- Italy 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
S.1Abstract
Italy enters 2027 having cut its greenhouse-gas emissions to 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.6% below 2023 and 30% below 1990, but with transport emissions still above their 1990 level and the 2030 effort-sharing target out of reach on current policies13. Renewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 20247, and Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 20238. 2024 was the warmest year in the national record21; Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022, more than any other European country4. About 94% of municipalities are exposed to landslides, floods or coastal erosion11; the May 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna caused damage of about €8.5 billion14; and 40% of buildings stand in zones of medium to high seismic hazard, yet only 7.3% of homes are insured against earthquake and flood13. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the five core systems, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.
S.2Key messages
The eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 30% below 1990, but transport keeps rising and the 2030 effort-sharing target is off track.13
Where do emissions stand?Reported
2024 was the warmest year in the Italian record; the national adaptation plan was approved in December 2023.219
Is the climate already changing?Reported
Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in summer 2022 and 12,743 in 2023, mostly among older people.45
Who is most exposed to heat?Reported
About 94% of municipalities face landslide, flood or erosion hazard; 6.8 million people live in medium flood-hazard areas.11
How exposed is the territory?Reported
Only 7.3% of homes are insured against earthquake and flood; the State has acted as insurer of last resort.13
Who carries disaster losses?Reported
Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports to under 5%; renewables met 41.2% of demand in 2024.78
How did energy cope with 2022?Reported
42.4% of the water fed into municipal networks was lost in 2022.12
How secure is water supply?Reported
A drought-to-flood year: a hot, dry summer on the Po followed by autumn cloudbursts on dried soils. SCN-ITA-DFL-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004
Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022, the highest number of any European country, and a further 12,743 in 2023.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Summer 2022 | 18,010 | |
| Summer 2023 | 12,743 |
Heat falls hardest on older people, and Italy has one of the oldest populations in Europe. Heat is therefore as much a question of care, housing and isolation as of meteorology, and it coincides with drought and peak power demand46.
S.4At a glance
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of Italian risk.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a heatwave, a flooded street or a crack after an earthquake.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Very low insurance take-up, a new business insurance mandate and an effort-sharing gap show where finance-readiness evidence will matter.
NEXUS
Synthesis
Italy observes its hazards well, its seismic and volcanic monitoring is among the strongest anywhere, but its territory, buildings and networks carry deep exposure that is mostly uninsured.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A baseline: the state of Italy’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies between them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets the questions the operational series will answer.
What it is not
Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any ministry, region, municipality, operator or company. Competent authorities at national, regional and local level keep every mandate they hold.
What comes next
Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026.back
- 3ISPRA (ed.), Le emissioni di gas serra in Italia: obiettivi di riduzione e scenari emissivi. ISPRA, Rome, 2026.back
- 7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025.back
- 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
- 21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
- 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
- 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
- 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
- 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
- 9Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici (PNACC). MASE, Rome, December 2023.back
- 5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024.back
- 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
- 6ISTAT (ed.), Indicatori demografici, anno 2024. ISTAT, Rome, March 2025.back