References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

10 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1France’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer with low river flows
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 40 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.140 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Citepa (ed.), Rapport Secten, Gaz à effet de serre et polluants atmosphériques : bilan des émissions en France de 1990 à 2024, édition 2025. Citepa, Paris, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  3. 3Haut Conseil pour le Climat (ed.), Rapport annuel 2025. HCC, Paris, July 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  4. 4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5Santé publique France (ed.), Heat Waves and Health. Public Health Bulletin: A Review of Summer 2023. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, February 2024. Cited in chapter 1
  6. 6INSEE (ed.), Bilan démographique 2024. INSEE, Paris, January 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
  7. 7RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2024. RTE, Paris, February 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8Météo-France (ed.), Bilan climatique de l’année 2022 en France. Météo-France, Saint-Mandé, January 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6
  9. 9Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Troisième plan national d’adaptation au changement climatique (PNACC-3). MTE, Paris, March 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  10. 10Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Trajectoire de réchauffement de référence pour l’adaptation au changement climatique (TRACC). MTE, Paris, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
  11. 11Gouvernement (ed.), Plan d’action pour une gestion résiliente et concertée de l’eau (Plan Eau). Paris, March 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12SDES (ed.), L’environnement en France : prélèvements et consommations d’eau. Service des données et études statistiques, Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13France Assureurs (ed.), Bilan des catastrophes naturelles et des événements climatiques 2022. France Assureurs, Paris, 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
  14. 14Caisse centrale de réassurance (ed.), Les catastrophes naturelles en France : bilan 1982–2023. CCR, Paris, 2024. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  15. 15Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 82-600 du 13 juillet 1982 relative à l’indemnisation des victimes de catastrophes naturelles. Journal officiel, Paris, 1982. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  16. 16Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 2021-1104 du 22 août 2021 portant lutte contre le dérèglement climatique et renforcement de la résilience face à ses effets. Journal officiel, Paris, 2021. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  17. 17Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 2019-1147 du 8 novembre 2019 relative à l’énergie et au climat. Journal officiel, Paris, 2019. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  18. 18Observatoire national de la biodiversité (ed.), « Évolution des populations d’oiseaux communs spécialistes des milieux agricoles. » ONB–OFB, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19UICN Comité français, OFB and MNHN (eds.), La Liste rouge des espèces menacées en France. Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2022. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  21. 21CGDD (ed.), Retrait-gonflement des argiles : plus de 10 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris, 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
  22. 22CGDD (ed.), Évaluation préliminaire des risques d’inondation : exposition de la population aux inondations par débordement de cours d’eau. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24Agreste (ed.), GraphAgri 2024. Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la Souveraineté alimentaire, Paris, 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  26. 26Gouvernement (ed.), « Cyclone Chido à Mayotte » : communiqués et bilan, December 2024 – January 2025. Paris. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3
  27. 27H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  28. 28J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010.
  30. 30P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. WMO, Geneva, March 2026.
  32. 32S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  33. 33S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  34. 34S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  35. 35S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026, AI and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  36. 36S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  37. 37S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  38. 38European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal L 243, 9 July 2021. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39J.-M. Robine, S. L. K. Cheung, S. Le Roy et al., “Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003,” Comptes Rendus Biologies, vol. 331, pp. 171–178, 2008. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  40. 40Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Stratégie nationale bas-carbone : projet de troisième stratégie (SNBC-3). MTE, Paris, 2024–2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
France Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
FRANR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-NAT-FRA-2026-BL
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for France; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on France, prefilled from this page
{
  "metadata": {
    "resource_type": {
      "id": "dataset"
    },
    "title": "Evidence on France for Nexus Reports",
    "publication_date": "YYYY-MM-DD",
    "creators": [
      {
        "person_or_org": {
          "type": "personal",
          "family_name": "Your family name",
          "given_name": "Your given name",
          "identifiers": [
            {
              "scheme": "orcid",
              "identifier": "0000-0000-0000-0000"
            }
          ]
        },
        "affiliations": [
          {
            "id": "ROR identifier of your organisation"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "description": "What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026.",
    "rights": [
      {
        "id": "cc-by-4.0"
      }
    ],
    "subjects": [
      {
        "subject": "Nexus Reports"
      },
      {
        "subject": "France"
      },
      {
        "subject": "Country Systems Risk & Resilience Report"
      }
    ],
    "related_identifiers": [
      {
        "identifier": "https://globalriskforum.com/nexus-reports/editions/fra/",
        "scheme": "url",
        "relation_type": {
          "id": "issupplementto"
        },
        "resource_type": {
          "id": "publication-report"
        }
      }
    ],
    "version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "custom_fields": {},
  "access": {
    "record": "public",
    "files": "public"
  },
  "files": {
    "enabled": true
  },
  "parent": {
    "communities": {
      "default": "nexusreports"
    }
  }
}

C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. FRA edition Reports France 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; FRA is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on France.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

Global Risks ForumCountry Systems Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

The Global Risks Forum

Convening · leadership · urgency

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Support our work

Who funds us

GRF is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.