Methods and critical debate
The methods Climate and Nature Governance relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.
- Publisher
- The Global Risks Forum
- Field
- Climate and hazards, Biodiversity and nature, Water, Food and agriculture
- 01Draftsources cited, labels attached
- 02Evidence checkevery value traced
- 03Independent reviewconflicts declared
- 04Editionpublished with its limits
- 05Correctiona new version, never a silent edit
The short answer.
The Climate and Nature Governance methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them climate and atmospheric science, ecology and biodiversity science, and policy, institutional and decision science, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.
Draft to published version.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
Climate signals in the Andes.
For methods and critical debate, in GRF's situational-awareness reading, the map opens on land cover, population density and true-colour imagery with vegetation disturbance alerts from NASA GIBS, framed on the Andes; 3 further NASA layers wait in the list.
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Layers 3
Climate signals, for this page
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Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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For methods and critical debate, in GRF's situational-awareness reading, the map opens on land cover, population density and true-colour imagery with vegetation disturbance alerts from NASA GIBS, framed on the Andes; 3 further NASA layers wait in the list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · GDACS · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not official warnings.
- Live: GDACS (EC JRC / UN OCHA) Events are indicative, not official warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Optional layers (23 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- Enhanced vegetation index, rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra EVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Gross primary production, 8-day total: MODIS Aqua GPP (MYD17), NASA LP DAAC · 30 Sep 2026
The methods in use.
- Climate and atmospheric scienceScenarios for adaptation plans · Attribution in governance debatesApplied here
- Ecology and biodiversity scienceCumulative effects in assessment · Protected-area representativeness · Restoration monitoringApplied here
- Policy, institutional and decision scienceMandate and decision-rights mapping · Process tracing of commitmentsApplied here
- Hydrology and water scienceAllocation under variable flow · Upstream project effects · Shared monitoring designApplied here
- Agricultural, soil and food scienceIrrigation and crop choice · Drought impact on yields · Smallholder adaptation optionsApplied here
Methods behind climate and nature governance.
| Method | Page |
|---|---|
| Climate projections and attribution | Climate science |
| Ecosystem assessment | Ecology |
| Water balance and basin modelling | Hydrology |
| Institutional analysis | Policy science |
How uncertainty is reported.
- 01
State assumptions
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
- 02
Quantify where possible
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
- 03
Validate and compare
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
- 04
Publish limits
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Sensitivity analysis | Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them. |
| Model validation | Independent testing that a model performs as intended and is fit for a stated use. |
| Climate and atmospheric science | Climate science studies the physical processes that govern the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere and land surface over seasons to centuries. |
Where this page's references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
Are the methods open?
Around Climate and Nature Governance.
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