GRF · Foresight Nexus
کار در این حوزه چگونه پیش می‌رود
How Foresight Nexus works through the six pillars of one annual programme, led by the Nexus Consortium: built in Foundry, tested in جهان, codified in Nexus Standards, published in گزارش‌ها and taught on Risk Academy, with the steps of the work cycle as lanes and the owner of each step.
01توالی
ترتیبی که رویدادها رخ می‌دهند.
02شش رکن
این موضوع در شش رکن چگونه کار می‌کند.
Foresight Nexus works through six pillars of one annual programme, led by the Nexus Consortium, with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), the Global Risks Forum (GRF) and the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) each contributing in its role: explore, experiment and prototype in آزمایشگاه‌ها، ساخت، شبیه‌سازی و آماده‌سازی در Foundry، گردهم‌آوری و آزمون در Universe، تدوین، اصلاح و کاربست در Nexus Standards، انتشار در هر قالب در Reports، آموزش آزاد در Risk Academy.
رکن‌ها را انتخاب کنید · نشانگر را روی خطوط ببرید18 / 18 تحویل
handoff in playrecorded handoffno direct handoff
سال برنامههمهٔ مرحلهها
مسیر
کل برنامه
Every pillar hands its work to another; together they close the year’s feedback loops.
L · F · U · S · R · A
- ارکان
- 6 از 6
- تحویل‌ها
- 18 از 18
- حلقه‌ها
- 17 بسته
تحویل‌های در جریان
- F01Universe → Foundry · مأموریت پذیرفته‌شده با پروندهٔ تصمیم به پروژهٔ چرخه تبدیل می‌شودتدارک آمادگی
- F02Foundry → Universe · Core Build Report و شواهد تصمیم برای ادامه یا توقفساخت کنترل‌شده
- F03Foundry → Reports · مشاهدات مهر و موم‌شده و سری‌های نشانگر پشت یک نمایهاختتام
- F04Universe → Reports · یافته‌های پس از اقدام و سناریو برای فصل‌های 10 و 13مرور پس از اقدام
و 14 مورد دیگر
- آزمایشگاه‌هاجایی که پرسش‌ها به آزمایش و نمونهٔ اولیه تبدیل می‌شوند: روش‌ها، داده‌ها و ابزارهای نو پیش از آنکه Foundry آن‌ها را بسازد، آشکارا و با ثبت محدودیت‌هایشان، در چارچوب Nexus Consortium آزموده می‌شوند.آزمایشگاه‌ها
- Foundryجایی که شواهد پشت یک مأموریت یا تعهد ساخته می‌شود، با مالک و محدودیت‌های ثبت‌شده‌اش.Foresight Nexus در FoundryFoundry
- جهانجایی که مأموریت‌ها به مأموریت‌های اجرایی بدل می‌شوند: GRF هر دروازه را ثبت می‌کند، طرف‌ها را گرد هم می‌آورد و اجرا را پاسخگو نگه می‌دارد.Foresight Nexus در Universeuniverse.nexus
- Nexus Standardsجایی که قواعد مشترک آشکارا توافق می‌شوند؛ هر حوزهٔ قضایی دربارهٔ پذیرش تصمیم می‌گیرد و هیچ نهاد جهانی حق وتو ندارد.ریسک‌های سامانه‌ای در استانداردهاnexustandards.com
- گزارش‌هاWhere governance analysis and the year’s results are published, so commitments can be followed and checked.Foresight Nexus در Reportsگزارش‌ها
- Risk Academyجایی که سیاست‌گذاران، دیپلمات‌ها و کارکنان نهادها نقش‌های برنامه و تصمیم‌گیری مستند را در Risk Academy می‌آموزند.دانشکدهٔ علم و روش‌های ریسک در Academyrisksacademy.com
آنچه هر نهاد برای هر رکن می‌آورد
| رکن | GCRI | GRF | GRA |
|---|---|---|---|
| آزمایشگاه‌ها | آزمایش‌ها را اجرا می‌کند: تیم‌های علم و فناوری‌اش نمونه‌های اولیه را طراحی می‌کنند، روش را ثبت می‌کنند و آنچه شکست خورد را هم مانند آنچه کارآمد بود منتشر می‌کنند. | پرسش‌هایی را می‌آورد که سیاست‌گذاری و حکمرانی باید پاسخ دهد و آزمایشی را در یک دروازهٔ ثبت‌شده به برنامه می‌پذیرد. | پرسش‌های مالی را برای آزمون می‌آورد تا نمونهٔ اولیه بر پایهٔ شواهدی آزموده شود که نهادهای مالی بتوانند بخوانند. |
| Foundry | سکوهای علمی و فنی آن روش‌ها، داده‌ها و شواهدی را فراهم می‌کنند که Foundry بر آن‌ها بنا می‌شود. | مأموریت‌ها را می‌پذیرد و ساخت را برای مانور در یک دروازهٔ ثبت‌شده می‌پذیرد، تا کار Foundry به‌صورت مستند وارد برنامه شود. | پرسش‌های آمادگی مالی را می‌آورد تا ساخت‌ها شواهدی تولید کنند که نهادهای مالی بتوانند بخوانند. |
| جهان | دفتر فنی آن آمادگی علمی و دادهٔ هر مأموریت را فراهم می‌کند. | برنامه را اداره و متولی می‌کند: مأموریت، دروازه‌های G0 تا G7، گردهم‌آوری و هفتهٔ اقدام. | گفت‌وگوهای آمادگی مالی را دربارهٔ آنچه هر مأموریت برای مالی و بیمه معنا دارد اجرا می‌کند. |
| استانداردها | GCRI Canada ناشر رسمی و دبیرخانه است؛ GCRI متولی شواهد، روش‌ها، داده‌ها و پژوهش باز پشت استانداردهاست. | مشارکت را گرد هم می‌آورد و سابقهٔ عمومی شناسایی و جایگاه را نگه می‌دارد. | استانداردها را برای مالی و بیمه خوانا می‌کند. |
| گزارش‌ها | میزبان سایت مرجع Reports است و شواهد دربارهٔ کشورها، بخش‌ها و روش‌ها را منتشر می‌کند. | Publishes governance analysis and authorises publication of the year’s results at gate G6. | تحلیل بخشی و مجموعه‌گزارش آمادگی مالی و بیمه را منتشر می‌کند. |
| آکادمی | دوره‌هایی دربارهٔ روش‌ها، داده‌ها و سامانه‌هایFoundry تألیف می‌کند که در Risk Academy میزبانی می‌شوند. | دوره‌هایی دربارهٔ حکمرانی، سیاست‌گذاری و نقش‌های برنامه تألیف می‌کند که در Risk Academy میزبانی می‌شوند. | دوره‌هایی دربارهٔ مالی، بیمه و آمادگی تألیف می‌کند که در Risk Academy میزبانی می‌شوند. |
ارکان در سال برنامه
| رکن | Q1 · وضعیت و دستور کار | Q2 · شواهد و ساخت | Q3 · آزمون تنش و آمادگی | Q4 · ترکیب سالانه و تمدید |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| آزمایشگاه‌ها | Opens the year’s experiments on the questions the mandate names | نمونه‌های اولیه را در چرخه‌های کوتاه اجرا می‌کند؛ نمونه‌های بازتولیدپذیر را به Foundry می‌سپارد | ایده‌ها را در کنار هفتهٔ اقدام می‌آزماید؛ آنچه شکست خورد و چرایی آن را ثبت می‌کند | Writes up every experiment; proposes next year’s questions |
| Foundry | پروژه‌های چرخه را باز می‌کند؛ خط پایهٔ سبد ملی | منابع را احراز صلاحیت می‌کند؛ ساخت کنترل‌شدهٔ یک‌ماهه | شبیه‌سازی‌ها را در هفتهٔ اقدام اجرا می‌کند؛ ظرفیت موقت آزاد می‌کند | بسته‌های داده را تأمین می‌کند؛ شکاف‌های توان را ثبت می‌کند |
| جهان | مأموریت سالانه (G0) | مأموریت‌ها پذیرفته (G1)، احراز صلاحیت (G2)، ساخت پذیرفته (G3) | هفتهٔ اقدام (G4)، پایان آماده‌باش، شواهد مهر و موم‌شده (G5) | انتشار مجاز شد (G6)، تمدید (G7) |
| استانداردها | مأموریت‌ها را به استانداردها مسیردهی می‌کند | نمایه‌ها را می‌سازد؛ ساخت را اعتبارسنجی می‌کند | انطباق را پایش می‌کند؛ یافته‌ها به پیشنهاد تبدیل می‌شوند | بازبینی شورا؛ تغییرات پذیرفته‌شده منتشر می‌شوند |
| گزارش‌ها | ویراست وضعیت و دستور کار | ویراست شواهد و ساخت | آزمون تنش و آمادگی | Annual Synthesis، پرچم‌دار |
| آکادمی | مسیرها باز است؛ هم‌گروه‌ها ثبت‌نام می‌کنند | دوره‌های احراز صلاحیت؛ یادگیری حین ساخت | ارزیابی‌های مانور؛ سوابق تکمیل | بازنگری دوره‌ها؛ هم‌گروه‌های بعدی باز می‌شوند |
03The cycle in foresight
Where futures enter the cycle.
| گام | Foresight input |
|---|---|
| پرسش | Emerging issues from scanning |
| شواهد | Scenario set |
| آزمودن | Strategy run against each scenario |
| تمدید | Signals that a scenario is unfolding |
04فرایند
فرایند چگونه پیش می‌رود.
Process explorer · Process
How work moves in this field: Catastrophe model pipeline
10 steps·5 مرحله
فرایند
How work moves in this field: Catastrophe model pipeline
Catastrophe models usually have hazard, vulnerability, exposure and financial modules, and produce loss tables, average annual loss, exceedance curves, PML and TVaR.
01 Hazard
- 01فهرست رویدادهاDataset · Model developerThe hazard module holds a large catalogue of simulated events that represents a wide range of plausible scenarios.
- 03Hazard moduleModel · Model developerFor each event the hazard module gives the local hazard intensity that the vulnerability module reads.
02 Exposure and damage
- 02مواجههDataset · Scenario authorThe exposure module houses the portfolio data, such as location-specific information.
- 04Vulnerability moduleModel · Model developerThe vulnerability module quantifies the expected damage to the exposures from an event.
03 Financial
- 05Financial moduleModel · Scenario authorThe financial module calculates losses from all event scenarios. Ground-up, gross and net losses differ as shown below.
- 06Event loss tableDataset · Scenario authorAn event loss table lists each event with its annual occurrence probability and its loss for the portfolio.
- 07Year loss tableDataset · Scenario authorSome models also sample simulated years from event losses. This outline does not describe their format.
04 Metrics
- 08احتمال فراگذشت curvesModel · Scenario authorThe occurrence curve gives the chance that the largest loss in a year exceeds an amount. The aggregate curve does so for the sum of losses.
- 09AAL, PML and TVaRModel · Scenario authorAverage annual loss sums event probability times loss. PML is one point on the occurrence curve.
05 Use of results
- 10Use of resultsDecision · Scenario authorThe tail metrics are used when considering a portfolio’s exposure and the level of catastrophe reinsurance an insurer requires.
Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.
05چرخه
هشت گام، هر یک در رکن خود.
- پرسش جهان اولویت ملی، منطقه‌ای یا نهادی. پرسش در Foresight Nexus
- شواهد Foundry بنیان STEM سکو. شواهد در Foresight Nexus
- ساخت Foundry Foundry. ساخت در Foresight Nexus
- سازماندهی جهان بوم‌سامانهٔ Nexus. سازماندهی در Foresight Nexus
- آزمودن جهان Universe (سایت مستقل). آزمودن در Foresight Nexus
- انتشار گزارش‌ها Reports. انتشار در Foresight Nexus
- تصمیم‌گیری مرجع صلاحیت‌دار مراجع و نهادهای صلاحیت‌دار، از طریق NXS-RLS. تصمیم‌گیری در Foresight Nexus
- تمدید جهان اصلاحات و دستور کار سالانهٔ بعد. تمدید در Foresight Nexus
هر گام از چرخه در رکنی که در آن اجرا می‌شود؛ تصمیم با مرجع صلاحیت‌دار می‌ماند و بیرون از برنامه است.
- آزمایشگاه‌ها
- Foundry
- جهان
- Nexus Standards
- گزارش‌ها
- Risk Academy
- مرجع صلاحیت‌دار (بیرون از برنامه)
06Owners
Who is responsible at each step.
| گام | مالک |
|---|---|
| پرسش | اولویت ملی، منطقه‌ای یا نهادی |
| شواهد | بنیان STEM سکو |
| ساخت | Foundry |
| سازماندهی | بوم‌سامانهٔ Nexus: community, chapters, councils, national cells |
| آزمودن | Universe (سایت مستقل) |
| انتشار | گزارش‌ها |
| تصمیم‌گیری | مراجع و نهادهای صلاحیت‌دار، از طریق NXS-RLS |
| تمدید | اصلاحات و دستور کار سالانهٔ بعد |
07Nexus Standards
Nexus Standards for Foresight Nexus.
Where all standards are developed, corrected and applied, in the open, with adoption decided by each jurisdiction. For this field: ریسک‌های سامانه‌ای در استانداردها.
| مساحت | Nexus Standards |
|---|---|
| رهبری | A Global Standards Council stewards the standards once constituted, with GCRI Canada as secretariat; national councils lead adoption in their own jurisdictions. |
| راهبرد | Each candidate mission is routed to the standards and profiles that apply, and gaps found in the year become change proposals. |
| دورهٔ تکرار | Routing in Q1, profile composition and validation in Q2, monitoring in Q3, change proposals through review in Q4, and adopted changes published at renewal. |
| مالکیت | Owns UNI identifiers, standards, clauses and profiles, change proposals, national adoption records and conformance evidence. |
| فرایند | An open track runs from open to community draft, proposed, candidate and adopted; conformance is evidence read under each institution’s own rules. |
| توسعه | Develops standards in the open, with cycle findings entering as change proposals. |
| Simulations | Monitors conformance during exercises and logs deviations against the composed profiles. |
| Reporting | Assigns UNIs to publications and records sealed evidence against the standards it was tested on. |
| حکمرانی | Adoption is final for each jurisdiction, and no global body holds a veto over national adoption. |
| داده و شواهد | Every artefact carries a UNI, so evidence can be cited, checked and corrected. |
| Finance and resourcing | Standards documents are published under CC BY 4.0 and their tooling under Apache-2.0. |
| Risk and assurance | A validator report is evidence for review, not a conformance claim; deviations become change proposals. |
| مشارکت | Anyone can comment and contribute in the open, and national councils adopt or adapt. |
| Communication | Each standard is published with its status and UNI, and a proposed standard is never presented as adopted. |
What each institution brings
| رکن | GCRI | GRF | GRA |
|---|---|---|---|
| استانداردها | GCRI Canada ناشر رسمی و دبیرخانه است؛ GCRI متولی شواهد، روش‌ها، داده‌ها و پژوهش باز پشت استانداردهاست. | مشارکت را گرد هم می‌آورد و سابقهٔ عمومی شناسایی و جایگاه را نگه می‌دارد. | استانداردها را برای مالی و بیمه خوانا می‌کند. |
Handoffs in and out
- F06: Method and correction findings as change proposals (from Reports)
- F07: Docket items that need a standard or a profile (from Universe)
- F13: Validation and monitoring evidence for conformance review (from Foundry)
- F08: Composed mission profiles and national adoption records (to Foundry)
- F09: Each adopted standard or profile becomes a course module (to Risk Academy)
08Risk Academy
Risk Academy for Foresight Nexus.
Where everything is taught in the open, in real locations and for impact, by learning on real cycle work. For this field: دانشکدهٔ علم و روش‌های ریسک در Academy.
| مساحت | Risk Academy |
|---|---|
| رهبری | Course leads and assessors lead learning on real cycle tasks, and the leadership track teaches decision-making under uncertainty, with a mandate and on the record. |
| راهبرد | The year’s pathways are planned from the missions and from the gaps the previous cycle found. |
| دورهٔ تکرار | Cohorts open at planning, qualification courses run before the build, assessments close after Action Week, and next-cycle cohorts open at renewal. |
| مالکیت | Owns learning pathways and courses, cohorts and enrolments, assessment evidence and completion records. |
| فرایند | Enrol, learn on a real cycle task, be assessed against stated objectives, and leave with a completion record. |
| توسعه | Develops a course for every system, standard and programme role, revised when cycle findings change what should be taught. |
| Simulations | Uses practice scenarios and exercise roles as the learning task, assessed against stated objectives. |
| Reporting | Teaches evidence classes, review and correction, and learners contribute reviewed sections to an edition. |
| حکمرانی | Risk Academy hosts the courses and the institutions author them; a completion record is not a licence to practise. |
| داده و شواهد | Assessment evidence comes from real cycle work and is kept with the task it assessed. |
| Finance and resourcing | Courses on Risk Academy are free, and its finance and economics faculty teaches how finance and insurance read risk evidence. |
| Risk and assurance | Assessed work names its assessor, and performance in a programme role is assessed by an independent evaluator. |
| مشارکت | Learners take part in reviewing and translating the standards and qualify for roles in the next cycle. |
| Communication | Every course states what it teaches, what it does not confer and where its subject is applied in the Consortium. |
What each institution brings
| رکن | GCRI | GRF | GRA |
|---|---|---|---|
| آکادمی | دوره‌هایی دربارهٔ روش‌ها، داده‌ها و سامانه‌هایFoundry تألیف می‌کند که در Risk Academy میزبانی می‌شوند. | دوره‌هایی دربارهٔ حکمرانی، سیاست‌گذاری و نقش‌های برنامه تألیف می‌کند که در Risk Academy میزبانی می‌شوند. | دوره‌هایی دربارهٔ مالی، بیمه و آمادگی تألیف می‌کند که در Risk Academy میزبانی می‌شوند. |
Handoffs in and out
- F09: Each adopted standard or profile becomes a course module (from Nexus Standards)
- F10: Assessed cycle tasks become completion evidence (from Universe)
- F14: Each system’s rooms become a learning-by-doing course (from Foundry)
- F11: Qualified participants for the next cycle’s roles (to Universe)
09Every area
The six pillars in every area of the work.
Leadership, strategy, cadence, ownership, process, development, simulations and reporting, with governance, evidence, resourcing, assurance, participation and communication: one sentence per pillar and area.
| مساحت | آزمایشگاه‌ها | Foundry | جهان | استانداردها | گزارش‌ها | آکادمی |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| رهبریWho leads, and on what record. | Each experiment has a named lead and a written question; leading an experiment confers no authority over the decision it informs. | Each build is led by an authorised project with an accountable owner; leadership is technical and never extends to the decision the build informs. | GRF steers the annual programme and records each gate decision from G0 to G7, with dissent kept on the record. | A Global Standards Council stewards the standards once constituted, with GCRI Canada as secretariat; national councils lead adoption in their own jurisdictions. | Series editors lead each edition under the series method; no funder, sponsor or member can buy or block a finding. | Course leads and assessors lead learning on real cycle tasks, and the leadership track teaches decision-making under uncertainty, with a mandate and on the record. |
| راهبردHow the year’s priorities are set. | Experiments are chosen for the questions the annual programme cannot answer yet, and retired when they stop teaching anything new. | The build plan follows the National Portfolio and the missions admitted for the year. | National and regional priorities become the year’s missions; the annual mandate at gate G0 sets which missions the programme takes on. | Each candidate mission is routed to the standards and profiles that apply, and gaps found in the year become change proposals. | Each country programme agrees the scope of its profile before Q1, and nothing outside that scope is published. | The year’s pathways are planned from the missions and from the gaps the previous cycle found. |
| دورهٔ تکرارWhen the work happens in the year. | Experiments run in short cycles inside the annual programme, each closing with a recorded result before the next begins. | Works all year; the controlled build runs for one month in Q2, and measured capacity results are reviewed in Q4. | One year to prepare, one month to build, one week to act and test in Q3, a planned stand-down, then review and renewal in Q4. | Routing in Q1, profile composition and validation in Q2, monitoring in Q3, change proposals through review in Q4, and adopted changes published at renewal. | Quarterly: Q1 State and Agenda, Q2 Evidence and Build, Q3 آزمون تنش and Readiness, and the Q4 Annual Synthesis as the flagship; an edition is published after review, not to a calendar. | Cohorts open at planning, qualification courses run before the build, assessments close after Action Week, and next-cycle cohorts open at renewal. |
| مالکیتWhich records each pillar owns. | Every prototype carries its owner, its licence and its limits, so it can be handed to the Foundry or retired on the record. | Owns projects and builds, observations and canonical data, simulation and benchmark runs, the National Portfolio record and evidence seals. | Owns the cycle mandate, mission admission decisions, gate decisions, after-action records and the renewal decision. | Owns UNI identifiers, standards, clauses and profiles, change proposals, national adoption records and conformance evidence. | Owns editions and their evidence cutoff, country and regional profiles, technology stream briefs and the correction history. | Owns learning pathways and courses, cohorts and enrolments, assessment evidence and completion records. |
| فرایندHow work moves, step by step. | Question, design, run, record, review: a prototype moves to the Foundry only when its result is reproducible. | Work moves through governed rooms on twenty سامانه‌های, and every run leaves a record with its limits. | Twelve phases, from planning to renewal, each closed by a gate or a record. | An open track runs from open to community draft, proposed, candidate and adopted; conformance is evidence read under each institution’s own rules. | Contribution, editorial review, publication with version history, then challenge and correction as a new version. | Enrol, learn on a real cycle task, be assessed against stated objectives, and leave with a completion record. |
| توسعهWhat is developed, and how capacity grows. | New methods, data and tools are developed in the open, with failures kept on the record alongside successes. | Develops the cycle’s software, data and environments, and develops each country’s National Portfolio. | Develops national demand into admitted, qualified missions, and carries the lessons into the next mandate. | Develops standards in the open, with cycle findings entering as change proposals. | Develops country profiles each quarter, regional profiles twice a year and one exponential technology stream at a time. | Develops a course for every system, standard and programme role, revised when cycle findings change what should be taught. |
| SimulationsHow scenarios and exercises are run and read. | Exploratory simulations test an idea before it is built; they are labelled as experiments, never as findings. | Runs scenarios, experiments and benchmarks with published method and conditions; a simulated capability is not a validated result. | Tests work under exercise control in Action Week with independent evaluators; nothing simulated is reported as observed impact. | Monitors conformance during exercises and logs deviations against the composed profiles. | Publishes scenario findings labelled as modelled, with their uncertainty. | Uses practice scenarios and exercise roles as the learning task, assessed against stated objectives. |
| ReportingHow results reach the public record. | Each experiment is written up with its method, data and limits, and the results feed Reports as working papers. | Supplies the permitted data bundles and sealed observations behind every edition. | Authorises publication of the year’s results at gate G6 and supplies after-action and scenario findings. | Assigns UNIs to publications and records sealed evidence against the standards it was tested on. | Publishes every output in every format across its five sites, each edition with sources, limits and corrections. | Teaches evidence classes, review and correction, and learners contribute reviewed sections to an edition. |
| حکمرانیWho decides, and what a decision is not. | آزمایشگاه‌ها tries the idea in the open first, with its limits on record, before it is built. | Shared infrastructure made available to the Consortium for public-good purposes; it holds no vote in the governance of the standards. | GRF governs the programme; a cycle gate is a programme decision, not a public-authority approval. | Adoption is final for each jurisdiction, and no global body holds a veto over national adoption. | Publication is not authority: an edition is never a government risk register or a sovereign rating, and countries are never ranked. | Risk Academy hosts the courses and the institutions author them; a completion record is not a licence to practise. |
| داده و شواهدWhere the evidence comes from and how it is kept. | Labs tries the idea in the open first, with its limits on record, before it is built. | Canonical observations and provenance are held in The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX), and every value carries its source and licence. | Run, decision and observation records from Action Week are sealed at closeout, gate G5. | Every artefact carries a UNI, so evidence can be cited, checked and corrected. | Observed, modelled and estimated evidence stay apart, and each edition states its evidence cutoff. | Assessment evidence comes from real cycle work and is kept with the task it assessed. |
| Finance and resourcingHow work is resourced and made readable to finance. | Labs tries the idea in the open first, with its limits on record, before it is built. | Compute and data allocations open per project when their terms and review capacity exist; temporary capacity is released at stand-down. | Data, people and resource offers are qualified before the build at gate G2; an offer is not an allocation. | Standards documents are published under CC BY 4.0 and their tooling under Apache-2.0. | The Finance and Insurance Readiness and the Portfolio and Readiness series make the evidence readable to finance. | Courses on Risk Academy are free, and its finance and economics faculty teaches how finance and insurance read risk evidence. |
| Risk and assuranceHow errors are caught and limits are stated. | Labs tries the idea in the open first, with its limits on record, before it is built. | Builds are signed and tested for security and interoperability, and accepted for exercise only at gate G3. | Exercise controls and stop-work events keep Action Week controlled, reversible and independently evaluated. | A validator report is evidence for review, not a conformance claim; deviations become change proposals. | Each finding states its method, uncertainty and limits, and reproducible concerns go to the owner of the finding. | Assessed work names its assessor, and performance in a programme role is assessed by an independent evaluator. |
| مشارکتWho takes part, and how. | Labs tries the idea in the open first, with its limits on record, before it is built. | Stakeholders and service providers may establish their presence for non-profit and consortium objectives under the Terms. | Governments, agencies, researchers, finance, civil society and communities take part through missions, tracks and national contributions. | Anyone can comment and contribute in the open, and national councils adopt or adapt. | Researchers and practitioners contribute reviewed findings, and any reader can challenge a finding. | Learners take part in reviewing and translating the standards and qualify for roles in the next cycle. |
| CommunicationHow each pillar speaks in public. | Labs tries the idea in the open first, with its limits on record, before it is built. | Public pages describe each system’s purpose and design, and state what it does only as far as its record shows. | Mission themes are presented as proposals until admitted, and confirmed exercises are announced with their gate record. | Each standard is published with its status and UNI, and a proposed standard is never presented as adopted. | Every output is published in accessible formats with its version history. | Every course states what it teaches, what it does not confer and where its subject is applied in the Consortium. |
10Every scale
From a place to the planet.
| Scale | آزمایشگاه‌ها | Foundry | جهان | استانداردها | گزارش‌ها | آکادمی |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| محلیA place, a site, a system. | Experiments run on real places and سامانه‌های, with the location and boundary of every result recorded. | Observations and models keep their place: every value carries the location and boundary it was drawn on. | Exercises run on named places and systems, under exercise control. | A UNI identifies each artefact, dataset and site record, so a local finding can be cited and corrected. | Local evidence enters a profile only within the scope its country agreed. | Courses are taught on real locations, so learners work on the place they study. |
| ملیA country programme and its counterparts. | National teams propose experiments for their own questions and keep ownership of their data. | Each country’s National Portfolio is developed and tracked. | National demand forms the agenda, and national counterparts own the agenda, data and decisions. | National councils adopt or adapt standards, and adoption is final for each jurisdiction. | Country profiles are updated each quarter, within the scope each country agreed before Q1. | Cohorts are tied to the missions of each national programme. |
| منطقه‌ایCountries sharing systems and borders. | Regional experiments compare methods across countries before one is chosen for the Foundry. | Shared systems and cross-border dependencies are modelled across the countries of a region. | Regional programmes contribute missions that cross borders. | Profiles compose the standards that apply across a regional programme’s shared systems. | Regional profiles are published twice a year, in Q2 and Q4, and never override a country’s own findings. | Pathways are shared across the countries of a region where the same systems are at risk. |
| PlanetaryThe whole Earth system and every jurisdiction. | Planetary experiments test methods against global data, labelled as exploratory until reproduced. | Global data and Earth observation are held with provenance, so planetary pressures can be read alongside national ones. | The annual programme brings national and regional work together once a year. | A Global Standards Council stewards one open set of standards that any jurisdiction may adopt. | The Q4 Annual Synthesis reads country, regional and technology work together, without ranking countries. | Courses are open, so anyone anywhere can learn on the same material. |
11جفت‌شدگی
The pillars as one coupled system.
Each handoff between pillars is a record with an identifier; read together they close feedback loops, so a finding in one pillar returns as a better build, test, standard, edition or course in the next cycle.
| From \ to | آزمایشگاه‌ها | Foundry | جهان | استانداردها | گزارش‌ها | آکادمی |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| آزمایشگاه‌ها | · | |||||
| Foundry | · | F02 Core Build Report and go or no-go evidence | F13 Validation and monitoring evidence for conformance review | F03 Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile; F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 | F14 Each system’s rooms become a learning-by-doing course | |
| جهان | F01 Admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision case | · | F07 Docket items that need a standard or a profile | F04 After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 | F10 Assessed cycle tasks become completion evidence | |
| استانداردها | F08 Composed mission profiles and national adoption records | · | F09 Each adopted standard or profile becomes a course module | |||
| گزارش‌ها | F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate | F06 Method and correction findings as change proposals | · | |||
| آکادمی | F11 Qualified participants for the next cycle’s roles | · |
Feedback loops closed by the recorded handoffs
- Foundry F13 → Standards F08 → Foundry
- Foundry F02 → Universe F01 → Foundry
- جهان F10 → Academy F11 → Universe
- جهان F04 → Reports F12 → Universe
- Foundry F14 → Academy F11 → Universe F01 → Foundry
- Foundry F03/F05 → Reports F06 → Standards F08 → Foundry
روش‌ها
- Causal loop analysis. The feedback loops between pillars are the closed chains of recorded handoffs (F01 to F14), enumerated as elementary circuits of the handoff graph. System dynamics (Forrester; Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000)
- Design structure matrix. The pillar by pillar matrix shows which pillar hands what to which, so couplings and missing joins are visible at a glance. Steward (1981); Eppinger and Browning, Design Structure Matrix Methods and Applications (2012)
- Stocks and flows. Each pillar holds stocks (the records it owns) that change only through recorded flows (handoffs), so every change has an owner and a trace. System dynamics stock-and-flow notation (Sterman 2000)
- Cross-scale analysis. Each pillar is read at four scales, local to planetary, so a finding keeps its scale and is never silently aggregated or downscaled. Panarchy and cross-scale interactions (Gunderson and Holling, 2002)
- Swimlane process mapping. Every process graph carries the six pillars as lanes, so each step shows where it runs and who owns its record. Business process lanes (BPMN 2.0, OMG)
12منابع
Where this page’s references lead.
نهادها و اسنادی که این صفحه در برابر آن‌ها خوانده می‌شود. وضعیت و ویراست‌ها تغییر می‌کنند؛ هر پیوند به نهاد صادرکننده می‌رود.
13پرسش‌ها
پرسش و پاسخ.
Who takes the decision at the end?
مرجع یا نهاد صلاحیت‌دار، بر پایهٔ قواعد خود. چرخه شواهد و گزینه‌ها را فراهم می‌کند؛ تصمیم نمی‌گیرد.
Who leads the six pillars?
Nexus Consortium leads them as one annual programme; GCRI, GRF and GRA each contribute in their role, and national counterparts own their agenda, data and decisions.
Foresight Nexus
پرسش حکمرانی خود را نزد Forum بیاورید.
اطلاعات و پرسش‌ها از امروز باز است. هر پرسش شمارهٔ مرجعی می‌گیرد و گام بعد را نام می‌برد؛ درخواست‌ها، پرداخت‌ها، تخصیص توان رایانشی و ثبت‌نام‌ها تنها زمانی باز می‌شوند که تیم، شرایط و ظرفیت بررسی آن‌ها فراهم باشد.
حقوقی
اسناد حقوقی.
نمایش هر 18 سند حقوقی
نقشه‌ها، داده‌ها و شکل‌های این سایت برای زمینه و اطلاعات عمومی نشان داده می‌شوند. آن‌ها توصیه، پیش‌بینی یا هشدار نیستند؛ حدود اطلاعات در سلب مسئولیت‌ها و اطلاعیه‌های داده بیان شده است.