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F5\/s9XCNR1uN\/AxTKs3WvWkdlU7cCiV5Zv5L+e+Iz8kNRstXuIBMKEoNJuW9iBEaiBD7GUrJUA8K54DZlvngEyrwjEkdxY4yR02YTXK5RtRVWEND6RpPmTI+ZAi50O\/cgcSQq4Bw6BQKsFvYE+WbGhpDJOInEljC5g7DH0mjmkzwx5b0QnTmsAs0b9QQYMnwLRFrUoOPbPsfIPzwCkoA6uJ7T8lig+dB0LIiZjRQ3YWOEmJn8WbklDLKd42uTG6\/2PkqThEnuDVQjspPSXyIyCIZ6WHPcxpkjF0PaaaB2cpqGcvpG0b3Gv212tvY2leAhYhsyjMeAgniT1C0rUaJms1Klur4UvWaoRXY8GoRwJNRgXuxaxB4k23GhVQO\/2mo2Z64Omq550LDa\/ghTvUDo\/HqZqTm3mYEQyHMWUfuLY43brM4MYVY+L6QrFEkDAdzsg477r3V6bf\/otKLrzB+gkMQEXuPULGOfR2h9oYUHkXn8YrgJTrT7OdwqmE2hinE2MgElIEgK\/XmxOSKk1P9GSWYi44bewjaZof1cY+isY+po3Neh+Fg+k5FQ1GcBTWtG3V23r9W7OJfzZ+40t4ctwEXUYRimJMrq+d6OnwzmlxfLiOwLjM+72Vp\/tnz6CKsOsOtdvOXjfZ6F31YHuht9408zqVz7JKuvq3QkN5oXEL0bPG+qcXGOtnmWAJqHGyR8gsAfqJRIdZ72TbXP8EopEd+L5QOnzO9GVFA33rMLXQZz9BP\/eUmuEZTpV0clYR\/T6lMTvx3QmnKBeRNcmUgKVftc9S\/fAZdFOZjy0\/06ePyaEj2nE+Gnvq0cgiTdM6ihKoWACVqGf1K07+Yw+p3VMtwitfS4\/2BduSEAYjw6aex0VvU8iDzIiCeZyOYUGa5uIoTMawkCsT9hZ9XjXueX28yj2Wcdox6PY916d8iLmjnyUq5g6A8l1v\/GxjUWUBaAGVSzph4AJKBTMaKdtEIi+AqsCyoi2WxRyFUYGCSrOwEDO2e+Myuev\/f9CTnJdHLTim+EJZ\/FhpPXfcGcLmY4VujblhJhoVC3H7IFhrAg\/KQQFJHzmhmOYs348KaWF8UzzmD9WofBC2FTnQCY0mUp3lk14PibEJv169VFnGbIT7elqSQTGlQ+WTU9WCg3A\/4\/GUNE2aHbhp4mbi92i\/1+orXKmgdCt6P4aWDzZHxfGWN9HsmzlFG5ENm485QEZiRa3n2rdUx1450yGSW\/6Zunl9h1YOnUd51K1XfI+EEOVE1pChDqp9XZz+u8af9Jrr1+gipBGrgUstnaM2kqsbVo5tgLAZ5gZW3m8M3ipVX+qo9nV62Prt36iN3tPFNK51meU7VuTEyQfTysHbw4UXIS6siKVgvmDLgmhOK5XkgvCxnd+HXP4YssaC\/4GdP6w\/SpHgL65hXwhNe+NXvBqS5CFXpPGrNO6Npcq9sQANfP1XaC55l7YqBI16683xtiCDV9AIWAJ5C418ncavm0cp1sBgMynrV30o5BYz+c6CkIyEKJOxKW4t1YXrGFjQ\/84Y+mMFp+OEASCfw4iylYieWQmL+I2Ij7veeiU3CG1EHFCtN5zkFgAfZYDPKhcg33pVCRKrBCReASR\/a0AhFXqafbqiOR+UMlSXWirhOytgUL5LPTqjnnSyxUYcei7T0BolgNky0IlK3ONKrXLwNa4fZEIL2D69IyshlV5yGAqJxWUD0U1DOoL1mqA4lHanBXk\/nQxopIVAU9OdssunJDn4gzsJlb4kcgd1xip6GCxyJxpu0+RcO6yjdg3Vtai36K\/XiAOjhuoLnBx2kbIiNznzTGYOLeg\/mBv29VovBVS5SbTGXR5AX1t21OHsNI13o17b12Ea7dLV4IU30lvDr9L99pTlls42ihMSH81Wd1fC\/Ua0\/ZNUkFWLHLBL\/6kJGVTu0ISEoa1CTThw+HuE\/IRXPxHfZFTzE0vLRo5LTB\/WKHXdlVNUaAmlGuUIoUPfQAY+p7++YBFM8YxApRyoZM9\/a1U1tzWWwuWKpdq72LZC0OwpTVW0tS1A\/i\/hm0LVVLR09CUtZ0iP8u5tCtgTx7YqIsyXpQqzdUmaJc09ONQjybfwLlAFU4b0vxWh06e7bS0AIY+OqO\/UjmsgB8kd09drFZ9YQmhouQlp6FLPkVstERvX62zXSbjkvdgsLaGDLyPsY0IrT5KS\/OS1VEfjEh1V5isAhsCp5wG718bbiqqd9D\/VsC\/qqIHqEch\/De7uArosaKxEwHfcSeZnyU\/QvGQ504fCyuER9FfdTCTvpjawbqkGyQOiyj+WmKfCiMYxWKcSEHSkKwmvUAYFLt\/KQhHGqTVrkw1QMEI\/xwj97eOxPEkNpoxBEIrJi6TmsKZZUiU\/Zl6gjJEgvGVr42WfV94u8CrUFgVTyaay+jatW\/C1WGSWCkYjtF6nL2oIrxbbJoqSTlWTaZi2Wz5dgdGwK8q+0yiyXL8RDIdiX45xpbtIrmziWVIWD6CUy\/yFczvOz+04jqDDfuX4\/e2Nkl\/scXFJE2lFyvqLCmw1owxbCSGjDvdoleLWCIxD5ZqSxFJpiSLpUtzlKKoiZ5mJLMK9tLWD3len3\/vq6Eb\/54OC5JHwBjj9CpFTjifKIkZ0ES4iaqYOpRbOteERLUoESwPhXqsv6JOEvJA+o8wbREdgxpFW5gXxpU2mqVNRJhE9kw\/ydT3RxCUiZp56j7QLAZFbcmGw4MJdUH6CBDEXr27JbTarr6dah2hfndUvG1zXOntfHYxhonrmRHKbwboLDcMRkCT0eUgupCo4VR+3dO2iMcQHoHLmw\/tMWg3+NQzmWqtxq\/8COiP1wLSojzTr58+4PoYx3h61AKhl6s2u3AP56j6gXkVxHrxa7usm2FMYBTaNY9cfSR77GLqx+MUiy6biJ+ei4ueEssi1RWUbgnX76XvwFxJO\/Z0dmmnVwS2iL1BQs0xBXeaGx0+rPX9bP51TBQlHPSk5maVExM1iDWAWpcSLzxgIxB14U28iqoSsUe6OzMYRjceB57SNw9dKFNoSHN2W7MhNR7\/kHqERTXXgLust2VYw2glUPFErnojoKtY7Yf1nJqKooU+fkb3yxj9JPp7xdRHU4iX2Vu4Ss9vPFCeKVWFwW4GE04Z6ukSNtrWpcpUR1Cc9hITE7zX7UtH+PnCoalJ+EuOekSe1ADfoC9dioV+YyTMJfwJDvvh4ndMjNHX1ff2p0n2bKydmuz8fvlLXawwDdYfaEyEkdVXbeOSJb7EnvArVETVTdjcjTXOWGaxnqbF+Bshiy2CGJ7zibwDIZYxOcv9sR6j1q8K8i3UWWtpHwr3TPrcYfq7bQn\/VIfJJeTUfjXSw\/zOjG0+kaT5lMHlKYfKkwuRPvBprfypWLAHOdLEhRENv4vrhK\/1EJONJ3e8UJV09751\/TF4WMXC409tCmES5w0UCkx2BAtz16ojM8OokVyc1sV13Ph5tj\/xn401CnAv1NmPtRHq8y2OKwhQFCR7BaYXbHHZa6JSje9oUnN03mxET+767w2FXQAzp3WLYx\/NG2C5+UXjzRTVD6qrEvdfUW32FvN+SpnmbLdotLNpFStlp7zZbuJJTat7nfL1WywuSJwd+x2eTH\/JnPuT8F4Di54yxlPTJz69MoYB405VRDRYtFRiYNfBoqtCaWCxyF+rJ9hwY1Tk7slIonHNGdU81i\/bOgbPx8+IucaTEL9WDZj121E35n8ekb2qX9TwmvFPlTxGZ9pLxg2NanDC6CyGHQBQI30FX3VsppeNUJm01FYcoGNMDOwqyXcqSbXrGSEB7D6xfNoRICk5cc6POMoYWY3Z0ls4yTlt0KTljvZiVnoBFU0JkcWnHpUcXacCMrKUqsKXzIa0Mf9gRoZeM9RHG+siOvHT2j3ysp1TzaO8xWYYpI8gH845BJwPqgPfvhKKMctxmsRjlAczJmGhjHIDfs+6r8ogwBbKcKVCa9Xu0r2R8Wa\/hRWp9L90KQvTwpeQBvgvtSPcXlIsc2yHwMZelcpH4W8S95JTKAaCzxGHUB79oPhUwveofYEbw+OkHI3TtwAuiRmxD8+2aY0WPONEDcicfRkRAVAb6KR9\/4lgGigBeoPOp8ymJ6u0gaAi1kcedL9O\/SiDbd+45fQ0WHy6UMSxalBbiqYyurAKRWRVMIuHk48oSE2FyFnI6zx4ymDrOcoGSEVAl2EYIDxoP4eRz6oi5iFba\/J34jXP1LMfJVcrKtdUG5GGhZGsO5ECFY3\/pXJIiMFk15BtigYSWIh0Azn0sjFPOv8HHKOCHTc7tq2pJqJRVVF1n+BJzdJerCrt2pzkeLOawqXbuAGkP42Vht1UQI16+wYLRyKO1VDO3wy2He+XsVCxCgZK1EgsFrvlbih2O5vm0G8+5lQPVa8vJrhzKLNdri5RRbLNJHca9ZP\/\/IU4u0MUfRHGk9LosiKwRR64rRifaNKUdDK9ELRAO\/oAdIPZnh\/8WGMt\/ilBONY7yj+ycdFkepa2CXXLIq1zyp3v+qTsO5r7wVkx113tXDK+KruAyaFg4g++i9ZKSzV0gQZFeM2xv0Nh6KVFWvOErp9eM0JVIDM\/yG8I5S03i9AdOlVEAng9L8L2JQ88C52Ofp0lA7iQMImbxQ4VgZA6tzLDBV5qLbTRK2OU4TdWRQuWy46RM+TLnoHP5o2MyL9Nl37vs7F2xzp5D83GyPK1WRQD+mEZB7ZhrbKTjMWhtIF1CmVhqU5\/u\/tpwwV+2skxkTXiXoJOoKEOLg+HRywyvblhZriY1LZO+f+S4sxonasK\/RkXcGrdPo1EUTENU42TAswaQnuQkDKkVWb5Na8FQBA2F1oii4yNBY2qAtSQxBdRSApFssppKU4gkFMfX8O3o64Go9nxbfJOWN\/XWih5\/oCW+x8tb6vL0NkpbXw8cd3a8D3h0w57f\/Pzwcdm5YhXomy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\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class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The State of the United Kingdom\u2019s Interdependent Systems<\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GBR<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Country Systems Risk and Resilience<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">United Kingdom 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\">The State of the United Kingdom\u2019s Interdependent Systems<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). United Kingdom <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom\u2019s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. Britain\u2019s risk is coupled, not cumulative<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Hot, dry summer in southern England<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Lenses and readings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/\">United Kingdom 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>15 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>The United Kingdom enters 2027 having cut its territorial emissions by 53% since 1990, to 373 Mt CO\u2082e in 2024, and closed its last coal-fired power station in September 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup>. Its climate risks have moved from projection to record. 2022 was the first year with a UK mean temperature above 10 \u00b0C, and temperatures reached 40.3 \u00b0C on 19 July 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup>; about 2,985 heat-associated deaths were recorded in England that summer<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>. About 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, potentially rising to around 8 million by 2050<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>, and England faces a public water-supply shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without action<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>, and studied species have declined in abundance by 19% on average since 1970<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">373 Mt CO\u2082e in 2024, 53% below 1990.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Where do emissions stand?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">2022 was the first year above 10 \u00b0C; 40.3 \u00b0C was recorded in July 2022.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is the climate already changing?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Older people and those with chronic illness; about 2,985 heat-associated deaths in England in 2022.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Who is most exposed to heat?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 6.3 million properties in England, potentially 8 million by 2050.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How large is flood exposure?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">England faces a shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without action.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is water supply secure?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How dependent is food on imports?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Species abundance down 19% on average since 1970.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How is nature faring?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A hot, dry summer loading health, water, rail and power at once. SCN-GBR-HDS-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will Q1 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 6.3 million properties in England, roughly one in four, are in areas at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea or surface water, potentially rising to around 8 million by 2050.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-fig1-t\">Properties at flood risk in England (million)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Today<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"78.8\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">6.3<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">By 2050 (projection)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">\u22488<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: Environment Agency, NaFRA2 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">Surface-water flooding now drives most exposure and is the hardest to defend against with walls and barriers. As Flood Re moves towards risk-reflective pricing by 2039<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup>, affordability and cover in the most exposed homes become a fiscal and household question<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">68.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>population, mid-2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">373<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mt CO\u2082e<\/span><p>emissions, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10.03<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">\u00b0C<\/span><p>mean temperature, 2022 record<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224860<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of food produced domestically<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">89<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">risks<\/span><p>in the National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-register\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A maintained record of identified risks with their owners, assessments, controls and actions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Register<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">61<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">risks and opportunities<\/span><p>in CCRA3<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports a coupled reading of British risk.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people risk arrives as a heatwave in a home built for cold, a flooded street or a hosepipe ban.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Weather claims are high, flood cover rests on a transitional scheme until 2039, and the clean-power transition needs grid investment.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>The UK has cut emissions fast and observes its risks well, but adaptation lags.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the state of the United Kingdom\u2019s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in 2026, the dependencies between them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets the questions the operational series will answer.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a national <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">risk assessment<\/a>, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any department, devolved government, regulator or company. Competent authorities across the four nations keep every mandate they hold.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), \u201cEnd of coal power\u201d, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Met Office (ed.), \u201cRecord high temperatures verified\u201d (40.3 \u00b0C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Met Office (ed.), \u201c2022: the UK\u2019s warmest year on record.\u201d Met Office, Exeter, January 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h21\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.surface.coastal-erosion\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Erosion and sediment movement\" data-td=\"Retreat of the shoreline and cliffs under waves, currents and storms, removing land and exposing buildings.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H21\" data-tr=\"draft\">Coastal Erosion<\/a> Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2023. ONS, Newport, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Cabinet Office (ed.), National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-register\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A maintained record of identified risks with their owners, assessments, controls and actions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Register<\/a> 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cs-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK\u2019s Third Climate Change <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Assessment<\/a> (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/\">United Kingdom 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Britain\u2019s risk is coupled, not cumulative<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no nation or region.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is Canada\u2019s risk concentrated, and in which <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?<\/li><li>Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?<\/li><li>What must the 2027 programme measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>The United Kingdom\u2019s climate risks are usually discussed one at a time: a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\">heatwave<\/a>, a flood, a drought, a storm. This baseline reads them as one coupled system. On 19 July 2022 temperatures reached 40.3 \u00b0C for the first time<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup>; the same summer brought drought, hosepipe bans, grassland fires and rail speed restrictions, and about 2,985 heat-associated deaths in England<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The forcing is already measurable. 2022 was the first year with a UK mean temperature above 10 \u00b0C<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup>, and the third climate <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">risk assessment<\/a> identified 61 risks and opportunities from <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a>, eight of them priorities for action<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. The Climate Change Committee has repeatedly found adaptation planning behind the pace of risk<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Water sits at the centre of the coupling. About 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, potentially around 8 million by 2050<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>, while England faces a public water-supply shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without new action<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. Storm overflows spilled more than 460,000 times in 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>, linking heavy rain to river quality and health.<\/p><p>The energy system has changed fastest. Territorial emissions fell to 373 Mt CO\u2082e in 2024, 53% below 1990, and the last coal-fired power station closed in September 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup>. The Clean Power 2030 plan sets out a largely clean electricity system by the end of the decade<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>. Electrification makes the grid more central, and its single points of failure more consequential, as the substation fire that closed Heathrow in March 2025 showed<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Food and nature carry slower but deeper exposures. The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes, so import and energy-price shocks pass quickly to households<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>. Studied species have declined in abundance by 19% on average since 1970, and one in six is at risk of extinction in Great Britain<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>, weakening the ecosystems that regulate floods and water quality.<\/p><p>This edition therefore treats British risk as a property of couplings, between heat, water, grids, food and nature, rather than a list of separate hazards. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask where a shock travels next and who holds the capability to stop it.<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-fig1-t\">How far have UK emissions fallen? Territorial emissions (Mt CO\u2082e)<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Emissions have more than halved since 1990, driven by the power sector. Transport is now the largest emitting sector, about 30% of the total<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">1990<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">790<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2023<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"48.6\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">384<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2024<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"47.2\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">373<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u221253<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>since 1990<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22123<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>2024 against 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2024<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Sept<\/span><p>last coal power station closed<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2030<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">target<\/span><p>clean power plan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The United Kingdom matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">cooling \u00b7 hydro in Scotland<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation \u00b7 rain-fed yield<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">drinking water<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">flows \u00b7 wetlands<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping \u00b7 treatment<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fuel \u00b7 fertiliser \u00b7 cold chain<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">facility power \u00b7 cooling<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">reservoirs \u00b7 land use<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">withdrawals \u00b7 nutrients<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">biofuel feedstock<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition \u00b7 food safety<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour \u00b7 disease<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regulation \u00b7 filtration<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fire on lines \u00b7 biomass<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination \u00b7 soils<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses \u00b7 smoke<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Heat and drought strain supply and river quality while health demand peaks.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> summer 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 INF \u2192 DAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A single substation failure halts an airport and dependent services.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> Heathrow, March 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Surface-water flooding lands on households with costly cover.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> NaFRA2<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Energy and import prices pass into food prices.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> 2022 price shock<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">WAT \u2192 BIO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Storm overflows and low flows degrade rivers.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2023 spills<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.4<\/span><span>Reinforcing loops<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Loop<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First direction<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Second direction<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Water to biodiversity: flows \u00b7 wetlands<\/td><td>Biodiversity to water: regulation \u00b7 filtration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Food to biodiversity: land conversion<\/td><td>Biodiversity to food: pollination \u00b7 soils<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"3\">A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Met Office (ed.), \u201cRecord high temperatures verified\u201d (40.3 \u00b0C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Met Office (ed.), \u201c2022: the UK\u2019s warmest year on record.\u201d Met Office, Exeter, January 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK\u2019s Third Climate Change <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Assessment<\/a> (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>HM Government (ed.), UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022. HM Government, London, January 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Climate Change Committee (ed.), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2025 Report to Parliament. CCC, London, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h21\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.surface.coastal-erosion\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Erosion and sediment movement\" data-td=\"Retreat of the shoreline and cliffs under waves, currents and storms, removing land and exposing buildings.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H21\" data-tr=\"draft\">Coastal Erosion<\/a> Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), \u201cEnd of coal power\u201d, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>National Energy System Operator (ed.), Clean Power 2030: Advice on Achieving Clean Power for Great Britain by 2030. NESO, Warwick, November 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c1-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/\">United Kingdom 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>3 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>15 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006\">NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 6.3 million properties in England, roughly one in four, are in areas at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea or surface water, potentially rising to around 8 million by 2050.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-fig1-t\">Properties at flood risk in England (million)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Today<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"78.8\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">6.3<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">By 2050 (projection)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">\u22488<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: Environment Agency, NaFRA2 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Surface-water flooding now drives most exposure and is the hardest to defend against with walls and barriers. As Flood Re moves towards risk-reflective pricing by 2039<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup>, affordability and cover in the most exposed homes become a fiscal and household question<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Flood warnings in the 2026\u201327 winter, the Flood Re transition, and updated assessments for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Climate forcing<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\">NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Territorial greenhouse-gas emissions were 373 Mt CO\u2082e in 2024, 3% below 2023 and 53% below 1990.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003\">NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">2022 was the first year with a UK mean temperature above 10 \u00b0C, and 40.3 \u00b0C was recorded on 19 July 2022.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Energy<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002\">NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The UK\u2019s last coal-fired power station closed in September 2024, ending 142 years of coal power.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Health<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004\">NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 2,985 heat-associated deaths were recorded in England in summer 2022.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Water<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005\">NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">England faces a public water-supply shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without new action.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006\">NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, potentially around 8 million by 2050.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007\">NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Storm overflows in England spilled more than 460,000 times in 2023.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Food<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008\">NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Biodiversity<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009\">NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Studied species have declined in abundance by 19% on average since 1970; one in six is at risk of extinction in Great Britain.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Infrastructure<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-INF-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-INF-010\">NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-INF-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">A substation fire closed Heathrow Airport for most of 21 March 2025, showing single points of failure in <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 critical-infrastructure\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Physical and digital assets, systems and networks whose disruption would seriously affect health, safety, security, economic welfare or the functioning of government. Criticality depends on what relies on them.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">critical infrastructure<\/a>.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.9<\/span><span>Governance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-GOV-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-GOV-011\">NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-GOV-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The third UK climate <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">risk assessment<\/a> identified 61 risks and opportunities; the National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-register\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A maintained record of identified risks with their owners, assessments, controls and actions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Register<\/a> 2023 sets out 89 risks.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.10<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which heat, drought, water <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.supply-disruption\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"A break in the flow of goods or materials between producers and users that stops production or leaves shortages.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\">shortage<\/a> and grassland fires load health, water, rail and power at once. \u00a79.3<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h21\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.surface.coastal-erosion\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Erosion and sediment movement\" data-td=\"Retreat of the shoreline and cliffs under waves, currents and storms, removing land and exposing buildings.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H21\" data-tr=\"draft\">Coastal Erosion<\/a> Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Met Office (ed.), \u201cRecord high temperatures verified\u201d (40.3 \u00b0C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Met Office (ed.), \u201c2022: the UK\u2019s warmest year on record.\u201d Met Office, Exeter, January 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), \u201cEnd of coal power\u201d, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK\u2019s Third Climate Change <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Assessment<\/a> (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c2-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Cabinet Office (ed.), National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-register\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A maintained record of identified risks with their owners, assessments, controls and actions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Register<\/a> 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/\">United Kingdom 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>20 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WAT \u00b7 Water<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Projected public water-supply shortfall, England<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22485<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bn litres\/day<\/span><p>by 2055 without new supply and demand action.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><span>2055<\/span><span>Environment Agency<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ENE \u00b7 Energy<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Territorial emissions<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">373<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mt CO\u2082e<\/span><p>53% below 1990; the last coal plant closed in September 2024.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>DESNZ<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FOO \u00b7 Food<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Share of food consumed that is produced domestically<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224860<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>the rest is imported, mainly from the EU.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2023<\/span><span>DEFRA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HLT \u00b7 Health<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Heat-associated deaths, England<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">2,985<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths<\/span><p>in summer 2022, the year temperatures first reached 40 \u00b0C.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2022<\/span><span>UKHSA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">BIO \u00b7 Biodiversity<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Average change in abundance of studied species<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u221219<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>since 1970; one in six species at risk of extinction in Great Britain.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>1970\u20132021<\/span><span>State of Nature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Cross-system<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Properties at flood risk, England<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>about one in four; potentially 8 million by 2050.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>Environment Agency<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Flood exposure rising; supply shortfall projected in the South and East; river quality under strain.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT \u2192 HLT \u00b7 WAT \u2192 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Coal ended in 2024; clean power planned for 2030; grid more central as demand electrifies.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 HLT \u00b7 ENE \u2192 DAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>About 60% of food produced domestically; exposed to import and energy prices.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2190 ENE, TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>Heat deaths rising; heat and cold load the NHS and social care.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT \u2190 CLI, ENE<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Species abundance down 19% since 1970; habitats fragmented.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO \u2192 WAT regulation<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>First year above 10 \u00b0C in 2022; 40.3 \u00b0C recorded.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">forcing on all five systems<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Lifelines interdependent; single points of failure exposed in 2025.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF \u2192 ENE, DAT, TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>Weather claims high; flood cover supported by Flood Re until 2039.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2190 CLI \u00b7 FIN \u2192 households<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Data centres designated Critical National Infrastructure in 2024.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2190 ENE \u00b7 DAT \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>Compute growth adds load to grid connections.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 ENE<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Critical minerals strategy in place; import reliance high.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 ENE transition<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Food and energy import dependence passes price shocks to households.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2192 FOO, ENE<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>89 national risks; 61 climate risks and opportunities<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>compound hot, dry summers<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>flood exposure and supply shortfall<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>drought and surface-water flooding<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>coal ended; clean power 2030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>single points of failure<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food<\/td><td>about 60% domestic production<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>import price shocks<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>heat deaths<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>heat surge in NHS and care<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance<\/td><td>weather claims; Flood Re to 2039<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>flood cover affordability<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>regional inequalities in exposure<\/td><td>cost-of-living pressure<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>first year above 10 \u00b0C<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>heat and extreme rainfall<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>resilience framework in place<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>concurrent events<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>Heathrow outage, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>lifeline interdependence<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>London heat and surface water<\/td><td>urban heat; drainage<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>abundance \u221219% since 1970<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.biodiversity-loss\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Decline in the variety and abundance of species and habitats that weakens services such as pollination, fisheries and soil formation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\">habitat loss<\/a>; water quality<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>strong national monitoring<\/td><td>data integration<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>data centres designated CNI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>outages and attacks<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act; Environment Act; 2025 water law<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>implementation<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>deep research base<\/td><td>translation into operations<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h21\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.surface.coastal-erosion\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Erosion and sediment movement\" data-td=\"Retreat of the shoreline and cliffs under waves, currents and storms, removing land and exposing buildings.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H21\" data-tr=\"draft\">Coastal Erosion<\/a> Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK\u2019s Third Climate Change <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Assessment<\/a> (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Cabinet Office (ed.), National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-register\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A maintained record of identified risks with their owners, assessments, controls and actions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Register<\/a> 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), \u201cEnd of coal power\u201d, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Met Office (ed.), \u201c2022: the UK\u2019s warmest year on record.\u201d Met Office, Exeter, January 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Cabinet Office (ed.), The UK Government Resilience Framework. HM Government, London, December 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (ed.), \u201cData centres designated Critical National Infrastructure.\u201d Press release, London, September 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UK Parliament (ed.), Climate Change Act 2008, as amended by the Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019. London.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UK Parliament (ed.), Environment Act 2021. London, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c3-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UK Parliament (ed.), Water (Special Measures) Act 2025. London, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c3-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/\">United Kingdom 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>3 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>8 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GBR-CLI-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Extreme heat<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>heatwaves above 35\u201340 \u00b0C<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>older people; care homes; dense cities<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>housing not designed for heat; limited cooling<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>heat-health alerts; NHS surge planning<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 HLT \u00b7 CLI \u2192 INF rail and power<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>seasonal<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GBR-CLI-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Surface-water and river flooding<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>extreme rainfall; storm sequences<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>6.3 million properties in England<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>urban drainage capacity; cover affordability<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>flood warnings; defences; Flood Re<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>WAT \u2192 INF, HLT, FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>annual<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GBR-WAT-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Drought and water-supply shortfall<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>dry summers; population growth<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>South and East of England<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>leakage; limited storage<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>new reservoirs; transfers; demand management<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>WAT \u2192 HLT, FOO, BIO<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>5\u201330 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GBR-INF-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Single points of failure in lifelines<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>fire, flood or cyber event at a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h120\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.fragility.single-point-of-failure\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Structural fragility of interconnected systems\" data-td=\"Dependence of a service, region or industry on one asset, site, route or provider whose loss stops the whole, with no tested alternative.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H120\" data-tr=\"draft\">critical node<\/a><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>airports, hospitals, data centres, rail<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>limited redundancy at key substations<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>resilience framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup>; backup supply<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>ENE \u2192 INF \u2192 DAT, TRD<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>any time<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>planning rules and flood defences; adaptation behind risk<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>Met Office and agency monitoring in continuous use<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>weather, flood and heat-health alerts in real events<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-register\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A maintained record of identified risks with their owners, assessments, controls and actions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Register<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>; Resilience Framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>grid and water redundancy uneven; single points of failure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>emergency response to storms, floods and heat<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>data centres designated CNI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup>; continuity tested event by event<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>recovery schemes after major floods<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>national adaptation programme; CCC finds gaps<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>welfare and cost-of-living support<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>flood cover via Flood Re until 2039<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>UK and devolved resilience structures<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>ageing water and drainage networks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>health and care workforce pressures documented<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>strong climate and environmental science<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h21\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.surface.coastal-erosion\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Erosion and sediment movement\" data-td=\"Retreat of the shoreline and cliffs under waves, currents and storms, removing land and exposing buildings.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H21\" data-tr=\"draft\">Coastal Erosion<\/a> Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Cabinet Office (ed.), The UK Government Resilience Framework. HM Government, London, December 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Committee (ed.), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2025 Report to Parliament. CCC, London, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Cabinet Office (ed.), National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-register\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A maintained record of identified risks with their owners, assessments, controls and actions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Register<\/a> 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c4-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (ed.), \u201cData centres designated Critical National Infrastructure.\u201d Press release, London, September 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/\">United Kingdom 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Hot, dry summer in southern England<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>2 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a dry winter and spring; a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\">heatwave<\/a> above 38 \u00b0C in July; grassland fires on the urban edge<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>summer 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c5-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c5-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup>; 1976 drought<\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">low rainfall and heat cut river flows and reservoir levels<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">heat deaths and emergency demand rise<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c5-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 BIO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">grassland and heath fires near cities<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">rail speed restrictions and track failures<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">WAT \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">hosepipe bans; river quality falls<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">cooling demand meets constrained networks<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">, <\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01 would travel through United Kingdom&#8217;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Climate to water<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Low rainfall and heat cut river flows and reservoir levels. Analogue or source: 2022.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GBR, scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Climate to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Heat deaths and emergency demand rise. Analogue or source: 2022 [11].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GBR, scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Climate to biodiversity<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Grassland and heath fires near cities. Analogue or source: 2022.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GBR, scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Climate to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Rail speed restrictions and track failures. Analogue or source: 2022.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GBR, scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Water to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Hosepipe bans; river quality falls. Analogue or source: 2022.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GBR, scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Energy to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Cooling demand meets constrained networks. Analogue or source: , .<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GBR, scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">United Kingdom 2026, scenario SCN-GBR-HDS-01<\/a> (2026); United Kingdom 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c5-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c5-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Met Office (ed.), \u201cRecord high temperatures verified\u201d (40.3 \u00b0C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c5-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/\">United Kingdom 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Lenses and readings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>30 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people risk arrives as a heatwave in a home built for cold, a flooded street or a hosepipe ban. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that debate weigh who carries the costs of flooding as cover changes.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">HLT-004 \u00b7 WAT-006 \u00b7 WAT-005<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports a coupled reading of British risk. Heat, flooding and water shortage are already recorded, not projected; electrification makes the grid central; and food and nature carry slower exposures. Evidence is strongest for emissions and flood exposure, weakest for lifeline interdependence.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">CLI-001 \u00b7 WAT-006 \u00b7 INF-010 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Weather claims are high, flood cover rests on a transitional scheme until 2039<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup>, and the clean-power transition needs grid investment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">WAT-006 \u00b7 ENE-002<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>The UK has cut emissions fast and observes its risks well, but adaptation lags. The 2027 programme should test the hot, dry summer pathway, map lifeline single points of failure, and measure flood cover where it lands.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 A-01 \u00b7 A-03<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Britain\u2019s homes, hospitals and railways were built for cold. The 40 \u00b0C summer of 2022 showed what happens when heat arrives in infrastructure designed for the opposite. Adapting to heat is now as much a building and transport question as a health one.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>A cold-climate country in a hot summer<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">England faces more flood exposure and a projected supply shortfall at the same time. The same rain that floods streets in winter is missing from reservoirs in summer. Water policy has to manage both ends of the same system.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>Water is both too much and too little<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The end of coal and the plan for clean power by 2030 move more of daily life onto the grid. That raises the stakes of every single point of failure, as one substation fire at Heathrow made plain.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Clean power makes the grid the backbone<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Wetlands, floodplains and healthy rivers absorb floods and clean water. With species abundance down by a fifth since 1970, the country has been running down a capability it now needs most.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Nature is the cheapest defence<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from working groups, consortium institutions and invited experts begin with the Q1 2027 edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Q1 2027 readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First Q1 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td>National risk state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 six proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>NWG delivery register<\/td><td>no groups yet<\/td><td>first monthly outputs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>NNC capability register<\/td><td>membership opens in Q1 2027<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>NLC questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>environment prepared<\/td><td>first sealed cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first correction cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no public authority.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">UNDER REVIEW<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act 2008, net zero by 2050<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UK Parliament<\/td><td>UK<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Environment Act 2021<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UK Parliament<\/td><td>England (mainly)<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>nature, water targets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water (Special Measures) Act 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UK Parliament<\/td><td>England and Wales<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>water companies<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Clean Power 2030 Action Plan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>DESNZ<\/td><td>Great Britain<\/td><td>PUBLISHED 2024<\/td><td>power system<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UK Government Resilience Framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Cabinet Office<\/td><td>UK<\/td><td>PUBLISHED 2022<\/td><td>resilience<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data centres as Critical National Infrastructure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>DSIT<\/td><td>UK<\/td><td>DESIGNATED 2024<\/td><td>digital resilience<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical Minerals Strategy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>DBT<\/td><td>UK<\/td><td>PUBLISHED 2023<\/td><td>supply security<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Flood Re scheme to 2039<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Flood Re<\/td><td>UK<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>flood cover<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>The last coal power station closed in September 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The Water (Special Measures) Act became law in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Data centres were designated Critical National Infrastructure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>The next climate change <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">risk assessment<\/a> cycle<\/li><li>Implementation of water-sector reform<\/li><li>Progress against the clean power 2030 milestones<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. A change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers statutory assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in Q1 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about the United Kingdom\u2019s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>peer-reviewed literature; statutory assessments; official statistics; agency and industry data<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Assessments and peer-reviewed science<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Kendon et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>UK climate state<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CCRA3 independent assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>statutory assessment<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>climate risks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CCRA3 government report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>statutory assessment<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>priority risks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation progress<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>statutory report<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>adaptation gaps<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Lee and Romero (eds.)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>global forcing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zscheischler et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>compound events<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>McElwee et al. (eds.)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>nexus interlinkages<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional reports<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-register\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A maintained record of identified risks with their owners, assessments, controls and actions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Register<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Cabinet Office<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>national risks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Resilience Framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Cabinet Office<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>capability<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HECC report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UKHSA<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>climate and health<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Official statistics and agency data<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GHG emissions, final<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>DESNZ<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Flood assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Environment Agency<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>flood exposure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water resources framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Environment Agency<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>supply shortfall<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Storm overflows<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Environment Agency<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>river quality<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat mortality<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UKHSA<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>heat deaths<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ONS<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>profile<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food security<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>DEFRA<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>food supply<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Energy, nature and industry<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Clean Power 2030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>DESNZ \u00b7 NESO<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>power transition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Substation fire review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NESO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>single points of failure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of Nature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>partnership<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>species trends<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Weather claims<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ABI<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Flood Re<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Flood Re<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>flood cover<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Catastrophe figures<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Munich Re<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>European losses<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Heat and flooding are already recorded, not projected<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Adaptation is behind the pace of risk<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Biodiversity continues to decline<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How fast water demand and supply will diverge<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How flood cover will change after 2039<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How electrification will change grid resilience<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UK Parliament (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act 2008, as amended by the Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019. London.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UK Parliament (ed.), Environment Act 2021. London, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UK Parliament (ed.), Water (Special Measures) Act 2025. London, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Cabinet Office (ed.), The UK Government Resilience Framework. HM Government, London, December 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (ed.), \u201cData centres designated Critical National Infrastructure.\u201d Press release, London, September 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Department for Business and Trade (ed.), Resilience for the Future: The UK\u2019s Critical Minerals Strategy. DBT, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), \u201cEnd of coal power\u201d, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>M. Kendon et al., \u201cState of the UK Climate 2024,\u201d International Journal of Climatology, vol. 45, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK\u2019s Third Climate Change <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Assessment<\/a> (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>HM Government (ed.), UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022. HM Government, London, January 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Climate Change Committee (ed.), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2025 Report to Parliament. CCC, London, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., \u201cFuture climate risk from compound events,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469\u2013477, 2018.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13850054\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Cabinet Office (ed.), National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-register\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A maintained record of identified risks with their owners, assessments, controls and actions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Register<\/a> 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h21\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.surface.coastal-erosion\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Erosion and sediment movement\" data-td=\"Retreat of the shoreline and cliffs under waves, currents and storms, removing land and exposing buildings.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H21\" data-tr=\"draft\">Coastal Erosion<\/a> Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2023. ONS, Newport, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>National Energy System Operator (ed.), Clean Power 2030: Advice on Achieving Clean Power for Great Britain by 2030. NESO, Warwick, November 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/\">United Kingdom 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>4 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would a hot, dry summer load health services, water supply, rail and power in southern England at the same time?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GBR-HDS-01 \u00b7 hot, dry summer; first output: dependency graph for three regions.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where does <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h9\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.flood.pluvial\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Freshwater inundation\" data-td=\"Water ponding and running over land where intense rain exceeds the capacity of the ground and the drains, away from any river.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H9\" data-tr=\"draft\">surface-water flood<\/a> risk fall on households, and how will cover change as Flood Re transitions by 2039?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GBR-FLD-02 \u00b7 flood exposure and cover; first output: exposure\u2013cover table by region.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which substations, data centres and lifeline nodes are single points of failure for other critical services?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GBR-INF-03 \u00b7 lifeline interdependence; first output: public-safe interdependence schematic.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would a shock to imported food and energy pass into household prices and food security?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GBR-FOO-04 \u00b7 import price transmission; first output: transmission model.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">What surge capacity do the NHS and social care have for a 40 \u00b0C <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\">heatwave<\/a>?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GBR-HLT-05 \u00b7 heat surge readiness; first output: surge baseline for five regions.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do storm overflows, drought and heat combine to degrade river water quality?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">With GS-01 Water; first output: basin note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which coastal communities face combined erosion, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h11\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.coastal.sea-level-rise\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Coastal and sea-level hazards\" data-td=\"A long-term rise of mean sea level that raises the baseline for floods, erosion and saltwater intrusion.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H11\" data-tr=\"draft\">sea-level rise<\/a> and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h11\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.coastal.storm-surge\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Coastal and sea-level hazards\" data-td=\"Sea level pushed above the tide by storm wind and low pressure, flooding the coast.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H11\" data-tr=\"draft\">storm surge<\/a>?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GBR-HDS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Hot, dry summer dependency model<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GBR-FLD-02<\/span><\/td><td>Flood exposure and cover<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GBR-INF-03<\/span><\/td><td>Lifeline interdependence and single points of failure<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GBR-FOO-04<\/span><\/td><td>Import price transmission<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GBR-HLT-05<\/span><\/td><td>Heat surge readiness<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-GBR-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Hot, dry summer Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>A-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">United Kingdom is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027, across all four nations. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">One National Agenda<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">bounded national questions for the year<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">DRAFT 2027 \u00b7 agenda review at the Q1 alignment<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Desk<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">coordination, records, routing and continuity<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">DESIGNED \u00b7 constituted in Q1 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the country as a system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with the first Foundry cut<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Portfolio<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">7 PROPOSED \u00b7 admission at the Q1 alignment<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Foundry<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">continuous computational environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PREPARED \u00b7 first sealed cut NQ-GBR-2027-Q1<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Reports<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">quarterly and annual publication<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE ISSUED \u00b7 Q1 2027 \u00b7 State &amp; Agenda<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate set in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">after-action, correction and renewal<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in Q2 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>Q4 2027 annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-GBR-2027-01 \u00b7 hot, dry summer<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor (NLC) \u00b7 Institutional anchor (NNC) \u00b7 Mission lead (NWG)<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>CLI-001 \u00b7 emissions<\/td><td>public record<\/td><td>reference for the 2027 series<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HLT-004 \u00b7 heat deaths<\/td><td>INI-GBR-HLT-05<\/td><td>heat surge readiness<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WAT-005 \u00b7 supply shortfall<\/td><td>INI-GBR-HDS-01 \u00b7 GS-01<\/td><td>hot, dry summer<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WAT-006 \u00b7 flood exposure<\/td><td>INI-GBR-FLD-02 \u00b7 key F review<\/td><td>exposure and cover<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FOO-008 \u00b7 food supply<\/td><td>INI-GBR-FOO-04<\/td><td>import price transmission<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>INF-010 \u00b7 single points of failure<\/td><td>INI-GBR-INF-03<\/td><td>lifeline interdependence<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BIO-009 \u00b7 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.biodiversity-loss\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Decline in the variety and abundance of species and habitats that weakens services such as pollination, fisheries and soil formation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\">species decline<\/a><\/td><td>GS-11 Biodiversity edition<\/td><td>condition baseline<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-GBR-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the national pathway<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. Competent authorities receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from Q1 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Weather warnings<\/td><td>Met Office<\/td><td>real time<\/td><td>early-warning rung<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Flood warnings<\/td><td>Environment Agency \u00b7 SEPA \u00b7 NRW<\/td><td>real time<\/td><td>RSK-GBR-CLI-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat-health alerts<\/td><td>UKHSA<\/td><td>daily in season<\/td><td>RSK-GBR-CLI-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water situation reports<\/td><td>Environment Agency<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>RSK-GBR-WAT-003<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Storm overflow monitoring<\/td><td>water companies via the Environment Agency<\/td><td>near real time<\/td><td>WAT-007<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity system data<\/td><td>NESO<\/td><td>real time<\/td><td>ENE findings<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Catastrophe estimates<\/td><td>reinsurers and index providers<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>FIN findings<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">quarterly publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-GBR-001<\/td><td>Single points of failure in grid substations<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c7-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>ENE \u00b7 INF<\/td><td>initiative A-03<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-GBR-002<\/td><td>Projected water-supply shortfall in the South and East<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c7-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>WAT \u00b7 HLT<\/td><td>initiative A-01<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-GBR-003<\/td><td>Rising heat-health burden<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c7-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c7-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>HLT \u00b7 CLI<\/td><td>initiative A-05<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c7-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c7-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c7-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c7-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c7-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/\">United Kingdom 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Water, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Britain has too much water in winter and too little in summer. Flood exposure is rising while the South and East face a projected supply shortfall.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>properties at flood risk, England<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22485<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bn litres\/day<\/span><p>shortfall by 2055<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;460k<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">spills<\/span><p>storm overflows, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Flood exposure<\/td><td>about one in four properties in England<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Supply<\/td><td>shortfall projected by 2055 without action<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Quality<\/td><td>storm overflow spills; river condition<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Governance<\/td><td>water-sector reform law in 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>WAT \u2192 HLT drinking water and river quality<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 INF flooding of networks<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 FIN uninsured flood losses<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>basin stress in the South and East<\/li><li>flood exposure in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Groundwater and reservoir levels each spring; flood warnings each winter; reform of the water sector.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">REG-EUR Europe<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-01 AI<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Water management rests with governments, regulators, agencies and water companies under their own mandates; this chapter assesses none of them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Energy, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The power system has changed fastest of all: coal ended in 2024 and clean power is planned for 2030. Electrification makes the grid the backbone of other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">373<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mt CO\u2082e<\/span><p>emissions, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2024<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Sept<\/span><p>last coal power station closed<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2030<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">target<\/span><p>clean power plan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Emissions<\/td><td>373 Mt CO\u2082e in 2024, 53% below 1990<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coal<\/td><td>last coal power station closed in September 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Clean power<\/td><td>action plan for 2030 published<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Single points of failure<\/td><td>substation fire closed Heathrow in 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ENE \u2192 HLT power for care and cooling<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 DAT data centres<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 INF transport and airports<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>substation and network redundancy<\/li><li>data-centre connection demand<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Clean power 2030 milestones; network investment; winter security of supply.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">REG-EUR Europe<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-01 AI<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Energy decisions rest with government, regulators and the system operator; this chapter assesses none of them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes. Import and energy prices pass quickly to households, and drought and heat cut domestic yields.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224860<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of food produced domestically<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224840<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>imported (derived)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2022<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">shock<\/span><p>energy and food price rise<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Self-supply<\/td><td>around 60% of food consumed<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Imports<\/td><td>mainly from Europe<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate<\/td><td>drought and heat cut yields<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prices<\/td><td>energy costs pass into food prices<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ENE \u2192 FOO inputs and prices<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 FOO irrigation in the East<\/li><li>TRD \u2192 FOO imports<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>household food access<\/li><li>price transmission from shocks<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Food price inflation; yields after hot, dry summers; import disruptions.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">REG-EUR Europe<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-01 AI<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes the food system; it makes no statement on agricultural or trade policy or about any company.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Heat is the fastest-growing climate\u2013health risk in a country built for cold. Floods and cold also load the NHS and social care.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2,985<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths<\/span><p>heat-associated, England, 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">40.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">\u00b0C<\/span><p>record temperature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2023<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">report<\/span><p>Health Effects of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Heat<\/td><td>about 2,985 heat-associated deaths in 2022<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Vulnerability<\/td><td>older people and those with chronic illness<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Flooding<\/td><td>health effects of floods and displacement<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Surge capacity<\/td><td>not consolidated nationally<\/td><td>,<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 HLT heat<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 HLT power for care<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 HLT water quality<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>NHS and care heat surge capacity<\/li><li>cooling in care homes<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Heat-health alerts; excess deaths in heatwaves; flood-related displacement.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">REG-EUR Europe<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-01 AI<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Health-system planning rests with the health services of the four nations. No personal health data are used or shown in Reports.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The UK is among the most nature-depleted countries. Species abundance has fallen by a fifth since 1970, weakening natural flood and water regulation.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u221219<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>species abundance since 1970<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1 in 6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">species<\/span><p>at risk of extinction, GB<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2021<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Act<\/span><p>Environment Act targets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Abundance<\/td><td>average decline of 19% since 1970<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Extinction risk<\/td><td>one in six species in Great Britain<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rivers<\/td><td>storm overflows and low flows<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Targets<\/td><td>legally binding targets under the Environment Act<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>BIO \u2192 WAT flood and water regulation<\/li><li>BIO \u2192 FOO pollination and soils<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 BIO river quality<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>habitat condition indicators<\/li><li>progress against Environment Act targets<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Progress on legally binding nature targets; river condition; habitat restoration.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">REG-EUR Europe<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-01 AI<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Biodiversity is not reduced to a single number. Where valuation is used later, it will never be presented as the whole value.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h21\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.surface.coastal-erosion\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Erosion and sediment movement\" data-td=\"Retreat of the shoreline and cliffs under waves, currents and storms, removing land and exposing buildings.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H21\" data-tr=\"draft\">Coastal Erosion<\/a> Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UK Parliament (ed.), Water (Special Measures) Act 2025. London, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), \u201cEnd of coal power\u201d, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>National Energy System Operator (ed.), Clean Power 2030: Advice on Achieving Clean Power for Great Britain by 2030. NESO, Warwick, November 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK\u2019s Third Climate Change <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Assessment<\/a> (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Met Office (ed.), \u201cRecord high temperatures verified\u201d (40.3 \u00b0C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-c8-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UK Parliament (ed.), Environment Act 2021. London, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-c8-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/\">United Kingdom 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>12 tables<\/span><span>6 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Emissions reduction since 1990<\/td><td>417 \u00f7 (373 + 417)<\/td><td>\u2248 53%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>1990 emissions implied<\/td><td>373 + 417<\/td><td>\u2248 790 Mt CO\u2082e<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Growth in flood-exposed properties by 2050<\/td><td>8.0 \u00f7 6.3<\/td><td>\u2248 1.27\u00d7<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Imported share of food consumed<\/td><td>100 \u2212 60<\/td><td>\u2248 40%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, National Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-GBR-NATIONAL \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent the United Kingdom as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> with forcing and transmission layers<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of systems<\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from evidence and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>national scale; not for nation, region or asset-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the coupled reading of British risk.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, operational decisions, provincial comparisons or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>40 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>NQ-GBR-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Q1 2027<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>qualified source bindings with versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>National Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to the cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Territorial GHG emissions<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Feb 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>Feb 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UK mean temperature record<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>Jan 2023<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat-associated deaths<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Properties at flood risk<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Dec 2024<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next assessment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water-supply shortfall<\/td><td>to 2055<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next framework<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Storm overflow spills<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population<\/td><td>mid-2023<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Domestic food production share<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>Dec 2024<\/td><td>three-yearly<\/td><td>next report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Species abundance<\/td><td>1970\u20132021<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next State of Nature<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National risks<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Climate forcing<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>regional extremes<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>network single points of failure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland detail<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>household access<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Health<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>heat surge capacity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>habitat condition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>flood cover after 2039<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Digital and cyber<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>dependency mapping<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero as official statistics assessed by the Office for Statistics Regulation. UK coverage 1990\u20132024, revised each February. Role: binds CLI-001.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-GBR-001<\/h3><p>2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the Environment Agency from national flood models and local data. Coverage: England. Role: binds WAT-006 and the flood exposure figures.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-GBR-002<\/h3><p>National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-ca-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-CAN-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-CAN-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>all sectors and gases<\/td><td>rivers, sea and surface water<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about 13 months after the year<\/td><td>periodic national update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>annual back-revision<\/td><td>revised with new models<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>methodology published<\/td><td>methods published<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>UNFCCC expert review<\/td><td>local authority review<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Water resources framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-ca-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>, demand and supply projections<\/li><li>Heat mortality report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-ca-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>, excess-death method<\/li><li>State of Nature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-ca-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>, abundance index method<\/li><li>National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-register\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A maintained record of identified risks with their owners, assessments, controls and actions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Register<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-ca-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>, likelihood and impact scales<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The Global Risks Forum turns the meaning key: its steward checks that each finding is said without overreach, endorsement or judgement of public figures. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on five sites<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then do the five Reports sites show the edition as published, each reading it through its own lens.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at Global Risks Forum<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>ABI<\/td><td>Association of British Insurers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CCC<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Committee<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CCRA3<\/td><td>Third UK Climate Change <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Assessment<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CNI<\/td><td>Critical National Infrastructure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DEFRA<\/td><td>Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DESNZ<\/td><td>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DSIT<\/td><td>Department for Science, Innovation and Technology<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EA<\/td><td>Environment Agency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HECC<\/td><td>Health Effects of Climate Change report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NaFRA2<\/td><td>National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk, 2024<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NESO<\/td><td>National Energy System Operator<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NRR<\/td><td>National Risk Register<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ONS<\/td><td>Office for National Statistics<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UKHSA<\/td><td>UK Health Security Agency<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the baseline indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-GBR-HDS-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>Q1 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>Q2 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Nation and region notes<\/td><td>atlas cards for the four nations and English regions<\/td><td>Q2 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition, territorial greenhouse-gas emissions<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>annual greenhouse-gas emissions within UK territory, net of land use<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>Mt CO\u2082e<\/dd><dt>Scope<\/dt><dd>territorial basis used for UK targets<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>DESNZ final figures 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Revision<\/dt><dd>back-revised each February<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>excludes emissions embodied in imports<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h21\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.surface.coastal-erosion\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Erosion and sediment movement\" data-td=\"Retreat of the shoreline and cliffs under waves, currents and storms, removing land and exposing buildings.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H21\" data-tr=\"draft\">Coastal Erosion<\/a> Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-ca-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-ca-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ca-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Cabinet Office (ed.), National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-register\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A maintained record of identified risks with their owners, assessments, controls and actions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Register<\/a> 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-ca-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/\">United Kingdom 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>7 tables<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Territorial GHG emissions<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">373<\/span><\/td><td>Mt CO\u2082e<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Change since 1990<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u221253<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Last coal power station closed<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">Sept<\/span><\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Record temperature<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">40.3<\/span><\/td><td>\u00b0C<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Warmest year mean temperature<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">10.03<\/span><\/td><td>\u00b0C<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat-associated deaths, England<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2,985<\/span><\/td><td>deaths<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Properties at flood risk, England<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">6.3<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Properties at flood risk by 2050<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u22488<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2050<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water-supply shortfall by 2055<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u22485<\/span><\/td><td>bn litres\/day<\/td><td>2055<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Storm overflow spills<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">&gt;460,000<\/span><\/td><td>spills<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">68.3<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>mid-2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Domestic share of food consumed<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u224860<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Change in species abundance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u221219<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>1970\u20132021<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Species at risk of extinction, GB<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u224816<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National risks in register<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">89<\/span><\/td><td>risks<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate risks and opportunities<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">61<\/span><\/td><td>items<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0ATerritorial%20GHG%20emissions%2C373%2CMt%20CO%E2%82%82e%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AChange%20since%201990%2C%E2%88%9253%2C%25%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0ALast%20coal%20power%20station%20closed%2CSept%2C2024%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B18%5D%0ARecord%20temperature%2C40.3%2C%C2%B0C%2C2022%2CREPORTED%2C%5B28%5D%0AWarmest%20year%20mean%20temperature%2C10.03%2C%C2%B0C%2C2022%2CREPORTED%2C%5B29%5D%0A%22Heat-associated%20deaths%2C%20England%22%2C%222%2C985%22%2Cdeaths%2C2022%2CREPORTED%2C%5B11%5D%0A%22Properties%20at%20flood%20risk%2C%20England%22%2C6.3%2Cmillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B8%5D%0AProperties%20at%20flood%20risk%20by%202050%2C%E2%89%888%2Cmillion%2C2050%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B8%5D%0AWater-supply%20shortfall%20by%202055%2C%E2%89%885%2Cbn%20litres%2Fday%2C2055%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B9%5D%0AStorm%20overflow%20spills%2C%22%3E460%2C000%22%2Cspills%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B10%5D%0APopulation%2C68.3%2Cmillion%2Cmid-2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B13%5D%0ADomestic%20share%20of%20food%20consumed%2C%E2%89%8860%2C%25%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B14%5D%0AChange%20in%20species%20abundance%2C%E2%88%9219%2C%25%2C1970%E2%80%932021%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%0A%22Species%20at%20risk%20of%20extinction%2C%20GB%22%2C%E2%89%8816%2C%25%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%0ANational%20risks%20in%20register%2C89%2Crisks%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0AClimate%20risks%20and%20opportunities%2C61%2Citems%2C2021%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22United%20Kingdom%20Systems%20Risk%20and%20Resilience%20Report%202026%3A%20The%20State%20of%20the%20United%20Kingdom%E2%80%99s%20Interdependent%20Systems%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Territorial%20GHG%20emissions%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22373%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Mt%20CO%E2%82%82e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Change%20since%201990%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%88%9253%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Last%20coal%20power%20station%20closed%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Sept%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B18%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Record%20temperature%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2240.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%C2%B0C%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B28%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Warmest%20year%20mean%20temperature%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2210.03%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%C2%B0C%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B29%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Heat-associated%20deaths%2C%20England%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222%2C985%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22deaths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B11%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Properties%20at%20flood%20risk%2C%20England%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%226.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B8%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Properties%20at%20flood%20risk%20by%202050%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%888%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222050%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22SCENARIO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B8%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Water-supply%20shortfall%20by%202055%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%885%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22bn%20litres%2Fday%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222055%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22SCENARIO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Storm%20overflow%20spills%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%3E460%2C000%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22spills%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B10%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Population%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2268.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22mid-2023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B13%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Domestic%20share%20of%20food%20consumed%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%8860%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B14%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Change%20in%20species%20abundance%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%88%9219%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221970%E2%80%932021%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Species%20at%20risk%20of%20extinction%2C%20GB%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%8816%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22National%20risks%20in%20register%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2289%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22risks%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Climate%20risks%20and%20opportunities%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2261%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22items%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222021%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Emissions are territorial and net of land use. Flood and water figures cover England. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>National source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">BIO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GHG emissions statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>official statistics<\/td><td>UK<\/td><td>1990\u20132024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 ENE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of the UK Climate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>peer-reviewed<\/td><td>UK<\/td><td>to 2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CCRA3<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>statutory assessment<\/td><td>UK<\/td><td>2021\u20132022<\/td><td>five-yearly<\/td><td>CLI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-register\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A maintained record of identified risks with their owners, assessments, controls and actions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Register<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>government<\/td><td>UK<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>all<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Flood assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>technical authority<\/td><td>England<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>WAT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water resources framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>technical authority<\/td><td>England<\/td><td>to 2055<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>WAT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Storm overflows<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>technical authority<\/td><td>England<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>WAT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat mortality<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>public health agency<\/td><td>England<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>HLT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>official statistics<\/td><td>UK<\/td><td>mid-2023<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>profile<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food security<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>government<\/td><td>UK<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>three-yearly<\/td><td>FOO<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of Nature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>civil society<\/td><td>UK<\/td><td>1970\u20132021<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>BIO<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Substation fire review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>system operator<\/td><td>GB<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>INF<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading, the four nations and English regions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates for each nation and region follow in Q2 2027. This page gives the regional reading in table form, and ranks no nation or region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading, the four nations and English regions<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Scotland<\/td><td>storms, river flooding, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h21\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.surface.coastal-erosion\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Erosion and sediment movement\" data-td=\"Retreat of the shoreline and cliffs under waves, currents and storms, removing land and exposing buildings.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H21\" data-tr=\"draft\">coastal erosion<\/a><\/td><td>power networks, rural transport<\/td><td>CCRA3<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Northern Ireland<\/td><td>storms, flooding<\/td><td>power, water, agriculture<\/td><td>CCRA3<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wales<\/td><td>river and surface-water flooding<\/td><td>communities, transport<\/td><td>CCRA3<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>North of England<\/td><td>river flooding, storms<\/td><td>housing, rail, industry<\/td><td>flood assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Midlands<\/td><td>river flooding, heat<\/td><td>transport hubs, agriculture<\/td><td>flood assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East of England<\/td><td>drought, coastal flooding<\/td><td>agriculture, water supply<\/td><td>water framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>London and South East<\/td><td>heat, surface-water flooding, water stress<\/td><td>health, transport, water<\/td><td>heat<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup> \u00b7 water<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South West<\/td><td>coastal flooding, storms<\/td><td>coasts, tourism, rail<\/td><td>flood assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The leading compound pathway runs through the South and East: hot, dry summers, a projected supply shortfall and dense populations exposed to heat.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">SOUTH AND EAST<\/h3><p>Heat and water stress<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Surface-water flooding drives most flood exposure and hits dense urban areas hardest.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">CITIES<\/h3><p>Surface water<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Winter storms test power networks and rural transport in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">NATIONS<\/h3><p>Storms and networks<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES IN Q2 2027<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any nation or region.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Atlas card, London<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">city<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">river basin<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">grid region<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">transport hub<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>health, water, transport, power<\/dd><dt>Defining events<\/dt><dd>40 \u00b0C heat in July 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup>; surface-water flooding in 2021; Heathrow substation outage in March 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 HLT heat; WAT \u2192 INF surface water; ENE \u2192 INF single points of failure<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>heat-health and flood warnings used in real events<\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>heat surge capacity; drainage capacity; lifeline redundancy<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>A-01 \u00b7 A-02 \u00b7 A-03<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">London\u2019s urban heat island amplifies heatwaves, and older residents in poorly ventilated homes face the highest risk [11] [12].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">HEALTH<\/h3><p>Heat in a dense city<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Intense summer storms overwhelm drainage built for a cooler, smaller city.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">WATER<\/h3><p>Surface-water flooding<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">One substation fire halted Europe\u2019s busiest airport for most of a day [19].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">INFRASTRUCTURE<\/h3><p>Single points of failure<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Atlas cards are generated for each nation and English region from Q2 2027 with consistent fields and evidence-age labels. London is shown first because it holds the leading heat and lifeline pathways.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>United Kingdom system card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The card through which the United Kingdom appears in the Europe regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">United Kingdom system card<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline state<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>flood exposure rising; supply shortfall projected<\/td><td>heat and drought<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy<\/td><td>coal ended; clean power planned<\/td><td>grid single points of failure<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food<\/td><td>about 60% domestic production<\/td><td>import prices<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Health<\/td><td>heat burden rising<\/td><td>heat and care capacity<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>long-run decline<\/td><td>habitat and water quality<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The UK card sits beside European neighbours; interconnectors, food trade and shared seas are read as one regional system.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EUROPE REGIONAL EDITION<\/h3><p>One regional system<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">UK evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES<\/h3><p>Same findings, same IDs<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">In the global edition the UK is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">GLOBAL FLAGSHIP<\/h3><p>Peers, not ranks<\/p><\/article><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Context<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Archetype<\/dt><dd>high-income island economy with a temperate maritime climate<\/dd><dt>Population<\/dt><dd>68.3 million (mid-2023)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Emissions<\/dt><dd>53% below 1990 (2024)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Food<\/dt><dd>about 60% produced domestically<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and national ownership of the UK edition is unaffected.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>16 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), \u201cEnd of coal power\u201d, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Met Office (ed.), \u201cRecord high temperatures verified\u201d (40.3 \u00b0C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Met Office (ed.), \u201c2022: the UK\u2019s warmest year on record.\u201d Met Office, Exeter, January 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h21\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.surface.coastal-erosion\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Erosion and sediment movement\" data-td=\"Retreat of the shoreline and cliffs under waves, currents and storms, removing land and exposing buildings.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H21\" data-tr=\"draft\">Coastal Erosion<\/a> Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2023. ONS, Newport, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Cabinet Office (ed.), National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-register\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A maintained record of identified risks with their owners, assessments, controls and actions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Register<\/a> 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK\u2019s Third Climate Change <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Assessment<\/a> (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>M. Kendon et al., \u201cState of the UK Climate 2024,\u201d International Journal of Climatology, vol. 45, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>HM Government (ed.), UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022. HM Government, London, January 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cb-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gbr-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/\">United Kingdom 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>10 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>40 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>M. Kendon et al., \u201cState of the UK Climate 2024,\u201d International Journal of Climatology, vol. 45, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK\u2019s Third Climate Change <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Assessment<\/a> (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>HM Government (ed.), UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022. HM Government, London, January 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Climate Change Committee (ed.), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2025 Report to Parliament. CCC, London, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Cabinet Office (ed.), National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-register\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A maintained record of identified risks with their owners, assessments, controls and actions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Register<\/a> 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h21\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.surface.coastal-erosion\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Erosion and sediment movement\" data-td=\"Retreat of the shoreline and cliffs under waves, currents and storms, removing land and exposing buildings.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H21\" data-tr=\"draft\">Coastal Erosion<\/a> Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2023. ONS, Newport, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>National Energy System Operator (ed.), Clean Power 2030: Advice on Achieving Clean Power for Great Britain by 2030. NESO, Warwick, November 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), \u201cEnd of coal power\u201d, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (ed.), \u201cData centres designated Critical National Infrastructure.\u201d Press release, London, September 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Department for Business and Trade (ed.), Resilience for the Future: The UK\u2019s Critical Minerals Strategy. DBT, London, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UK Parliament (ed.), Climate Change Act 2008, as amended by the Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019. London. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UK Parliament (ed.), Environment Act 2021. London, 2021. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UK Parliament (ed.), Water (Special Measures) Act 2025. London, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Cabinet Office (ed.), The UK Government Resilience Framework. HM Government, London, December 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Met Office (ed.), \u201cRecord high temperatures verified\u201d (40.3 \u00b0C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Met Office (ed.), \u201c2022: the UK\u2019s warmest year on record.\u201d Met Office, Exeter, January 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. WMO, Geneva, March 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., \u201cFuture climate risk from compound events,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469\u2013477, 2018. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, \u201cCatastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,\u201d Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025\u20131028, 2010.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13850054\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026\u20132030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026, AI and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United States Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>United Kingdom <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Edition 2026\u20132030<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>Q1 2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-gbr-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">GBR<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-gbr-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-NAT-GBR-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for United Kingdom; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20United%20Kingdom\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20United%20Kingdom&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20United%20Kingdom\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20United%20Kingdom\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20United%20Kingdom\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on United Kingdom, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on United Kingdom for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;United Kingdom&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Country Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GRF&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;grf&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;United Kingdom&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Country Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-gbr-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gbr-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>GBR edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> United Kingdom 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GBR is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on United Kingdom.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Global Risks Forum<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Country Systems Risk and Resilience<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GRF<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Global Risks Forum<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See every way to contribute<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/grf\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gbr\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><section class=\"nx-section nx-deeper-band\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-balriskforum-com-nexus-reports-editions-gbr-full-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><nav class=\"nx-deeper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-balriskforum-com-nexus-reports-editions-gbr-full-h\" data-nx-deeper=\"3\" data-nx-resources=\"1 1 1\"><h2 class=\"nx-deeper-h\" id=\"nx-deeper-balriskforum-com-nexus-reports-editions-gbr-full-h\">Go deeper<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Documentation:<\/span> Reports<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/risk-information-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Academy:<\/span> Risk information standards and interoperability<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/data\/identification-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Standards:<\/span> Identification (the UNI)<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? 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