GRF · Policy Nexus
Cross-border policy
Rivers, power grids, pipelines and trade corridors cross borders, and so do the risks they carry: an upstream dam, a grid fault or a closed crossing affects every state connected to it. Cross border policy covers the treaties, joint institutions, rules and data sharing through which states govern shared resources and infrastructure. This page sets out how risk propagates across jurisdictions, how cooperation is measured, and which institutions hold the decisions.
Cross-border policy in seven parts.
- 01The questionCross-border policy: how the risk develops
- 02IndicatorsWhat is measured, and how well
- 03SourcesWhere the evidence comes from
- 04DecisionsWho decides, and what the evidence serves
- 05Core questionsWhat experts ask
- 06Mechanisms and driversInterdependence without shared authority
- 07Methods and dataHow the evidence is built, and where it stops
Cross-border policy: how the risk develops.
Cooperation on basins, grids and corridors. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Unilateral action, shared effect
A decision taken in one state, such as reservoir operation, an export restriction or a grid configuration, changes conditions in its neighbours. Without notification and consultation duties, effects arrive as surprises and then as disputes.
Incomplete agreements
Treaties often lack allocation rules for extremes, dispute settlement or provisions for new uses. Agreements written for average conditions are tested by droughts, outages and crises their drafters did not anticipate.
Incentives to free ride
Each state gains from shared investment in resilience but may prefer others to pay. Cooperation holds when gains are visible, side payments or issue linkage are possible and joint bodies can verify commitments.
Data asymmetry
States may withhold monitoring data for strategic reasons. Without agreed exchange, partners plan on different evidence, and trust erodes at the moment cooperation is needed most.
People and hazards in Africa.
Population density, night lights and flood water over Africa, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
People and hazards, for this page
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Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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People and hazards, framed on Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NOAA GOES-East ABI GeoColorSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: NOAA GOES-East ABI GeoColor (CIRA). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Optional layers (5 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transboundary basin area covered by an operational arrangement | percent of transboundary basin area (SDG indicator 6.5.2) | triennial | UNECE and UNESCO national reporting | DECLARED |
| Joint body with mandate and secretariat | yes or no, with functions | periodic review | Treaty texts and joint body records | Published statistics |
| Data and information exchange provisions | categorical, by data type and frequency | periodic review | Treaty texts and protocols | Published statistics |
| Cross-border capacity allocation rules | rule type and allocation method | annual | Regional grid codes and regulator decisions | Published statistics |
| Border and corridor procedures | score by component | periodic | World Bank Logistics Performance Index | ESTIMATED |
| Disputes and their settlement route | count by forum | event-based | Treaty bodies and court records | OBSERVED |
| Ratification status of relevant conventions | status by state | continuous | UN Treaty Collection | Published statistics |
Policy tracker.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Policy tracker
Cross-border policy · Member state A · Session 1
Policy cycle
Options appraisal, planning law
| A · guidance only | 29 | Low | Mixed | High |
| B · duty with standards | 60 | Medium | Positive | Medium |
| C · duty, standards, funding | 82 | High | Positive | Low |
Decision record
- Owner
- Policy owner
- Decision by
- Legislative committee
- Evidence
- synthesis SY-38
- GRF role
- convenes, does not decide
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| UN Treaty Collection | Status of multilateral treaties deposited with the Secretary-General, including ratifications and reservations | Public, UN terms |
| SDG indicator 6.5.2 reporting (UNECE and UNESCO) | National reports on transboundary water cooperation arrangements | Public, UN terms |
| International Freshwater Treaties Database (Oregon State University) | Texts and coding of international water agreements | Free for research with attribution |
| ENTSO-E Transparency Platform | Cross-border flows, capacities and outages in the European grid | Free with attribution, ENTSO-E terms |
| Energy Community Secretariat implementation reports | Implementation of the energy acquis by contracting parties | Public reports, publisher terms |
| World Bank Logistics Performance Index | Assessments of customs, infrastructure and border procedures | Open, CC BY 4.0 |
| Records of river basin organisations and joint commissions | Agreements, decisions, monitoring data and meeting records | By agreement with each body |
Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information.
Three families of instruments side by side against the baseline, each with its own lag and adoption speed, under the coverage and compliance you set; effect sizes are teaching values to replace with evidence. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast. The map on this page shows Africa; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Baseline trend of the outcome
- 2.0% a year
- Coverage of the instrument
- 70%
- Compliance
- 75%
- Effect size, against the teaching value
- 100%
- Years ahead
- 20 years
Readouts
- Largest reduction at the horizon
- Regulation
- Its reduction against the baseline
- 21%
Numbers, methods and sources
| Year | Baseline | Regulation | Economic incentive | Information and capacity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100.0 | 99.5 | 98.8 | 99.1 |
| 1 | 102.0 | 101.2 | 100.1 | 99.8 |
| 2 | 104.0 | 102.5 | 101.1 | 99.9 |
| 3 | 106.1 | 103.5 | 101.6 | 100.0 |
| 4 | 108.2 | 103.7 | 101.8 | 100.7 |
| 5 | 110.4 | 103.2 | 101.7 | 102.1 |
| 6 | 112.6 | 102.0 | 101.6 | 103.9 |
| 7 | 114.9 | 100.4 | 101.6 | 105.9 |
| 8 | 117.2 | 99.2 | 102.1 | 108.0 |
| 9 | 119.5 | 98.6 | 102.9 | 110.1 |
| 10 | 121.9 | 98.9 | 104.2 | 112.3 |
| 11 | 124.3 | 99.7 | 105.7 | 114.5 |
| 12 | 126.8 | 101.1 | 107.4 | 116.8 |
| 13 | 129.4 | 102.7 | 109.4 | 119.2 |
| 14 | 131.9 | 104.5 | 111.4 | 121.6 |
| 15 | 134.6 | 106.5 | 113.5 | 124.0 |
| 16 | 137.3 | 108.5 | 115.7 | 126.5 |
| 17 | 140.0 | 110.7 | 118.0 | 129.0 |
| 18 | 142.8 | 112.9 | 120.4 | 131.6 |
| 19 | 145.7 | 115.1 | 122.8 | 134.2 |
| 20 | 148.6 | 117.4 | 125.2 | 136.9 |
Methods
- Tools of government Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan
- Carrots, sticks and sermons Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction
- Diffusion of innovations Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page's map can draw:
- Borders Natural Earth
- Cities Natural Earth
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Policy Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Policy Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Foundations and Governance in Standards
- Published in Policy Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Governance, Policy and International Affairs in Academy
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Policy Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Ministries of foreign affairs | Whether to negotiate, ratify or amend agreements on shared resources and infrastructure | Comparative treaty provisions; ratification records; dispute histories |
| River basin organisations and joint commissions | How to share data, allocate water in extremes and resolve differences | Comparative allocation and data-exchange provisions; records of how bodies acted in past extremes |
| Energy regulators and transmission system operators | How to allocate cross-border capacity and coordinate in emergencies | Regional codes and emergency coordination arrangements compared |
| Regional economic communities | How to harmonise corridor rules and border procedures | Comparative corridor agreements and border-procedure assessments |
Outputs this topic produces
- Policy primer on the elements of durable cross-border agreements
- Comparative brief on joint body mandates, data exchange and dispute settlement
- Review of benefit-sharing and cost-sharing arrangements on shared infrastructure
- Dialogue records from exchanges between basin, grid and corridor institutions
From mandate to evaluation, by pillar.
The steps an instrument takes from mandate to evaluation, each with the pillar that runs it, and the decisions that stay with the authority. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows Africa; the model itself is not tied to a place.
- Mandate and problem framing Competent authority (outside the programme)
A competent authority frames the problem and the mandate under its own rules. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Evidence and system model Foundry
The system is modelled with its feedbacks, data and stated limits. OECD (2014), principle 2 - Options appraised with scenarios Foundry
Instruments are compared under scenarios, with uncertainty shown. Hood (1983) - Exercise with stakeholders Universe
The options are tested in an exercise with those who would implement and bear them. OECD (2014), principle 3 - Standard or guidance drafted Nexus Standards
What works is codified as a standard or guidance, open to comment. Nexus Standards process - Decision by the authority Competent authority (outside the programme)
The authority decides, outside the programme, with the evidence on record. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Capacity and training Risk Academy
Those who implement are trained on the decided instrument and its data. Sendai Framework (2015), priority 2 - Monitoring and public report Reports
Indicators are published with sources, limits and corrections. OECD (2014), principle 5 - Evaluation and revision Nexus Standards
Results return to the standard and the model: the cycle closes. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)
Methods
- Policy cycle Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press
- Governance of critical risks OECD (2014), Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks
- Layered drawing of directed graphs Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Policy Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Policy Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Foundations and Governance in Standards
- Published in Policy Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Governance, Policy and International Affairs in Academy
What experts ask.
Experts in cross-border policy ask how states can manage what none controls alone.
- Which shared systems create the strongest interdependencies between neighbouring states?
- What institutions, such as basin organisations, grid agreements and corridor authorities, support cooperation, and how effective are they?
- How do upstream and downstream, or exporting and importing, states reconcile different interests?
- How is data shared across borders for early warning and system management?
- How does cooperation hold up under political tension or crisis?
Exercise a cascade in cross-border policy with the people who decide.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Political and governance risk standards: the hazards it names, the systems and communities that carry the loss, the controls and institutions that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating event and step through the cascade to see where mandates meet and which decisions fall to whom. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise for dialogue, not a forecast, an assessment or a position. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NRS-H112Hazard family: Governance and institutional failure (NHS-1 soc.governance)NRS-U9Universe platform profile: Financial Regulation NexusNRS-H59Hazard family: Economic shocks and governance failure (NHS-1 soc.economic)NRS-H118Hazard family: Organised crime and illicit economies (NHS-1 soc.crime)NRS-A5Built-in licensing and rightsNRS-U24Universe platform profile: Policy Nexus
Observation
- Worldwide Governance Indicators (listed for reference)
- V-Dem dataset (listed for reference)
- Global SDG Indicators Database (listed for reference)
- Proportion of population satisfied with their last experience of public services
- Proportion of population who believe decision-making is inclusive and responsive
- Number of countries that adopt and implement national DRR strategies in line with the Sendai Framework
Interdependence without shared authority.
Shared systems create mutual dependence, but no state can direct the others. Game theory and institutional research show that cooperation is more likely when interactions are repeated, benefits are shared visibly, information is exchanged, and institutions provide predictable rules and dispute resolution. Asymmetries, such as an upstream state's control of river flows or an exporter's control of energy supply, can create leverage and mistrust.
Crises test cooperation. Droughts sharpen competition for water; energy shortages create pressure to restrict exports; disasters or conflicts disrupt corridors. Arrangements designed for normal conditions may not specify what happens under stress. Where data-sharing and joint early warning exist, they can reduce damage on both sides of a border.
Why now: shared systems such as basins, grids and shipping corridors have shown in recent years how quickly a failure crosses borders. Policy Nexus compares cross-border arrangements and convenes the authorities that share a system, with reviewed findings offered to the Regional Systems series of Reports.
How cross-border policy is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.
The instruments, mandates, actors and accountability arrangements a policymaker, diplomat or development agency works with, citing the agreements that set them. Structures follow the frameworks named. Any state or progress drawn is illustrative, not a record.
Policy instrument matrix
The kinds of instrument available on cross-border policy, by level of government and cooperation.
| Instrument type | Local | National | Regional | Global |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory | Zoning, building codes | Laws, standards, licensing | Harmonised rules | Conventions and treaties |
| Economic | Local levies, grants | Budget lines, taxes, insurance schemes | Risk pools, regional funds | Financing mechanisms |
| Information | Local warnings | Disclosure, early warning, statistics | Data sharing arrangements | Global monitoring and reporting |
| Institutional | Local committees | Lead agencies, coordination councils | Regional bodies and secretariats | Multilateral mandates |
| Cooperative | Community agreements | Partnership compacts | Memoranda and joint programmes | Agreements and joint commitments |
How the evidence is built, and where it stops.
- 01
Treaty and institution analysis
Comparing agreements and organisations with policy and institutional science. Formal agreements may not be implemented.
- 02
Game-theoretic analysis
Modelling incentives for cooperation with game theory and mechanism design. Simplifies domestic politics.
- 03
System interdependence mapping
Mapping physical links and dependencies. Data on cross-border flows may be sensitive.
- 04
Dialogue and exchange
Bringing public servants from neighbouring states together through policy dialogues. Requires trust and agreed rules.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Game theory and mechanism designStability of a transboundary agreement · Design of a regional risk poolApplied here
- 02Policy, institutional and decision scienceMandate mapping for a cross-sector risk · Review of regulatory impact assessmentsApplied here
- 03Decision analysis under uncertaintyOption appraisal for a policy instrument · Adaptive pathways for public planningApplied here
- 04Causal inference and impact evaluationStaggered adoption of a reform · Eligibility thresholds in programmesApplied here
Questions and answers.
What makes a cross-border agreement durable?
Why model cooperation as a game?
Does Policy Nexus mediate between states?
Why do states cooperate on shared rivers?
Does GRF mediate between states?
How is sensitive data handled in cross-border dialogue?
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