- Global Polycrisis 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Crises are entangled, not stacked
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock
- 6Lenses and readings
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
S.1Abstract
The world in 2026 faces crises that are entangled rather than additive. Researchers identify three causal mechanisms: common causes that stress several systems at once, domino effects that carry a shock from one system to the next, and feedbacks between systems that amplify both24. The 2026 evidence shows all three. Warming at 1.43 °C in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024, is a common cause across water, food, health and nature1. Natural-disaster losses of US$224 billion in 2025, half of them uninsured, move through household balance sheets and public budgets2, where 3.4 billion people already live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education13. About 673 million people faced hunger in 20247 and 123.2 million were forcibly displaced12. Six of nine planetary boundaries are transgressed20. This Baseline Edition maps the mechanisms, fixes the reference state, and sets the questions the 2027 edition will test. It forecasts no collapse and ranks no threat.
S.2Key messages
Six readings that frame the global baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
1.43 °C above 1850–1900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024; 2023–2025 averaged 1.48 °C.140
How warm is the world?Reported
Insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running; 2025 losses were driven by floods, storms and wildfires.2
Are disaster losses rising?Reported
Half of 2025 losses were uninsured; in Asia almost nine-tenths were.2
Who carries the losses?Reported
No: energy CO₂ set a record in 2024, although clean power supplied about 41% of electricity.46
Are emissions falling?Reported
673 million people faced hunger in 2024; concurrent breadbasket failure is a rising tail risk.723
Is the food system stable?Reported
Wildlife populations fell by 73% on average from 1970 to 2020; six of nine planetary boundaries are transgressed.920
How fast is nature changing?Reported
Debt service: 3.4 billion people live where interest outweighs health or education spending.13
What constrains the response?Reported
A concurrent breadbasket shortfall coinciding with an energy and fertiliser price shock. SCN-SR01-BBF-01
What will 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003
Insurers covered about 48% of the US$224 billion in natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Insured | 108 | |
| Uninsured | 116 |
Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 20252; the uninsured share is the difference between overall and insured losses.
The protection gap is widest where exposure is growing fastest and fiscal space is thinnest. Uninsured losses become household debt, delayed reconstruction and pressure on public budgets, which feed back into vulnerability before the next event21318.
S.4At a glance
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports an entangled reading of global risk.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people global risk arrives as a price rise, a heat wave or a flood, and its burden depends on where they live.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. About half of disaster losses are uninsured, debt service crowds out adaptation, and climate disclosure standards are spreading.
NEXUS
Synthesis
The world’s crises share causes and channels.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A question-led baseline: how crises in climate, food, energy, finance, health and conflict become entangled through common causes, domino effects and feedbacks. It reads the same global evidence as the global edition, through the mechanisms that connect it.
What it is not
Not a list of crises, a prediction of collapse, a ranking of threats or countries, or a policy recommendation. It states where the scientific community disagrees before stating what this edition concludes.
What comes next
National, regional and sector evidence binds each mechanism in 2027. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 24M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockström, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, “Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,” Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024.back
- 1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
- 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
- 13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
- 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
- 12UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.back
- 20K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., “Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,” Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.back
- 40WMO (ed.), “WMO confirms 2025 was one of warmest years on record.” Press release. WMO, Geneva, January 2026.back
- 4International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
- 6Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025.back
- 23F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, “Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, pp. 54–57, 2020.back
- 9WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.back
- 18UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025.back
- 11UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
- 41WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025.back
- 3UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back