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GRF · Foresight Nexus

Regional dialogue

Regional work of Foresight Nexus across the six Consortium regions, each shown with its status. The regions are Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe and Eurasia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and North America.

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01Sequence

The order things happen in.

  1. 01QuestionNational, regional or institutional priority
  2. 02EvidenceSTEM foundation of the platform
  3. 03BuildFoundry
  4. 04OrganiseNexus ecosystem
  5. 05TestUniverse (independent site)
  6. 06PublishReports
  7. 07DecideCompetent authorities and institutions, through NXS-RLS (participants, agreements and handoffs)
  8. 08RenewCorrections and the next annual agenda
02Scope

Regions in Foresight Nexus.

  1. 01

    Horizon scanning

    Signals, emergence and source quality.

  2. 02

    Strategic scenarios

    Plausible alternative futures.

  3. 03

    Deep uncertainty

    Methods when probabilities are contested.

  4. 04

    Technology futures

    Emerging and converging technology.

  5. 05

    Geopolitical futures

    Political economy and strategic shocks.

  6. 06

    Demographic and social futures

    Ageing, migration, trust and cohesion.

03Geography

Hazards and exposure worldwide.

Population density, flood water and active fires across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Hazards and exposure, for this page

About this layer
Evidence
Estimated
Source
Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
Provider
NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
Licence
CC BY 4.0
Vintage
null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
Reached through
this site's data relay, from gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
this site's data relay, from gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
Provider
NASA LANCE FIRMS
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-13
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
Reached through
this site's data relay, from gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
Newest at build
2026-09-14
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
Reached through
this site's data relay, from gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
Provider
NASA LAADS DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
Newest at build
2026-10-12
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
Reached through
this site's data relay, from gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 2 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite measure of haze, smoke and dust through the whole air column on the day shown; an exposure indicator, not ground-level PM2.5, an air quality index or a health warning.
Reached through
this site's data relay, from gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Hazards and exposure, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological SurveySources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (11 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

04Regional foresight

Foresight capacity in regional institutions.

  • The European Commission’s annual Strategic Foresight Report and the ESPAS network of EU institutions.
  • The African Union’s Agenda 2063 long-range framework and its ten-year implementation plans.
  • APEC and ASEAN foresight work on technology and supply chains.
  • ECLAC’s prospective and development planning work in Latin America and the Caribbean.
05Process

How the process runs.

Process explorer · Process

Regional dialogue: Policy question to decision

9 steps5 stages1 gate

Process

Regional dialogue: Policy question to decision

A priority becomes a question, evidence, a decision case and a limited publication; the competent authority decides, never the programme.

  1. 01 Question

    1. 01A priority becomes a questionStep · Universe; national counterpartsA priority becomes a researchable question with stated criteria. National counterparts own the agenda, data and decisions.
    2. 03Scientific and stakeholder challengeStep · the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI); the Global Risks Forum (GRF)Scientific and affected-stakeholder challenge informs mission selection and methods.

  2. 02 Evidence and options

    1. 04Assemble the evidenceStep · GCRIMethods, labelled data and uncertainty are assembled. Every finding carries one of nine evidence labels.
    2. 06Decision case with optionsRecord · The decision owner named in the caseA decision case binds owner, alternatives, evidence and deadline. It needs sensitivity and robustness.

  3. 03 Review and publication

    1. 07G6 · Publication authorisedGate · The Global Risks ForumGRF authorises publication of results that have passed scientific and editorial review. It cannot publish personal data.
    2. 08Publish with method, uncertainty and limitsRecord · ReportsFindings are published with their method, uncertainty and limits. An edition is published after review, not to a calendar.

  4. 04 Outside the programme

    1. 02Competent authority decidesDecision · The competent authorityThe authority or institution decides under its own rules. The authority decides; the programme informs.
    2. 05Action and implementation stay with the ownersActor · The relevant government, operator or licensed institutionDecisions and execution stay with the relevant government, operator or licensed institution. The programme records one only if shared.

  5. 05 Learning

    1. 09Corrections and lessons feed the next agendaStep · UniverseCorrections and lessons feed the next annual agenda. The findings of one year set the mandate of the next.

The Nexus cycle · Decision rights · The programme yearDesigned programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation.

06Status

Work is shown as its record stands.

Programmes are listed as exploring, forming, constituted, active, paused or archived. Country and regional entries appear when a programme record supports them.

All programmes in Foresight Nexus

07Sources

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

08Questions

Questions and answers.

How do I propose work at this level?
Write to the contact form or a regional desk. A proposal receives a reference.
Foresight Nexus

Bring a governance question to the Forum.

Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.

Propose a dialogue See all contact routes
Legal
Show all 18 legal documents

Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.