The Global Risks Forum (GRF)
Topics at Foresight Nexus: the pages in this section are listed below, each with its own scope and status.
GRF · Established · service level R0
The Foresight Nexus topics are the eight subject dossiers of its field, among them horizon scanning, strategic scenarios and deep uncertainty. Each dossier sets out how the risk develops, what is measured and in which units, the public sources and their licences, the methods, who decides and the limits of the evidence.
GRF convenes and governs programmes. It does not regulate, finance, procure or certify, and hosting or sponsorship confers no authority over findings.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Weak signal | An early, ambiguous indication of a change that may grow in significance. |
| Critical uncertainty | A driver that is both highly uncertain and highly important, used to define scenario axes. |
| Regret | The difference between an option's outcome in a given future and the best outcome available in that future. |
| Technology convergence | The combination of technologies from different fields into new capabilities. |
| Forecasting tournament | A competition in which forecasters predict well-defined questions and are scored on accuracy. |
Signals, emergence and source quality.
TopicPlausible alternative futures.
TopicMethods when probabilities are contested.
TopicEmerging and converging technology.
TopicPolitical economy and strategic shocks.
TopicAgeing, migration, trust and cohesion.
TopicLong-term public value and stewardship.
TopicScenario-informed policy, not predictions.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.