R04 · PROCESS · practiceGRF dossier · service level R0
GRFForesight NexusEstablished
Practice

Professional practice

How institutions put foresight Nexus into practice: comparative experience, lessons learned and the conditions under which approaches work.

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Publisher
The Global Risks Forum
Field
Foresight, Risk management and systemic risk
Status
Established
Service level
R0: information and enquiries

Exercise control

Indicator review · Day 4 of 5 · Controlled · observed

  • Injects delivered
    7of 18Active
  • Median response
    39minWatch
  • Observer notes
    29
  • Stand-down
    Day 5plannedNormal
Injects runningGRF · Foresight Nexus

Inject timeline

  1. 09:00INJ-1Scenario opens: Indicator review
  2. 10:30INJ-2Policy owner receives first signal
  3. 12:15INJ-3Escalation: second system affected
  4. 14:00INJ-4Media query and public message
  5. 16:30HOTHot wash, observers first

Player cells

Foresight lead455Responding
Scanning network member648Active
Policy owner626Responding
Futures panel313Active

Foresight Nexus · Exercise controlExercise control, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

Foresight Nexus practice notes compare how institutions put the governance of foresight as well as risk management and systemic risk into practice: approaches across jurisdictions, what worked, what did not and the conditions behind each. Notes are published with their limits so others can adapt them; they are not prescriptions, and GRF does not regulate, finance or certify.

02Canvas

Scoping to review.

Canvas · scoping to reviewDesign, not a record
Professional practice: an exercise from design to lessonsObjectives and a scenario are designed with the owner; injects are scripted; players respond in cells while controllers and observers watch; a hot wash and an after-action report turn observations into owned improvements. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.

03Geography

Hazards and exposure in the Arctic.

For professional practice, in GRF's situational-awareness reading, the map opens on population density, flood water and active fires, framed on the Arctic; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Hazards and exposure, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

For professional practice, in GRF's situational-awareness reading, the map opens on population density, flood water and active fires, framed on the Arctic; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · GDACSSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not official warnings.
  • Live: GDACS (EC JRC / UN OCHA) Events are indicative, not official warnings.
  • Optional layers (35 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies, last day: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

04Boundaries

Practice notes are not prescriptions.

GRF convenes and governs programmes. It does not regulate, finance, procure or certify, and hosting or sponsorship confers no authority over findings.

05Practice notes

What makes foresight change decisions.

  • Foresight connected to a decision with a date has more effect than free-standing reports.
  • Senior sponsorship matters, but so does the involvement of the staff who write plans.
  • Scenarios that are too comfortable get ignored; ones that are too extreme get dismissed.
  • Repeated exercises build futures literacy that single ones do not.
06Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Comparative case studyAnalysis of several cases chosen to compare how context affects an outcome.
Lessons learnedDocumented knowledge from experience, positive or negative, recorded to change future practice.
Peer benchmarkingJudging a fund's performance against similar funds, which encourages similar allocations.
Anticipatory governanceUsing foresight systematically in policy-making and institutions so they can act on emerging change.
07Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

08Questions

Questions and answers.

Can my institution share its experience?
Yes. Write to contact@globalriskforum.com.
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