References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

11 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Crises are entangled, not stacked
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 48 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  2. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  3. 3UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  4. 4International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7
  6. 6Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6
  7. 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  9. 9WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  10. 10UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  11. 11UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6
  12. 12UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14World Health Organization (ed.), “Ambient (outdoor) air pollution” and “Household air pollution” fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  15. 15H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  16. 16P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17K. O’Brien, L. Garibaldi and A. Agrawal (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  19. 19World Economic Forum (ed.), Global Risks Report 2026, 21st edition. WEF, Cologny/Geneva, 2026.
  20. 20K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., “Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,” Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21T. M. Lenton, D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani et al. (eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, 2023. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  23. 23F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, “Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, pp. 54–57, 2020. Cited in the summary, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockström, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, “Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,” Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010.
  26. 26M. Romanello et al., “The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,” The Lancet, vol. 404, pp. 1847–1896, 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27World Health Assembly (ed.), WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1. WHO, Geneva, May 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  28. 28World Health Assembly (ed.), Amendments to the International Health Regulations (2005), resolution WHA77.17. WHO, Geneva, June 2024. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  29. 29UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  30. 30Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction. United Nations, New York, 2023. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  33. 33International Sustainability Standards Board (ed.), IFRS S1 General Requirements and IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures. IFRS Foundation, London, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 8
  36. 36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
  37. 37Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025. Cited in chapter 3
  38. 38UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme (ed.), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2024: Water for Prosperity and Peace. UNESCO, Paris, 2024.
  39. 39Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2024. ECMWF, Reading, January 2025. Cited in chapter 4
  40. 40WMO (ed.), “WMO confirms 2025 was one of warmest years on record.” Press release. WMO, Geneva, January 2026. Cited in the summary
  41. 41WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  43. 43World Bank Group (ed.), Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024: Pathways Out of the Polycrisis. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2024.
  44. 44International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024–26: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  45. 45S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  46. 46S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.
  47. 47J. Rockström, J. Gupta, D. Qin et al., “Safe and just Earth system boundaries,” Nature, vol. 619, pp. 102–111, 2023. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  48. 48World Bank Group (ed.), Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024: Pathways Out of the Polycrisis, extreme-poverty estimates. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2024.

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Strategic Systems Report 2026, Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Strategic Systems Series SR-01
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 polycrisis edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
SR-01NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-STR-SR-01-2026-BL
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Global Polycrisis; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Global Polycrisis, prefilled from this page
{
  "metadata": {
    "resource_type": {
      "id": "dataset"
    },
    "title": "Evidence on Global Polycrisis for Nexus Reports",
    "publication_date": "YYYY-MM-DD",
    "creators": [
      {
        "person_or_org": {
          "type": "personal",
          "family_name": "Your family name",
          "given_name": "Your given name",
          "identifiers": [
            {
              "scheme": "orcid",
              "identifier": "0000-0000-0000-0000"
            }
          ]
        },
        "affiliations": [
          {
            "id": "ROR identifier of your organisation"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "description": "What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk.",
    "rights": [
      {
        "id": "cc-by-4.0"
      }
    ],
    "subjects": [
      {
        "subject": "Nexus Reports"
      },
      {
        "subject": "Global Polycrisis"
      },
      {
        "subject": "Strategic Systems Report · SR-01"
      }
    ],
    "related_identifiers": [
      {
        "identifier": "https://globalriskforum.com/nexus-reports/editions/sr-01/",
        "scheme": "url",
        "relation_type": {
          "id": "issupplementto"
        },
        "resource_type": {
          "id": "publication-report"
        }
      }
    ],
    "version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "custom_fields": {},
  "access": {
    "record": "public",
    "files": "public"
  },
  "files": {
    "enabled": true
  },
  "parent": {
    "communities": {
      "default": "nexusreports"
    }
  }
}

C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. SR-01 edition Reports Global Polycrisis 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-01 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Global Polycrisis.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

Global Risks ForumStrategic Systems

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

The Global Risks Forum

Convening · leadership · urgency

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Support our work

Who funds us

GRF is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.