Lenses and readings

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

9 min read0 figures6 tables27 notesNR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Italy’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Drought-to-flood year
  8. 6Lenses and readings
    1. 6.1 Three lenses
    2. 6.2 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
    3. 6.3 GCRI reading: the model card
    4. 6.4 Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
    5. 6.5 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
    6. 6.6 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

6.1Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a heatwave, a flooded street or a crack after an earthquake. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that public debate weigh who carries the losses when fewer than one home in ten is insured.

HLT-004 · FIN-011 · GEO-010

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Italian risk. Heat, drought, cloudbursts, landslides and earthquakes are already recorded, and their losses fall mostly outside insurance. Evidence is strongest for emissions, heat mortality and hydrogeological exposure, and weakest for cross-system dependencies.

CLI-001 · HLT-004 · WAT-007 · SYS-012

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Very low insurance take-up13, a new business insurance mandate10 and an effort-sharing gap3 show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-011 · CLI-002

NEXUS

Synthesis

Italy observes its hazards well, its seismic and volcanic monitoring is among the strongest anywhere, but its territory, buildings and networks carry deep exposure that is mostly uninsured. The 2027 programme should test the drought-to-flood year, map hydrogeological exposure and measure who carries the losses.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02 · A-03

6.2Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

In 2022 the Po ran lower than in seventy years; in May 2023 rain on hardened soils flooded Romagna. Italy plans for drought and flood separately, but the most damaging years now bring both, one after the other, on the same land.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Drought, then flood

Italy recorded more heat-related deaths in 2022 than any other European country, in one of Europe’s oldest populations. Heat planning is therefore care planning: cooling, check-ins and housing as much as forecasts.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Heat is a question of age

With fewer than one home in ten insured against earthquake and flood, recovery has rested on public funds. The 2025 business insurance mandate is a first step; who carries household losses remains an open fiscal question.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

The State as insurer

More than two-fifths of the water put into municipal networks is lost. In a warming climate, every litre that leaks in a dry summer is a litre taken from farms, rivers or the next drought reserve.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Water lost before it is used

6.3GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.4Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.1Q1 2027 readiness pack
ItemRegisterState at baselineFirst Q1 2027 entry
E1National risk state deltabaseline set by this editionchanges against the baseline
E2WEFH+B state deltafive system readings setindicator updates and freshness
E3Agenda and Portfolio movementeight agenda items · six proposed objectsadmission decisions
E4NWG delivery registerno groups yetfirst monthly outputs
E5NNC capability registermembership opens in Q1 2027first contributions
E6NLC questions and challengesnone yetfirst challenge log
E7Foundry technical stateenvironment preparedfirst sealed cut
E8Publication candidatestwelve findings carried forwardPUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9Universe readinessone candidate missionadmission and role spine
E10Correction registernonefirst correction cycle

Publication dispositions

  • Publish
  • Hold
  • Needs evidence
  • Restricted
  • Superseded

6.5Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

  • IN FORCE
  • ADOPTED
  • PUBLISHED
  • IN CONSULTATION
Table 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
InstrumentBodyScopeStatusRelevance
European Climate Law38EUEUIN FORCE−55% by 2030; neutrality by 2050
Effort Sharing Regulation target −43.7%40EUItalyIN FORCEnon-ETS emissions to 2030
National energy and climate plan, PNIEC40MASEItalySUBMITTED 2024emissions and energy pathway
National adaptation plan, PNACC9MASEItalyAPPROVED 2023adaptation
Business catastrophe insurance, Law 213/202310ParliamentItalyIN FORCE · 2025mandatory cover for firms
Seismic building standards (NTC)Ministry of InfrastructureItalyIN FORCEseismic design
National risk assessment25DPCItalyPUBLISHED 2018disaster risk
Sendai Framework 2015–2030UNDRRinternationalADOPTED 2015disaster risk reduction

Changed since 2024

  • Mandatory catastrophe insurance for businesses began in 202510
  • The final national energy and climate plan was submitted in 202440
  • Campi Flegrei unrest intensified in 2024–202516

To watch in 2027

  • Compliance with the insurance mandate13
  • Implementation of the national adaptation plan9
  • Progress on the effort-sharing target3

6.6Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers statutory assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in Q1 2027.

Review protocol

Question
What does the published evidence establish about Italy’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks and its geohazards?
Sources searched
peer-reviewed literature; statutory plans and assessments; official statistics; agency and insurance data
Window
releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection
sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step
systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
Table 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Ballester et al.4journal article2023supportsheat deaths 2022
Gallo et al.5journal article2024supportsheat deaths 2023
Schneider et al.19journal article2020supportsXylella
Bondesan and Francese26journal article2023supportsMarmolada collapse
Lee and Romero (eds.)27assessment2023contextglobal forcing
Zscheischler et al.28journal article2018frameworkcompound events
McElwee et al. (eds.)30assessment2024contextnexus interlinkages
Table 6.4Institutional reports
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Hydrogeological report11ISPRA2021supportsexposure
National adaptation plan9MASE2023supportsadaptation
National risk assessment25DPC2018supportscapability
Table 6.5Official statistics and agency data
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Inventory 20261ISPRA2026supportsemissions
Electricity 20247Terna2025supportspower mix
Energy report8MASE2024supportsgas supply
Climate indicators21ISPRA · SNPA2025supportswarmest year
Water statistics12ISTAT2024supportsnetwork losses
Population6ISTAT2025supportsprofile
Po severity bulletins24AdBPo2022supportsdrought
Table 6.6Insurance, geohazards and nature
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Insurance yearbook13ANIA2025supportscover
Protection gap dashboard39EIOPA2026contextprotection gap
Campi Flegrei bulletins16INGV2024–25supportsvolcanic unrest
2016 earthquake15DPC2017supportsseismic losses
Emilia-Romagna floods14Regione Emilia-Romagna2023supportsflood damage
Forest fires 202120JRC2022supportswildfire

Where the evidence agrees

  • Heat is Italy’s deadliest climate hazard45
  • Most of the territory faces hydrogeological hazard11
  • Disaster losses are largely uninsured1339

Where it is unsettled

  • How often drought and flood will follow each other1424
  • How the Campi Flegrei unrest will evolve16
  • How fast the business insurance mandate will be met10

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
  2. 10Parlamento (ed.), Legge 30 dicembre 2023, n. 213, art. 1, commi 101–111: obbligo di copertura assicurativa contro i rischi catastrofali per le imprese. Gazzetta Ufficiale, Rome, 2023.back
  3. 3ISPRA (ed.), Le emissioni di gas serra in Italia: obiettivi di riduzione e scenari emissivi. ISPRA, Rome, 2026.back
  4. 38European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal L 243, 9 July 2021.back
  5. 40Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale Integrato per l’Energia e il Clima (PNIEC), final version. MASE, Rome, June 2024.back
  6. 9Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici (PNACC). MASE, Rome, December 2023.back
  7. 25Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), National Risk Assessment: Overview of the Potential Major Disasters in Italy. DPC, Rome, 2018.back
  8. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  9. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
  10. 5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024.back
  11. 19K. Schneider, W. van der Werf, M. Cendoya et al., “Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117, pp. 9250–9259, 2020.back
  12. 26A. Bondesan and R. G. Francese, “The climate-driven disaster of the Marmolada Glacier (Italy),” Geomorphology, vol. 431, 108687, 2023.back
  13. 27H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
  14. 28J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
  15. 30P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
  16. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
  17. 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026.back
  18. 7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025.back
  19. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
  20. 21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
  21. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
  22. 6ISTAT (ed.), Indicatori demografici, anno 2024. ISTAT, Rome, March 2025.back
  23. 24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022.back
  24. 39EIOPA (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  25. 15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017.back
  26. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
  27. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2021. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2022.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Lenses and readings. In Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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