Risk interconnection
A causal or reinforcing link between two global risks, such that one materialising raises the likelihood or severity of the other. The GRPS asks experts to map these links.
Systemic risk
Risk that arises from interdependencies within a system, so that a failure in one part can cascade across sectors or borders; the IRGC notes such risks require international coordination.
Complex global shock
In the UN Pact for the Future (2024), an event with severely disruptive and adverse consequences for a significant proportion of countries and the global population, with impacts across multiple sectors.
Critical risk
In the OECD framework, a threat or hazard that poses the most strategically significant risk because of its likelihood and the national significance of its disruptive consequences.
Global Risks Perception Survey
The World Economic Forum’s annual expert survey behind the Global Risks Report. The 2025-2026 round drew on over 1,300 experts who rated 33 global risks for severity on a 1-7 scale over two-year and ten-year horizons.
Global risk
An event or condition that, if it occurs, would cause significant harm across many countries and sectors at once, and that no single institution can manage alone. The WEF Global Risks Report tracks 33 such risks.
Hybrid threat
Activities with malign intent that combine information manipulation, cyberattacks, economic coercion, covert political manoeuvring, coercive diplomacy or threats of military force (OECD draft revised Recommendation, 2026).
Geoeconomic fragmentation
A policy-driven reversal of global economic integration through restrictions on trade, capital, technology and migration. The IMF estimates trade fragmentation could cost up to 7% of global output in a severe scenario.
Geopolitical acts index
The GPR sub-index built from search categories on the beginning of war, escalation of war and terror acts.
Geopolitical threats index
The GPR sub-index built from search categories on war threats, peace threats, military build-ups, nuclear threats and terror threats.