Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

The eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. 649 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 48% below 1990, about 35 Mt a year of cuts still needed to 2030.¹³

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. 2024 was the warmest year on record; the first federal adaptation law took effect in July 2024.⁸¹⁰

   Is the climate already changing?Reported

3. Flash floods in small, steep valleys killed more than 180 people and caused about €40 billion of damage.¹⁴¹⁵

   What did 2021 show?Reported

4. Nearly half of homes have no natural-hazard cover; much damage falls on households and reconstruction funds.¹³¹⁴

   Who carries flood losses?Reported

5. Russian pipeline gas stopped; storage, LNG terminals and demand cuts filled the gap.¹⁷

   How did the energy system cope with 2022?Reported

6. Low Rhine water in 2018 and 2022 restricted shipping and industrial supply.²⁴

   How exposed is freight to drought?Reported

7. Insect biomass down more than 75% in protected areas; 500,000 ha of forest damaged.¹⁸²⁰

   How is nature faring?Reported

8. A hot, dry summer with low Rhine water, heat and forest fires. SCN-DEU-HDR-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004

The floods of July 2021 killed more than 180 people in Germany, 135 in the Ahr valley, and caused damage of about €40 billion, while only about 54% of homes carried natural-hazard insurance.

Flash floods in small, steep catchments give little warning and leave little time to act. Where homes are uninsured, recovery depends on public reconstruction funds, so flood exposure is also a fiscal exposure¹³¹⁴¹⁵.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Treibhausgas-Emissionen in Deutschland 2024: Vorjahresschätzung. UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, March 2025.back
2. 16Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (ed.), “Abschaltung der letzten drei Kernkraftwerke am 15. April 2023.” BMWK, Berlin, 2023.back
3. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
4. 7Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2024 (AGEE-Stat). UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, 2025.back
5. 8Deutscher Wetterdienst (ed.), Deutschlandwetter im Jahr 2024. DWD, Offenbach, December 2024.back
6. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
7. 15Prognos, IÖW and GWS (eds.), Kosten durch Klimawandelfolgen in Deutschland. Report for BMWK and BMUV, Berlin, 2022.back
8. 13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024.back
9. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
10. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back
11. 18C. A. Hallmann, M. Sorg, E. Jongejans et al., “More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas,” PLOS ONE, vol. 12, e0185809, 2017.back
12. 3Expertenrat für Klimafragen (ed.), Prüfbericht zur Berechnung der deutschen Treibhausgasemissionen für das Jahr 2024. ERK, Berlin, 2025.back
13. 10Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaanpassungsgesetz (KAnG). Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2023; in force 1 July 2024.back
14. 6Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Bevölkerungsstand: Bevölkerung am 31.12.2024. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2025.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is Canada’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Germany matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → WAT → INF

   Extreme rain in small valleys destroys roads, rail and homes.

   Reported July 2021¹⁴

2. 02

   CLI → WAT → TRD

   Low Rhine water restricts freight and industrial supply.

   Reported 2018 · 2022²⁴

3. 03

   ENE → industry → FIN

   A gas supply shock raises costs across industry and households.

   Reported 2022¹⁷

4. 04

   CLI → BIO → WAT

   Drought and bark beetles kill forests that regulate water.

   Reported 2018–2021²⁰

5. 05

   CLI → HLT

   Heatwaves raise deaths among older people.

   Reported 2022⁴

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
2. 15Prognos, IÖW and GWS (eds.), Kosten durch Klimawandelfolgen in Deutschland. Report for BMWK and BMUV, Berlin, 2022.back
3. 39F. Kreienkamp, S. Y. Philip, J. S. Tradowsky et al., Rapid attribution of heavy rainfall events leading to the severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021. World Weather Attribution, 2021.back
4. 8Deutscher Wetterdienst (ed.), Deutschlandwetter im Jahr 2024. DWD, Offenbach, December 2024.back
5. 4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023.back
6. 9Bundesregierung (ed.), Vorsorgende Klimaanpassungsstrategie der Bundesregierung. Berlin, December 2024.back
7. 10Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaanpassungsgesetz (KAnG). Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2023; in force 1 July 2024.back
8. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
9. 12Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Nichtöffentliche und öffentliche Wasserversorgung und Abwasserentsorgung 2019. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2022.back
10. 26Bundesregierung (ed.), Nationale Wasserstrategie. Berlin, March 2023.back
11. 7Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2024 (AGEE-Stat). UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, 2025.back
12. 16Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (ed.), “Abschaltung der letzten drei Kernkraftwerke am 15. April 2023.” BMWK, Berlin, 2023.back
13. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
14. 1Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Treibhausgas-Emissionen in Deutschland 2024: Vorjahresschätzung. UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, March 2025.back
15. 3Expertenrat für Klimafragen (ed.), Prüfbericht zur Berechnung der deutschen Treibhausgasemissionen für das Jahr 2024. ERK, Berlin, 2025.back
16. 13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024.back
17. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back
18. 18C. A. Hallmann, M. Sorg, E. Jongejans et al., “More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas,” PLOS ONE, vol. 12, e0185809, 2017.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004

The floods of July 2021 killed more than 180 people in Germany, 135 in the Ahr valley, and caused damage of about €40 billion, while only about 54% of homes carried natural-hazard insurance.

Implication

Flash floods in small, steep catchments give little warning and leave little time to act. Where homes are uninsured, recovery depends on public reconstruction funds, so flood exposure is also a fiscal exposure¹³¹⁴¹⁵.

What would move it

Decisions on mandatory natural-hazard insurance, flood-warning reforms after 2021 and heavy-rain events in the 2027 summer would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Greenhouse-gas emissions were 649 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.4% below 2023 and 48% below 1990.¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   The 2030 target of 65% below 1990 (about 438 Mt) requires cuts of about 35 Mt a year.³¹¹

3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

   2024 was the warmest year in the German record, which begins in 1881.⁸

2.3Water

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004

   The July 2021 floods killed more than 180 people in Germany, 135 in the Ahr valley, and caused damage of about €40 billion.¹⁴¹⁵

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009

   Low water on the Rhine in 2018 and 2022 restricted freight shipping and industrial supply.²⁴

2.4Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

   Only about 54% of residential buildings carry natural-hazard insurance.¹³

2.5Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006

   Renewables supplied about 54% of gross electricity consumption in 2024; the last nuclear reactors closed in April 2023.⁷¹⁶

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007

   Russian pipeline gas stopped in 2022; supply was secured through storage, new LNG terminals and demand reduction.¹⁷

2.6Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

   About 4,500 heat-related deaths were estimated in 2022.⁴

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010

   Flying-insect biomass declined by more than 75% over 27 years in protected areas.¹⁸

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

   About 500,000 hectares of forest were damaged by drought, heat and bark beetles between 2018 and 2021.²⁰

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which low Rhine water cuts freight and industrial supply while heat, drought and forest fires load health, forests and power. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
2. 13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024.back
3. 15Prognos, IÖW and GWS (eds.), Kosten durch Klimawandelfolgen in Deutschland. Report for BMWK and BMUV, Berlin, 2022.back
4. 1Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Treibhausgas-Emissionen in Deutschland 2024: Vorjahresschätzung. UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, March 2025.back
5. 3Expertenrat für Klimafragen (ed.), Prüfbericht zur Berechnung der deutschen Treibhausgasemissionen für das Jahr 2024. ERK, Berlin, 2025.back
6. 11Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaschutzgesetz (KSG), as amended in 2024. Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin.back
7. 8Deutscher Wetterdienst (ed.), Deutschlandwetter im Jahr 2024. DWD, Offenbach, December 2024.back
8. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
9. 7Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2024 (AGEE-Stat). UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, 2025.back
10. 16Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (ed.), “Abschaltung der letzten drei Kernkraftwerke am 15. April 2023.” BMWK, Berlin, 2023.back
11. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
12. 4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023.back
13. 18C. A. Hallmann, M. Sorg, E. Jongejans et al., “More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas,” PLOS ONE, vol. 12, e0185809, 2017.back
14. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Nichtöffentliche und öffentliche Wasserversorgung und Abwasserentsorgung 2019. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2022.back
2. 7Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2024 (AGEE-Stat). UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, 2025.back
3. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
4. 4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023.back
5. 18C. A. Hallmann, M. Sorg, E. Jongejans et al., “More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas,” PLOS ONE, vol. 12, e0185809, 2017.back
6. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
7. 15Prognos, IÖW and GWS (eds.), Kosten durch Klimawandelfolgen in Deutschland. Report for BMWK and BMUV, Berlin, 2022.back
8. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
9. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
10. 5Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2023 und 2024. RKI, Berlin, 2024–2025.back
11. 13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024.back
12. 8Deutscher Wetterdienst (ed.), Deutschlandwetter im Jahr 2024. DWD, Offenbach, December 2024.back
13. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back
14. 10Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaanpassungsgesetz (KAnG). Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2023; in force 1 July 2024.back
15. 11Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaschutzgesetz (KSG), as amended in 2024. Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-DEU-CLI-001

   Flash floods in small, steep catchments

   Driver

   stationary storms with extreme rainfall

   Exposure

   valley towns in upland regions

   Vulnerability

   short warning times; uninsured homes¹³

   Capacity

   flood forecasting; civil protection; reconstruction funds

   Cascade

   CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN

   Horizon

   annual

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-DEU-WAT-002

   Low water on the Rhine

   Driver

   dry summers; low snowmelt from the Alps

   Exposure

   freight, chemical and steel supply chains

   Vulnerability

   reliance on one waterway for bulk freight

   Capacity

   part-loading; rail and road diversion

   Cascade

   WAT → TRD → industry, ENE

   Horizon

   seasonal

3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-DEU-CLI-003

   Extreme heat

   Driver

   heatwaves and tropical nights

   Exposure

   older people; dense cities

   Vulnerability

   housing without cooling; isolation

   Capacity

   heat-health warnings; heat action plans

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE

   Horizon

   seasonal

4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-DEU-BIO-004

   Forest dieback under drought and pests

   Driver

   drought, heat and bark beetles

   Exposure

   spruce-dominated forests

   Vulnerability

   monocultures planted for cooler climates

   Capacity

   forest conversion programmes

   Cascade

   CLI → BIO → WAT, carbon

   Horizon

   5–30 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024.back
2. 10Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaanpassungsgesetz (KAnG). Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2023; in force 1 July 2024.back
3. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
4. 9Bundesregierung (ed.), Vorsorgende Klimaanpassungsstrategie der Bundesregierung. Berlin, December 2024.back
5. 25Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz und Katastrophenhilfe (ed.), Deutsche Strategie zur Stärkung der Resilienz gegenüber Katastrophen. BBK, Bonn, 2022.back
6. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
7. 40Bundestag (ed.), Gesetz zur Errichtung eines Sondervermögens Infrastruktur und Klimaneutralität. Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2025.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-DEU-HDR-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a dry winter and spring; low Alpine snowmelt; repeated heatwaves in July and August

Analogues

summers 2018 and 2022²⁴

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → WAT

   low rainfall and snowmelt cut Rhine and Elbe levels

   2018 · 2022

2. 2

   WAT → TRD

   barges sail part-loaded; freight costs rise

   2022²⁴

3. 3

   TRD → industry

   chemical and steel plants cut output for lack of inputs

   2018

4. 4

   CLI → HLT

   heat deaths among older people rise

   2022⁴

5. 5

   CLI → BIO

   forest fires and bark-beetle damage spread

   2018–2021²⁰

6. 6

   WAT → ENE

   cooling-water limits on thermal plants

   2018 · 2022

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-DEU-HDR-01 would travel through Germany’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Germany 2026, scenario SCN-DEU-HDR-01 (2026); Germany 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
2. 4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023.back
3. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back

6.1Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.2Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.3GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.4Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.5Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED
• IN CONSULTATION

6.6Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers statutory assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in Q1 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about Germany’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; statutory plans and assessments; official statistics; agency and insurance data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024.back
2. 40Bundestag (ed.), Gesetz zur Errichtung eines Sondervermögens Infrastruktur und Klimaneutralität. Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2025.back
3. 7Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2024 (AGEE-Stat). UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, 2025.back
4. 38European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal L 243, 9 July 2021.back
5. 11Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaschutzgesetz (KSG), as amended in 2024. Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin.back
6. 10Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaanpassungsgesetz (KAnG). Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2023; in force 1 July 2024.back
7. 9Bundesregierung (ed.), Vorsorgende Klimaanpassungsstrategie der Bundesregierung. Berlin, December 2024.back
8. 26Bundesregierung (ed.), Nationale Wasserstrategie. Berlin, March 2023.back
9. 25Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz und Katastrophenhilfe (ed.), Deutsche Strategie zur Stärkung der Resilienz gegenüber Katastrophen. BBK, Bonn, 2022.back
10. 3Expertenrat für Klimafragen (ed.), Prüfbericht zur Berechnung der deutschen Treibhausgasemissionen für das Jahr 2024. ERK, Berlin, 2025.back
11. 18C. A. Hallmann, M. Sorg, E. Jongejans et al., “More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas,” PLOS ONE, vol. 12, e0185809, 2017.back
12. 39F. Kreienkamp, S. Y. Philip, J. S. Tradowsky et al., Rapid attribution of heavy rainfall events leading to the severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021. World Weather Attribution, 2021.back
13. 27H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
14. 28J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
15. 30P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
16. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
17. 15Prognos, IÖW and GWS (eds.), Kosten durch Klimawandelfolgen in Deutschland. Report for BMWK and BMUV, Berlin, 2022.back
18. 1Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Treibhausgas-Emissionen in Deutschland 2024: Vorjahresschätzung. UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, March 2025.back
19. 8Deutscher Wetterdienst (ed.), Deutschlandwetter im Jahr 2024. DWD, Offenbach, December 2024.back
20. 12Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Nichtöffentliche und öffentliche Wasserversorgung und Abwasserentsorgung 2019. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2022.back
21. 6Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Bevölkerungsstand: Bevölkerung am 31.12.2024. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2025.back
22. 4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023.back
23. 5Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2023 und 2024. RKI, Berlin, 2024–2025.back
24. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
25. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
26. 16Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (ed.), “Abschaltung der letzten drei Kernkraftwerke am 15. April 2023.” BMWK, Berlin, 2023.back
27. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back
28. 21Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (ed.), Ergebnisse der Waldzustandserhebung 2024. BMEL, Berlin, 2025.back
29. 19Bundesamt für Naturschutz (ed.), Rote Listen gefährdeter Tiere, Pflanzen und Pilze Deutschlands. BfN, Bonn, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
30. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a hot, dry summer with low Rhine water travel through freight, industrial supply, power, forests and health at the same time?

   INI-DEU-HDR-01 · hot, dry Rhine summer; first output: dependency graph for the Rhine corridor.

2. A-02

   Where are small, steep catchments most exposed to flash floods like those of 2021, and how much warning do they get?

   INI-DEU-FLD-02 · flash-flood exposure; first output: exposure register by district.

3. A-03

   How would wider natural-hazard insurance change who carries flood and heavy-rain losses?

   INI-DEU-FIN-03 · cover and fiscal backstop; first output: loss-sharing table, 2002–2025.

4. A-04

   How much grid flexibility remains as coal exits and heating and transport electrify?

   INI-DEU-ENE-04 · grid flexibility; first output: flexibility margin analysis.

5. A-05

   What heat surge capacity exists for older people at home and in care?

   INI-DEU-HLT-05 · heat surge readiness; first output: surge baseline for five Länder.

6. A-06

   How are forests recovering after 2018–2021, and what does that mean for water and carbon?

   With GS-11 Biodiversity; first output: forest condition note.

7. A-07

   How do insect declines affect pollination and yields?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

Germany is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027, across the federation and the sixteen Länder. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   One National Agenda

   bounded national questions for the year

   DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

2. 02

   National Desk

   coordination, records, routing and continuity

   DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

3. 03

   National Model

   the country as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

4. 04

   National Portfolio

   risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

   7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

5. 05

   Foundry

   continuous computational environment

   PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-DEU-2027-Q1

6. 06

   Reports

   quarterly and annual publication

   BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

7. 07

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   after-action, correction and renewal

   OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-DEU-2027-01 · hot, dry Rhine summer

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
2. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
3. 21Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (ed.), Ergebnisse der Waldzustandserhebung 2024. BMEL, Berlin, 2025.back

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Germany’s water risk runs at both extremes: flash floods in small valleys and low water on the great rivers in dry summers.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-05 Finance
• GS-11 Biodiversity

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

The energy system was rebuilt under pressure: Russian gas replaced in 2022, nuclear closed in 2023, renewables above half of electricity in 2024.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-05 Finance
• GS-11 Biodiversity

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Germany is one of the EU’s largest agricultural producers. Dry years cut yields, and insect declines threaten pollination.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-05 Finance
• GS-11 Biodiversity

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Heat is Germany’s deadliest climate hazard in most years, and an ageing population raises exposure.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-05 Finance
• GS-11 Biodiversity

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Insect biomass has collapsed in protected areas, and drought and pests damaged half a million hectares of forest in four years.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-05 Finance
• GS-11 Biodiversity

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
2. 12Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Nichtöffentliche und öffentliche Wasserversorgung und Abwasserentsorgung 2019. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2022.back
3. 26Bundesregierung (ed.), Nationale Wasserstrategie. Berlin, March 2023.back
4. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
5. 7Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2024 (AGEE-Stat). UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, 2025.back
6. 16Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (ed.), “Abschaltung der letzten drei Kernkraftwerke am 15. April 2023.” BMWK, Berlin, 2023.back
7. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
8. 1Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Treibhausgas-Emissionen in Deutschland 2024: Vorjahresschätzung. UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, March 2025.back
9. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
10. 22Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (ed.), Statistisches Jahrbuch über Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten 2024. BMEL, Berlin, 2024.back
11. 18C. A. Hallmann, M. Sorg, E. Jongejans et al., “More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas,” PLOS ONE, vol. 12, e0185809, 2017.back
12. 4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023.back
13. 8Deutscher Wetterdienst (ed.), Deutschlandwetter im Jahr 2024. DWD, Offenbach, December 2024.back
14. 5Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2023 und 2024. RKI, Berlin, 2024–2025.back
15. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back
16. 21Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (ed.), Ergebnisse der Waldzustandserhebung 2024. BMEL, Berlin, 2025.back
17. 19Bundesamt für Naturschutz (ed.), Rote Listen gefährdeter Tiere, Pflanzen und Pilze Deutschlands. BfN, Bonn, retrieved 2026-09-30.back

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID

MDL-DEU-NATIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent Germany as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

national scale; not for Land, plant or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-DEU-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

40 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-DEU-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• Natural hazards report¹³, cover rates
• Heat mortality reports⁴⁵, estimation method
• Water statistics¹², abstraction survey
• Forest damage survey²⁰, satellite method

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at Global Risks Forum (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition, greenhouse-gas emissions

Construct

annual greenhouse-gas emissions in Germany, excluding land use

Unit

Mt CO₂e

Scope

Climate Change Act perimeter

Source

UBA provisional estimate¹

Revision

replaced by the final inventory

Known limits

excludes emissions embodied in imports

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Treibhausgas-Emissionen in Deutschland 2024: Vorjahresschätzung. UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, March 2025.back
2. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
3. 3Expertenrat für Klimafragen (ed.), Prüfbericht zur Berechnung der deutschen Treibhausgasemissionen für das Jahr 2024. ERK, Berlin, 2025.back
4. 13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024.back
5. 4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023.back
6. 5Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2023 und 2024. RKI, Berlin, 2024–2025.back
7. 12Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Nichtöffentliche und öffentliche Wasserversorgung und Abwasserentsorgung 2019. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2022.back
8. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD

B.3Regional reading, the Länder by region

Map plates for each Land follow in Q2 2027. This page gives the regional reading in table form, and ranks no Land.

B.4Atlas card, the Ahr valley and the Rhine corridor

• catchment
• waterway
• industrial corridor
• district

Systems in view

water, infrastructure, industry, health

Defining events

July 2021 Ahr flood, 135 deaths¹⁴; low Rhine water in 2018 and 2022²⁴

Couplings

CLI → WAT → INF flash floods; WAT → TRD low water; TRD → industry inputs

Capability evidence

reconstruction after 2021; part-loading and diversion in low water

Gaps

warning reach in small catchments; freight alternatives

Agenda items

A-01 · A-02 · A-03

B.5Germany system card

The card through which Germany appears in the Europe regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

high-income federal republic with an export-led industrial base

Population

83.6 million (end 2024)⁶

Emissions

48% below 1990 (2024)¹

Electricity

about 54% renewable (2024)⁷

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-DEU-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Treibhausgas-Emissionen in Deutschland 2024: Vorjahresschätzung. UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, March 2025.back
2. 11Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaschutzgesetz (KSG), as amended in 2024. Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin.back
3. 7Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2024 (AGEE-Stat). UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, 2025.back
4. 8Deutscher Wetterdienst (ed.), Deutschlandwetter im Jahr 2024. DWD, Offenbach, December 2024.back
5. 4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023.back
6. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
7. 15Prognos, IÖW and GWS (eds.), Kosten durch Klimawandelfolgen in Deutschland. Report for BMWK and BMUV, Berlin, 2022.back
8. 13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024.back
9. 12Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Nichtöffentliche und öffentliche Wasserversorgung und Abwasserentsorgung 2019. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2022.back
10. 6Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Bevölkerungsstand: Bevölkerung am 31.12.2024. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2025.back
11. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
12. 18C. A. Hallmann, M. Sorg, E. Jongejans et al., “More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas,” PLOS ONE, vol. 12, e0185809, 2017.back
13. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back
14. 3Expertenrat für Klimafragen (ed.), Prüfbericht zur Berechnung der deutschen Treibhausgasemissionen für das Jahr 2024. ERK, Berlin, 2025.back
15. 5Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2023 und 2024. RKI, Berlin, 2024–2025.back
16. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
17. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
18. 9Bundesregierung (ed.), Vorsorgende Klimaanpassungsstrategie der Bundesregierung. Berlin, December 2024.back

C.140 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Treibhausgas-Emissionen in Deutschland 2024: Vorjahresschätzung. UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, March 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in chapter 6
3. 3Expertenrat für Klimafragen (ed.), Prüfbericht zur Berechnung der deutschen Treibhausgasemissionen für das Jahr 2024. ERK, Berlin, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
4. 4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2023 und 2024. RKI, Berlin, 2024–2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Bevölkerungsstand: Bevölkerung am 31.12.2024. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
7. 7Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2024 (AGEE-Stat). UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8Deutscher Wetterdienst (ed.), Deutschlandwetter im Jahr 2024. DWD, Offenbach, December 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9Bundesregierung (ed.), Vorsorgende Klimaanpassungsstrategie der Bundesregierung. Berlin, December 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
10. 10Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaanpassungsgesetz (KAnG). Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2023; in force 1 July 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
11. 11Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaschutzgesetz (KSG), as amended in 2024. Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
12. 12Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Nichtöffentliche und öffentliche Wasserversorgung und Abwasserentsorgung 2019. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
14. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
15. 15Prognos, IÖW and GWS (eds.), Kosten durch Klimawandelfolgen in Deutschland. Report for BMWK and BMUV, Berlin, 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
16. 16Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (ed.), “Abschaltung der letzten drei Kernkraftwerke am 15. April 2023.” BMWK, Berlin, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
17. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18C. A. Hallmann, M. Sorg, E. Jongejans et al., “More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas,” PLOS ONE, vol. 12, e0185809, 2017. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19Bundesamt für Naturschutz (ed.), Rote Listen gefährdeter Tiere, Pflanzen und Pilze Deutschlands. BfN, Bonn, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (ed.), Ergebnisse der Waldzustandserhebung 2024. BMEL, Berlin, 2025. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
22. 22Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (ed.), Statistisches Jahrbuch über Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten 2024. BMEL, Berlin, 2024. Cited in chapter 8
23. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
24. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
25. 25Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz und Katastrophenhilfe (ed.), Deutsche Strategie zur Stärkung der Resilienz gegenüber Katastrophen. BBK, Bonn, 2022. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
26. 26Bundesregierung (ed.), Nationale Wasserstrategie. Berlin, March 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
27. 27H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
28. 28J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010.
30. 30P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
31. 31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. WMO, Geneva, March 2026.
32. 32S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
33. 33S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
34. 34S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
35. 35S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026, AI and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
36. 36S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
37. 37S. Valadbaygi (ed.), France Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
38. 38European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal L 243, 9 July 2021. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39F. Kreienkamp, S. Y. Philip, J. S. Tradowsky et al., Rapid attribution of heavy rainfall events leading to the severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021. World Weather Attribution, 2021. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
40. 40Bundestag (ed.), Gesetz zur Errichtung eines Sondervermögens Infrastruktur und Klimaneutralität. Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2025. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version