaps between assigned duties and resourced functions |
| National disaster management authorities | How to structure the national strategy and the national platform that coordinates it | Strategy elements compared with Sendai priorities; self-reported progress with its declared label |
| Ministries of finance and planning | How much to allocate to prevention, and how to tag and track it | Budget tagging approaches; evaluations of prevention programmes with their identification strategy |
| Local governments | Which land-use, building and preparedness measures to adopt and enforce | Local strategy coverage; comparative cases of enforcement and the institutional conditions behind them |
Outputs this topic produces
- Policy primer on the legal and institutional elements of a national disaster risk reduction strategy
- Comparative brief on how mandates and budgets are shared between national and local governments
- Review of prevention spending tagging methods and what each can and cannot show
- Dialogue records from exchanges with national platforms for disaster risk reduction
Exercise a cascade in disaster risk reduction policy with the people who decide.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Disaster risk reduction: the hazards it names, the systems and communities that carry the loss, the controls and institutions that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating event and step through the cascade to see where mandates meet and which decisions fall to whom. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise for dialogue, not a forecast, an assessment or a position. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Tropical cyclone
- Flash flood
- Heatwave
- Ice-jam flood
- HIV epidemic
- Earthquake
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- Intense rainfall (set off downstream)
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Dangerous surf (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Extreme fire weather (set off downstream)
- Wildfire (set off downstream)
- Heat-driven grid stress (set off downstream)
- Agricultural drought (set off downstream)
- Flash drought (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-1The UNI and the artefact catalogue (grammar v0.2: domain, sector, region and environment segments)NS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-3bDataset and product metadata profile (STAC, DCAT, PROV-O)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-C15Loss, damage and impact accountingNRS-H114Hazard family: Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks (NHS-1 soc.macro-fiscal)NRS-K20Domain pack profile: Climate adaptation (DOMAIN-020)NRS-H54Hazard family: Signal and platform disruption (NHS-1 cyber.platform)NRS-H65Hazard family: Planetary boundary transgressions (NHS-1 planet.boundary)NRS-H119Hazard family: Cultural heritage loss (NHS-1 soc.heritage)
Observation
- DesInventar disaster loss databases (listed for reference)
- INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
- Global SDG Indicators Database (listed for reference)
- EM-DAT international disaster database (listed for reference)
- Number of deaths and missing persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
- Number of directly affected people attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
- Damage to critical infrastructure attributed to disasters
- Number of countries that adopt and implement national DRR strategies
- Total public international support for national disaster risk reduction actions (Sendai indicator F-1)
- Number of countries that have multi-hazard early warning systems
- Number of deaths, missing persons and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
Example geography
- Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Surface air temperature, daytime (AIRS), NASA GIBS
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
What experts ask.
Policy researchers in disaster risk reduction focus on governance and implementation.
- How are responsibilities for disaster risk divided between national agencies, sector ministries and local government?
- Do national strategies change investment, planning and building decisions, or remain separate from them?
- How are local governments resourced to carry out their disaster risk responsibilities?
- How is progress measured, and do indicators capture risk reduction or only activity?
- How are the most exposed and vulnerable groups represented in disaster risk governance?
How disaster risk reduction policy is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.
The instruments, mandates, actors and accountability arrangements a policymaker, diplomat or development agency works with, citing the agreements that set them. Structures follow the frameworks named. Any state or progress drawn is illustrative, not a record.
Policy instrument matrix
The kinds of instrument available on disaster risk reduction policy, by level of government and cooperation.
| Instrument type | Local | National | Regional | Global |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory | Zoning, building codes | Laws, standards, licensing | Harmonised rules | Conventions and treaties |
| Economic | Local levies, grants | Budget lines, taxes, insurance schemes | Risk pools, regional funds | Financing mechanisms |
| Information | Local warnings | Disclosure, early warning, statistics | Data sharing arrangements | Global monitoring and reporting |
| Institutional | Local committees | Lead agencies, coordination councils | Regional bodies and secretariats | Multilateral mandates |
| Cooperative | Community agreements | Partnership compacts | Memoranda and joint programmes | Agreements and joint commitments |
From strategy on paper to reduced risk.
Many countries have adopted disaster risk reduction laws, strategies and coordination platforms, often following international frameworks. The persistent challenge is the gap between these arrangements and the decisions that create risk: urban expansion into hazardous areas, weak enforcement of building standards, infrastructure that ignores hazards, and recovery that rebuilds exposure. Disaster agencies frequently have convening roles but limited influence over ministries that control those decisions.
Effective governance tends to combine high-level ownership, legal duties for sector ministries and local government, dedicated funding, accessible risk information and accountability for results. Monitoring that counts plans adopted rather than risk reduced can create an appearance of progress without change.
Why now: with the Sendai Framework's 2030 end date approaching, countries are reviewing their national strategies and preparing for what follows. Policy Nexus compares policy designs and implementation records, and offers reviewed comparisons to country and regional editions of Reports.
How the evidence is built, and where it stops.
- 01
Governance analysis
Comparing laws, mandates and coordination platforms with policy and institutional science. Practice may diverge from formal arrangements.
- 02
Indicator review
Assessing what monitoring frameworks measure. Many indicators track inputs rather than outcomes.
- 03
Impact evaluation
Estimating effects of policies with causal inference. Disasters are rare and variable, which limits attribution.
- 04
Practitioner dialogue
Structured exchange between public servants through policy dialogues. Dialogue evidence is experiential and needs triangulation.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Policy, institutional and decision scienceMandate mapping for a cross-sector risk · Review of regulatory impact assessmentsApplied here
- 02Decision analysis under uncertaintyOption appraisal for a policy instrument · Adaptive pathways for public planningApplied here
- 03Causal inference and impact evaluationStaggered adoption of a reform · Eligibility thresholds in programmesApplied here
- 04Game theory and mechanism designStability of a transboundary agreement · Design of a regional risk poolApplied here
Questions and answers.
What is a national platform for disaster risk reduction?
Why are Sendai indicators labelled declared?
Can the effect of prevention be measured?
Does Policy Nexus issue warnings?
Why do national strategies often fail to reduce risk?
Does Policy Nexus help countries write strategies?
How does this connect to disaster finance?
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