GRF · Policy Nexus
Inclusive development governance
Development policy reaches people through institutions, and institutions do not reach everyone equally. Inclusive development governance concerns who takes part in decisions, who is represented, who can hold power to account and who is served by public institutions. This page sets out how exclusion develops and is reproduced through governance, how participation, representation and accountability are measured, and which institutions hold the decisions.
Inclusive development governance on the record.
Inclusive development governance: how the risk develops.
Institutions, social inclusion and development policy. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Exclusion from decisions
Groups absent from legislatures, consultations and local councils see their needs underweighted in budgets and rules. Underrepresentation becomes underinvestment, which in turn reduces their capacity to take part.
Unequal access to institutions
Lack of legal identity, documentation, language access or distance from services keeps people outside programmes they are entitled to. Formal rights do not become real access without administrative reach.
Weak accountability
Where courts, audit bodies, media and civil society cannot scrutinise power, resources are captured by those with influence. Capture concentrates benefits and shifts risks onto those with the least voice.
Shocks deepen inequality
Disasters and economic shocks hit excluded groups hardest, and recovery reaches them last. Without targeted design, response and recovery policies widen the gaps they intend to close.
People and hazards in Africa.
Population density, night lights and flood water over Africa, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
People and hazards, for this page
Keyboard, with the map focused
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Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
People and hazards, framed on Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NOAA GOES-East ABI GeoColorSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: NOAA GOES-East ABI GeoColor (CIRA). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Optional layers (5 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women in national parliaments | percent of seats | monthly | IPU Parline | Published statistics |
| Participatory and deliberative democracy indices | index, interval scale | annual | V-Dem dataset | ESTIMATED |
| Voice and accountability | estimate and percentile rank | annual | World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators | ESTIMATED |
| Satisfaction with last experience of public services | percent of population (SDG indicator 16.6.2) | periodic | National household surveys | ESTIMATED |
| Birth registration completeness | percent of children under five registered | periodic | UNICEF and national civil registration data | Published statistics |
| Constitutional, statutory or policy guarantees of public access to information | categorical (SDG indicator 16.10.2) | annual | UNESCO monitoring of access to information laws | Published statistics |
| Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index | index | annual | UNDP Human Development Report | ESTIMATED |
| Perceived responsiveness of government | percent of respondents | survey round | Afrobarometer and other regional barometers | ESTIMATED |
Consultation desk.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Consultation desk
Inclusive development governance · DRR strategy refresh · Consultation CN-72
Responses by stakeholder group
Themes
| Local funding | 122 | Concern | Yes |
| Data sharing | 69 | Support | No |
| Enforcement | 46 | Oppose | Under review |
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| IPU Parline | Composition, structure and working methods of national parliaments, including women and young members | Free with attribution, IPU terms |
| V-Dem dataset | Expert-coded indicators of democracy, participation, deliberation and accountability | Open, CC BY-SA 4.0 |
| World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators | Voice and accountability, rule of law and control of corruption estimates | Open, CC BY 4.0 |
| UN SDG Global Database, Goal 16 | Published indicators on institutions, participation, access to justice and information | Free, UN terms |
| Afrobarometer | Public attitude surveys on democracy, governance and public services | Free for research with attribution |
| UNDP Human Development Report data | Inequality-adjusted and gender development indices | Open, CC BY 3.0 IGO |
| Bertelsmann Transformation Index | Expert assessments of governance, participation and social inclusion | Free with attribution, publisher terms |
Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information.
Three families of instruments side by side against the baseline, each with its own lag and adoption speed, under the coverage and compliance you set; effect sizes are teaching values to replace with evidence. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast. The map on this page shows Africa; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Baseline trend of the outcome
- 2.0% a year
- Coverage of the instrument
- 70%
- Compliance
- 75%
- Effect size, against the teaching value
- 100%
- Years ahead
- 20 years
Readouts
- Largest reduction at the horizon
- Regulation
- Its reduction against the baseline
- 21%
Numbers, methods and sources
| Year | Baseline | Regulation | Economic incentive | Information and capacity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100.0 | 99.5 | 98.8 | 99.1 |
| 1 | 102.0 | 101.2 | 100.1 | 99.8 |
| 2 | 104.0 | 102.5 | 101.1 | 99.9 |
| 3 | 106.1 | 103.5 | 101.6 | 100.0 |
| 4 | 108.2 | 103.7 | 101.8 | 100.7 |
| 5 | 110.4 | 103.2 | 101.7 | 102.1 |
| 6 | 112.6 | 102.0 | 101.6 | 103.9 |
| 7 | 114.9 | 100.4 | 101.6 | 105.9 |
| 8 | 117.2 | 99.2 | 102.1 | 108.0 |
| 9 | 119.5 | 98.6 | 102.9 | 110.1 |
| 10 | 121.9 | 98.9 | 104.2 | 112.3 |
| 11 | 124.3 | 99.7 | 105.7 | 114.5 |
| 12 | 126.8 | 101.1 | 107.4 | 116.8 |
| 13 | 129.4 | 102.7 | 109.4 | 119.2 |
| 14 | 131.9 | 104.5 | 111.4 | 121.6 |
| 15 | 134.6 | 106.5 | 113.5 | 124.0 |
| 16 | 137.3 | 108.5 | 115.7 | 126.5 |
| 17 | 140.0 | 110.7 | 118.0 | 129.0 |
| 18 | 142.8 | 112.9 | 120.4 | 131.6 |
| 19 | 145.7 | 115.1 | 122.8 | 134.2 |
| 20 | 148.6 | 117.4 | 125.2 | 136.9 |
Methods
- Tools of government Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan
- Carrots, sticks and sermons Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction
- Diffusion of innovations Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page's map can draw:
- Borders Natural Earth
- Cities Natural Earth
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Policy Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Policy Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Foundations and Governance in Standards
- Published in Policy Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Governance, Policy and International Affairs in Academy
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Policy Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| National legislatures and electoral management bodies | How to widen representation through electoral rules, quotas or reserved seats | Comparative electoral and representation arrangements; IPU records |
| Ministries of local government | How to devolve functions and funds with participation and accountability | Comparative decentralisation arrangements and evaluations of participatory mechanisms |
| Ombudsman institutions and national human rights institutions | Where administrative exclusion denies people their entitlements | Comparative complaint and inquiry practice; Goal 16 indicators with their labels |
| Supreme audit institutions | Whether programmes reach the groups they target | Audit approaches to distributional reach; comparative findings by theme |
Outputs this topic produces
- Policy primer on participation and representation in development decisions
- Comparative brief on accountability institutions and their reach
- Review of evidence on participatory budgeting, public consultation and community-driven development
- Dialogue records that note who took part and whose views were missing
From mandate to evaluation, by pillar.
The steps an instrument takes from mandate to evaluation, each with the pillar that runs it, and the decisions that stay with the authority. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows Africa; the model itself is not tied to a place.
- Mandate and problem framing Competent authority (outside the programme)
A competent authority frames the problem and the mandate under its own rules. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Evidence and system model Foundry
The system is modelled with its feedbacks, data and stated limits. OECD (2014), principle 2 - Options appraised with scenarios Foundry
Instruments are compared under scenarios, with uncertainty shown. Hood (1983) - Exercise with stakeholders Universe
The options are tested in an exercise with those who would implement and bear them. OECD (2014), principle 3 - Standard or guidance drafted Nexus Standards
What works is codified as a standard or guidance, open to comment. Nexus Standards process - Decision by the authority Competent authority (outside the programme)
The authority decides, outside the programme, with the evidence on record. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Capacity and training Risk Academy
Those who implement are trained on the decided instrument and its data. Sendai Framework (2015), priority 2 - Monitoring and public report Reports
Indicators are published with sources, limits and corrections. OECD (2014), principle 5 - Evaluation and revision Nexus Standards
Results return to the standard and the model: the cycle closes. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)
Methods
- Policy cycle Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press
- Governance of critical risks OECD (2014), Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks
- Layered drawing of directed graphs Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Policy Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Policy Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Foundations and Governance in Standards
- Published in Policy Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Governance, Policy and International Affairs in Academy
What experts ask.
Researchers on inclusive governance ask whose voice shapes development and who benefits.
- Which groups are excluded from decisions, services and protection, and why?
- How do institutional arrangements, such as decentralisation and participation, affect inclusion?
- How does exclusion increase vulnerability to shocks?
- How can accountability to affected communities be strengthened?
- How can inclusion be measured meaningfully, beyond counting participation?
Exercise a cascade in inclusive development governance with the people who decide.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Political and governance risk standards: the hazards it names, the systems and communities that carry the loss, the controls and institutions that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating event and step through the cascade to see where mandates meet and which decisions fall to whom. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise for dialogue, not a forecast, an assessment or a position. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NRS-H112Hazard family: Governance and institutional failure (NHS-1 soc.governance)NRS-U9Universe platform profile: Financial Regulation NexusNRS-H59Hazard family: Economic shocks and governance failure (NHS-1 soc.economic)NRS-H118Hazard family: Organised crime and illicit economies (NHS-1 soc.crime)NRS-A5Built-in licensing and rightsNRS-U24Universe platform profile: Policy Nexus
Observation
- Worldwide Governance Indicators (listed for reference)
- V-Dem dataset (listed for reference)
- Global SDG Indicators Database (listed for reference)
- Proportion of population satisfied with their last experience of public services
- Proportion of population who believe decision-making is inclusive and responsive
- Number of countries that adopt and implement national DRR strategies in line with the Sendai Framework
Exclusion and vulnerability reinforce each other.
Exclusion operates through law, institutions, social norms and geography. Groups excluded from land rights, formal employment, identity documents or political representation often have the least protection when shocks occur and the least influence over decisions that affect their exposure. Vulnerability to disasters, economic crises and health emergencies therefore tracks patterns of exclusion closely.
Institutions can widen or narrow these gaps. Decentralisation can bring decisions closer to people but may reinforce local elites; participation processes can give voice or become formalities. Inclusive governance research examines which arrangements actually shift outcomes, and under what conditions.
Why now: the people most exposed to shared risks are often least represented in the decisions that shape them. Policy Nexus compares participation arrangements and convenes dialogue in which affected groups take part on their own terms, with dissent recorded.
How inclusive development governance is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.
The instruments, mandates, actors and accountability arrangements a policymaker, diplomat or development agency works with, citing the agreements that set them. Structures follow the frameworks named. Any state or progress drawn is illustrative, not a record.
Policy instrument matrix
The kinds of instrument available on inclusive development governance, by level of government and cooperation.
| Instrument type | Local | National | Regional | Global |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory | Zoning, building codes | Laws, standards, licensing | Harmonised rules | Conventions and treaties |
| Economic | Local levies, grants | Budget lines, taxes, insurance schemes | Risk pools, regional funds | Financing mechanisms |
| Information | Local warnings | Disclosure, early warning, statistics | Data sharing arrangements | Global monitoring and reporting |
| Institutional | Local committees | Lead agencies, coordination councils | Regional bodies and secretariats | Multilateral mandates |
| Cooperative | Community agreements | Partnership compacts | Memoranda and joint programmes | Agreements and joint commitments |
How the evidence is built, and where it stops.
- 01
Institutional analysis
Examining how rules and practices include or exclude, with policy and institutional science. Informal norms are hard to observe.
- 02
Disaggregated data analysis
Analysing outcomes by gender, age, disability, ethnicity and location. Disaggregated data is often missing.
- 03
Participatory research
Engaging excluded groups as researchers and informants. Requires care to avoid extraction.
- 04
Evaluation
Assessing effects of inclusion measures with causal inference. Effects may take years to appear.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Policy, institutional and decision scienceMandate mapping for a cross-sector risk · Review of regulatory impact assessmentsApplied here
- 02Causal inference and impact evaluationStaggered adoption of a reform · Eligibility thresholds in programmesApplied here
- 03Game theory and mechanism designStability of a transboundary agreement · Design of a regional risk poolApplied here
- 04Decision analysis under uncertaintyOption appraisal for a policy instrument · Adaptive pathways for public planningApplied here
Questions and answers.
What does inclusive governance mean here?
Why are many governance indices labelled estimated?
Whose views do dialogue records include?
Is inclusion only a matter of fairness?
How does this topic relate to the chapter?
Does GRF speak for marginalised groups?
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