Nexus Reports atKey T
GCRI
Technical truth, key T. GCRI publishes every edition and holds the technical truth key.
Static view: the interactive globe runs where this page's scripts and WebGL can; every edition is also listed on this page.
Nexus Reports · Global Risk Forum
The Reports pillar · Public meaning, key M
Where every output of the Nexus programme is published, in every format, with its sources, its status and its corrections. GRF holds the public meaning of every edition: what a finding means for governance, diplomacy and public trust, and how it is said without overreach. It brings what its councils, dialogues and working groups learn into the series.
Filter by region, theme, year and the formats on this site. Each edition opens its outputs, where they came from and how to cite them. An edition is published only when it is deposited with its DOI; until then it stays in stewardship review.
On this siteAt release, with the signed bundle and its DOINot recorded for this edition
Outputs
Provenance
Cite as · NR-CIT-1
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change.
Nexus Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit
Publication recordOutputs
Provenance
Cite as · NR-CIT-1
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Canada Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems.
Nexus Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit
Publication recordOutputs
Provenance
Cite as · NR-CIT-1
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus United States Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems.
Nexus Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit
Publication recordOutputs
Provenance
Cite as · NR-CIT-1
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus United Kingdom Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems.
Nexus Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit
Publication recordOutputs
Provenance
Cite as · NR-CIT-1
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus France Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems.
Nexus Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit
Publication recordOutputs
Provenance
Cite as · NR-CIT-1
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Germany Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems.
Nexus Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit
Publication recordOutputs
Provenance
Cite as · NR-CIT-1
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Italy Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems.
Nexus Reports series · Edition 2026–2030 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit
Publication recordOutputs
Provenance
Cite as · NR-CIT-1
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Global Water Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition: The State of the World’s Water System.
Nexus Reports series · Global Sector Series GS-01 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit
Publication recordOutputs
Provenance
Cite as · NR-CIT-1
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Strategic Systems Report 2026, Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk, Baseline Edition.
Nexus Reports series · Strategic Systems Series SR-01 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit
Publication recordOutputs
Provenance
Cite as · NR-CIT-1
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Exponential Technology Report 2026, Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition.
Nexus Reports series · Exponential Technology Series XT-01 · Baseline Edition 2026 · v1.0.0 · GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 · NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 · DOI at deposit
Publication record10 drafted editions, ordered by family and code, never by value. 76 more Baseline Edition 2026 editions are in preparation and have no outputs yet; they are listed on the programme board.
The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change, the global baseline
Abstract
The world enters 2027 more than 1.4 °C warmer than in the late nineteenth century. 2024 was the warmest year on record at 1.55 °C and 2025 the second or third warmest at 1.43 °C; the eleven years 2015–2025 are the eleven warmest observed [1]. Natural disasters caused US$224 billion in losses in 2025, of which US$108 billion was insured, the sixth successive year above US$100 billion insured, driven by floods, storms and wildfires rather than one peak event [2]. Energy-related emissions reached a record 37.8 Gt CO₂ in 2024 [4]; about 673 million people faced hunger [7]; monitored wildlife populations fell by 73% on average between 1970 and 2020 [9]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the global water, energy, food, health and biodiversity system, maps the couplings through which shocks travel between regions and sectors, and sets the questions the 2027 global edition will answer from national, regional and sector evidence. It ranks no country. It establishes where the evidence stands, what remains uncertain and what to watch.
Headline finding
Insurers covered about 48% of the US$224 billion in natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa.
Implication
The protection gap is widest where exposure is growing fastest and fiscal space is thinnest. Uninsured losses become household debt, delayed reconstruction and pressure on public budgets, which feed back into vulnerability before the next event [2] [13] [18].
Every edition assesses the same five core systems and the twenty couplings between them, at its own scale. Read together, they show where shocks travel, where they loop back and amplify, and where national context changes the picture.
Strong in every drafted edition at this scale (11): WAT → ENE, WAT → FOO, WAT → HLT, WAT → BIO, ENE → FOO, ENE → HLT, FOO → WAT, FOO → HLT, FOO → BIO, BIO → WAT, BIO → FOO
Strong in every drafted edition at this scale (11): WAT → ENE, WAT → FOO, WAT → HLT, WAT → BIO, ENE → FOO, ENE → HLT, FOO → WAT, FOO → HLT, FOO → BIO, BIO → WAT, BIO → FOO
Strong in every drafted edition at this scale (11): WAT → ENE, WAT → FOO, WAT → HLT, WAT → BIO, ENE → FOO, ENE → HLT, FOO → WAT, FOO → HLT, FOO → BIO, BIO → WAT, BIO → FOO
Strong in every drafted edition at this scale (8): WAT → FOO, WAT → BIO, ENE → FOO, ENE → HLT, FOO → HLT, FOO → BIO, BIO → WAT, BIO → FOO
Reinforcing loops · 3 pairs
Where a shock enters one system of a loop it returns amplified through the other; these are the pairs the 2027 stress tests read first. Pairs not listed carry at least one direction rated moderate or weak in every edition.
Where the editions differ · 3 of 20
The other 17 couplings carry the same strength in all 10 editions. Strong everywhere: WAT → FOO, WAT → BIO, ENE → FOO, ENE → HLT, FOO → HLT, FOO → BIO, BIO → WAT, BIO → FOO. Strengths are Nexus estimates (◆ ESTIMATED) from cited evidence and analogue events; a word, never a score.
The twenty couplings
| From, to | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | varies | Str | varies | Str |
| ENE | Mod | · | Str | Str | Mod |
| FOO | varies | Wea | · | Str | Str |
| HLT | Wea | Wea | Mod | · | Wea |
| BIO | Str | Mod | Str | Mod | · |
One reading at a time. Each lens is a projection of the edition's reviewed findings, never a separate argument.
For most people global risk arrives as a price rise, a heat wave or a flood, and its burden depends on where they live. The baseline asks that public debate weigh the couplings and the distribution of losses, not a list of separate threats.
For most Canadians risk arrives as a smoke-filled summer, a flooded basement or a higher premium. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, so that public debate is about the couplings, and about who carries the uninsured share.
For most Americans risk arrives as a smoke-filled summer, a power cut in a heat wave or a non-renewed home policy. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that public debate weigh who carries the losses insurance no longer covers.
For most people risk arrives as a heatwave in a home built for cold, a flooded street or a hosepipe ban. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that debate weigh who carries the costs of flooding as cover changes.
For most people risk arrives as a heatwave, a cracked wall or a water restriction. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that public debate weigh how the CatNat regime shares costs as claims rise.
For most people risk arrives as a flooded valley, a heatwave or an energy bill. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that public debate weigh who carries flood losses when nearly half of homes are uninsured.
For most people risk arrives as a heatwave, a flooded street or a crack after an earthquake. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that public debate weigh who carries the losses when fewer than one home in ten is insured.
For most people water risk arrives as a dry tap, a flooded street or a higher food price. The baseline asks that public debate treat water as shared infrastructure for health, food and energy, and that the 2.2 billion without safe water stay at its centre.
For most people global risk arrives as a price rise, a heat wave or a flood, and its burden depends on where they live. The baseline asks that public debate weigh the couplings and the distribution of losses, not a list of separate threats.
For most people AI arrives as a tool at work, a change in a job or a new data centre nearby. The baseline asks that public debate weigh the physical and social footprint of AI, power, water, work and access, alongside its benefits.
Filter by family; each row opens the finding at its anchor. The observatory holds all 120 findings with filters by status and system.
Every drafted edition, ordered by family and code, never by value.
6 drafted countries editions.
2 drafted global and sector editions.
1 drafted strategic edition.
1 drafted technology edition.
Nexus Foundry builds and seals the evidence, Nexus Universe tests it in the annual programme, Nexus Standards codifies it, Nexus Reports publishes it and Risk Academy teaches it. These are the handoffs into and out of Reports.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Nexus Universe to Nexus Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Nexus Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Nexus Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Nexus Reports to Nexus Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Nexus Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |
Programme yearAll phases
Route
Around Nexus Reports
The pillars Nexus Reports hands work to and receives it from.
L · F · U · S · R · A
and 12 more
The pillars through the programme year, with the Reports edition of each quarter
| Pillar | Q1 · State and Agenda | Q2 · Evidence and Build | Q3 · Stress Test and Readiness | Q4 · Annual Synthesis and Renewal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labs | Opens the year's experiments on the questions the mandate names | Runs prototypes in short cycles; hands reproducible ones to the Foundry | Tests ideas alongside Action Week; records what failed and why | Writes up every experiment; proposes next year's questions |
| Foundry | Opens cycle projects; National Portfolio baseline | Qualifies sources; one-month controlled build | Runs simulations in Action Week; releases temporary capacity | Supplies data bundles; registers capability gaps |
| Universe | Annual mandate (G0) | Missions admitted (G1), qualified (G2), build accepted (G3) | Action Week (G4), stand-down, evidence sealed (G5) | Publication authorised (G6), renewal (G7) |
| Standards | Routes missions to standards | Composes profiles; validates the build | Monitors conformance; findings become proposals | Council review; adopted changes published |
| Reports | State and Agenda edition | Evidence and Build edition | Stress Test and Readiness edition | Annual Synthesis, the flagship |
| Academy | Pathways open; cohorts enrol | Qualification courses; learning on the build | Exercise assessments; completion records | Course revisions; next cohorts open |
A correction is a new version with a published notice. The log lists each edition's versions and notices from its own publication record.
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition's current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLB | NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
| CAN | NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
| USA | NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
| GBR | NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
| FRA | NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
| DEU | NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
| ITA | NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
| GS-01 | NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
| SR-01 | NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
| XT-01 | NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence. How corrections work
86 Baseline Edition 2026 editions in five families and seventeen series. Drafted editions open here; the rest are in preparation, wave by wave, and named where the programme names them.
Drafted, in stewardship reviewIn preparation
Call for contributions · GW-GRF
Researchers, practitioners, public bodies, companies, communities and students can contribute through Global Risk Forum. Material received before the next evidence cut is reviewed for that edition by the key that owns its subject, and credited if it is used.
Anything sent through a gateway or a Zenodo community request gets one record, one screening, one review by the key that owns its subject and a decision with a reason.
Evidence, a case, a correction, a method, a review, a translation or input to a profile: anyone can contribute, with or without an account.
One contribution through the gateway or Zenodo to a credited, citable record.
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record.
Sources: Nexus Reports governance at Global Risk Forum (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Nexus Reports deposits (2026); ORCID, contributor identifiers (2026).
Say what it is, where its record is kept and on which licence. It arrives tagged with this page, its area and its gateway, so it reaches the editor who owns it.
Your email opens with the subject and a template already filled in for GW-GRF.
Never send personal data or sensitive infrastructure detail. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights.
Press play to run the quarterly release step by step, in the five pillar lanes, or select a step to read it.
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
Nexus Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Nexus Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site's.
The quarterly release in the five pillar lanes: what Foundry and Universe hand to Reports, what Reports seals, reviews, signs, deposits and publishes, and what returns to Standards.
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record.
Sources: Nexus Reports governance at Global Risk Forum (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Nexus Reports deposits (2026).
Every edition is published on all five sites and read through each institution's lens; each site has its own gateway into the next edition.
Technical truth, key T. GCRI publishes every edition and holds the technical truth key.
Capital meaning, key F. Global Risk Alliance holds the capital-meaning key; country, sector and strategic editions carry its finance lens.
Standards and regulatory watch. Nexus Standards reviews the standards each edition applies; sector and technology editions read most against them.
Literature and evidence review. Risk Academy teaches what the editions find; country, sector and technology editions feed its curriculum.
Nexus Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.