Japan Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Japan baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. 1,071 Mt CO₂e in FY2023, 23.3% below FY2013, or 27.1% net of removals.¹

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. A Nankai Trough megaquake could, in the worst case, cause about 298,000 deaths and ¥292 trillion in damage.⁹

   How exposed is Japan to great earthquakes?Reported

3. Clean power passed 30%, but almost all fossil fuel is imported.²⁵

   How secure is energy supply?Reported

4. Japan grows 38% of its food on a calorie basis.¹⁶

   How secure is food?Reported

5. About 97,600 heatstroke ambulance transports in summer 2024.¹²

   Is heat now a health hazard?Reported

6. Remote, ageing regions lose water, roads and care at once after a large earthquake.¹¹

   What did Noto reveal?Reported

7. About a third of households hold earthquake cover; public assets are largely uninsured.²²

   Who carries the losses?Reported

8. An earthquake in an ageing region cutting water, power, roads and care together. SCN-JPN-EQL-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-SEI-004

The 2025 revision of the Nankai Trough damage estimate gives a worst case of about 298,000 deaths and ¥292 trillion in damage, with tsunami the leading cause of death.

Such an event would strike the Pacific industrial belt, ports, refineries and power plants at once, and the national economy and global supply chains through them. Early evacuation and seismic retrofitting are estimated to cut deaths sharply, which makes preparedness a high-value capability⁸⁹.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Ministry of the Environment and National Institute for Environmental Studies (eds.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, April 2025.back
2. 2Ministry of the Environment (ed.), Progress of the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, 2025.back
3. 3Government of Japan (ed.), Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (targets for FY2035 and FY2040). Submission to the UNFCCC, February 2025.back
4. 16Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Food self-sufficiency ratio, FY2023. MAFF, Tokyo, August 2024.back
5. 10Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (ed.), Long-term evaluation of earthquakes along the Nankai Trough (revised). MEXT, Tokyo, 2025.back
6. 7Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), “Characteristics of the climate in Japan in 2024.” JMA, Tokyo, January 2025.back
7. 12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024.back
8. 11Cabinet Office (ed.), “Damage situation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake.” Cabinet Office, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9. 9Central Disaster Management Council, Working Group on Nankai Trough Megaquake Countermeasures (ed.), Revised damage estimates for a Nankai Trough megaquake. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, March 2025.back
10. 5Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ed.), Annual Report on Energy (Energy White Paper) 2025. METI, Tokyo, 2025.back
11. 22General Insurance Rating Organization of Japan (ed.), Earthquake insurance statistics, 2023. GIROJ, Tokyo, 2024.back
12. 8Cabinet Office (ed.), White Paper on Disaster Management 2025. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, 2025.back
13. 15Statistics Bureau of Japan (ed.), Population Estimates as of 1 October 2024. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Tokyo, 2025.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is Japan’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five system chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Japan matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   SEI → WAT → HLT

   An earthquake breaks pipes; care homes and hospitals lose water for weeks.

   Reported Noto 2024¹¹

2. 02

   SEI → ENE → all

   A great earthquake shuts coastal plants and refineries.

   Reported Tōhoku 2011

3. 03

   CLI → WAT → INF

   Heavy rain breaches levees and cuts transport.

   Reported Hagibis 2019²⁰

4. 04

   CLI → HLT

   Heat waves load ambulances and care settings.

   Reported summer 2024¹²

5. 05

   TRD → ENE → FOO

   Fuel and fertiliser price shocks pass into food costs.

   Inferred 2022 price shock

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9Central Disaster Management Council, Working Group on Nankai Trough Megaquake Countermeasures (ed.), Revised damage estimates for a Nankai Trough megaquake. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, March 2025.back
2. 10Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (ed.), Long-term evaluation of earthquakes along the Nankai Trough (revised). MEXT, Tokyo, 2025.back
3. 11Cabinet Office (ed.), “Damage situation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake.” Cabinet Office, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
4. 6Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Climate Change Monitoring Report 2024. JMA, Tokyo, 2025.back
5. 7Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), “Characteristics of the climate in Japan in 2024.” JMA, Tokyo, January 2025.back
6. 12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024.back
7. 20Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (ed.), White Paper on Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan 2025. MLIT, Tokyo, 2025.back
8. 14Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (ed.), Vital Statistics 2024 (births). MHLW, Tokyo, 2025.back
9. 15Statistics Bureau of Japan (ed.), Population Estimates as of 1 October 2024. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Tokyo, 2025.back
10. 5Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ed.), Annual Report on Energy (Energy White Paper) 2025. METI, Tokyo, 2025.back
11. 16Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Food self-sufficiency ratio, FY2023. MAFF, Tokyo, August 2024.back
12. 1Ministry of the Environment and National Institute for Environmental Studies (eds.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, April 2025.back
13. 2Ministry of the Environment (ed.), Progress of the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, 2025.back
14. 3Government of Japan (ed.), Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (targets for FY2035 and FY2040). Submission to the UNFCCC, February 2025.back
15. 29Government of Japan (ed.), Act on the Promotion of a Smooth Transition to a Decarbonised Growth-Oriented Economic Structure (GX Promotion Act), Act No. 32 of 2023. Tokyo, 2023.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-SEI-004

The 2025 revision of the Nankai Trough damage estimate gives a worst case of about 298,000 deaths and ¥292 trillion in damage, with tsunami the leading cause of death.

Implication

Such an event would strike the Pacific industrial belt, ports, refineries and power plants at once, and the national economy and global supply chains through them. Early evacuation and seismic retrofitting are estimated to cut deaths sharply, which makes preparedness a high-value capability⁸⁹.

What would move it

Progress on tsunami evacuation towers and retrofits, the next long-term evaluation, and business-continuity coverage along the Pacific coast would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Greenhouse-gas emissions were 1,071 Mt CO₂e in FY2023: 4.0% below FY2022 and 23.3% below FY2013 (27.1% net of removals).¹

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

   2024 was the warmest year on record in Japan; the long-term warming trend is about 1.4 °C per century.⁶⁷

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002

   Renewables and nuclear together supplied more than 30% of electricity in FY2023; Japan still imports almost all of its fossil fuel.²⁵

2.4SEI

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-SEI-004

   The 2025 revision of the Nankai Trough damage estimate gives up to about 298,000 deaths and ¥292 trillion in damage in the worst case.⁹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-SEI-005

   The January 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake cut water, roads and care across an ageing region for months.¹¹

2.5Food

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

   Food self-sufficiency was 38% on a calorie basis in FY2023, against a target of 45% by FY2030.¹⁶¹⁷

2.6Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

   About 97,600 people were taken to hospital by ambulance for heatstroke between May and September 2024.¹²

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

   29.3% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2024, and births fell to about 686,000.¹⁴¹⁵

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009

   Protected areas covered about 20.5% of land and 13.3% of the sea in 2023, against 30% by 2030.¹⁸¹⁹

2.8Finance

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

   About one in three households holds earthquake insurance; public infrastructure losses are largely uninsured.²²

2.9Trade

1. InferredEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-TRD-011

   Dependence on imported fuel, food and feed makes global price and shipping shocks a direct national risk.⁵¹⁶

2.10Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a large earthquake in an ageing region that cuts water, power, roads and care together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9Central Disaster Management Council, Working Group on Nankai Trough Megaquake Countermeasures (ed.), Revised damage estimates for a Nankai Trough megaquake. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, March 2025.back
2. 8Cabinet Office (ed.), White Paper on Disaster Management 2025. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, 2025.back
3. 1Ministry of the Environment and National Institute for Environmental Studies (eds.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, April 2025.back
4. 6Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Climate Change Monitoring Report 2024. JMA, Tokyo, 2025.back
5. 7Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), “Characteristics of the climate in Japan in 2024.” JMA, Tokyo, January 2025.back
6. 2Ministry of the Environment (ed.), Progress of the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, 2025.back
7. 5Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ed.), Annual Report on Energy (Energy White Paper) 2025. METI, Tokyo, 2025.back
8. 11Cabinet Office (ed.), “Damage situation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake.” Cabinet Office, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9. 16Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Food self-sufficiency ratio, FY2023. MAFF, Tokyo, August 2024.back
10. 17Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas. MAFF, Tokyo, 2025.back
11. 12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024.back
12. 14Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (ed.), Vital Statistics 2024 (births). MHLW, Tokyo, 2025.back
13. 15Statistics Bureau of Japan (ed.), Population Estimates as of 1 October 2024. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Tokyo, 2025.back
14. 18Ministry of the Environment (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan of Japan 2023–2030. MoE, Tokyo, 2023.back
15. 19Ministry of the Environment (ed.), “30by30 roadmap and protected-area statistics.” MoE, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
16. 22General Insurance Rating Organization of Japan (ed.), Earthquake insurance statistics, 2023. GIROJ, Tokyo, 2024.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 20Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (ed.), White Paper on Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan 2025. MLIT, Tokyo, 2025.back
2. 2Ministry of the Environment (ed.), Progress of the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, 2025.back
3. 16Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Food self-sufficiency ratio, FY2023. MAFF, Tokyo, August 2024.back
4. 12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024.back
5. 19Ministry of the Environment (ed.), “30by30 roadmap and protected-area statistics.” MoE, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
6. 9Central Disaster Management Council, Working Group on Nankai Trough Megaquake Countermeasures (ed.), Revised damage estimates for a Nankai Trough megaquake. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, March 2025.back
7. 15Statistics Bureau of Japan (ed.), Population Estimates as of 1 October 2024. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Tokyo, 2025.back
8. 24Bank of Japan (ed.), Financial System Report, April 2025. Bank of Japan, Tokyo, 2025.back
9. 7Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), “Characteristics of the climate in Japan in 2024.” JMA, Tokyo, January 2025.back
10. 18Ministry of the Environment (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan of Japan 2023–2030. MoE, Tokyo, 2023.back
11. 27Cabinet Secretariat (ed.), Basic Plan for National Resilience, 2023 revision. Government of Japan, Tokyo, 2023.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-JPN-SEI-001

   Nankai Trough or Tokyo-area great earthquake

   Driver

   subduction-zone or inland megaquake with tsunami

   Exposure

   Pacific coast industry, ports, cities

   Vulnerability

   older buildings; coastal plants; ageing population

   Capacity

   seismic codes; early warning; evacuation

   Cascade

   SEI → INF, ENE, HLT, FIN, TRD

   Horizon

   30 years

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-JPN-CLI-002

   Heavy rain, typhoon and river flooding

   Driver

   more intense rainfall and stronger typhoons

   Exposure

   floodplains, steep catchments, cities

   Vulnerability

   older levees; landslide-prone slopes

   Capacity

   basin-wide flood control; warnings

   Cascade

   CLI → WAT → INF, HLT

   Horizon

   annual

3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-JPN-HLT-003

   Heat and ageing overload of health and care

   Driver

   longer, hotter summers

   Exposure

   older adults living alone; outdoor workers

   Vulnerability

   limited cooling; workforce shortages

   Capacity

   heat alerts; cooling shelters

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT → ENE peak

   Horizon

   seasonal

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-JPN-ENE-004

   Fuel and LNG supply disruption

   Driver

   shipping disruption or price spike

   Exposure

   power, industry, households

   Vulnerability

   near-total import dependence

   Capacity

   oil stockpiles; nuclear and renewables

   Cascade

   TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 6Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Climate Change Monitoring Report 2024. JMA, Tokyo, 2025.back
2. 11Cabinet Office (ed.), “Damage situation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake.” Cabinet Office, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
3. 22General Insurance Rating Organization of Japan (ed.), Earthquake insurance statistics, 2023. GIROJ, Tokyo, 2024.back
4. 27Cabinet Secretariat (ed.), Basic Plan for National Resilience, 2023 revision. Government of Japan, Tokyo, 2023.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-JPN-EQL-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a magnitude 7.5 or larger earthquake in a remote, ageing coastal region in winter, followed by heavy rain within months

Analogues

Noto Peninsula 2024; Kumamoto 2016

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   SEI → INF

   roads and ports cut; communities isolated

   Noto 2024

2. 2

   SEI → WAT

   pipes break; supply out for weeks to months

   Noto 2024

3. 3

   WAT → HLT

   care homes and hospitals lose water and sanitation

   Noto 2024

4. 4

   CLI → HLT

   winter cold raises disaster-related deaths

   Noto 2024

5. 5

   CLI → INF

   later heavy rain reopens landslides

   September 2024

6. 6

   HLT → population

   older residents relocate; recovery slows

   Tōhoku 2011

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-JPN-EQL-01 would travel through Japan’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Japan 2026, scenario SCN-JPN-EQL-01 (2026); Japan 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

6.1Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.2Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.3GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.4Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.5Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.6Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about Japan’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 26Sustainability Standards Board of Japan (ed.), SSBJ Sustainability Disclosure Standards. SSBJ, Tokyo, March 2025.back
2. 3Government of Japan (ed.), Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (targets for FY2035 and FY2040). Submission to the UNFCCC, February 2025.back
3. 29Government of Japan (ed.), Act on the Promotion of a Smooth Transition to a Decarbonised Growth-Oriented Economic Structure (GX Promotion Act), Act No. 32 of 2023. Tokyo, 2023.back
4. 30Ministry of Finance (ed.), Climate Transition Bonds framework. MoF, Tokyo, 2023.back
5. 4Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (ed.), Seventh Strategic Energy Plan. Cabinet decision, Tokyo, February 2025.back
6. 28Government of Japan (ed.), Basic Act on Disaster Countermeasures, Act No. 223 of 1961, as amended. Tokyo.back
7. 34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
8. 31Government of Japan (ed.), Economic Security Promotion Act, Act No. 43 of 2022. Tokyo, 2022.back
9. 32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
10. 39P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
11. 40J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
12. 6Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Climate Change Monitoring Report 2024. JMA, Tokyo, 2025.back
13. 10Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (ed.), Long-term evaluation of earthquakes along the Nankai Trough (revised). MEXT, Tokyo, 2025.back
14. 8Cabinet Office (ed.), White Paper on Disaster Management 2025. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, 2025.back
15. 9Central Disaster Management Council, Working Group on Nankai Trough Megaquake Countermeasures (ed.), Revised damage estimates for a Nankai Trough megaquake. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, March 2025.back
16. 27Cabinet Secretariat (ed.), Basic Plan for National Resilience, 2023 revision. Government of Japan, Tokyo, 2023.back
17. 44OECD (ed.), OECD Economic Surveys: Japan 2024. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2024.back
18. 1Ministry of the Environment and National Institute for Environmental Studies (eds.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, April 2025.back
19. 16Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Food self-sufficiency ratio, FY2023. MAFF, Tokyo, August 2024.back
20. 15Statistics Bureau of Japan (ed.), Population Estimates as of 1 October 2024. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Tokyo, 2025.back
21. 13Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (ed.), Vital Statistics: deaths from heatstroke, 2023. MHLW, Tokyo, 2024.back
22. 14Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (ed.), Vital Statistics 2024 (births). MHLW, Tokyo, 2025.back
23. 12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024.back
24. 22General Insurance Rating Organization of Japan (ed.), Earthquake insurance statistics, 2023. GIROJ, Tokyo, 2024.back
25. 23General Insurance Association of Japan (ed.), “Insurance payouts for major windstorm and flood losses.” GIAJ, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
26. 24Bank of Japan (ed.), Financial System Report, April 2025. Bank of Japan, Tokyo, 2025.back
27. 38Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a large earthquake in an ageing region cut water, power, roads and care together, and how long would recovery take?

   INI-JPN-SEI-01 · lifeline–care continuity; first output: dependency graph for two regions.

2. A-02

   How deep are fuel and LNG stocks against a prolonged shipping disruption?

   INI-JPN-ENE-02 · import resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.

3. A-03

   How exposed are food and feed supply to concurrent import and domestic shocks?

   INI-JPN-FOO-03 · food import exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.

4. A-04

   How much heat-health surge capacity remains in large cities and rural care?

   INI-JPN-HLT-04 · heat and ageing; first output: surge baseline for five prefectures.

5. A-05

   Where do typhoon and heavy-rain losses fall on the uninsured, and on public budgets?

   INI-JPN-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-prefecture loss table.

6. A-06

   How do river basins and dams perform under more intense rainfall?

   INI-JPN-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.

7. A-07

   How resilient are semiconductor and battery supply chains to seismic shocks?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?

   National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

Japan is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Japan from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   One National Agenda

   bounded national questions for the year

   DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

2. 02

   National Desk

   coordination, records, routing and continuity

   DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

3. 03

   National Model

   the country as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

4. 04

   National Portfolio

   risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

   7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

5. 05

   Foundry

   continuous computational environment

   PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-JPN-2027-Q1

6. 06

   Reports

   quarterly and annual publication

   BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

7. 07

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   after-action, correction and renewal

   OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-JPN-2027-01 · Earthquake–lifeline–care Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024.back
2. 11Cabinet Office (ed.), “Damage situation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake.” Cabinet Office, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Japan has ample rainfall but steep, short rivers, so water arrives fast and leaves fast. Floods, landslides and seismic damage to pipes are the binding risks.

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Emissions are at a record low and clean power passed 30% of electricity in FY2023, but Japan still imports almost all of its oil, gas and coal.

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Japan grows 38% of its food on a calorie basis, and much of its feed and fertiliser is imported, so food security is a trade question.

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Japan has long life expectancy and universal coverage, but heat and ageing now load health and care every summer, and disasters hit older people hardest.

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Japan has high endemism across its islands, and protection on land is above 20%, but the sea is further behind and invasive species and land-use change continue.

8.6Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Japan. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 20Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (ed.), White Paper on Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan 2025. MLIT, Tokyo, 2025.back
2. 11Cabinet Office (ed.), “Damage situation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake.” Cabinet Office, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
3. 21Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (ed.), Water Resources in Japan 2024. MLIT, Tokyo, 2024.back
4. 2Ministry of the Environment (ed.), Progress of the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, 2025.back
5. 5Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ed.), Annual Report on Energy (Energy White Paper) 2025. METI, Tokyo, 2025.back
6. 4Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (ed.), Seventh Strategic Energy Plan. Cabinet decision, Tokyo, February 2025.back
7. 12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024.back
8. 16Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Food self-sufficiency ratio, FY2023. MAFF, Tokyo, August 2024.back
9. 17Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas. MAFF, Tokyo, 2025.back
10. 15Statistics Bureau of Japan (ed.), Population Estimates as of 1 October 2024. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Tokyo, 2025.back
11. 13Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (ed.), Vital Statistics: deaths from heatstroke, 2023. MHLW, Tokyo, 2024.back
12. 19Ministry of the Environment (ed.), “30by30 roadmap and protected-area statistics.” MoE, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
13. 34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
14. 18Ministry of the Environment (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan of Japan 2023–2030. MoE, Tokyo, 2023.back

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID

MDL-JPN-NATIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent Japan as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

national scale; not for prefecture or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-JPN-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

44 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-JPN-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• HERP long-term evaluations¹⁰, probability method
• MAFF self-sufficiency¹⁶, calorie and production bases
• FDMA heatstroke data¹², counting rules
• GIROJ earthquake insurance²², take-up definitions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at Global Risks Forum (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition, net greenhouse-gas emissions

Construct

annual emissions minus forest and land removals

Unit

Mt CO₂e, 100-year potentials

Scope

Japan’s fiscal year

Source

MoE–NIES inventory¹

Revision

back-revised each April

Known limits

removals estimates carry wider uncertainty

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Ministry of the Environment and National Institute for Environmental Studies (eds.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, April 2025.back
2. 9Central Disaster Management Council, Working Group on Nankai Trough Megaquake Countermeasures (ed.), Revised damage estimates for a Nankai Trough megaquake. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, March 2025.back
3. 10Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (ed.), Long-term evaluation of earthquakes along the Nankai Trough (revised). MEXT, Tokyo, 2025.back
4. 16Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Food self-sufficiency ratio, FY2023. MAFF, Tokyo, August 2024.back
5. 12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024.back
6. 22General Insurance Rating Organization of Japan (ed.), Earthquake insurance statistics, 2023. GIROJ, Tokyo, 2024.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading, Japan by region

Map plates for every prefecture follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Selected populations¹⁵

B.4Atlas card, Noto Peninsula (Ishikawa)

• region
• peninsula
• ageing community
• remote lifelines

Systems in view

water, roads, power, health and care

Defining events

M7.6 earthquake on 1 January 2024; heavy-rain disaster in September 2024¹¹

Couplings

SEI → WAT → HLT; SEI → INF; CLI → INF

Capability evidence

national response and mutual aid in real events

Gaps

water restoration time; care continuity; relocation

Agenda items

A-01 · A-04

B.5Japan system card

The card through which Japan appears in the East Asia regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

high-income, ageing island economy with extreme seismic exposure

Population

123.8 million (2024)¹⁵

Trade

import-dependent for fuel, food and feed⁵¹⁶

Hazard

Nankai Trough worst case ¥292 trillion⁹

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-JPN-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Ministry of the Environment and National Institute for Environmental Studies (eds.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, April 2025.back
2. 2Ministry of the Environment (ed.), Progress of the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, 2025.back
3. 5Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ed.), Annual Report on Energy (Energy White Paper) 2025. METI, Tokyo, 2025.back
4. 16Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Food self-sufficiency ratio, FY2023. MAFF, Tokyo, August 2024.back
5. 15Statistics Bureau of Japan (ed.), Population Estimates as of 1 October 2024. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Tokyo, 2025.back
6. 14Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (ed.), Vital Statistics 2024 (births). MHLW, Tokyo, 2025.back
7. 12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024.back
8. 13Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (ed.), Vital Statistics: deaths from heatstroke, 2023. MHLW, Tokyo, 2024.back
9. 9Central Disaster Management Council, Working Group on Nankai Trough Megaquake Countermeasures (ed.), Revised damage estimates for a Nankai Trough megaquake. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, March 2025.back
10. 19Ministry of the Environment (ed.), “30by30 roadmap and protected-area statistics.” MoE, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
11. 22General Insurance Rating Organization of Japan (ed.), Earthquake insurance statistics, 2023. GIROJ, Tokyo, 2024.back
12. 6Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Climate Change Monitoring Report 2024. JMA, Tokyo, 2025.back
13. 7Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), “Characteristics of the climate in Japan in 2024.” JMA, Tokyo, January 2025.back
14. 8Cabinet Office (ed.), White Paper on Disaster Management 2025. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, 2025.back
15. 10Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (ed.), Long-term evaluation of earthquakes along the Nankai Trough (revised). MEXT, Tokyo, 2025.back
16. 11Cabinet Office (ed.), “Damage situation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake.” Cabinet Office, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
17. 20Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (ed.), White Paper on Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan 2025. MLIT, Tokyo, 2025.back
18. 23General Insurance Association of Japan (ed.), “Insurance payouts for major windstorm and flood losses.” GIAJ, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back

C.144 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Ministry of the Environment and National Institute for Environmental Studies (eds.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, April 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
2. 2Ministry of the Environment (ed.), Progress of the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
3. 3Government of Japan (ed.), Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (targets for FY2035 and FY2040). Submission to the UNFCCC, February 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
4. 4Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (ed.), Seventh Strategic Energy Plan. Cabinet decision, Tokyo, February 2025. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ed.), Annual Report on Energy (Energy White Paper) 2025. METI, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
6. 6Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Climate Change Monitoring Report 2024. JMA, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
7. 7Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), “Characteristics of the climate in Japan in 2024.” JMA, Tokyo, January 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3
8. 8Cabinet Office (ed.), White Paper on Disaster Management 2025. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
9. 9Central Disaster Management Council, Working Group on Nankai Trough Megaquake Countermeasures (ed.), Revised damage estimates for a Nankai Trough megaquake. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, March 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
10. 10Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (ed.), Long-term evaluation of earthquakes along the Nankai Trough (revised). MEXT, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
11. 11Cabinet Office (ed.), “Damage situation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake.” Cabinet Office, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 7, chapter 8
12. 12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
13. 13Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (ed.), Vital Statistics: deaths from heatstroke, 2023. MHLW, Tokyo, 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (ed.), Vital Statistics 2024 (births). MHLW, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
15. 15Statistics Bureau of Japan (ed.), Population Estimates as of 1 October 2024. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Food self-sufficiency ratio, FY2023. MAFF, Tokyo, August 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
17. 17Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas. MAFF, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
18. 18Ministry of the Environment (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan of Japan 2023–2030. MoE, Tokyo, 2023. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
19. 19Ministry of the Environment (ed.), “30by30 roadmap and protected-area statistics.” MoE, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
20. 20Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (ed.), White Paper on Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan 2025. MLIT, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 8
21. 21Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (ed.), Water Resources in Japan 2024. MLIT, Tokyo, 2024. Cited in chapter 8
22. 22General Insurance Rating Organization of Japan (ed.), Earthquake insurance statistics, 2023. GIROJ, Tokyo, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
23. 23General Insurance Association of Japan (ed.), “Insurance payouts for major windstorm and flood losses.” GIAJ, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 6
24. 24Bank of Japan (ed.), Financial System Report, April 2025. Bank of Japan, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
25. 25Financial Services Agency (ed.), Supervisory guidance on climate-related risk management and client engagement. FSA, Tokyo, 2022.
26. 26Sustainability Standards Board of Japan (ed.), SSBJ Sustainability Disclosure Standards. SSBJ, Tokyo, March 2025. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27Cabinet Secretariat (ed.), Basic Plan for National Resilience, 2023 revision. Government of Japan, Tokyo, 2023. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
28. 28Government of Japan (ed.), Basic Act on Disaster Countermeasures, Act No. 223 of 1961, as amended. Tokyo. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29Government of Japan (ed.), Act on the Promotion of a Smooth Transition to a Decarbonised Growth-Oriented Economic Structure (GX Promotion Act), Act No. 32 of 2023. Tokyo, 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
30. 30Ministry of Finance (ed.), Climate Transition Bonds framework. MoF, Tokyo, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
31. 31Government of Japan (ed.), Economic Security Promotion Act, Act No. 43 of 2022. Tokyo, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
32. 32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.
34. 34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
35. 35UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.
36. 36International Energy Agency (ed.), Japan 2021: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2021.
37. 37International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.
38. 38Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
40. 40J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025.
42. 42S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
43. 43S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
44. 44OECD (ed.), OECD Economic Surveys: Japan 2024. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2024. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version