GRF · Health and Biosecurity Governance
Pandemic governance
A pandemic tests every level of governance at once: international rules on notification and response, national emergency powers, health systems, economies and public trust. The International Health Regulations set binding obligations, and the WHO Pandemic Agreement adds commitments that await a key annex before signature. This page sets out how pandemic governance holds or fails, the records that show it, and who decides.
Pandemic governance on the record.
Pandemic governance: how the risk develops.
International and domestic authority relationships. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Notification is delayed
States may hesitate to report an unusual outbreak because of trade, travel and reputational costs. Each day of delay lets spread continue before others can prepare.
Recommendations lack force
WHO declarations and temporary recommendations guide states but cannot compel them. Travel bans, export restrictions and divergent measures often go beyond or against recommendations.
Authority fragments domestically
Health ministries, heads of government, regional authorities and courts all shape national response. Unclear lines of authority produce inconsistent measures and contested legitimacy.
Finance comes after the crisis
Preparedness funding rises after each emergency and fades as attention moves on. Response finance arrives late, and low-income countries depend on external funds with conditions.
Environmental exposure in Southern Africa.
Population density, daytime surface heat and haze over Southern Africa, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Environmental exposure, for this page
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Environmental exposure, framed on Southern Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NOAA GOES-East ABI GeoColorSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- OMI nitrogen dioxide (Aura) and OMPS aerosol index (Suomi NPP), NASA; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: NOAA GOES-East ABI GeoColor (CIRA). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (14 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Nitrogen dioxide, lower atmosphere column: OMI Aura, NASA GES DISC · 10 Oct 2026
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IHR capacity score | average percent across capacities | annual | State party self-assessment annual reporting (SPAR) | DECLARED |
| Time from detection to notification to WHO | days | per event | Event records and reviews | REPORTED |
| Public health emergencies of international concern declared | count | on declaration | WHO records | Published statistics |
| Travel measures beyond WHO recommendations | count of states | per event | WHO reports to the World Health Assembly | Published statistics |
| Pandemic preparedness funding committed | currency | annual | Pandemic Fund and donor records | REPORTED |
| Ratifications of the WHO Pandemic Agreement | count | on change | UN treaty records | Published statistics |
IHR event governance desk.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
IHR event governance desk
Pandemic governance · National IHR focal point · Event EV-4957
Event handling
- Signaldetected
- Verifywith source
- AssessAnnex 2
- Notifywithin 24 h
- Respondmeasures
- Reviewafter action
Annex 2 questions
- Serious public health impact?
- Possibly
- Unusual or unexpected?
- Yes
- Risk of international spread?
- Assessing
- Risk of travel or trade restriction?
- Low
Core capacities
self-assessment score vs target
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| WHO e-SPAR platform | Annual IHR self-assessment scores by country | Public, WHO terms |
| WHO Disease Outbreak News and IHR event records | Published outbreak information | Free, WHO terms |
| Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response report | Review of the COVID-19 response and recommendations | Free to read, terms to check |
| Global Preparedness Monitoring Board reports | Annual assessment of preparedness | Free to read, WHO and World Bank terms |
| Pandemic Fund project records | Grants for prevention, preparedness and response | Public, World Bank terms |
| Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker | Coded government measures during COVID-19 | CC BY 4.0 |
When measures start, and how much they buy.
How the start day and the strength of contact measures change the size and timing of the peak and the share ever infected, the trade-off a public health decision weighs. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows Southern Africa; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Basic reproduction number R0
- 2.5
- Latent period
- 3.0 days
- Infectious period
- 5.0 days
- Share of contacts made in other places
- 8%
- Places in the network
- 24
- Measures start on day
- 40
- Contact reduction from measures
- 40%
- Days simulated
- 240 days
Readouts
- Peak new infections
- 6.03 per 1,000 a day
- Day of the peak
- 130
- Share ever infected
- 58%
- Places reached
- 100%
- Reproduction number under measures
- 1.50
Numbers, methods and sources
| Day | New infections per 1,000 | Cumulative infected (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 |
| 17 | 0.02 | 0.0 |
| 34 | 0.26 | 0.2 |
| 51 | 0.81 | 1.2 |
| 68 | 1.58 | 3.2 |
| 85 | 2.87 | 7.0 |
| 102 | 4.50 | 13.3 |
| 119 | 5.78 | 22.2 |
| 136 | 5.95 | 32.4 |
| 153 | 5.03 | 41.8 |
| 170 | 3.59 | 49.1 |
| 187 | 2.15 | 53.8 |
| 204 | 1.08 | 56.5 |
| 221 | 0.49 | 57.7 |
| 238 | 0.21 | 58.2 |
Methods
- SEIR compartments Kermack and McKendrick (1927), Proc. R. Soc. A 115
- Metapopulation coupling by mobility Balcan and others (2009), PNAS 106
- Small-world network Watts and Strogatz (1998), Nature 393
- Modelling infectious diseases Keeling and Rohani (2008), Princeton University Press
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page's map can draw:
- Cities Natural Earth
- Airports Natural Earth
- Major roads Natural Earth
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Health and Biosecurity Governance in Foundry
- Tested at Health and Biosecurity Governance in Universe
- Codified in Health and Biosecurity in Standards
- Published in Health and Biosecurity Governance in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Health and Society in Academy
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Health and Biosecurity Governance prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| WHO Director-General and Emergency Committees | Whether an event is a public health emergency or pandemic emergency and what to recommend | Event data and IHR procedures; WHO decides under its rules |
| Health ministries and national IHR authorities | When to notify and how to implement obligations | IHR requirements and lessons from past events |
| Heads of government and legislatures | Which emergency measures to adopt and how to review them | Comparative measures and their records |
| World Health Assembly | Whether to adopt the pathogen access and benefit-sharing annex | Negotiation records and comparative access and benefit arrangements |
Outputs this topic produces
- Guide to obligations under the amended International Health Regulations
- Comparative notes on national pandemic emergency powers
- Dialogue briefs on the Pandemic Agreement and its pending annex
- Questions for legislatures on pandemic preparedness finance
From mandate to evaluation, by pillar.
The steps an instrument takes from mandate to evaluation, each with the pillar that runs it, and the decisions that stay with the authority. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows Southern Africa; the model itself is not tied to a place.
- Mandate and problem framing Competent authority (outside the programme)
A competent authority frames the problem and the mandate under its own rules. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Evidence and system model Foundry
The system is modelled with its feedbacks, data and stated limits. OECD (2014), principle 2 - Options appraised with scenarios Foundry
Instruments are compared under scenarios, with uncertainty shown. Hood (1983) - Exercise with stakeholders Universe
The options are tested in an exercise with those who would implement and bear them. OECD (2014), principle 3 - Standard or guidance drafted Nexus Standards
What works is codified as a standard or guidance, open to comment. Nexus Standards process - Decision by the authority Competent authority (outside the programme)
The authority decides, outside the programme, with the evidence on record. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) - Capacity and training Risk Academy
Those who implement are trained on the decided instrument and its data. Sendai Framework (2015), priority 2 - Monitoring and public report Reports
Indicators are published with sources, limits and corrections. OECD (2014), principle 5 - Evaluation and revision Nexus Standards
Results return to the standard and the model: the cycle closes. Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)
Methods
- Policy cycle Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press
- Governance of critical risks OECD (2014), Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks
- Layered drawing of directed graphs Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Health and Biosecurity Governance in Foundry
- Tested at Health and Biosecurity Governance in Universe
- Codified in Health and Biosecurity in Standards
- Published in Health and Biosecurity Governance in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Health and Society in Academy
What experts ask.
The questions turn on obligation, capacity and accountability.
- What do international instruments require of states, and how is compliance encouraged or assessed?
- How are powers divided between national, regional and local authorities during an emergency?
- How quickly and completely are events notified and information shared?
- How are access to pathogen samples and the sharing of benefits, such as vaccines, linked?
- Who is accountable when preparedness or response fails?
Exercise a cascade in pandemic governance with the people who decide.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Health security and One Health: the hazards it names, the systems and communities that carry the loss, the controls and institutions that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating event and step through the cascade to see where mandates meet and which decisions fall to whom. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise for dialogue, not a forecast, an assessment or a position. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Antimicrobial resistance
- Tuberculosis surge (set off downstream)
- Typhoid and paratyphoid fever (set off downstream)
- Health-system overload (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
- Health security and One Health
- Biological hazard standards Mechanism
- Biodiversity and nature risk standards Common driver
- Food and agriculture risk standards Mechanism
- Global and systemic risk Cascade
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NRS-H83Hazard family: Health system capacity failure (NHS-1 health.system)NRS-H42Hazard family: Rare and persistent human infections (NHS-1 health.other-human)NRS-H41Hazard family: Animal-to-human spillover (NHS-1 health.zoonotic)NRS-H43Hazard family: Livestock and aquaculture epizootics (NHS-1 health.animal-health)NRS-D3Humanitarian response and resilient recoveryNRS-H46Hazard family: Environmental and product harm to people (NHS-1 health.harm)
Observation
- WHO Disease Outbreak News (listed for reference)
- WAHIS animal health events (listed for reference)
- WorldPop gridded population (listed for reference)
- International Health Regulations capacity and health emergency preparedness
- Percentage of bloodstream infections due to selected antimicrobial-resistant organisms
Example geography
- West Africa: 59 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
Mechanisms and drivers.
International health law relies largely on state cooperation. Obligations to build core capacities, notify events and avoid unnecessary restrictions on travel and trade depend on national implementation, and there are few enforcement mechanisms. Incentives can work against early reporting, since states may fear economic and reputational costs.
Domestically, emergency powers are often fragmented between levels of government and between ministries. Clear legal authority, tested coordination arrangements and sustained financing are associated with faster, more coherent responses. Equity between countries, particularly in access to countermeasures, has become a central issue in recent negotiations.
Why now: amended International Health Regulations, including a pandemic emergency alert level, entered into force in September 2025, and the World Health Assembly adopted the WHO Pandemic Agreement in May 2025. The platform is designed to convene the institutions inside and outside health that must make these rules work, and to exercise their arrangements.
Coupled risk, applied response.
The sectors a policy on pandemic has to coordinate: a choice in one ministry lands in the others.
Choose a context
Sectors · PandemicStress
Pillars · PandemicKPI
In this contextDependence or handoff, heavier is strongerOutside this context
Programme yearAll phases
Context
Pandemic
Workforce absence ripples from clinics into grid operations, logistics and farm labour.
W · E · I · F · H · B
Risk
- Sectors
- 4 of 6
- Relations
- 6 of 15
- Coupling
- 0.41 share of total
Hover a corner, a line or a row to trace it across both sides.
Route
Applied to pandemic
L · F · U · S · R · A
Response
- Pillars
- 4 of 6
- Handoffs
- 10 of 18
- Loops
- 5 closed
Expected value
- What is at stake
- $60B+expected losses a yearCommission on a Global Health Risk Framework, 2016
- Return on resilience
- –no published benchmark
- Avoided loss
- –no published benchmark
Hover a pillar, a line or a row to read how it is applied.
A: a teaching cascade (shock 0.6, gain 0.35, four rounds) over teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements. B: illustrative applications and the KPI each pillar answers for; values are published benchmarks, cited, not forecasts. Open events: NASA EONET, live.
How it is studied, and where the methods stop.
| Method or data | What it shows | Limits |
|---|---|---|
| Legal and institutional analysis | What instruments and national laws provide | Law on paper may differ from practice |
| Comparative case studies of responses | How institutional arrangements performed | Many confounding factors |
| Preparedness assessments and after-action reviews | Capacities and gaps | Self-assessment can be optimistic |
| Simulation exercises | How arrangements work under pressure | Exercises cannot reproduce real political stakes |
How pandemic governance is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.
The instruments, mandates, actors and accountability arrangements a policymaker, diplomat or development agency works with, citing the agreements that set them. Structures follow the frameworks named. Any state or progress drawn is illustrative, not a record.
Policy instrument matrix
The kinds of instrument available on pandemic governance, by level of government and cooperation.
| Instrument type | Local | National | Regional | Global |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory | Zoning, building codes | Laws, standards, licensing | Harmonised rules | Conventions and treaties |
| Economic | Local levies, grants | Budget lines, taxes, insurance schemes | Risk pools, regional funds | Financing mechanisms |
| Information | Local warnings | Disclosure, early warning, statistics | Data sharing arrangements | Global monitoring and reporting |
| Institutional | Local committees | Lead agencies, coordination councils | Regional bodies and secretariats | Multilateral mandates |
| Cooperative | Community agreements | Partnership compacts | Memoranda and joint programmes | Agreements and joint commitments |
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Policy, institutional and decision scienceComparing emergency health law · Tracing review recommendations · Mapping cooperationApplied here
- 02Epidemiology and public health scienceEarly outbreak parameters · Equity in outcomes · Evaluating measuresApplied here
- 03Molecular and life sciencesCountermeasure development pathways · Biosafety risk assessmentApplied here
Questions and answers.
What is a public health emergency of international concern?
What changed in the amended IHR?
Is the WHO Pandemic Agreement in force?
Can international bodies enforce pandemic rules?
Why does early notification matter so much?
How do pandemic arrangements change after a crisis?
Does the platform advise governments on pandemic measures?
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