France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

The eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. 369 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 32% below 1990, but falling about half as fast as the 2030 target needs.¹³

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. 2022 was the warmest year on record in metropolitan France; the national adaptation plan now prepares for +4 °C by 2100.⁸⁹¹⁰

   Is the climate already changing?Reported

3. People aged 75 and over: about three quarters of the 3,700 heat deaths in summer 2024.⁴

   Who is most exposed to heat?Reported

4. Nuclear output fell to its lowest since 1988 in 2022, when heat and low flows limited cooling.²⁵

   How exposed is electricity to heat and drought?Reported

5. About 17.1 million residents are exposed to river flooding.²²

   How large is flood exposure?Reported

6. About 10.4 million detached houses are exposed to clay shrink-swell subsidence.²¹

   What does drought do to houses?Reported

7. Farmland birds have declined by about 30% since 1989.¹⁸

   How is nature faring?Reported

8. A hot, dry summer in which low river flows constrain nuclear cooling while heat, drought and fire load health, food and insurance. SCN-FRA-HDN-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

Nuclear output fell to 279 TWh in 2022, the lowest since 1988, as stress-corrosion repairs coincided with heat and low river flows that limited cooling; output recovered to about 362 TWh in 2024.

Nuclear provides about two-thirds of French electricity, so a hot, dry summer is an energy event as well as a water and health event. When reactors cut output, France imports at peak European prices and its neighbours lose an exporter⁷²⁵.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Citepa (ed.), Rapport Secten, Gaz à effet de serre et polluants atmosphériques : bilan des émissions en France de 1990 à 2024, édition 2025. Citepa, Paris, 2025.back
2. 3Haut Conseil pour le Climat (ed.), Rapport annuel 2025. HCC, Paris, July 2025.back
3. 40Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Stratégie nationale bas-carbone : projet de troisième stratégie (SNBC-3). MTE, Paris, 2024–2025.back
4. 7RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2024. RTE, Paris, February 2025.back
5. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
6. 8Météo-France (ed.), Bilan climatique de l’année 2022 en France. Météo-France, Saint-Mandé, January 2023.back
7. 4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024.back
8. 21CGDD (ed.), Retrait-gonflement des argiles : plus de 10 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris, 2021.back
9. 22CGDD (ed.), Évaluation préliminaire des risques d’inondation : exposition de la population aux inondations par débordement de cours d’eau. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris.back
10. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
11. 18Observatoire national de la biodiversité (ed.), « Évolution des populations d’oiseaux communs spécialistes des milieux agricoles. » ONB–OFB, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
12. 9Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Troisième plan national d’adaptation au changement climatique (PNACC-3). MTE, Paris, March 2025.back
13. 10Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Trajectoire de réchauffement de référence pour l’adaptation au changement climatique (TRACC). MTE, Paris, 2024.back
14. 6INSEE (ed.), Bilan démographique 2024. INSEE, Paris, January 2025.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is Canada’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The France matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → WAT → ENE

   Heat and low flows force nuclear output cuts.

   Reported summer 2022²⁵

2. 02

   CLI → HLT

   Heatwaves raise deaths among older people.

   Reported summers 2023–2024⁴⁵

3. 03

   CLI → WAT → FIN

   Drought shrinks clay soils, cracks houses and raises CatNat claims.

   Reported 2022¹³²¹

4. 04

   WAT → FOO

   Drought and irrigation limits cut harvests.

   Inferred 2022

5. 05

   CLI → BIO

   Wildfire spreads to regions once spared.

   Reported 2022 fires²⁰

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8Météo-France (ed.), Bilan climatique de l’année 2022 en France. Météo-France, Saint-Mandé, January 2023.back
2. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2022. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2023.back
3. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
4. 9Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Troisième plan national d’adaptation au changement climatique (PNACC-3). MTE, Paris, March 2025.back
5. 10Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Trajectoire de réchauffement de référence pour l’adaptation au changement climatique (TRACC). MTE, Paris, 2024.back
6. 39J.-M. Robine, S. L. K. Cheung, S. Le Roy et al., “Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003,” Comptes Rendus Biologies, vol. 331, pp. 171–178, 2008.back
7. 4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024.back
8. 12SDES (ed.), L’environnement en France : prélèvements et consommations d’eau. Service des données et études statistiques, Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9. 11Gouvernement (ed.), Plan d’action pour une gestion résiliente et concertée de l’eau (Plan Eau). Paris, March 2023.back
10. 22CGDD (ed.), Évaluation préliminaire des risques d’inondation : exposition de la population aux inondations par débordement de cours d’eau. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris.back
11. 1Citepa (ed.), Rapport Secten, Gaz à effet de serre et polluants atmosphériques : bilan des émissions en France de 1990 à 2024, édition 2025. Citepa, Paris, 2025.back
12. 7RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2024. RTE, Paris, February 2025.back
13. 3Haut Conseil pour le Climat (ed.), Rapport annuel 2025. HCC, Paris, July 2025.back
14. 15Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 82-600 du 13 juillet 1982 relative à l’indemnisation des victimes de catastrophes naturelles. Journal officiel, Paris, 1982.back
15. 21CGDD (ed.), Retrait-gonflement des argiles : plus de 10 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris, 2021.back
16. 13France Assureurs (ed.), Bilan des catastrophes naturelles et des événements climatiques 2022. France Assureurs, Paris, 2023.back
17. 26Gouvernement (ed.), « Cyclone Chido à Mayotte » : communiqués et bilan, December 2024 – January 2025. Paris.back
18. 5Santé publique France (ed.), Heat Waves and Health. Public Health Bulletin: A Review of Summer 2023. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, February 2024.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

Nuclear output fell to 279 TWh in 2022, the lowest since 1988, as stress-corrosion repairs coincided with heat and low river flows that limited cooling; output recovered to about 362 TWh in 2024.

Implication

Nuclear provides about two-thirds of French electricity, so a hot, dry summer is an energy event as well as a water and health event. When reactors cut output, France imports at peak European prices and its neighbours lose an exporter⁷²⁵.

What would move it

River temperatures and flows on the Rhône, Loire and Garonne each summer, the scheduling of reactor maintenance, and summer import volumes would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Territorial emissions were 369 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 1.8% below 2023 and 32% below 1990.¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   Meeting the 2030 target of 270 Mt requires cuts of about 15 Mt a year; the 2024 cut was about 7 Mt.³⁴⁰

3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

   2022 was the warmest year on record in metropolitan France.⁸

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   Nuclear output fell to 279 TWh in 2022, the lowest since 1988, as corrosion repairs and heat-limited cooling coincided.²⁵

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

   Electricity was about 95% low-carbon in 2024; power-sector emissions fell 26% as nuclear and hydro output recovered.¹⁷

2.4Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-006

   Heat caused more than 3,700 deaths in summer 2024; about three quarters were among people aged 75 and over.⁴

2.5Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

   France produces about 18% of the EU’s agricultural output, the largest share of any member state.²³

2.6Water

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

   Agriculture accounts for about 58% of freshwater consumed; the Plan Eau targets a 10% cut in withdrawals by 2030.¹¹¹²

2.7Finance

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

   About 10.4 million detached houses are exposed to clay shrink-swell subsidence, a leading cost of the CatNat regime.¹⁴²¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

   Natural-event insurance claims reached about €10 billion in 2022, the highest since 1999.¹³

2.8Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

   Farmland bird populations have declined by about 30% since 1989.¹⁸

2.9Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which low river flows constrain nuclear cooling while heat, drought, wildfire and clay subsidence load health, food and insurance. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
2. 7RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2024. RTE, Paris, February 2025.back
3. 1Citepa (ed.), Rapport Secten, Gaz à effet de serre et polluants atmosphériques : bilan des émissions en France de 1990 à 2024, édition 2025. Citepa, Paris, 2025.back
4. 3Haut Conseil pour le Climat (ed.), Rapport annuel 2025. HCC, Paris, July 2025.back
5. 40Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Stratégie nationale bas-carbone : projet de troisième stratégie (SNBC-3). MTE, Paris, 2024–2025.back
6. 8Météo-France (ed.), Bilan climatique de l’année 2022 en France. Météo-France, Saint-Mandé, January 2023.back
7. 4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024.back
8. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
9. 11Gouvernement (ed.), Plan d’action pour une gestion résiliente et concertée de l’eau (Plan Eau). Paris, March 2023.back
10. 12SDES (ed.), L’environnement en France : prélèvements et consommations d’eau. Service des données et études statistiques, Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
11. 14Caisse centrale de réassurance (ed.), Les catastrophes naturelles en France : bilan 1982–2023. CCR, Paris, 2024.back
12. 21CGDD (ed.), Retrait-gonflement des argiles : plus de 10 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris, 2021.back
13. 13France Assureurs (ed.), Bilan des catastrophes naturelles et des événements climatiques 2022. France Assureurs, Paris, 2023.back
14. 18Observatoire national de la biodiversité (ed.), « Évolution des populations d’oiseaux communs spécialistes des milieux agricoles. » ONB–OFB, retrieved 2026-09-30.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12SDES (ed.), L’environnement en France : prélèvements et consommations d’eau. Service des données et études statistiques, Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
2. 7RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2024. RTE, Paris, February 2025.back
3. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
4. 4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024.back
5. 18Observatoire national de la biodiversité (ed.), « Évolution des populations d’oiseaux communs spécialistes des milieux agricoles. » ONB–OFB, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
6. 13France Assureurs (ed.), Bilan des catastrophes naturelles et des événements climatiques 2022. France Assureurs, Paris, 2023.back
7. 8Météo-France (ed.), Bilan climatique de l’année 2022 en France. Météo-France, Saint-Mandé, January 2023.back
8. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
9. 14Caisse centrale de réassurance (ed.), Les catastrophes naturelles en France : bilan 1982–2023. CCR, Paris, 2024.back
10. 15Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 82-600 du 13 juillet 1982 relative à l’indemnisation des victimes de catastrophes naturelles. Journal officiel, Paris, 1982.back
11. 26Gouvernement (ed.), « Cyclone Chido à Mayotte » : communiqués et bilan, December 2024 – January 2025. Paris.back
12. 9Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Troisième plan national d’adaptation au changement climatique (PNACC-3). MTE, Paris, March 2025.back
13. 16Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 2021-1104 du 22 août 2021 portant lutte contre le dérèglement climatique et renforcement de la résilience face à ses effets. Journal officiel, Paris, 2021.back
14. 17Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 2019-1147 du 8 novembre 2019 relative à l’énergie et au climat. Journal officiel, Paris, 2019.back
15. 3Haut Conseil pour le Climat (ed.), Rapport annuel 2025. HCC, Paris, July 2025.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-FRA-CLI-001

   Extreme heat

   Driver

   heatwaves above 40 °C; tropical nights

   Exposure

   people aged 75 and over; dense cities

   Vulnerability

   isolation; housing without cooling

   Capacity

   heat-health alerts; national heatwave plan

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE cooling demand

   Horizon

   seasonal

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-FRA-WAT-002

   Drought and low river flows

   Driver

   dry winters; hot summers

   Exposure

   nuclear cooling, irrigation, drinking water

   Vulnerability

   three uses sharing the same low flows

   Capacity

   water restrictions; Plan Eau¹¹

   Cascade

   WAT → ENE, FOO, HLT

   Horizon

   seasonal · 5 years

3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-FRA-FIN-003

   Clay shrink-swell subsidence

   Driver

   repeated droughts drying clay soils

   Exposure

   10.4 million detached houses²¹

   Vulnerability

   shallow foundations

   Capacity

   CatNat cover¹⁵; building standards

   Cascade

   CLI → WAT → FIN → households

   Horizon

   1–10 years

4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-FRA-CLI-004

   River and Mediterranean flash flooding

   Driver

   intense autumn storms; river floods

   Exposure

   17.1 million residents²²

   Vulnerability

   building in flood-prone areas

   Capacity

   flood forecasting; risk-prevention plans

   Cascade

   CLI → INF, HLT, FIN

   Horizon

   annual

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 11Gouvernement (ed.), Plan d’action pour une gestion résiliente et concertée de l’eau (Plan Eau). Paris, March 2023.back
2. 21CGDD (ed.), Retrait-gonflement des argiles : plus de 10 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris, 2021.back
3. 15Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 82-600 du 13 juillet 1982 relative à l’indemnisation des victimes de catastrophes naturelles. Journal officiel, Paris, 1982.back
4. 22CGDD (ed.), Évaluation préliminaire des risques d’inondation : exposition de la population aux inondations par débordement de cours d’eau. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris.back
5. 3Haut Conseil pour le Climat (ed.), Rapport annuel 2025. HCC, Paris, July 2025.back
6. 9Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Troisième plan national d’adaptation au changement climatique (PNACC-3). MTE, Paris, March 2025.back
7. 10Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Trajectoire de réchauffement de référence pour l’adaptation au changement climatique (TRACC). MTE, Paris, 2024.back
8. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
9. 14Caisse centrale de réassurance (ed.), Les catastrophes naturelles en France : bilan 1982–2023. CCR, Paris, 2024.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-FRA-HDN-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a dry winter and spring; repeated heatwaves above 40 °C in July and August; low flows on the Rhône, Loire and Garonne

Analogues

summers 2003³⁹, 2019 and 2022⁸²⁵

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → WAT

   low rainfall and heat cut river flows

   2022

2. 2

   WAT → ENE

   reactors cut output to respect discharge-temperature limits

   2022²⁵

3. 3

   CLI → HLT

   heat deaths among older people rise

   2003 · 2024⁴

4. 4

   WAT → FOO

   irrigation restrictions and heat cut harvests

   2022

5. 5

   CLI → BIO

   wildfires in the south-west and beyond

   2022²⁰

6. 6

   WAT → FIN

   clay subsidence claims rise under CatNat

   2022¹³

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-FRA-HDN-01 would travel through France’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: France 2026, scenario SCN-FRA-HDN-01 (2026); France 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 39J.-M. Robine, S. L. K. Cheung, S. Le Roy et al., “Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003,” Comptes Rendus Biologies, vol. 331, pp. 171–178, 2008.back
2. 8Météo-France (ed.), Bilan climatique de l’année 2022 en France. Météo-France, Saint-Mandé, January 2023.back
3. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
4. 4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024.back
5. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2022. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2023.back
6. 13France Assureurs (ed.), Bilan des catastrophes naturelles et des événements climatiques 2022. France Assureurs, Paris, 2023.back

6.1Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.2Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.3GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.4Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.5Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED
• IN CONSULTATION

6.6Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers statutory assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in Q1 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about France’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; statutory plans and assessments; official statistics; agency and insurance data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 14Caisse centrale de réassurance (ed.), Les catastrophes naturelles en France : bilan 1982–2023. CCR, Paris, 2024.back
2. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
3. 3Haut Conseil pour le Climat (ed.), Rapport annuel 2025. HCC, Paris, July 2025.back
4. 38European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal L 243, 9 July 2021.back
5. 17Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 2019-1147 du 8 novembre 2019 relative à l’énergie et au climat. Journal officiel, Paris, 2019.back
6. 16Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 2021-1104 du 22 août 2021 portant lutte contre le dérèglement climatique et renforcement de la résilience face à ses effets. Journal officiel, Paris, 2021.back
7. 15Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 82-600 du 13 juillet 1982 relative à l’indemnisation des victimes de catastrophes naturelles. Journal officiel, Paris, 1982.back
8. 9Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Troisième plan national d’adaptation au changement climatique (PNACC-3). MTE, Paris, March 2025.back
9. 10Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Trajectoire de réchauffement de référence pour l’adaptation au changement climatique (TRACC). MTE, Paris, 2024.back
10. 11Gouvernement (ed.), Plan d’action pour une gestion résiliente et concertée de l’eau (Plan Eau). Paris, March 2023.back
11. 40Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Stratégie nationale bas-carbone : projet de troisième stratégie (SNBC-3). MTE, Paris, 2024–2025.back
12. 1Citepa (ed.), Rapport Secten, Gaz à effet de serre et polluants atmosphériques : bilan des émissions en France de 1990 à 2024, édition 2025. Citepa, Paris, 2025.back
13. 39J.-M. Robine, S. L. K. Cheung, S. Le Roy et al., “Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003,” Comptes Rendus Biologies, vol. 331, pp. 171–178, 2008.back
14. 27H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
15. 28J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
16. 30P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
17. 8Météo-France (ed.), Bilan climatique de l’année 2022 en France. Météo-France, Saint-Mandé, January 2023.back
18. 4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024.back
19. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2022. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2023.back
20. 7RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2024. RTE, Paris, February 2025.back
21. 12SDES (ed.), L’environnement en France : prélèvements et consommations d’eau. Service des données et études statistiques, Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
22. 6INSEE (ed.), Bilan démographique 2024. INSEE, Paris, January 2025.back
23. 21CGDD (ed.), Retrait-gonflement des argiles : plus de 10 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris, 2021.back
24. 22CGDD (ed.), Évaluation préliminaire des risques d’inondation : exposition de la population aux inondations par débordement de cours d’eau. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris.back
25. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
26. 24Agreste (ed.), GraphAgri 2024. Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la Souveraineté alimentaire, Paris, 2024.back
27. 13France Assureurs (ed.), Bilan des catastrophes naturelles et des événements climatiques 2022. France Assureurs, Paris, 2023.back
28. 18Observatoire national de la biodiversité (ed.), « Évolution des populations d’oiseaux communs spécialistes des milieux agricoles. » ONB–OFB, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
29. 19UICN Comité français, OFB and MNHN (eds.), La Liste rouge des espèces menacées en France. Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
30. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a hot, dry summer with low river flows constrain nuclear and hydro output while heat and drought load health services and harvests?

   INI-FRA-HDN-01 · heat–drought–nuclear summer; first output: dependency graph for the Rhône, Loire and Garonne basins.

2. A-02

   How sustainable is the CatNat regime as drought subsidence, floods and hail claims grow?

   INI-FRA-FIN-02 · CatNat exposure; first output: peril-by-region claims table, 2015–2025.

3. A-03

   How should water be shared between irrigation, cooling and drinking water in dry summers?

   INI-FRA-WAT-03 · basin allocation; first output: allocation note for five basins.

4. A-04

   What heat surge capacity exists for people aged 75 and over, at home and in care?

   INI-FRA-HLT-04 · heat surge readiness; first output: surge baseline for five regions.

5. A-05

   How far north and west is wildfire risk spreading, and which communities are newly exposed?

   INI-FRA-CLI-05 · wildfire expansion; first output: exposure map by department.

6. A-06

   How exposed are the overseas territories to cyclones, water shortage and supply disruption?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note after Cyclone Chido.

7. A-07

   How are farmland habitats and pollination changing, and what does that mean for yields?

   With GS-11 Biodiversity; first output: indicator note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

France is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027, across metropolitan France and the overseas territories. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   One National Agenda

   bounded national questions for the year

   DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

2. 02

   National Desk

   coordination, records, routing and continuity

   DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

3. 03

   National Model

   the country as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

4. 04

   National Portfolio

   risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

   7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

5. 05

   Foundry

   continuous computational environment

   PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-FRA-2027-Q1

6. 06

   Reports

   quarterly and annual publication

   BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

7. 07

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   after-action, correction and renewal

   OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-FRA-2027-01 · hot, dry summer with low river flows

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
2. 13France Assureurs (ed.), Bilan des catastrophes naturelles et des événements climatiques 2022. France Assureurs, Paris, 2023.back
3. 21CGDD (ed.), Retrait-gonflement des argiles : plus de 10 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris, 2021.back
4. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2022. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2023.back

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

France’s water is plentiful in winter and contested in summer, when irrigation, reactor cooling and drinking water draw on the same low flows.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food
• GS-05 Finance

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

French electricity is about 95% low-carbon, led by nuclear power cooled by rivers and the sea. Its exposure is to heat, drought and maintenance cycles more than to fuel.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food
• GS-05 Finance

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

France is the EU’s largest agricultural producer. Hot, dry years cut harvests, and irrigation competes with other uses for summer water.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food
• GS-05 Finance

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Heat is France’s deadliest climate hazard. The 2003 heatwave remains the reference case, and older people carry most of the burden.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food
• GS-05 Finance

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

France holds some of Europe’s richest biodiversity, much of it overseas. Farmland species are declining, and wildfire is reaching regions once spared.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food
• GS-05 Finance

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12SDES (ed.), L’environnement en France : prélèvements et consommations d’eau. Service des données et études statistiques, Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
2. 11Gouvernement (ed.), Plan d’action pour une gestion résiliente et concertée de l’eau (Plan Eau). Paris, March 2023.back
3. 22CGDD (ed.), Évaluation préliminaire des risques d’inondation : exposition de la population aux inondations par débordement de cours d’eau. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris.back
4. 7RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2024. RTE, Paris, February 2025.back
5. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
6. 1Citepa (ed.), Rapport Secten, Gaz à effet de serre et polluants atmosphériques : bilan des émissions en France de 1990 à 2024, édition 2025. Citepa, Paris, 2025.back
7. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
8. 18Observatoire national de la biodiversité (ed.), « Évolution des populations d’oiseaux communs spécialistes des milieux agricoles. » ONB–OFB, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9. 24Agreste (ed.), GraphAgri 2024. Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la Souveraineté alimentaire, Paris, 2024.back
10. 4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024.back
11. 39J.-M. Robine, S. L. K. Cheung, S. Le Roy et al., “Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003,” Comptes Rendus Biologies, vol. 331, pp. 171–178, 2008.back
12. 19UICN Comité français, OFB and MNHN (eds.), La Liste rouge des espèces menacées en France. Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
13. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2022. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2023.back

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID

MDL-FRA-NATIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent France as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

national scale; not for regional, plant or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-FRA-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

40 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-FRA-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• Heat and health bulletins⁴⁵, attributable-death method
• CatNat review¹⁴, claims series
• Clay exposure assessment²¹, exposure method
• Water statistics¹², consumption estimates

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at Global Risks Forum (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition, territorial greenhouse-gas emissions

Construct

annual greenhouse-gas emissions within French territory, excluding land-use sinks

Unit

Mt CO₂e

Scope

Secten perimeter used for national targets

Source

Citepa Secten 2025¹

Revision

back-revised each edition; latest year provisional

Known limits

excludes emissions embodied in imports

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Citepa (ed.), Rapport Secten, Gaz à effet de serre et polluants atmosphériques : bilan des émissions en France de 1990 à 2024, édition 2025. Citepa, Paris, 2025.back
2. 7RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2024. RTE, Paris, February 2025.back
3. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
4. 4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024.back
5. 5Santé publique France (ed.), Heat Waves and Health. Public Health Bulletin: A Review of Summer 2023. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, February 2024.back
6. 14Caisse centrale de réassurance (ed.), Les catastrophes naturelles en France : bilan 1982–2023. CCR, Paris, 2024.back
7. 21CGDD (ed.), Retrait-gonflement des argiles : plus de 10 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris, 2021.back
8. 12SDES (ed.), L’environnement en France : prélèvements et consommations d’eau. Service des données et études statistiques, Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD

B.3Regional reading, metropolitan regions and overseas territories

Map plates for each region and territory follow in Q2 2027. This page gives the regional reading in table form, and ranks no region.

B.4Atlas card, the Rhône valley

• river basin
• nuclear cooling
• irrigation
• metropolitan area

Systems in view

water, energy, food, health

Defining events

the 2003 heatwave³⁹; low flows and output cuts in summer 2022²⁵

Couplings

WAT → ENE reactor cooling; WAT → FOO irrigation; CLI → HLT heat in Lyon

Capability evidence

heatwave vigilance and drought restrictions used in real events

Gaps

summer flow allocation between uses; heat surge capacity

Agenda items

A-01 · A-03 · A-04

B.5France system card

The card through which France appears in the Europe regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

high-income republic with metropolitan and overseas territories

Population

68.6 million (1 January 2025)⁶

Emissions

32% below 1990 (2024)¹

Electricity

about 95% low-carbon (2024)⁷

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-FRA-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Citepa (ed.), Rapport Secten, Gaz à effet de serre et polluants atmosphériques : bilan des émissions en France de 1990 à 2024, édition 2025. Citepa, Paris, 2025.back
2. 40Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Stratégie nationale bas-carbone : projet de troisième stratégie (SNBC-3). MTE, Paris, 2024–2025.back
3. 7RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2024. RTE, Paris, February 2025.back
4. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
5. 8Météo-France (ed.), Bilan climatique de l’année 2022 en France. Météo-France, Saint-Mandé, January 2023.back
6. 4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024.back
7. 6INSEE (ed.), Bilan démographique 2024. INSEE, Paris, January 2025.back
8. 12SDES (ed.), L’environnement en France : prélèvements et consommations d’eau. Service des données et études statistiques, Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9. 11Gouvernement (ed.), Plan d’action pour une gestion résiliente et concertée de l’eau (Plan Eau). Paris, March 2023.back
10. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
11. 21CGDD (ed.), Retrait-gonflement des argiles : plus de 10 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris, 2021.back
12. 22CGDD (ed.), Évaluation préliminaire des risques d’inondation : exposition de la population aux inondations par débordement de cours d’eau. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris.back
13. 13France Assureurs (ed.), Bilan des catastrophes naturelles et des événements climatiques 2022. France Assureurs, Paris, 2023.back
14. 18Observatoire national de la biodiversité (ed.), « Évolution des populations d’oiseaux communs spécialistes des milieux agricoles. » ONB–OFB, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
15. 3Haut Conseil pour le Climat (ed.), Rapport annuel 2025. HCC, Paris, July 2025.back
16. 5Santé publique France (ed.), Heat Waves and Health. Public Health Bulletin: A Review of Summer 2023. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, February 2024.back
17. 14Caisse centrale de réassurance (ed.), Les catastrophes naturelles en France : bilan 1982–2023. CCR, Paris, 2024.back
18. 9Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Troisième plan national d’adaptation au changement climatique (PNACC-3). MTE, Paris, March 2025.back
19. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2022. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2023.back
20. 26Gouvernement (ed.), « Cyclone Chido à Mayotte » : communiqués et bilan, December 2024 – January 2025. Paris.back
21. 39J.-M. Robine, S. L. K. Cheung, S. Le Roy et al., “Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003,” Comptes Rendus Biologies, vol. 331, pp. 171–178, 2008.back

C.140 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Citepa (ed.), Rapport Secten, Gaz à effet de serre et polluants atmosphériques : bilan des émissions en France de 1990 à 2024, édition 2025. Citepa, Paris, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in chapter 6
3. 3Haut Conseil pour le Climat (ed.), Rapport annuel 2025. HCC, Paris, July 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
4. 4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5Santé publique France (ed.), Heat Waves and Health. Public Health Bulletin: A Review of Summer 2023. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, February 2024. Cited in chapter 1
6. 6INSEE (ed.), Bilan démographique 2024. INSEE, Paris, January 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
7. 7RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2024. RTE, Paris, February 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8Météo-France (ed.), Bilan climatique de l’année 2022 en France. Météo-France, Saint-Mandé, January 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6
9. 9Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Troisième plan national d’adaptation au changement climatique (PNACC-3). MTE, Paris, March 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
10. 10Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Trajectoire de réchauffement de référence pour l’adaptation au changement climatique (TRACC). MTE, Paris, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
11. 11Gouvernement (ed.), Plan d’action pour une gestion résiliente et concertée de l’eau (Plan Eau). Paris, March 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12SDES (ed.), L’environnement en France : prélèvements et consommations d’eau. Service des données et études statistiques, Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13France Assureurs (ed.), Bilan des catastrophes naturelles et des événements climatiques 2022. France Assureurs, Paris, 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
14. 14Caisse centrale de réassurance (ed.), Les catastrophes naturelles en France : bilan 1982–2023. CCR, Paris, 2024. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
15. 15Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 82-600 du 13 juillet 1982 relative à l’indemnisation des victimes de catastrophes naturelles. Journal officiel, Paris, 1982. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
16. 16Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 2021-1104 du 22 août 2021 portant lutte contre le dérèglement climatique et renforcement de la résilience face à ses effets. Journal officiel, Paris, 2021. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
17. 17Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 2019-1147 du 8 novembre 2019 relative à l’énergie et au climat. Journal officiel, Paris, 2019. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
18. 18Observatoire national de la biodiversité (ed.), « Évolution des populations d’oiseaux communs spécialistes des milieux agricoles. » ONB–OFB, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19UICN Comité français, OFB and MNHN (eds.), La Liste rouge des espèces menacées en France. Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2022. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
21. 21CGDD (ed.), Retrait-gonflement des argiles : plus de 10 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris, 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
22. 22CGDD (ed.), Évaluation préliminaire des risques d’inondation : exposition de la population aux inondations par débordement de cours d’eau. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
23. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
24. 24Agreste (ed.), GraphAgri 2024. Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la Souveraineté alimentaire, Paris, 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
25. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
26. 26Gouvernement (ed.), « Cyclone Chido à Mayotte » : communiqués et bilan, December 2024 – January 2025. Paris. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3
27. 27H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
28. 28J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010.
30. 30P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
31. 31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. WMO, Geneva, March 2026.
32. 32S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
33. 33S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
34. 34S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
35. 35S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026, AI and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
36. 36S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
37. 37S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
38. 38European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal L 243, 9 July 2021. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39J.-M. Robine, S. L. K. Cheung, S. Le Roy et al., “Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003,” Comptes Rendus Biologies, vol. 331, pp. 171–178, 2008. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
40. 40Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Stratégie nationale bas-carbone : projet de troisième stratégie (SNBC-3). MTE, Paris, 2024–2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6

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