GRF · Policy Nexus
Climate and adaptation policy
Climate change shifts the hazards that public planning was designed for, while the policies that respond to it cut across energy, land, water, finance and nature. Climate and adaptation policy covers the laws, plans, targets and institutions through which governments reduce emissions and adapt public systems. This page sets out how climate policy risk arises and propagates, how adaptation governance is measured, and which institutions hold the decisions.
Climate and adaptation policy in seven parts.
- 01The questionClimate and adaptation policy: how the risk develops
- 02IndicatorsWhat is measured, and how well
- 03SourcesWhere the evidence comes from
- 04DecisionsWho decides, and what the evidence serves
- 05Core questionsWhat experts ask
- 06Mechanisms and driversPlanning under deep uncertainty
- 07Methods and dataHow the evidence is built, and where it stops
Climate and adaptation policy: how the risk develops.
Climate, nature and public planning. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Plans without delivery
Adaptation plans and climate targets are adopted nationally, but delivery depends on sector ministries, local governments and regulators whose mandates and budgets may not reflect them. The gap shows only when implementation is reviewed.
Maladaptation
A measure that reduces one risk can raise another or shift it to others: a sea wall that moves erosion along the coast, or irrigation that deepens groundwater depletion. Without cross-sector appraisal the side effects stay invisible.
Policy credibility and transition risk
Abrupt or reversed policy changes strand assets and raise the cost of capital. Stable, legislated frameworks reduce that risk; frequent reversals transmit it to investors, workers and the regions that depend on them.
Nature and climate coupled
Land use, ecosystems and climate interact: degraded wetlands and forests lose their buffering role, which raises flood and heat risk. Policies governed by separate ministries miss these links unless planning duties join them.
Climate signals in Africa.
Daytime surface heat, rain, marine heat and population density over Africa, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 4
Climate signals, for this page
Keyboard, with the map focused
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Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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Climate signals, framed on Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA AIRS · U.S. Geological SurveySources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA AIRS. We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (22 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
- Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National adaptation plan submitted | yes or no, with date of submission | event-based | UNFCCC NAP Central | Published statistics |
| Framework climate law in force | categorical, by scope and duties | periodic review | National gazettes, compiled in Climate Change Laws of the World | Published statistics |
| Adaptation spending tagged in the budget | share of total expenditure | annual | Climate budget tagging | Published statistics |
| Independent climate advisory body with statutory mandate | yes or no, with functions | periodic review | National legislation | Published statistics |
| Climate policy adoption and stringency | index score | annual | OECD Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework | ESTIMATED |
| Reporting under the Enhanced Transparency Framework | submission status | biennial | UNFCCC biennial transparency reports | Published statistics |
| Spatial plans that integrate climate risk | percent of plans reviewed | periodic | Planning authority records | REPORTED |
Policy tracker.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Policy tracker
Climate and adaptation policy · Member state A · Session 3
Policy cycle
Options appraisal, planning law
| A · guidance only | 32 | Low | Mixed | High |
| B · duty with standards | 61 | Medium | Positive | Medium |
| C · duty, standards, funding | 86 | High | Positive | Low |
Decision record
- Owner
- Policy owner
- Decision by
- Legislative committee
- Evidence
- synthesis SY-41
- GRF role
- convenes, does not decide
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| UNFCCC NDC Registry and NAP Central | Submitted nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans | Public, UN terms |
| Climate Change Laws of the World (Grantham Research Institute and Sabin Center) | Climate laws, policies and litigation by country, with summaries | Free with attribution, publisher terms |
| OECD Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework | Comparable indicators of climate policy adoption and stringency | Open, CC BY 4.0 |
| UNFCCC biennial transparency reports | National reporting on emissions, policies and adaptation | Public, UN terms |
| Reports of national climate change committees and councils | Statutory progress reviews of climate targets and adaptation | Public sector information, national terms |
| IPCC and IPBES assessment reports | Assessed evidence on climate, nature and response options | Free, publisher terms |
Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information.
Three families of instruments side by side against the baseline, each with its own lag and adoption speed, under the coverage and compliance you set; effect sizes are teaching values to replace with evidence. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast. The map on this page shows Africa; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Baseline trend of the outcome
- 2.0% a year
- Coverage of the instrument
- 70%
- Compliance
- 75%
- Effect size, against the teaching value
- 100%
- Years ahead
- 20 years
Readouts
- Largest reduction at the horizon
- Regulation
- Its reduction against the baseline
- 21%
Numbers, methods and sources
| Year | Baseline | Regulation | Economic incentive | Information and capacity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100.0 | 99.5 | 98.8 | 99.1 |
| 1 | 102.0 | 101.2 | 100.1 | 99.8 |
| 2 | 104.0 | 102.5 | 101.1 | 99.9 |
| 3 | 106.1 | 103.5 | 101.6 | 100.0 |
| 4 | 108.2 | 103.7 | 101.8 | 100.7 |
| 5 | 110.4 | 103.2 | 101.7 | 102.1 |
| 6 | 112.6 | 102.0 | 101.6 | 103.9 |
| 7 | 114.9 | 100.4 | 101.6 | 105.9 |
| 8 | 117.2 | 99.2 | 102.1 | 108.0 |
| 9 | 119.5 | 98.6 | 102.9 | 110.1 |
| 10 | 121.9 | 98.9 | 104.2 | 112.3 |
| 11 | 124.3 | 99.7 | 105.7 | 114.5 |
| 12 | 126.8 | 101.1 | 107.4 | 116.8 |
| 13 | 129.4 | 102.7 | 109.4 | 119.2 |
| 14 | 131.9 | 104.5 | 111.4 | 121.6 |
| 15 | 134.6 | 106.5 | 113.5 | 124.0 |
| 16 | 137.3 | 108.5 | 115.7 | 126.5 |
| 17 | 140.0 | 110.7 | 118.0 | 129.0 |
| 18 | 142.8 | 112.9 | 120.4 | 131.6 |
| 19 | 145.7 | 115.1 | 122.8 | 134.2 |
| 20 | 148.6 | 117.4 | 125.2 | 136.9 |
Methods
- Tools of government Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan
- Carrots, sticks and sermons Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction
- Diffusion of innovations Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page's map can draw:
- Borders Natural Earth
- Cities Natural Earth
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Policy Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Policy Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Foundations and Governance in Standards
- Published in Policy Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Governance, Policy and International Affairs in Academy
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Policy Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| National legislatures | Whether to adopt or amend a climate framework law, and what duties and oversight it sets | Comparative review of framework laws and of the functions given to independent advisory bodies |
| Ministries of environment and climate | How to structure and update the national adaptation plan and coordinate sector ministries | Plan elements compared across countries; implementation reviews with their labels |
| Ministries of finance and central banks | How to tag climate spending and account for physical and transition risk | Budget tagging methods and supervisory approaches compared |
| Constitutional and administrative courts | Whether government action meets statutory and constitutional climate duties | Compiled records of climate cases and the legal standards courts have applied |
Outputs this topic produces
- Policy primer on the institutional architecture of climate framework laws
- Comparative brief on how adaptation plans become sector mandates and budgets
- Review of adaptive pathways approaches used in public planning, with their decision points
- Dialogue records from exchanges between climate councils, finance ministries and local governments
From mandate to evaluation, by pillar.
The steps an instrument takes from mandate to evaluation, each with the pillar that runs it, and the decisions that stay with the authority. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows Africa; the model itself is not tied to a place.
- Mandate and problem framing Competent authority (outside the programme)
A competent authority frames the problem and the mandate under its own rules. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Evidence and system model Foundry
The system is modelled with its feedbacks, data and stated limits. OECD (2014), principle 2 - Options appraised with scenarios Foundry
Instruments are compared under scenarios, with uncertainty shown. Hood (1983) - Exercise with stakeholders Universe
The options are tested in an exercise with those who would implement and bear them. OECD (2014), principle 3 - Standard or guidance drafted Nexus Standards
What works is codified as a standard or guidance, open to comment. Nexus Standards process - Decision by the authority Competent authority (outside the programme)
The authority decides, outside the programme, with the evidence on record. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Capacity and training Risk Academy
Those who implement are trained on the decided instrument and its data. Sendai Framework (2015), priority 2 - Monitoring and public report Reports
Indicators are published with sources, limits and corrections. OECD (2014), principle 5 - Evaluation and revision Nexus Standards
Results return to the standard and the model: the cycle closes. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)
Methods
- Policy cycle Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press
- Governance of critical risks OECD (2014), Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks
- Layered drawing of directed graphs Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Policy Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Policy Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Foundations and Governance in Standards
- Published in Policy Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Governance, Policy and International Affairs in Academy
What experts ask.
Experts in climate and adaptation policy ask how planning can keep pace with a changing climate.
- How are climate projections and uncertainty translated into planning standards and investment decisions?
- How are adaptation responsibilities divided between levels of government and sectors?
- How do policies avoid maladaptation, where a response increases risk elsewhere or later?
- How is nature integrated into planning as infrastructure and as something to protect?
- How are the costs and benefits of adaptation distributed between groups and generations?
Exercise a cascade in climate and adaptation policy with the people who decide.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Climate adaptation and transition risk: the hazards it names, the systems and communities that carry the loss, the controls and institutions that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating event and step through the cascade to see where mandates meet and which decisions fall to whom. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise for dialogue, not a forecast, an assessment or a position. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Sea-level rise
- Heatwave
- Windstorm
- Flash flood
- Meteorological drought
- Groundwater depletion
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Large forest disturbance (set off downstream)
- Wildfire (set off downstream)
- Extreme fire weather (set off downstream)
- Heat-driven grid stress (set off downstream)
- Agricultural drought (set off downstream)
- Flash drought (set off downstream)
- Snow drought (set off downstream)
- Ground-level ozone episode (set off downstream)
- Debris flow (set off downstream)
- Hydrological drought (set off downstream)
- Peat and underground fire (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
- Climate adaptation and transition risk
- Climate risk standards Mechanism
- Financial and economic risk standards Cascade
- Energy risk standards Feedback
- Water risk standards Maladaptation risk
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-X1Climate change risk and adaptationNRS-T16AI agents and autonomous decision systems riskNRS-H65Hazard family: Planetary boundary transgressions (NHS-1 planet.boundary)NRS-I7Intelligence applications: grounded retrieval, reasoning and decision supportNRS-K20Domain pack profile: Climate adaptation (DOMAIN-020)NRS-K21Domain pack profile: Climate mitigation carbon (DOMAIN-021)
Observation
- CMIP6 climate projections (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- NGFS Scenario Explorer (listed for reference)
- ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
- Number of countries with nationally determined contributions, long-term strategies, national adaptation plans and adaptation communications
- Number of countries that adopt and implement national DRR strategies in line with the Sendai Framework
Example geography
- Pacific Island states: 150 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface air temperature, daytime (AIRS), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
Planning under deep uncertainty.
Adaptation requires decisions now about assets and land uses that will last for decades, under a climate whose future depends on emissions and on uncertain system responses. Planning standards based on past climate may no longer hold. Approaches that keep options open, set signposts for when to change course, and favour measures that perform reasonably across many futures are increasingly used to manage this uncertainty.
Adaptation also has distributional consequences. Defences protect some places and not others; managed retreat affects communities and property rights; restrictions on land use carry costs for those who own it. Policies that integrate nature, such as protecting floodplains and wetlands, can deliver both adaptation and biodiversity benefits but require coordination across environment, planning and infrastructure portfolios.
Why now: countries are updating national climate plans after the first Global Stocktake (2023) and working toward the adaptation targets of the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience. Policy Nexus compares how adaptation policy is assigned and financed, and records where duties go unfunded.
How climate and adaptation policy is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.
The instruments, mandates, actors and accountability arrangements a policymaker, diplomat or development agency works with, citing the agreements that set them. Structures follow the frameworks named. Any state or progress drawn is illustrative, not a record.
Policy instrument matrix
The kinds of instrument available on climate and adaptation policy, by level of government and cooperation.
| Instrument type | Local | National | Regional | Global |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory | Zoning, building codes | Laws, standards, licensing | Harmonised rules | Conventions and treaties |
| Economic | Local levies, grants | Budget lines, taxes, insurance schemes | Risk pools, regional funds | Financing mechanisms |
| Information | Local warnings | Disclosure, early warning, statistics | Data sharing arrangements | Global monitoring and reporting |
| Institutional | Local committees | Lead agencies, coordination councils | Regional bodies and secretariats | Multilateral mandates |
| Cooperative | Community agreements | Partnership compacts | Memoranda and joint programmes | Agreements and joint commitments |
How the evidence is built, and where it stops.
- 01
Adaptive pathways analysis
Mapping sequences of decisions and triggers with decision analysis under uncertainty. It requires sustained monitoring to work.
- 02
Policy comparison
Comparing adaptation plans and institutions with policy and institutional science. Plans are often recent and outcomes not yet observable.
- 03
Distributional analysis
Assessing who benefits and who bears costs. Data on vulnerability is often coarse.
- 04
Evaluation
Assessing effects of adaptation measures with causal inference. Benefits occur in future events, making evaluation hard.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Decision analysis under uncertaintyOption appraisal for a policy instrument · Adaptive pathways for public planningApplied here
- 02Policy, institutional and decision scienceMandate mapping for a cross-sector risk · Review of regulatory impact assessmentsApplied here
- 03Causal inference and impact evaluationStaggered adoption of a reform · Eligibility thresholds in programmesApplied here
- 04Game theory and mechanism designStability of a transboundary agreement · Design of a regional risk poolApplied here
Questions and answers.
What is maladaptation?
What does an independent climate council do?
What are adaptive pathways?
Why include nature in climate policy?
Does GRF take positions on climate targets?
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