Lenses and readings

The water baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

10 min read0 figures6 tables37 notesNR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people water risk arrives as a dry tap, a flooded street or a higher food price. The baseline asks that public debate treat water as shared infrastructure for health, food and energy, and that the 2.2 billion without safe water stay at its centre.

WAT-001 · HLT-008 · FOO-006

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading water as the coupling layer of the WEFH+B system. Access remains unfinished, scarcity is seasonal for half of humanity, and the cycle is shifting: drier rivers, faster glacier loss and declining aquifers. Evidence is strongest for access and hydrology, and weakest for groundwater and quality.

WAT-001 · WAT-004 · WAT-005 · SYS-012

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Flood losses are large and often uninsured, water investment falls short of need³⁶, and nature-related disclosure is spreading³². These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

CLI-010 · WAT-002

NEXUS

Synthesis

The water system is well studied and thinly governed at the scale where its risks travel. The 2027 programme should bind basin evidence, test the multi-basin drought pathway, and map groundwater dependence before it becomes a food shock.

SYS-012 · W-01 · W-02

6.2Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Every drought this decade has been an energy event, a food event and a health event at once. Treating water as a utility service understates how it carries risk between systems. The water edition is built on that coupling: each chapter asks where a water shock goes next.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Water is a coupling, not a sector

Groundwater supplies about half of domestic water and a quarter of irrigation, yet it is the least measured part of the system. Declines that accelerate quietly become food and livelihood shocks when wells run dry. Measuring aquifers is the cheapest adaptation available.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Groundwater is the hidden reserve

The 2.2 billion people without safely managed drinking water are also the people least able to absorb a drought or a flood. Closing service gaps is not separate from climate adaptation; it is its foundation.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Access is adaptation

Wetlands store floodwater, filter supply and sustain fisheries. Losing more than a fifth of them since 1970 has removed a capability that would cost far more to build in concrete.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Freshwater nature is infrastructure

6.3GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.4Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 water readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.12027 water readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Water risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five global system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · six proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	Canada and Global issued	national water chapters
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.5Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

International instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
ADOPTED · OPEN FOR SIGNATURE
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Human right to water and sanitation, resolution 64/292²⁶	UN General Assembly	global	ADOPTED 2010	access
SDG 6, water and sanitation for all²⁹	United Nations	global	ADOPTED 2015	2030 targets
UN Watercourses Convention²⁷	United Nations	international watercourses	IN FORCE	transboundary basins
UNECE Water Convention²⁸	UNECE	open to all UN members	IN FORCE	transboundary cooperation
Sendai Framework 2015–2030²⁵	UNDRR	global	ADOPTED 2015	flood and drought risk
Kunming-Montreal Framework³⁰	CBD	global	ADOPTED 2022	freshwater restoration
Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality³⁷	WHO	global	PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE	water quality
TNFD recommendations³²	TNFD	market-led	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	nature disclosure

Changed since 2024

The Global Wetland Outlook 2025 updated wetland loss estimates¹⁸
The UN Water Conference was convened for December 2026⁴³
Nature-related disclosure frameworks spread through markets³²

To watch in 2027

Commitments of the 2026 UN Water Conference⁴³
New accessions to the UNECE Water Convention²⁸
National biodiversity strategies’ freshwater targets³⁰

6.6Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers water assessments, peer-reviewed hydrology and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about the global water system and its couplings?
Sources searched: UN water reports; IPCC and IPBES assessments; peer-reviewed hydrology; loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items W-01 to W-05 in 2027

Table 6.3Peer-reviewed science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Caretta et al.¹²	assessment chapter	2022	supports	water and climate
Lee and Romero (eds.)¹¹	assessment	2023	context	forcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)⁴⁷	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Rodell et al.¹⁹	journal article	2018	supports	storage trends
Jasechko et al.²⁰	journal article	2024	supports	groundwater declines
Hugonnet et al.²¹	journal article	2021	supports	glacier loss
Mekonnen and Hoekstra²²	journal article	2016	supports	severe scarcity
Hoekstra and Mekonnen²³	journal article	2012	context	water footprint
Zscheischler et al.⁴⁰	journal article	2018	framework	compound events

Table 6.4Institutional flagships
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
UN World Water Development Reports²³⁴	UNESCO	2022–24	supports	use, scarcity, groundwater
State of Global Water Resources⁵	WMO	2024	supports	rivers, glaciers
SDG 6 synthesis¹⁰	UN-Water	2023	supports	progress to 2030
Economics of Water⁸	GCEW	2024	context	economic stakes

Table 6.5UN statistics and monitoring
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
JMP 2023¹	WHO · UNICEF	2023	supports	access
WASH burden of disease³⁸	WHO	2023	supports	health
Transboundary cooperation⁹	UNECE · UNESCO	2024	supports	governance
Children’s climate risk³⁹	UNICEF	2023	supports	children in scarcity
Land and water resources¹⁵	FAO	2021	supports	agriculture
SOFI 2025¹⁶	FAO and partners	2025	context	food security

Table 6.6Energy, nature, finance and loss data
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Water–Energy Nexus¹⁴	IEA	2016	supports	energy withdrawals
Energy and AI¹³	IEA	2025	context	data-centre demand
Living Planet Report¹⁷	WWF	2024	supports	freshwater wildlife
Global Wetland Outlook¹⁸	Ramsar	2025	supports	wetland loss
High and Dry³⁵	World Bank	2016	supports	GDP at stake
NatCatSERVICE⁷	Munich Re	2026	supports	flood losses

Where the evidence agrees

Access gaps persist and 2030 targets are off track¹¹⁰
Glacier mass loss is accelerating⁵²¹
Freshwater biodiversity is declining fastest¹⁷

Where it is unsettled

How fast major aquifers will fail at current pumping²⁰
How drought frequency will change in specific basins¹²
How much water data centres will use by 2030¹³

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

36OECD (ed.), Financing a Water Secure Future. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2022.back
32Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (ed.), Recommendations of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures. TNFD, London, 2023.back
26United Nations General Assembly (ed.), The human right to water and sanitation, resolution 64/292. United Nations, New York, 28 July 2010.back
29United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution 70/1. United Nations, New York, 2015.back
27United Nations (ed.), Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses. United Nations, New York, 1997.back
28UNECE (ed.), Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes. UNECE, Helsinki, 1992.back
25UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
30Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
37WHO (ed.), Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, 4th ed. incorporating the first and second addenda. WHO, Geneva, 2022.back
18Ramsar Convention Secretariat (ed.), Global Wetland Outlook 2025. Ramsar Convention Secretariat, Gland, 2025.back
43S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
12R. Caretta, A. Mukherji et al., “Water,” in H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, pp. 551–712. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2022.back
11H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
47IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures. International Sustainability Standards Board, London, 2023.back
19M. Rodell, J. S. Famiglietti, D. N. Wiese et al., “Emerging trends in global freshwater availability,” Nature, vol. 557, pp. 651–659, 2018.back
20S. Jasechko, H. Seybold, D. Perrone et al., “Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally,” Nature, vol. 625, pp. 715–721, 2024.back
21R. Hugonnet, R. McNabb, E. Berthier et al., “Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century,” Nature, vol. 592, pp. 726–731, 2021.back
22M. M. Mekonnen and A. Y. Hoekstra, “Four billion people facing severe water scarcity,” Science Advances, vol. 2, e1500323, 2016.back
23A. Y. Hoekstra and M. M. Mekonnen, “The water footprint of humanity,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 109, pp. 3232–3237, 2012.back
40J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
2UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme (ed.), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2024: Water for Prosperity and Peace. UNESCO, Paris, 2024.back
3UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme (ed.), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2023: Partnerships and Cooperation for Water. UNESCO, Paris, 2023.back
4UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme (ed.), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2022: Groundwater, Making the Invisible Visible. UNESCO, Paris, 2022.back
5WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2023. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 2024.back
10UN-Water (ed.), Blueprint for Acceleration: Sustainable Development Goal 6 Synthesis Report on Water and Sanitation 2023. United Nations, Geneva, 2023.back
8Global Commission on the Economics of Water (ed.), The Economics of Water: Valuing the Hydrological Cycle as a Global Common Good. GCEW, Paris, 2024.back
1WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2022: Special Focus on Gender. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.back
38WHO (ed.), Burden of Disease Attributable to Unsafe Drinking-water, Sanitation and Hygiene: 2019 Update. WHO, Geneva, 2023.back
9UNECE and UNESCO (eds.), Progress on Transboundary Water Cooperation: Global Status of SDG Indicator 6.5.2 and Acceleration Needs, 2024. United Nations, Geneva and Paris, 2024.back
39UNICEF (ed.), The Climate-Changed Child: A Children’s Climate Risk Index Supplement. UNICEF, New York, 2023.back
15FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2021: Systems at Breaking Point. FAO, Rome, 2021.back
16FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
14International Energy Agency (ed.), Water–Energy Nexus. World Energy Outlook 2016 Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2016.back
13International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
17WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.back
35World Bank (ed.), High and Dry: Climate Change, Water, and the Economy. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016.back
7Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Lenses and readings. In Global Water Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the World’s Water System (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report