Policy stress-testing
Testing policy, strategy or project options against a set of scenarios, trends or future events to see how well they hold up under a range of external conditions.
Backcasting
A method that starts from a preferred future and works backwards to identify the steps needed to reach it, used to overcome present bias in planning.
Three horizons
A framework that distinguishes the dominant present system (H1), the emerging pattern that could replace it (H3) and the transitional innovations between them (H2), used to explore pathways for transformation.
Delphi method
A structured questioning technique that uses multiple anonymous rounds of questionnaires to gather, refine and structure the judgements of a panel of experts, measuring both consensus and diversity of views.
Horizon scanning
The systematic collection of insights on emerging trends, weak signals and developments that could affect an organisation or policy area (UK Government Office for Science).
Strategic foresight
A structured discipline for exploring several possible futures so that decisions made today are better prepared for change. The European Commission stresses that foresight is not about predicting or forecasting the future.
Risk management framework
In ISO 31000, the organisational foundations and arrangements that embed risk management, built around leadership and commitment with integration, design, implementation, evaluation and improvement.
Ambiguous risk
A risk on which stakeholders legitimately disagree about values or the meaning of evidence. The IRGC recommends discourse-based management involving the groups with interests or value commitments at stake.
Critical risks
Threats and hazards that pose the most strategically significant risk because of their likelihood and the national significance of their disruptive consequences (OECD, 2014).