Methods and critical debate
The methods Foresight Nexus relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.
- Publisher
- The Global Risks Forum
- Field
- Foresight, Risk management and systemic risk
- Status
- Established
- Service level
- R0: information and enquiries
Evidence register
Foresight · Methods and critical debate
Indicators
unit · cadence · label
| Signals logged | signals | weekly | OFFICIAL | SP-7192 |
| Clusters emerging | clusters | quarterly | DERIVED | SP-4671 |
| Scenarios in use | scenarios | annual | OFFICIAL | SP-9239 |
| Policies wind-tunnelled | policies | annual | OFFICIAL | SP-0789 |
| Indicators monitored | indicators | quarterly | OFFICIAL | SP-6868 |
Source passport
- Source
- Signals library
- Licence
- open · attribution
- Steward
- Futures panel
- Coverage
- 92 pct of places
- Known limits
- sparse in uplands
Coverage by place
Foresight Nexus · Evidence registerEvidence register, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
The short answer.
The Foresight Nexus methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them scenario design and stress testing, forecasting and time-series analysis, and complex systems and agent-based modelling, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.
Draft to published version.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
Hazards and exposure in the Arctic.
For methods and critical debate, in GRF's situational-awareness reading, the map opens on population density, true-colour imagery and flood water, framed on the Arctic; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure, for this page
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Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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For methods and critical debate, in GRF's situational-awareness reading, the map opens on population density, true-colour imagery and flood water, framed on the Arctic; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · GDACSSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not official warnings.
- Live: GDACS (EC JRC / UN OCHA) Events are indicative, not official warnings.
- Optional layers (35 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Active fires and thermal anomalies, last day: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
The methods in use.
- Scenario design and stress testingExploratory scenario development · Policy wind-tunnellingApplied here
- Forecasting and time-series analysisAggregated judgemental forecasting · Probabilistic population projectionsApplied here
- Complex systems and agent-based modellingSystems mapping of drivers · Agent-based exploration of social changeApplied here
- Decision analysis under uncertaintyRobust decision making · Dynamic adaptive policy pathways · Structured expert elicitationApplied here
The foresight toolkit with its proper uses.
| Method | Output | Platform page |
|---|---|---|
| Scenario planning and stress testing | Plans tested against several futures | Scenario stress |
| Forecasting and prediction aggregation | Probabilities for well-defined questions | Forecasting |
| Robust decision making | Strategies that perform acceptably across futures | Decision analysis |
| Complex systems modelling | Behaviour of interacting parts over time | Complex systems |
How uncertainty is reported.
- 01
State assumptions
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
- 02
Quantify where possible
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
- 03
Validate and compare
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
- 04
Publish limits
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Sensitivity analysis | Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them. |
| Model validation | Independent testing that a model performs as intended and is fit for a stated use. |
| Scenario design and stress testing | Scenario design and stress testing construct plausible, severe future conditions to examine how systems and institutions would perform. |
Where this page's references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
Are the methods open?
Around Foresight Nexus.
Bring your expertise to this field.
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