Option appraisal for a policy instrument
Regulation, information, incentives and public provision are compared on stated criteria with multi-criteria analysis, and the weights are shown so stakeholders can see how the ranking depends on them.
GRF · Policy Nexus
Decision analysis for public choices
Decision analysis under uncertainty structures public choices where outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. In this field it supports option analysis for mandates, instruments and investments, makes value judgements explicit, and helps institutions choose actions that remain acceptable across plausible futures rather than optimal for one.
01Register
Decision analysis for public choices on the record.
Method recordSTEM method
- MethodDecision analysis under uncertainty
- StewardSystemic Risk Management
- Applied inPolicy Nexus
- Data4 inputs
- Checks4 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Application
What decision analysis under uncertainty does here.
Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. It makes trade-offs and value judgements explicit. In policy, governance and institutions and risk management and systemic risk, decision analysis helps choose actions that perform acceptably across interconnected risks and uncertain futures. It clarifies when to act now and when to keep options open. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Adaptive pathways for public planning
Sequences of measures are laid out with signposts and tipping points, so a plan names the conditions under which it should switch course before those conditions arrive.
Value of information for policy evidence
Analysts estimate whether further evidence, such as a pilot or an evaluation, could change the decision enough to justify its delay and cost.
03Monitor
Uncertainty analysis.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Uncertainty analysis
Policy · Decision analysis for public · Run R-3001
Sensitivity rankedGRF · Policy Nexus
Total-order sensitivity
Output distribution
Inputs
| Policies tracked | Lognormal | policies, stated | expert elicitation |
| In consultation | Uniform | policies, stated | expert elicitation |
| Implementation milestones met | Lognormal | of milestones, stated | expert elicitation |
| Evaluations scheduled | Lognormal | evaluations, stated | expert elicitation |
04Data
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by decision analysis under uncertainty on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Data | Role | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Expert elicitation | Probabilities where data are thin | ESTIMATED |
| Scenario sets | Plausible futures for stress-testing options | MODELLED |
| Cost and benefit estimates | Consequences of options | ESTIMATED |
| Consultation records and preference surveys | Criteria and weights | REPORTED |
05Instruments and commitments
How decision analysis for public choices is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.
The instruments, mandates, actors and accountability arrangements a policymaker, diplomat or development agency works with, citing the agreements that set them. Structures follow the frameworks named. Any state or progress drawn is illustrative, not a record.
Policy instrument matrix
The kinds of instrument available on decision analysis for public choices, by level of government and cooperation.
| Instrument type | Local | National | Regional | Global |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory | Zoning, building codes | Laws, standards, licensing | Harmonised rules | Conventions and treaties |
| Economic | Local levies, grants | Budget lines, taxes, insurance schemes | Risk pools, regional funds | Financing mechanisms |
| Information | Local warnings | Disclosure, early warning, statistics | Data sharing arrangements | Global monitoring and reporting |
| Institutional | Local committees | Lead agencies, coordination councils | Regional bodies and secretariats | Multilateral mandates |
| Cooperative | Community agreements | Partnership compacts | Memoranda and joint programmes | Agreements and joint commitments |
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction · UNDRRParis Agreement · UNFCCC2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals · United NationsInternational Health Regulations · WHO
06Validation
How results are checked.
Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.
| Check | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Sensitivity analysis | Weights, probabilities and costs are varied to show which drive the choice |
| Structured elicitation protocol | Expert judgements follow a documented protocol with calibration questions and stated aggregation rules |
| Stakeholder review | Criteria and weights are reviewed by those affected before the analysis is finalised |
| Retrospective review | Past decisions are compared with outcomes to learn about the process, not to judge by hindsight |
Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.
07Process
How the process runs.
Process explorer · Process
Decision analysis for public choices: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability
10 steps·4 stages
Process
Decision analysis for public choices: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability
In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system's exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.
01 Drivers
- 01HazardDataset · Consultation leadThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
- 02ExposureDataset · Consultation leadThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
- 03SensitivityDataset · Consultation leadThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
- 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · Consultation leadThe ability of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.
02 Assessment
- 05Risk from responsesComponent · Consultation leadRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
- 06VulnerabilityComponent · Consultation leadThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
- 07RiskModel · Policy NexusRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system's exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.
03 Response
- 08Risk management and responseStep · Consultation leadRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
- 09Residual riskRecord · Consultation leadThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.
04 Decision
- 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · Consultation leadThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.
Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.
09Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Systemic Risk Management stewards decision analysis under uncertainty for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
10Connected
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
11Questions
Questions and answers.
What are the limits of decision analysis under uncertainty in this field?
Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.
How are results checked?
Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method's use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
The canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
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