GRF · Foresight Nexus
Geopolitical futures
Geopolitical futures concern the shifting distribution of power, alliances, trade, conflict and political economy, and the strategic shocks that can reorder them quickly. They are shaped by deliberate choices of states and leaders as well as by structural forces, which makes them hard to forecast and essential to explore. This page sets out how institutions use scenarios, structured judgement and forecasting records to prepare for geopolitical change, and where those methods fall short.
Geopolitical futures in seven parts.
Geopolitical futures: how the risk develops.
Political economy and strategic shocks. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Structural forces and agency
Demography, technology, energy and economic weight move slowly and set the stage; leaders, elections and crises change direction quickly. Geopolitical foresight keeps both in view and does not mistake a trend for a destiny.
Shocks travel through dependence
Wars, sanctions, coups and export bans propagate through trade, energy, finance and supply chains. Interdependence that once dampened conflict can become a channel for coercion.
Judgement and its biases
Most geopolitical assessment rests on expert judgement. Overconfidence, mirror-imaging and anchoring on the recent past are documented failures; structured analytic techniques and scored forecasts make judgement auditable.
Reflexivity
Published forecasts and scenarios can change the behaviour they describe. A warning may prompt prevention; an expectation of conflict may harden positions. Institutions treat disclosure of foresight as a governance choice.
Hazards and exposure in the Arctic.
Population density, flood water and active fires over the Arctic, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE FIRMS
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- GPM IMERG (NASA GES DISC)
- Provider
- NASA GES DISC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite estimate, near real time
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite estimate, near real time. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards and exposure, framed on the Arctic.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA GPM IMERG EarlySources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: NASA GPM IMERG Early. We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (11 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organised violence events | count of events | monthly | Event datasets from news and field reports | OBSERVED |
| Geopolitical risk index | index | monthly | Newspaper text analysis | ESTIMATED |
| Trade-restrictive measures introduced | count of measures | monthly | Policy intervention monitoring | REPORTED |
| Military expenditure | share of GDP | annual | Government budgets, compiled estimates | ESTIMATED |
| Sanctions designations | count of listed entities | monthly | Authority sanctions lists | Published statistics |
| Economic policy uncertainty index | index | monthly | Newspaper text analysis | ESTIMATED |
| Accuracy of resolved geopolitical forecasts | Brier score | per tournament | Forecasting tournament records | REPORTED |
| Democracy and rule-of-law indices | index | annual | Expert-coded surveys | ESTIMATED |
Horizon scanning board.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Horizon scanning board
Geopolitical futures · Horizon 2040 · Round 4
Signals
| Insurers exit high-risk postcodes | Finance | Medium | High | Protection retreat |
| Cheap sensors in informal settlements | Technology | High | Medium | Citizen data |
| Heat limits outdoor work hours | Labour | Medium | High | Heat economy |
| Synthetic media in elections | Information | Low | High | Trust erosion |
Driver ranking
impact vs uncertainty
Scenario axes
- Axis 1
- cooperation · fragmentation
- Axis 2
- slow · fast technological change
- Scenarios
- four narratives, not forecasts
- Use
- wind tunnel policies against each
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| Uppsala Conflict Data Program | Georeferenced organised violence events and conflict-year data | CC BY 4.0 |
| ACLED | Political violence and protest events with actors and locations | ACLED terms of use, registration and attribution |
| SIPRI Military Expenditure and Arms Transfers databases | Military spending by country and international transfers of major arms | Free with attribution, SIPRI terms |
| Global Trade Alert | State interventions affecting trade, investment and migration | Free with attribution |
| Geopolitical Risk Index (Caldara and Iacoviello) | Monthly text-based measure of adverse geopolitical events and threats | Free with citation |
| V-Dem dataset | Expert-coded indicators of democracy and governance across countries | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
| Good Judgment Project tournament data | Records of forecasts and resolutions from the IARPA geopolitical forecasting tournament | Open research data, citation required |
Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information.
Three families of instruments side by side against the baseline, each with its own lag and adoption speed, under the coverage and compliance you set; effect sizes are teaching values to replace with evidence. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast. The map on this page shows The Arctic; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Baseline trend of the outcome
- 2.0% a year
- Coverage of the instrument
- 70%
- Compliance
- 75%
- Effect size, against the teaching value
- 100%
- Years ahead
- 20 years
Readouts
- Largest reduction at the horizon
- Regulation
- Its reduction against the baseline
- 21%
Numbers, methods and sources
| Year | Baseline | Regulation | Economic incentive | Information and capacity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100.0 | 99.5 | 98.8 | 99.1 |
| 1 | 102.0 | 101.2 | 100.1 | 99.8 |
| 2 | 104.0 | 102.5 | 101.1 | 99.9 |
| 3 | 106.1 | 103.5 | 101.6 | 100.0 |
| 4 | 108.2 | 103.7 | 101.8 | 100.7 |
| 5 | 110.4 | 103.2 | 101.7 | 102.1 |
| 6 | 112.6 | 102.0 | 101.6 | 103.9 |
| 7 | 114.9 | 100.4 | 101.6 | 105.9 |
| 8 | 117.2 | 99.2 | 102.1 | 108.0 |
| 9 | 119.5 | 98.6 | 102.9 | 110.1 |
| 10 | 121.9 | 98.9 | 104.2 | 112.3 |
| 11 | 124.3 | 99.7 | 105.7 | 114.5 |
| 12 | 126.8 | 101.1 | 107.4 | 116.8 |
| 13 | 129.4 | 102.7 | 109.4 | 119.2 |
| 14 | 131.9 | 104.5 | 111.4 | 121.6 |
| 15 | 134.6 | 106.5 | 113.5 | 124.0 |
| 16 | 137.3 | 108.5 | 115.7 | 126.5 |
| 17 | 140.0 | 110.7 | 118.0 | 129.0 |
| 18 | 142.8 | 112.9 | 120.4 | 131.6 |
| 19 | 145.7 | 115.1 | 122.8 | 134.2 |
| 20 | 148.6 | 117.4 | 125.2 | 136.9 |
Methods
- Tools of government Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan
- Carrots, sticks and sermons Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction
- Diffusion of innovations Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Borders Natural Earth
- Cities Natural Earth
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Foresight Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Foresight Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Systemic Risks in Standards
- Published in Foresight Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Risk Science and Methods in Academy
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Foresight Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Ministries of foreign affairs and defence | Which alliances, capabilities and contingency plans hold across alternative security environments | Scenario sets, signposts and scored forecasts with their track records stated |
| Central banks and finance ministries | How fragmentation scenarios bear on financial stability, reserves and fiscal planning | Shock transmission channels, scenario narratives and the macro-financial variables each moves |
| Trade and economic security ministries | Which dependencies to diversify or secure, and at what cost | Dependence maps, restriction trends and scenarios of coercion and disruption |
| National security councils | Which strategic shocks warrant standing contingency planning | Shock scenarios with plausibility reasoning and the institutional responses they would require |
Outputs this topic produces
- Geopolitical scenario sets with the drivers that separate them
- Signal reviews on strategic shocks and their transmission channels
- Reviews of forecasting track records by question type and horizon
- Dependence maps for trade, energy and supply chains under stress
From mandate to evaluation, by pillar.
The steps an instrument takes from mandate to evaluation, each with the pillar that runs it, and the decisions that stay with the authority. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Arctic; the model itself is not tied to a place.
- Mandate and problem framing Competent authority (outside the programme)
A competent authority frames the problem and the mandate under its own rules. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Evidence and system model Foundry
The system is modelled with its feedbacks, data and stated limits. OECD (2014), principle 2 - Options appraised with scenarios Foundry
Instruments are compared under scenarios, with uncertainty shown. Hood (1983) - Exercise with stakeholders Universe
The options are tested in an exercise with those who would implement and bear them. OECD (2014), principle 3 - Standard or guidance drafted Nexus Standards
What works is codified as a standard or guidance, open to comment. Nexus Standards process - Decision by the authority Competent authority (outside the programme)
The authority decides, outside the programme, with the evidence on record. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Capacity and training Risk Academy
Those who implement are trained on the decided instrument and its data. Sendai Framework (2015), priority 2 - Monitoring and public report Reports
Indicators are published with sources, limits and corrections. OECD (2014), principle 5 - Evaluation and revision Nexus Standards
Results return to the standard and the model: the cycle closes. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)
Methods
- Policy cycle Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press
- Governance of critical risks OECD (2014), Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks
- Layered drawing of directed graphs Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Foresight Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Foresight Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Systemic Risks in Standards
- Published in Foresight Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Risk Science and Methods in Academy
What practitioners ask.
- How could the balance of economic and political power shift over the coming decades?
- Which strategic shocks would most disrupt trade, finance and cooperation?
- How resilient are international institutions to fragmentation?
- How do resource competition, technology and climate change interact with geopolitics?
- How should institutions prepare for futures they consider undesirable?
Exercise a cascade in geopolitical futures with the people who decide.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Future generations and long-term risk: the hazards it names, the systems and communities that carry the loss, the controls and institutions that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating event and step through the cascade to see where mandates meet and which decisions fall to whom. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise for dialogue, not a forecast, an assessment or a position. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Nuclear war
- Dam failure
- Financial contagion
- Cryptographically relevant quantum computer
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Nuclear detonation (set off downstream)
- Health-system overload (set off downstream)
- Data breach (set off downstream)
- Mass account takeover (set off downstream)
- Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
- Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)
- Currency crisis (set off downstream)
- Nuclear winter (set off downstream)
- High-altitude electromagnetic pulse (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-13Standards development process (open proposals, review, versioning, adoption)NRS-U12Universe platform profile: Foresight NexusNRS-H26Hazard family: Land and wetland degradation (NHS-1 eco.land)NRS-H92Hazard family: Ageing and degraded infrastructure (NHS-1 infra.ageing)NRS-P4Foresight, horizon scanning and strategyNRS-H11Hazard family: Coastal and sea-level hazards (NHS-1 water.coastal)NRS-H31Hazard family: Persistent and bioaccumulative substances (NHS-1 poll.persistent)
Observation
- Our World in Data datasets (listed for reference)
- CMIP6 climate projections (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
- Number of countries with mechanisms in place to enhance policy coherence of sustainable development
Example geography
- Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
Drivers and dynamics.
Geopolitical change combines slow structural shifts, such as demographic and economic weight, with sudden shocks, such as conflicts, sanctions, coups and financial crises. Interdependence through trade, finance, energy and technology has increased the ways shocks travel, while also creating incentives for cooperation. Strategic competition over technology, resources and supply chains has led many states to reconsider dependence on others.
Foresight in this field is sensitive. Scenarios about conflict or political change can be misread as predictions or positions. Good practice frames scenarios clearly, includes diverse perspectives from different regions, and focuses on implications for preparedness rather than on predicting events. Chatham House-style confidentiality rules can help participants speak openly, while published records state only what participants agree to release.
Why now: trade, security and technology rivalries have made geopolitical shocks a planning variable for public and private institutions. Foresight Nexus builds plausible scenarios without taking political positions, and uses them to test how arrangements hold under stress.
How geopolitical futures is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.
The instruments, mandates, actors and accountability arrangements a policymaker, diplomat or development agency works with, citing the agreements that set them. Structures follow the frameworks named. Any state or progress drawn is illustrative, not a record.
Policy instrument matrix
The kinds of instrument available on geopolitical futures, by level of government and cooperation.
| Instrument type | Local | National | Regional | Global |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory | Zoning, building codes | Laws, standards, licensing | Harmonised rules | Conventions and treaties |
| Economic | Local levies, grants | Budget lines, taxes, insurance schemes | Risk pools, regional funds | Financing mechanisms |
| Information | Local warnings | Disclosure, early warning, statistics | Data sharing arrangements | Global monitoring and reporting |
| Institutional | Local committees | Lead agencies, coordination councils | Regional bodies and secretariats | Multilateral mandates |
| Cooperative | Community agreements | Partnership compacts | Memoranda and joint programmes | Agreements and joint commitments |
How it is approached.
- 01
Structural analysis
Long-term trends in demography, economic weight, resources and technology.
- 02
Scenario development
Contrasting futures for international order and cooperation, using scenario design and stress testing.
- 03
Shock analysis
Exploring how specific shocks could propagate through trade, finance and security, using complex systems and agent-based modelling.
- 04
Limits
Political events depend on decisions by individuals and groups that are inherently hard to anticipate, and analysts’ own perspectives shape what futures they consider plausible.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Scenario design and stress testingExploratory scenario development · Policy wind-tunnellingApplied here
- 02Forecasting and time-series analysisAggregated judgemental forecasting · Probabilistic population projectionsApplied here
- 03Decision analysis under uncertaintyRobust decision making · Dynamic adaptive policy pathways · Structured expert elicitationApplied here
- 04Complex systems and agent-based modellingSystems mapping of drivers · Agent-based exploration of social changeApplied here
Questions and answers.
Are geopolitical forecasts useful if they are often wrong?
What did forecasting tournaments test?
Does Foresight Nexus take positions on conflicts?
Does Foresight Nexus predict conflicts?
Why include diverse regional perspectives?
Does GRF take positions on international disputes?
Who reviews coverage of this topic?
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