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Reports · Global Risks Forum

The Reports pillar · Public meaning, key M

グローバル・リスク・フォーラム（Global Risks Forum）のレポート

Where every output of the Consortium’s programme is published, in every format, with its sources, its status and its corrections. GRF holds the public meaning of every edition: what a finding means for governance, diplomacy and public trust, and how it is said without overreach. It brings what its councils, dialogues and working groups learn into the series.

Browse the editionsRead the global edition
Editions drafted
86 of 86
drafted in stewardship review; the rest in preparation
Outputs on this site
258
of 602 formats recorded
知見
1032
each with its status and source
Correction notices
0
none yet; nothing released
01GRF Public Deliberation

This desk’s editions: Public Deliberation.

What convenings, councils and the public concluded: positions, dissent and open questions. Each edition is in preparation: its frame is set and chapter 6 carries the desk’s reading from the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) edition. They are parts of the Reports Collection 2026, compiled by GCRI Canada.

The Collection The open call: which desk takes whatサイクル

Cycle dates are set by the editor. The Collection is released only after every desk edition in it is released. A desk that does not release in a cycle is listed as not in this cycle, never filled in by another desk.

02This desk

What GRF Public Deliberation reports.

The Forum reads an edition for public meaning: what a finding means for governance, diplomacy and trust, and how it can be said without overclaiming.

The Forum deposits session records, positions and the open questions of its series, with the dissent attached to each conclusion.

03Edition index

Every edition, every output, every format.

Filter by region, theme, year and the formats on this site. Each edition opens its outputs, where they came from and how to cite them. An edition is published only when it is deposited with its DOI; until then it stays in stewardship review.

地域Asia and Pacificヨーロッパグローバル北米
テーマCountry systemsGlobal and sectorStrategic systems技術
年2026
本サイトについてWeb editionIndicator dataFigures

本サイトについてAt release, with the signed bundle and its DOINot recorded for this edition

  1. GLBGlobal Systems 2026グローバル システム Risk & Resilience ReportGlobal · Global and sector · 2026 · DRAFTNR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
    Outputs, provenance and citation

    成果物

    • Web edition. Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Report 2026, Baseline Edition, NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE.
    • Print edition. A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change.
    • Indicator data. 19 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global baseline indicator set 2026, NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE data release v1. GCRI, 2026.
    • Figures. 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Report 2026, Baseline Edition, Figure n.m (FIG-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-CH-NNN), v1.0.0.
    • Slides. No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
    • Evidence brief. No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
    • Dataset with DOI. Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

    来歴

    Edition pack
    The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
    証拠の区切り
    DC-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
    Reproducibility
    sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
    Self-check
    14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
    審査
    five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
    正式な発行者
    GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
    訂正
    Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

    Cite as · NR-CIT-1

    S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change.

    Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit

    Publication record
  2. CANCanada 2026Country Systems Risk & Resilience ReportNorth America · Country systems · 2026 · DRAFTNR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
    Outputs, provenance and citation

    成果物

    • Web edition. Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Report 2026, Baseline Edition, NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE.
    • Print edition. A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems.
    • Indicator data. 20 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada baseline indicator set 2026, NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE data release v1. GCRI, 2026.
    • Figures. 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Report 2026, Baseline Edition, Figure n.m (FIG-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-CH-NNN), v1.0.0.
    • Slides. No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
    • Evidence brief. No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
    • Dataset with DOI. Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

    来歴

    Edition pack
    The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
    証拠の区切り
    NQ-CAN-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
    Reproducibility
    sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
    Self-check
    14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
    審査
    five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
    正式な発行者
    GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
    訂正
    Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

    Cite as · NR-CIT-1

    S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems.

    Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit

    Publication record
  3. USAUnited States 2026Country Systems Risk & Resilience ReportNorth America · Country systems · 2026 · DRAFTNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
    Outputs, provenance and citation

    成果物

    • Web edition. Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. Valadbaygi (ed.), United States Report 2026, Baseline Edition, NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE.
    • Print edition. A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United States Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems.
    • Indicator data. 18 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United States baseline indicator set 2026, NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE data release v1. GCRI, 2026.
    • Figures. 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United States Report 2026, Baseline Edition, Figure n.m (FIG-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-CH-NNN), v1.0.0.
    • Slides. No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
    • Evidence brief. No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
    • Dataset with DOI. Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

    来歴

    Edition pack
    The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
    証拠の区切り
    NQ-USA-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
    Reproducibility
    sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
    Self-check
    14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
    審査
    five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
    正式な発行者
    GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
    訂正
    Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

    Cite as · NR-CIT-1

    S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United States Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems.

    Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit

    Publication record
  4. GBRUnited Kingdom 2026Country Systems Risk & Resilience ReportEurope · Country systems · 2026 · DRAFTNR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
    Outputs, provenance and citation

    成果物

    • Web edition. Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom Report 2026, Baseline Edition, NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE.
    • Print edition. A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems.
    • Indicator data. 16 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom baseline indicator set 2026, NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE data release v1. GCRI, 2026.
    • Figures. 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom Report 2026, Baseline Edition, Figure n.m (FIG-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-CH-NNN), v1.0.0.
    • Slides. No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
    • Evidence brief. No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
    • Dataset with DOI. Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

    来歴

    Edition pack
    The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
    証拠の区切り
    NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
    Reproducibility
    sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
    Self-check
    14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
    審査
    five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
    正式な発行者
    GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
    訂正
    Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

    Cite as · NR-CIT-1

    S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems.

    Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit

    Publication record
  5. FRAFrance 2026Country Systems Risk & Resilience ReportEurope · Country systems · 2026 · DRAFTNR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
    Outputs, provenance and citation

    成果物

    • Web edition. Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. Valadbaygi (ed.), France Report 2026, Baseline Edition, NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE.
    • Print edition. A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), France Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems.
    • Indicator data. 16 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), France baseline indicator set 2026, NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE data release v1. GCRI, 2026.
    • Figures. 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), France Report 2026, Baseline Edition, Figure n.m (FIG-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-CH-NNN), v1.0.0.
    • Slides. No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
    • Evidence brief. No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
    • Dataset with DOI. Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

    来歴

    Edition pack
    The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
    証拠の区切り
    NQ-FRA-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
    Reproducibility
    sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
    Self-check
    14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
    審査
    five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
    正式な発行者
    GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
    訂正
    Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

    Cite as · NR-CIT-1

    S. Valadbaygi (ed.), France Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems.

    Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit

    Publication record
  6. DEUGermany 2026Country Systems Risk & Resilience ReportEurope · Country systems · 2026 · DRAFTNR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
    Outputs, provenance and citation

    成果物

    • Web edition. Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. Valadbaygi (ed.), Germany Report 2026, Baseline Edition, NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE.
    • Print edition. A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Germany Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems.
    • Indicator data. 14 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Germany baseline indicator set 2026, NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE data release v1. GCRI, 2026.
    • Figures. 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Germany Report 2026, Baseline Edition, Figure n.m (FIG-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-CH-NNN), v1.0.0.
    • Slides. No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
    • Evidence brief. No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
    • Dataset with DOI. Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

    来歴

    Edition pack
    The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
    証拠の区切り
    NQ-DEU-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
    Reproducibility
    sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
    Self-check
    14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
    審査
    five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
    正式な発行者
    GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
    訂正
    Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

    Cite as · NR-CIT-1

    S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Germany Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems.

    Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit

    Publication record
  7. ITAItaly 2026Country Systems Risk & Resilience ReportEurope · Country systems · 2026 · DRAFTNR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
    Outputs, provenance and citation

    成果物

    • Web edition. Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. Valadbaygi (ed.), Italy Report 2026, Baseline Edition, NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE.
    • Print edition. A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Italy Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems.
    • Indicator data. 16 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Italy baseline indicator set 2026, NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE data release v1. GCRI, 2026.
    • Figures. 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Italy Report 2026, Baseline Edition, Figure n.m (FIG-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-CH-NNN), v1.0.0.
    • Slides. No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
    • Evidence brief. No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
    • Dataset with DOI. Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

    来歴

    Edition pack
    The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
    証拠の区切り
    NQ-ITA-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
    Reproducibility
    sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
    Self-check
    14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
    審査
    five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
    正式な発行者
    GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
    訂正
    Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

    Cite as · NR-CIT-1

    S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Italy Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems.

    Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit

    Publication record
  8. JPNJapan 2026Country Systems Risk & Resilience ReportAsia and Pacific · Country systems · 2026 · DRAFTNR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
    Outputs, provenance and citation

    成果物

    • Web edition. Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. Valadbaygi (ed.), Japan Report 2026, Baseline Edition, NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE.
    • Print edition. A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Japan Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems.
    • Indicator data. 17 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Japan baseline indicator set 2026, NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE data release v1. GCRI, 2026.
    • Figures. 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Japan Report 2026, Baseline Edition, Figure n.m (FIG-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-CH-NNN), v1.0.0.
    • Slides. No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
    • Evidence brief. No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
    • Dataset with DOI. Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

    来歴

    Edition pack
    The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
    証拠の区切り
    NQ-JPN-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
    Reproducibility
    sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
    Self-check
    14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
    審査
    five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
    正式な発行者
    GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
    訂正
    Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

    Cite as · NR-CIT-1

    S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Japan Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems.

    Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit

    Publication record
  9. GS-01Global Water 2026Global Sector Report · GS-01Global · Global and sector · 2026 · DRAFTNR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
    Outputs, provenance and citation

    成果物

    • Web edition. Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Report 2026, Baseline Edition, NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.
    • Print edition. A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of the World’s Water System.
    • Indicator data. 18 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global water baseline indicator set 2026, NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1. GCRI, 2026.
    • Figures. 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Report 2026, Baseline Edition, Figure n.m (FIG-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CH-NNN), v1.0.0.
    • Slides. No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
    • Evidence brief. No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
    • Dataset with DOI. Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

    来歴

    Edition pack
    The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
    証拠の区切り
    DC-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
    Reproducibility
    sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
    Self-check
    14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
    審査
    five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
    正式な発行者
    GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
    訂正
    Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

    Cite as · NR-CIT-1

    S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of the World’s Water System.

    Reports series · Global Sector Series GS-01 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit

    Publication record
  10. SR-01Global Polycrisis 2026Strategic Systems Report · SR-01Global · Strategic systems · 2026 · DRAFTNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
    Outputs, provenance and citation

    成果物

    • Web edition. Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. Valadbaygi (ed.), Polycrisis Report 2026, Baseline Edition, NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.
    • Print edition. A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Strategic Systems Report 2026, Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk, Baseline Edition.
    • Indicator data. 19 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Polycrisis baseline indicator set 2026, NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1. GCRI, 2026.
    • Figures. 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Polycrisis Report 2026, Baseline Edition, Figure n.m (FIG-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CH-NNN), v1.0.0.
    • Slides. No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
    • Evidence brief. No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
    • Dataset with DOI. Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

    来歴

    Edition pack
    The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
    証拠の区切り
    DC-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
    Reproducibility
    sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
    Self-check
    14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
    審査
    five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
    正式な発行者
    GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
    訂正
    Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

    Cite as · NR-CIT-1

    S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Strategic Systems Report 2026, Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk, Baseline Edition.

    Reports series · Strategic Systems Series SR-01 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit

    Publication record
  11. XT-01AI and Agentic Systems 2026Exponential Technology Report · XT-01Global · Technology · 2026 · DRAFTNR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
    Outputs, provenance and citation

    成果物

    • Web edition. Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. Valadbaygi (ed.), AI and Agentic Systems Report 2026, Baseline Edition, NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.
    • Print edition. A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026, Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition.
    • Indicator data. 15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), AI baseline indicator set 2026, NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1. GCRI, 2026.
    • Figures. 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. S. Valadbaygi (ed.), AI and Agentic Systems Report 2026, Baseline Edition, Figure n.m (FIG-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CH-NNN), v1.0.0.
    • Slides. No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
    • Evidence brief. No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
    • Dataset with DOI. Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

    来歴

    Edition pack
    The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
    証拠の区切り
    DC-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
    Reproducibility
    sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
    Self-check
    14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
    審査
    five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
    正式な発行者
    GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
    訂正
    Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

    Cite as · NR-CIT-1

    S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026, Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition.

    Reports series · Exponential Technology Series XT-01 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit

    Publication record

11 drafted editions, ordered by family and code, never by value. 75 more Baseline Edition 2026 editions are in preparation and have no outputs yet; they are listed on the programme board.

This shelf shows 11 of 86 drafted editions. The full list, with every subject, is in the catalogue. Open the catalogue

Baseline Edition 2026Drafted, in stewardship review
  1. NEXUS REPORTS GLB Global and sector グローバル・システム Baseline Edition 2026 The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change, the global baseline NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 In stewardship review W0
  2. NEXUS REPORTS CAN Countries and unions カナダ Baseline Edition 2026 The state of Canada’s interdependent systems, water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, and the national risk portfolio at the 2026 baseline NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 In stewardship review W0
  3. NEXUS REPORTS USA Countries and unions 米国 Baseline Edition 2026 The state of the United States’ interdependent systems, water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, and the national risk portfolio at the 2026 baseline NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 In stewardship review W1
  4. NEXUS REPORTS GBR Countries and unions 英国 Baseline Edition 2026 The state of the United Kingdom’s interdependent systems, water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, and the national risk portfolio at the 2026 baseline NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 In stewardship review W1
  5. NEXUS REPORTS FRA Countries and unions フランス Baseline Edition 2026 The state of France’s interdependent systems, water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, and the national risk portfolio at the 2026 baseline NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 In stewardship review W1
  6. NEXUS REPORTS DEU Countries and unions ドイツ Baseline Edition 2026 The state of Germany’s interdependent systems, water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, and the national risk portfolio at the 2026 baseline NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 In stewardship review W1
  7. NEXUS REPORTS ITA Countries and unions イタリア Baseline Edition 2026 The state of Italy’s interdependent systems, water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, and the national risk portfolio at the 2026 baseline NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 In stewardship review W1
  8. NEXUS REPORTS JPN Countries and unions 日本 Baseline Edition 2026 The state of Japan’s interdependent systems, water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, and the national risk portfolio at the 2026 baseline NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 In stewardship review W1
  9. NEXUS REPORTS GS-01 Global and sector グローバル・ウォーター Baseline Edition 2026 The state of the world’s water system, access, scarcity, extremes and the couplings to energy, food, health and nature, at the 2026 baseline NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 In stewardship review W0
  10. NEXUS REPORTS SR-01 Strategic systems 世界のポリクライシス Baseline Edition 2026 How crises become entangled, common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, food, energy, finance, health and conflict, at the 2026 baseline NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 In stewardship review W0
  11. NEXUS REPORTS XT-01 技術 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems Baseline Edition 2026 Artificial intelligence and agentic systems as physical infrastructure, compute, energy, water, chips, labour, safety and governance, at the 2026 baseline NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 In stewardship review W0
  1. 31 December 2026Q1 2027 · State and agenda
  2. 31 March 2027Q2 2027 · Evidence and build
  3. 30 June 2027Q3 2027 · Stress test and readiness
  4. 30 September 2027Q4 2027 · Annual flagship
04Lead edition · Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report

Global Systems 2026

The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change, the global baseline.

Abstract

The world enters 2027 more than 1.4 °C warmer than in the late nineteenth century. 2024 was the warmest year on record at 1.55 °C and 2025 the second or third warmest at 1.43 °C; the eleven years 2015–2025 are the eleven warmest observed [1]. Natural disasters caused US$224 billion in losses in 2025, of which US$108 billion was insured, the sixth successive year above US$100 billion insured, driven by floods, storms and wildfires rather than one peak event [2]. Energy-related emissions reached a record 37.8 Gt CO₂ in 2024 [4]; about 673 million people faced hunger [7]; monitored wildlife populations fell by 73% on average between 1970 and 2020 [9]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the global water, energy, food, health and biodiversity system, maps the couplings through which shocks travel between regions and sectors, and sets the questions the 2027 global edition will answer from national, regional and sector evidence. It ranks no country. It establishes where the evidence stands, what remains uncertain and what to watch.

Open the edition

Headline finding

報告値NRF-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

Insurers covered about 48% of the US$224 billion in natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa.

Implication

社会を動かし続ける protection gap is widest where exposure is growing fastest and fiscal space is thinnest. Uninsured losses become household debt, delayed reconstruction and pressure on public budgets, which feed back into vulnerability before the next event [2] [13] [18].

05Read the record

One coupled system, every edition, every finding.

One coupled system, read from the planet to the country.

Every edition reads the six-sector nexus of the estate doctrine (water, energy, infrastructure, food, health and biodiversity); the 2026 baseline assesses five of them, and the twenty couplings between those five, at its own scale. Infrastructure couplings are not yet assessed in any edition. Read together, they show where shocks travel, where they loop back and amplify, and where national context changes the picture.

  1. Planetary and sector2 of 16 drafted
    GLBグローバル・システムGS-01グローバル・ウォーター

    Strong in every drafted edition at this scale (11): WAT → ENE, WAT → FOO, WAT → HLT, WAT → BIO, ENE → FOO, ENE → HLT, FOO → WAT, FOO → HLT, FOO → BIO, BIO → WAT, BIO → FOO.

  2. Strategic システム1 of 14 drafted
    SR-01世界のポリクライシス

    Strong in every drafted edition at this scale (11): WAT → ENE, WAT → FOO, WAT → HLT, WAT → BIO, ENE → FOO, ENE → HLT, FOO → WAT, FOO → HLT, FOO → BIO, BIO → WAT, BIO → FOO.

  3. Technology systems1 of 20 drafted
    XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

    Strong in every drafted edition at this scale (11): WAT → ENE, WAT → FOO, WAT → HLT, WAT → BIO, ENE → FOO, ENE → HLT, FOO → WAT, FOO → HLT, FOO → BIO, BIO → WAT, BIO → FOO.

  4. 地域0 of 10 drafted
    In preparation; no edition at this scale is drafted yet.

  5. 国別7 of 26 drafted
    CANカナダUSA米国GBR英国FRAフランスDEUドイツITAイタリアJPN日本

    Strong in every drafted edition at this scale (8): WAT → FOO, WAT → BIO, ENE → FOO, ENE → HLT, FOO → HLT, FOO → BIO, BIO → WAT, BIO → FOO.

Reinforcing loops on the six-sector hexagon (Infrastructure is not yet assessed in any edition): 3 pairs rated strong in both directions in at least one edition
Line weight: the share of editions that rate both directions strong. Method: a causal-loop reading of each edition’s coupling matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000). Strengths are ◆ ESTIMATED; a loop here is structural, not a measured feedback.

Reinforcing loops · 3 pairs

  1. WAT ⇄ FOO水と食料GLBGS-01SR-01XT-014 of 11
  2. WAT ⇄ BIOWater and biodiversityGLBCANUSAGBRFRADEUITAJPNGS-01SR-01XT-0111 of 11
  3. FOO ⇄ BIOFood and biodiversityGLBCANUSAGBRFRADEUITAJPNGS-01SR-01XT-0111 of 11

Where a shock enters one system of a loop it returns amplified through the other; these are the pairs the 2027 stress tests read first. Pairs not listed carry at least one direction rated moderate or weak in every edition.

Where the editions differ · 3 of 20

  1. WAT → HLTWater to health
    1. GLB Strong
    2. CAN 中程度
    3. USA 中程度
    4. GBR 中程度
    5. FRA 中程度
    6. DEU 中程度
    7. ITA 中程度
    8. JPN 中程度
    9. GS-01 Strong
    10. SR-01 Strong
    11. XT-01 Strong
    4 strong · 7 moderate
  2. FOO → WATFood to water
    1. GLB Strong
    2. CAN 中程度
    3. USA 中程度
    4. GBR 中程度
    5. FRA 中程度
    6. DEU 中程度
    7. ITA 中程度
    8. JPN 中程度
    9. GS-01 Strong
    10. SR-01 Strong
    11. XT-01 Strong
    4 strong · 7 moderate
  3. WAT → ENEWater to energy
    1. GLB Strong
    2. CAN Strong
    3. USA Strong
    4. GBR 中程度
    5. FRA Strong
    6. DEU Strong
    7. ITA Strong
    8. JPN Strong
    9. GS-01 Strong
    10. SR-01 Strong
    11. XT-01 Strong
    10 strong · 1 moderate

The other 17 couplings carry the same strength in all 11 editions. Strong everywhere: WAT → FOO, WAT → BIO, ENE → FOO, ENE → HLT, FOO → HLT, FOO → BIO, BIO → WAT, BIO → FOO. Strengths are programme estimates (◆ ESTIMATED) from cited evidence and analogue events; a word, never a score.

The twenty couplings

From the row system to the column system. Strong, moderate or weak in every drafted edition; “varies” where they differ.
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·variesStrvariesStr
ENEMod·StrStrMod
FOOvariesWea·StrStr
HLTWeaWeaMod·Wea
BIOStrModStrMod·
06参加する

Corrections, editions, contributions and the release path.

Every version, and every notice.

A correction is a new version with a published notice. The log lists each edition’s versions and notices from its own publication record.

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

版バージョンDate状況変化通知
GLBNR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026草案Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,なし
CANNR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026草案Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,なし
USANR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026草案Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,なし
GBRNR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026草案Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,なし
FRANR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026草案Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,なし
DEUNR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026草案Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,なし
ITANR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026草案Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,なし
JPNNR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026草案Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,なし
GS-01NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026草案Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,なし
SR-01NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026草案Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,なし
XT-01NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026草案Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,なし

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence. How corrections work

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