United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

The eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 53% below 1990.¹

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. 2022 was the first year above 10 °C; 40.3 °C was recorded in July 2022.²⁸²⁹

   Is the climate already changing?Reported

3. Older people and those with chronic illness; about 2,985 heat-associated deaths in England in 2022.¹¹¹²

   Who is most exposed to heat?Reported

4. About 6.3 million properties in England, potentially 8 million by 2050.⁸

   How large is flood exposure?Reported

5. England faces a shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without action.⁹

   Is water supply secure?Scenario

6. The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes.¹⁴

   How dependent is food on imports?Reported

7. Species abundance down 19% on average since 1970.¹⁵

   How is nature faring?Reported

8. A hot, dry summer loading health, water, rail and power at once. SCN-GBR-HDS-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

About 6.3 million properties in England, roughly one in four, are in areas at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea or surface water, potentially rising to around 8 million by 2050.

Surface-water flooding now drives most exposure and is the hardest to defend against with walls and barriers. As Flood Re moves towards risk-reflective pricing by 2039²¹, affordability and cover in the most exposed homes become a fiscal and household question⁸²⁰.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.back
2. 18Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.back
3. 28Met Office (ed.), “Record high temperatures verified” (40.3 °C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.back
4. 29Met Office (ed.), “2022: the UK’s warmest year on record.” Met Office, Exeter, January 2023.back
5. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
6. 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
7. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
8. 14Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.back
9. 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.back
10. 12UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
11. 21Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.back
12. 20Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024.back
13. 13Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2023. ONS, Newport, 2024.back
14. 7Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.back
15. 4Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is Canada’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The United Kingdom matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → WAT → HLT

   Heat and drought strain supply and river quality while health demand peaks.

   Reported summer 2022¹¹

2. 02

   ENE → INF → DAT

   A single substation failure halts an airport and dependent services.

   Reported Heathrow, March 2025¹⁹

3. 03

   CLI → WAT → FIN

   Surface-water flooding lands on households with costly cover.

   Inferred NaFRA2⁸

4. 04

   ENE → FOO

   Energy and import prices pass into food prices.

   Inferred 2022 price shock¹⁴

5. 05

   WAT → BIO

   Storm overflows and low flows degrade rivers.

   Reported 2023 spills¹⁰

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 28Met Office (ed.), “Record high temperatures verified” (40.3 °C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.back
2. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
3. 29Met Office (ed.), “2022: the UK’s warmest year on record.” Met Office, Exeter, January 2023.back
4. 4Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.back
5. 5HM Government (ed.), UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022. HM Government, London, January 2022.back
6. 6Climate Change Committee (ed.), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2025 Report to Parliament. CCC, London, 2025.back
7. 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
8. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
9. 10Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024.back
10. 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.back
11. 18Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.back
12. 16Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024.back
13. 17National Energy System Operator (ed.), Clean Power 2030: Advice on Achieving Clean Power for Great Britain by 2030. NESO, Warwick, November 2024.back
14. 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back
15. 14Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.back
16. 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

About 6.3 million properties in England, roughly one in four, are in areas at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea or surface water, potentially rising to around 8 million by 2050.

Implication

Surface-water flooding now drives most exposure and is the hardest to defend against with walls and barriers. As Flood Re moves towards risk-reflective pricing by 2039²¹, affordability and cover in the most exposed homes become a fiscal and household question⁸²⁰.

What would move it

Flood warnings in the 2026–27 winter, the Flood Re transition, and updated assessments for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Territorial greenhouse-gas emissions were 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3% below 2023 and 53% below 1990.¹

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

   2022 was the first year with a UK mean temperature above 10 °C, and 40.3 °C was recorded on 19 July 2022.²⁸²⁹

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002

   The UK’s last coal-fired power station closed in September 2024, ending 142 years of coal power.¹⁸

2.4Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004

   About 2,985 heat-associated deaths were recorded in England in summer 2022.¹¹

2.5Water

1. ScenarioEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

   England faces a public water-supply shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without new action.⁹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

   About 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, potentially around 8 million by 2050.⁸

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

   Storm overflows in England spilled more than 460,000 times in 2023.¹⁰

2.6Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008

   The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes.¹⁴

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009

   Studied species have declined in abundance by 19% on average since 1970; one in six is at risk of extinction in Great Britain.¹⁵

2.8Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-INF-010

   A substation fire closed Heathrow Airport for most of 21 March 2025, showing single points of failure in critical infrastructure.¹⁹

2.9Governance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-GOV-011

   The third UK climate risk assessment identified 61 risks and opportunities; the National Risk Register 2023 sets out 89 risks.⁴⁷

2.10Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which heat, drought, water shortage and grassland fires load health, water, rail and power at once. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
2. 21Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.back
3. 20Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024.back
4. 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.back
5. 28Met Office (ed.), “Record high temperatures verified” (40.3 °C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.back
6. 29Met Office (ed.), “2022: the UK’s warmest year on record.” Met Office, Exeter, January 2023.back
7. 18Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.back
8. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
9. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
10. 10Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024.back
11. 14Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.back
12. 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.back
13. 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back
14. 4Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.back
15. 7Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
2. 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.back
3. 14Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.back
4. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
5. 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.back
6. 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
7. 4Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.back
8. 7Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.back
9. 16Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024.back
10. 18Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.back
11. 12UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
12. 20Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024.back
13. 21Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.back
14. 29Met Office (ed.), “2022: the UK’s warmest year on record.” Met Office, Exeter, January 2023.back
15. 27Cabinet Office (ed.), The UK Government Resilience Framework. HM Government, London, December 2022.back
16. 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back
17. 22Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (ed.), “Data centres designated Critical National Infrastructure.” Press release, London, September 2024.back
18. 24UK Parliament (ed.), Climate Change Act 2008, as amended by the Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019. London.back
19. 25UK Parliament (ed.), Environment Act 2021. London, 2021.back
20. 26UK Parliament (ed.), Water (Special Measures) Act 2025. London, 2025.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GBR-CLI-001

   Extreme heat

   Driver

   heatwaves above 35–40 °C

   Exposure

   older people; care homes; dense cities

   Vulnerability

   housing not designed for heat; limited cooling

   Capacity

   heat-health alerts; NHS surge planning

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT · CLI → INF rail and power

   Horizon

   seasonal

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GBR-CLI-002

   Surface-water and river flooding

   Driver

   extreme rainfall; storm sequences

   Exposure

   6.3 million properties in England⁸

   Vulnerability

   urban drainage capacity; cover affordability

   Capacity

   flood warnings; defences; Flood Re²¹

   Cascade

   WAT → INF, HLT, FIN

   Horizon

   annual

3. ScenarioEQL 3RSK-GBR-WAT-003

   Drought and water-supply shortfall

   Driver

   dry summers; population growth

   Exposure

   South and East of England

   Vulnerability

   leakage; limited storage

   Capacity

   new reservoirs; transfers; demand management⁹

   Cascade

   WAT → HLT, FOO, BIO

   Horizon

   5–30 years

4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-GBR-INF-004

   Single points of failure in lifelines

   Driver

   fire, flood or cyber event at a critical node

   Exposure

   airports, hospitals, data centres, rail

   Vulnerability

   limited redundancy at key substations¹⁹

   Capacity

   resilience framework²⁷; backup supply

   Cascade

   ENE → INF → DAT, TRD

   Horizon

   any time

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
2. 21Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.back
3. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
4. 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back
5. 27Cabinet Office (ed.), The UK Government Resilience Framework. HM Government, London, December 2022.back
6. 6Climate Change Committee (ed.), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2025 Report to Parliament. CCC, London, 2025.back
7. 7Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.back
8. 22Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (ed.), “Data centres designated Critical National Infrastructure.” Press release, London, September 2024.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a dry winter and spring; a heatwave above 38 °C in July; grassland fires on the urban edge

Analogues

summer 2022¹¹²⁸; 1976 drought

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → WAT

   low rainfall and heat cut river flows and reservoir levels

   2022

2. 2

   CLI → HLT

   heat deaths and emergency demand rise

   2022¹¹

3. 3

   CLI → BIO

   grassland and heath fires near cities

   2022

4. 4

   CLI → INF

   rail speed restrictions and track failures

   2022

5. 5

   WAT → HLT

   hosepipe bans; river quality falls

   2022

6. 6

   ENE → HLT

   cooling demand meets constrained networks

   ,

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01 would travel through United Kingdom’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: United Kingdom 2026, scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01 (2026); United Kingdom 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
2. 28Met Office (ed.), “Record high temperatures verified” (40.3 °C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.back

6.1Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.2Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.3GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.4Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.5Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED
• UNDER REVIEW

6.6Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers statutory assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in Q1 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the United Kingdom’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; statutory assessments; official statistics; agency and industry data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 21Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.back
2. 16Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024.back
3. 24UK Parliament (ed.), Climate Change Act 2008, as amended by the Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019. London.back
4. 25UK Parliament (ed.), Environment Act 2021. London, 2021.back
5. 26UK Parliament (ed.), Water (Special Measures) Act 2025. London, 2025.back
6. 27Cabinet Office (ed.), The UK Government Resilience Framework. HM Government, London, December 2022.back
7. 22Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (ed.), “Data centres designated Critical National Infrastructure.” Press release, London, September 2024.back
8. 23Department for Business and Trade (ed.), Resilience for the Future: The UK’s Critical Minerals Strategy. DBT, London, 2023.back
9. 18Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.back
10. 3M. Kendon et al., “State of the UK Climate 2024,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 45, 2025.back
11. 4Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.back
12. 5HM Government (ed.), UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022. HM Government, London, January 2022.back
13. 6Climate Change Committee (ed.), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2025 Report to Parliament. CCC, London, 2025.back
14. 31H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
15. 32J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
16. 34P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
17. 7Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.back
18. 12UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
19. 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.back
20. 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
21. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
22. 10Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024.back
23. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
24. 13Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2023. ONS, Newport, 2024.back
25. 14Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.back
26. 17National Energy System Operator (ed.), Clean Power 2030: Advice on Achieving Clean Power for Great Britain by 2030. NESO, Warwick, November 2024.back
27. 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back
28. 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.back
29. 20Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024.back
30. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a hot, dry summer load health services, water supply, rail and power in southern England at the same time?

   INI-GBR-HDS-01 · hot, dry summer; first output: dependency graph for three regions.

2. A-02

   Where does surface-water flood risk fall on households, and how will cover change as Flood Re transitions by 2039?

   INI-GBR-FLD-02 · flood exposure and cover; first output: exposure–cover table by region.

3. A-03

   Which substations, data centres and lifeline nodes are single points of failure for other critical services?

   INI-GBR-INF-03 · lifeline interdependence; first output: public-safe interdependence schematic.

4. A-04

   How would a shock to imported food and energy pass into household prices and food security?

   INI-GBR-FOO-04 · import price transmission; first output: transmission model.

5. A-05

   What surge capacity do the NHS and social care have for a 40 °C heatwave?

   INI-GBR-HLT-05 · heat surge readiness; first output: surge baseline for five regions.

6. A-06

   How do storm overflows, drought and heat combine to degrade river water quality?

   With GS-01 Water; first output: basin note.

7. A-07

   Which coastal communities face combined erosion, sea-level rise and storm surge?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

United Kingdom is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027, across all four nations. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   One National Agenda

   bounded national questions for the year

   DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

2. 02

   National Desk

   coordination, records, routing and continuity

   DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

3. 03

   National Model

   the country as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

4. 04

   National Portfolio

   risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

   7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

5. 05

   Foundry

   continuous computational environment

   PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-GBR-2027-Q1

6. 06

   Reports

   quarterly and annual publication

   BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

7. 07

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   after-action, correction and renewal

   OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-GBR-2027-01 · hot, dry summer

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back
2. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
3. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
4. 12UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.back

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Britain has too much water in winter and too little in summer. Flood exposure is rising while the South and East face a projected supply shortfall.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-05 Finance
• XT-01 AI

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

The power system has changed fastest of all: coal ended in 2024 and clean power is planned for 2030. Electrification makes the grid the backbone of other systems.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-05 Finance
• XT-01 AI

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes. Import and energy prices pass quickly to households, and drought and heat cut domestic yields.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-05 Finance
• XT-01 AI

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Heat is the fastest-growing climate–health risk in a country built for cold. Floods and cold also load the NHS and social care.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-05 Finance
• XT-01 AI

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

The UK is among the most nature-depleted countries. Species abundance has fallen by a fifth since 1970, weakening natural flood and water regulation.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-05 Finance
• XT-01 AI

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
2. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
3. 10Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024.back
4. 26UK Parliament (ed.), Water (Special Measures) Act 2025. London, 2025.back
5. 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.back
6. 18Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.back
7. 16Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024.back
8. 17National Energy System Operator (ed.), Clean Power 2030: Advice on Achieving Clean Power for Great Britain by 2030. NESO, Warwick, November 2024.back
9. 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back
10. 14Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.back
11. 4Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.back
12. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
13. 28Met Office (ed.), “Record high temperatures verified” (40.3 °C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.back
14. 12UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
15. 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.back
16. 25UK Parliament (ed.), Environment Act 2021. London, 2021.back

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID

MDL-GBR-NATIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent the United Kingdom as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

national scale; not for nation, region or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

40 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-GBR-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• Water resources framework⁹, demand and supply projections
• Heat mortality report¹¹, excess-death method
• State of Nature¹⁵, abundance index method
• National Risk Register⁷, likelihood and impact scales

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at Global Risks Forum (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition, territorial greenhouse-gas emissions

Construct

annual greenhouse-gas emissions within UK territory, net of land use

Unit

Mt CO₂e

Scope

territorial basis used for UK targets

Source

DESNZ final figures 2024¹

Revision

back-revised each February

Known limits

excludes emissions embodied in imports

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.back
2. 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
3. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
4. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
5. 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.back
6. 7Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• DAT
• TRD

B.3Regional reading, the four nations and English regions

Map plates for each nation and region follow in Q2 2027. This page gives the regional reading in table form, and ranks no nation or region.

B.4Atlas card, London

• city
• river basin
• grid region
• transport hub

Systems in view

health, water, transport, power

Defining events

40 °C heat in July 2022²⁸; surface-water flooding in 2021; Heathrow substation outage in March 2025¹⁹

Couplings

CLI → HLT heat; WAT → INF surface water; ENE → INF single points of failure

Capability evidence

heat-health and flood warnings used in real events

Gaps

heat surge capacity; drainage capacity; lifeline redundancy

Agenda items

A-01 · A-02 · A-03

B.5United Kingdom system card

The card through which the United Kingdom appears in the Europe regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

high-income island economy with a temperate maritime climate

Population

68.3 million (mid-2023)¹³

Emissions

53% below 1990 (2024)¹

Food

about 60% produced domestically¹⁴

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.back
2. 18Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.back
3. 28Met Office (ed.), “Record high temperatures verified” (40.3 °C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.back
4. 29Met Office (ed.), “2022: the UK’s warmest year on record.” Met Office, Exeter, January 2023.back
5. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
6. 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
7. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
8. 10Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024.back
9. 13Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2023. ONS, Newport, 2024.back
10. 14Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.back
11. 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.back
12. 7Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.back
13. 4Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.back
14. 3M. Kendon et al., “State of the UK Climate 2024,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 45, 2025.back
15. 5HM Government (ed.), UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022. HM Government, London, January 2022.back
16. 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back

C.140 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in chapter 6
3. 3M. Kendon et al., “State of the UK Climate 2024,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 45, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
4. 4Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5HM Government (ed.), UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022. HM Government, London, January 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
6. 6Climate Change Committee (ed.), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2025 Report to Parliament. CCC, London, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
7. 7Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
8. 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
10. 10Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
12. 12UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
13. 13Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2023. ONS, Newport, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
14. 14Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
15. 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
17. 17National Energy System Operator (ed.), Clean Power 2030: Advice on Achieving Clean Power for Great Britain by 2030. NESO, Warwick, November 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
20. 20Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
21. 21Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
22. 22Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (ed.), “Data centres designated Critical National Infrastructure.” Press release, London, September 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
23. 23Department for Business and Trade (ed.), Resilience for the Future: The UK’s Critical Minerals Strategy. DBT, London, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
24. 24UK Parliament (ed.), Climate Change Act 2008, as amended by the Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019. London. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
25. 25UK Parliament (ed.), Environment Act 2021. London, 2021. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
26. 26UK Parliament (ed.), Water (Special Measures) Act 2025. London, 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
27. 27Cabinet Office (ed.), The UK Government Resilience Framework. HM Government, London, December 2022. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
28. 28Met Office (ed.), “Record high temperatures verified” (40.3 °C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 8
29. 29Met Office (ed.), “2022: the UK’s warmest year on record.” Met Office, Exeter, January 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3
30. 30WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. WMO, Geneva, March 2026.
31. 31H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
32. 32J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010.
34. 34P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
35. 35S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
36. 36S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
37. 37S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
38. 38S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026, AI and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
39. 39S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United States Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
40. 40S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version