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F5\/s9XCNR1uN\/AxTKs3WvWkdlU7cCiV5Zv5L+e+Iz8kNRstXuIBMKEoNJuW9iBEaiBD7GUrJUA8K54DZlvngEyrwjEkdxY4yR02YTXK5RtRVWEND6RpPmTI+ZAi50O\/cgcSQq4Bw6BQKsFvYE+WbGhpDJOInEljC5g7DH0mjmkzwx5b0QnTmsAs0b9QQYMnwLRFrUoOPbPsfIPzwCkoA6uJ7T8lig+dB0LIiZjRQ3YWOEmJn8WbklDLKd42uTG6\/2PkqThEnuDVQjspPSXyIyCIZ6WHPcxpkjF0PaaaB2cpqGcvpG0b3Gv212tvY2leAhYhsyjMeAgniT1C0rUaJms1Klur4UvWaoRXY8GoRwJNRgXuxaxB4k23GhVQO\/2mo2Z64Omq550LDa\/ghTvUDo\/HqZqTm3mYEQyHMWUfuLY43brM4MYVY+L6QrFEkDAdzsg477r3V6bf\/otKLrzB+gkMQEXuPULGOfR2h9oYUHkXn8YrgJTrT7OdwqmE2hinE2MgElIEgK\/XmxOSKk1P9GSWYi44bewjaZof1cY+isY+po3Neh+Fg+k5FQ1GcBTWtG3V23r9W7OJfzZ+40t4ctwEXUYRimJMrq+d6OnwzmlxfLiOwLjM+72Vp\/tnz6CKsOsOtdvOXjfZ6F31YHuht9408zqVz7JKuvq3QkN5oXEL0bPG+qcXGOtnmWAJqHGyR8gsAfqJRIdZ72TbXP8EopEd+L5QOnzO9GVFA33rMLXQZz9BP\/eUmuEZTpV0clYR\/T6lMTvx3QmnKBeRNcmUgKVftc9S\/fAZdFOZjy0\/06ePyaEj2nE+Gnvq0cgiTdM6ihKoWACVqGf1K07+Yw+p3VMtwitfS4\/2BduSEAYjw6aex0VvU8iDzIiCeZyOYUGa5uIoTMawkCsT9hZ9XjXueX28yj2Wcdox6PY916d8iLmjnyUq5g6A8l1v\/GxjUWUBaAGVSzph4AJKBTMaKdtEIi+AqsCyoi2WxRyFUYGCSrOwEDO2e+Myuev\/f9CTnJdHLTim+EJZ\/FhpPXfcGcLmY4VujblhJhoVC3H7IFhrAg\/KQQFJHzmhmOYs348KaWF8UzzmD9WofBC2FTnQCY0mUp3lk14PibEJv169VFnGbIT7elqSQTGlQ+WTU9WCg3A\/4\/GUNE2aHbhp4mbi92i\/1+orXKmgdCt6P4aWDzZHxfGWN9HsmzlFG5ENm485QEZiRa3n2rdUx1450yGSW\/6Zunl9h1YOnUd51K1XfI+EEOVE1pChDqp9XZz+u8af9Jrr1+gipBGrgUstnaM2kqsbVo5tgLAZ5gZW3m8M3ipVX+qo9nV62Prt36iN3tPFNK51meU7VuTEyQfTysHbw4UXIS6siKVgvmDLgmhOK5XkgvCxnd+HXP4YssaC\/4GdP6w\/SpHgL65hXwhNe+NXvBqS5CFXpPGrNO6Npcq9sQANfP1XaC55l7YqBI16683xtiCDV9AIWAJ5C418ncavm0cp1sBgMynrV30o5BYz+c6CkIyEKJOxKW4t1YXrGFjQ\/84Y+mMFp+OEASCfw4iylYieWQmL+I2Ij7veeiU3CG1EHFCtN5zkFgAfZYDPKhcg33pVCRKrBCReASR\/a0AhFXqafbqiOR+UMlSXWirhOytgUL5LPTqjnnSyxUYcei7T0BolgNky0IlK3ONKrXLwNa4fZEIL2D69IyshlV5yGAqJxWUD0U1DOoL1mqA4lHanBXk\/nQxopIVAU9OdssunJDn4gzsJlb4kcgd1xip6GCxyJxpu0+RcO6yjdg3Vtai36K\/XiAOjhuoLnBx2kbIiNznzTGYOLeg\/mBv29VovBVS5SbTGXR5AX1t21OHsNI13o17b12Ea7dLV4IU30lvDr9L99pTlls42ihMSH81Wd1fC\/Ua0\/ZNUkFWLHLBL\/6kJGVTu0ISEoa1CTThw+HuE\/IRXPxHfZFTzE0vLRo5LTB\/WKHXdlVNUaAmlGuUIoUPfQAY+p7++YBFM8YxApRyoZM9\/a1U1tzWWwuWKpdq72LZC0OwpTVW0tS1A\/i\/hm0LVVLR09CUtZ0iP8u5tCtgTx7YqIsyXpQqzdUmaJc09ONQjybfwLlAFU4b0vxWh06e7bS0AIY+OqO\/UjmsgB8kd09drFZ9YQmhouQlp6FLPkVstERvX62zXSbjkvdgsLaGDLyPsY0IrT5KS\/OS1VEfjEh1V5isAhsCp5wG718bbiqqd9D\/VsC\/qqIHqEch\/De7uArosaKxEwHfcSeZnyU\/QvGQ504fCyuER9FfdTCTvpjawbqkGyQOiyj+WmKfCiMYxWKcSEHSkKwmvUAYFLt\/KQhHGqTVrkw1QMEI\/xwj97eOxPEkNpoxBEIrJi6TmsKZZUiU\/Zl6gjJEgvGVr42WfV94u8CrUFgVTyaay+jatW\/C1WGSWCkYjtF6nL2oIrxbbJoqSTlWTaZi2Wz5dgdGwK8q+0yiyXL8RDIdiX45xpbtIrmziWVIWD6CUy\/yFczvOz+04jqDDfuX4\/e2Nkl\/scXFJE2lFyvqLCmw1owxbCSGjDvdoleLWCIxD5ZqSxFJpiSLpUtzlKKoiZ5mJLMK9tLWD3len3\/vq6Eb\/54OC5JHwBjj9CpFTjifKIkZ0ES4iaqYOpRbOteERLUoESwPhXqsv6JOEvJA+o8wbREdgxpFW5gXxpU2mqVNRJhE9kw\/ydT3RxCUiZp56j7QLAZFbcmGw4MJdUH6CBDEXr27JbTarr6dah2hfndUvG1zXOntfHYxhonrmRHKbwboLDcMRkCT0eUgupCo4VR+3dO2iMcQHoHLmw\/tMWg3+NQzmWqtxq\/8COiP1wLSojzTr58+4PoYx3h61AKhl6s2u3AP56j6gXkVxHrxa7usm2FMYBTaNY9cfSR77GLqx+MUiy6biJ+ei4ueEssi1RWUbgnX76XvwFxJO\/Z0dmmnVwS2iL1BQs0xBXeaGx0+rPX9bP51TBQlHPSk5maVExM1iDWAWpcSLzxgIxB14U28iqoSsUe6OzMYRjceB57SNw9dKFNoSHN2W7MhNR7\/kHqERTXXgLust2VYw2glUPFErnojoKtY7Yf1nJqKooU+fkb3yxj9JPp7xdRHU4iX2Vu4Ss9vPFCeKVWFwW4GE04Z6ukSNtrWpcpUR1Cc9hITE7zX7UtH+PnCoalJ+EuOekSe1ADfoC9dioV+YyTMJfwJDvvh4ndMjNHX1ff2p0n2bKydmuz8fvlLXawwDdYfaEyEkdVXbeOSJb7EnvArVETVTdjcjTXOWGaxnqbF+Bshiy2CGJ7zibwDIZYxOcv9sR6j1q8K8i3UWWtpHwr3TPrcYfq7bQn\/VIfJJeTUfjXSw\/zOjG0+kaT5lMHlKYfKkwuRPvBprfypWLAHOdLEhRENv4vrhK\/1EJONJ3e8UJV09751\/TF4WMXC409tCmES5w0UCkx2BAtz16ojM8OokVyc1sV13Ph5tj\/xn401CnAv1NmPtRHq8y2OKwhQFCR7BaYXbHHZa6JSje9oUnN03mxET+767w2FXQAzp3WLYx\/NG2C5+UXjzRTVD6qrEvdfUW32FvN+SpnmbLdotLNpFStlp7zZbuJJTat7nfL1WywuSJwd+x2eTH\/JnPuT8F4Di54yxlPTJz69MoYB405VRDRYtFRiYNfBoqtCaWCxyF+rJ9hwY1Tk7slIonHNGdU81i\/bOgbPx8+IucaTEL9WDZj121E35n8ekb2qX9TwmvFPlTxGZ9pLxg2NanDC6CyGHQBQI30FX3VsppeNUJm01FYcoGNMDOwqyXcqSbXrGSEB7D6xfNoRICk5cc6POMoYWY3Z0ls4yTlt0KTljvZiVnoBFU0JkcWnHpUcXacCMrKUqsKXzIa0Mf9gRoZeM9RHG+siOvHT2j3ysp1TzaO8xWYYpI8gH845BJwPqgPfvhKKMctxmsRjlAczJmGhjHIDfs+6r8ogwBbKcKVCa9Xu0r2R8Wa\/hRWp9L90KQvTwpeQBvgvtSPcXlIsc2yHwMZelcpH4W8S95JTKAaCzxGHUB79oPhUwveofYEbw+OkHI3TtwAuiRmxD8+2aY0WPONEDcicfRkRAVAb6KR9\/4lgGigBeoPOp8ymJ6u0gaAi1kcedL9O\/SiDbd+45fQ0WHy6UMSxalBbiqYyurAKRWRVMIuHk48oSE2FyFnI6zx4ymDrOcoGSEVAl2EYIDxoP4eRz6oi5iFba\/J34jXP1LMfJVcrKtdUG5GGhZGsO5ECFY3\/pXJIiMFk15BtigYSWIh0Azn0sjFPOv8HHKOCHTc7tq2pJqJRVVF1n+BJzdJerCrt2pzkeLOawqXbuAGkP42Vht1UQI16+wYLRyKO1VDO3wy2He+XsVCxCgZK1EgsFrvlbih2O5vm0G8+5lQPVa8vJrhzKLNdri5RRbLNJHca9ZP\/\/IU4u0MUfRHGk9LosiKwRR64rRifaNKUdDK9ELRAO\/oAdIPZnh\/8WGMt\/ilBONY7yj+ycdFkepa2CXXLIq1zyp3v+qTsO5r7wVkx113tXDK+KruAyaFg4g++i9ZKSzV0gQZFeM2xv0Nh6KVFWvOErp9eM0JVIDM\/yG8I5S03i9AdOlVEAng9L8L2JQ88C52Ofp0lA7iQMImbxQ4VgZA6tzLDBV5qLbTRK2OU4TdWRQuWy46RM+TLnoHP5o2MyL9Nl37vs7F2xzp5D83GyPK1WRQD+mEZB7ZhrbKTjMWhtIF1CmVhqU5\/u\/tpwwV+2skxkTXiXoJOoKEOLg+HRywyvblhZriY1LZO+f+S4sxonasK\/RkXcGrdPo1EUTENU42TAswaQnuQkDKkVWb5Na8FQBA2F1oii4yNBY2qAtSQxBdRSApFssppKU4gkFMfX8O3o64Go9nxbfJOWN\/XWih5\/oCW+x8tb6vL0NkpbXw8cd3a8D3h0w57f\/Pzwcdm5YhXomy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:where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nzr3w9ws.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><section class=\"nx-scene nx-es-scene\" data-scene=\"text\" data-ground=\"none\" data-es-org=\"grf\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-scene-title\"><div class=\"nx-scene-intro nx-es-intro\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 Foresight Nexus<\/p><span class=\"nx-scene-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 id=\"nx-scene-title\" class=\"nx-scene-title\">Strategic scenarios<\/h1><p class=\"nx-scene-lede\">Scenarios are structured descriptions of plausible alternative futures, built so that an institution can test its strategy against conditions it does not expect. They are not forecasts and carry no probability. Their worth lies in widening the range of futures that decision-makers take seriously, exposing hidden assumptions and preparing options in advance. This page sets out how scenario work is designed, how it succeeds or fails inside institutions, and who uses it.<\/p><div class=\"nx-actions\"><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/write-to-us\/contact\/\">Make an enquiry <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/topics\/\">Back to Topics<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-1-sec\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Register<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-1\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Strategic scenarios on the record.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-es-fig\" data-es-layout=\"dossier\"><div class=\"nx-hero-panel\"><div class=\"nx-register\"><div class=\"nx-register-head\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\"><strong>Dossier<\/strong><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Foresight Nexus \u00b7 topic<\/span><\/div><ol class=\"nx-register-rows\"><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-question\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">The question<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\">4 mechanisms<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-field\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Field<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\">hexagonal field plate<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-indicators\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Indicators<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\"><span class=\"nx-register-num\">6<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-sources\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Sources<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\"><span class=\"nx-register-num\">6<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-decisions\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Decision holders<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\"><span class=\"nx-register-num\">4<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-methods\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Methods<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\"><span class=\"nx-register-num\">4<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-question\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">The question<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-2\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Strategic scenarios: how the risk develops.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Plausible alternative futures. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-cells\" data-cols=\"2\"><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"m12.83 2.18a2 2 0 0 0-1.66 0L2.6 6.08a1 1 0 0 0 0 1.83l8.58 3.91a2 2 0 0 0 1.66 0l8.58-3.9a1 1 0 0 0 0-1.83Z\"\/><path d=\"m22 17.65-9.17 4.16a2 2 0 0 1-1.66 0L2 17.65\"\/><path d=\"m22 12.65-9.17 4.16a2 2 0 0 1-1.66 0L2 12.65\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Drivers and critical uncertainties<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Scenario design starts by separating predetermined elements, such as cohorts already born, from critical uncertainties whose direction is open and whose impact is large. The choice of uncertainties shapes everything that follows, so it is documented and challenged.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><circle cx=\"6\" cy=\"19\" r=\"3\"\/><path d=\"M9 19h8.5a3.5 3.5 0 0 0 0-7h-11a3.5 3.5 0 0 1 0-7H15\"\/><circle cx=\"18\" cy=\"5\" r=\"3\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Divergent, consistent futures<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Each scenario follows a coherent logic from today to the horizon. Consistency checks remove combinations that cannot coexist; divergence ensures the set spans futures that would call for different responses.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"12\" r=\"10\"\/><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"12\" r=\"6\"\/><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"12\" r=\"2\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Testing strategy, not choosing a future<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Policies and plans are wind-tunnelled against every scenario. A strategy that works in only one future is fragile; one that holds across the set, or can be adapted in time, is robust.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"4.5\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"m10.2 6.3-3.9 3.9\"\/><circle cx=\"4.5\" cy=\"12\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"M7 12h10\"\/><circle cx=\"19.5\" cy=\"12\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"m13.8 17.7 3.9-3.9\"\/><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"19.5\" r=\"2.5\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Capture and fatigue<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Scenarios fail when they are written to confirm an agreed plan, when a preferred scenario quietly becomes the forecast, or when the set is never refreshed. Ownership by a decision-holder and a review schedule keep them in use.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-field\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Geography<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-3\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Hazards and exposure in the Arctic.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Daytime surface heat, population density and rain over the Arctic, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-canvas-wrap\"><div class=\"nx-cmap-field\" data-nx-map=\"ctx-field\" data-cmap=\"arctic:risk\" data-ml-points=\"on\" data-ml-feeds=\"eonet|https:\/\/eonet.gsfc.nasa.gov\/api\/v3\/events\" data-ml-src=\"risk\" data-ml-plan=\"p-04ea0d72\" data-ml-relief=\"1.3\" data-ml-view=\"3d\" data-ml-ctx=\"theme:risk\" data-ml-list=\"gibs.health.lstd gibs.health.people gibs.water.imerg gibs.water.flood gibs.energy.fires gibs.biodiversity.ssta ev.eonet ev.usgs r.imerg f.ens f.flood r.goese gx.nhc r.hls\" data-ml-tools=\"inspect measure compare export\"><div class=\"nx-wm\" data-nx-water=\"ctx-risk\" data-wm-domain=\"ctx-risk\" data-wm-tiles=\"on\" data-wm-flat=\"on\" data-wm-focus=\"-180,58,180,90\" data-ws-live=\"off\" data-claim=\"INTEGRATED\" data-wm-panel=\"closed\" data-wm-mode=\"2d\"><div class=\"nx-wm-stage\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"application\" aria-roledescription=\"interactive map\" aria-label=\"Hazards and exposure, the Arctic: satellite and model layers from NASA on a 3D terrain of ASTER GDEM elevation. Arrow keys move; with Shift they turn and tilt in 3D; plus and minus zoom, 0 resets; I inspects, question mark lists the keys.\" aria-describedby=\"nx-wm-help\"><canvas class=\"nx-wm-canvas\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/canvas><p class=\"nx-wm-noscript\">The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.<\/p><div class=\"nx-wm-presets\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Quick views\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"lstd||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Surface heat<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"people||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Population<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"imerg||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Rain now<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"flood||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Floods this week<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-panel\" id=\"nx-wm-panel\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Map layers\"><div class=\"nx-wm-panel-head\"><p class=\"nx-wm-panel-title\">Layers <span class=\"nx-wm-count\">3<\/span><\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon nx-wm-panel-close\" data-wm-act=\"panel\" aria-label=\"Close the layer list\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3.5 3.5l9 9M12.5 3.5l-9 9\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-panel-body\"><div class=\"nx-wm-group\"><p class=\"nx-wm-group-title\">Hazards and exposure, for this page<\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"lstd\" aria-pressed=\"true\" data-wm-z=\"20\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"0.8\" data-wm-short=\"Land temperature, day\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA LANCE\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA LANCE VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"lstd\">14 Sep 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\" data-wm-unit=\"\u00b0C\">Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"lstd\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.health.lstd\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA LANCE<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-09-14<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 1 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"people\" aria-pressed=\"true\" data-wm-z=\"21\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"0.8\" data-wm-short=\"Population density\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)\" data-wm-kind=\"Census-based estimate, static (2020)\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Population density, 2020<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University) Gridded Population of the World v4.11 \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"people\">static<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"estimated\" data-wm-lic=\"CC BY 4.0\" data-wm-unit=\"people\/km\u00b2\">Estimated<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"people\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.health.people\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Estimated<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CC BY 4.0<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 1 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"imerg\" aria-pressed=\"true\" data-wm-z=\"22\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-short=\"Precipitation\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA GES DISC\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite estimate, near real time\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Precipitation rate, daily mean<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA GES DISC GPM IMERG \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"imerg\">12 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"estimated\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\">Estimated<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"imerg\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.water.imerg\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Estimated<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>GPM IMERG (NASA GES DISC)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA GES DISC<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite estimate, near real time<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-12<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 2 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite estimate, near real time. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"flood\" aria-pressed=\"false\" data-wm-z=\"23\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-short=\"Flood water\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA LANCE\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Flood water, 3-day composite<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA LANCE VIIRS Global Flood Product \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"flood\">14 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\">Observed (clouds leave gaps)<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"flood\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.water.flood\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed (clouds leave gaps)<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA LANCE<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-14<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 250 m grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"fires\" aria-pressed=\"false\" data-wm-z=\"24\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"1\" data-wm-breaks=\"10,50,200\" data-wm-short=\"Fires and flares\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA LANCE FIRMS\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Active fires and thermal anomalies<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA LANCE FIRMS VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"fires\">13 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\" data-wm-unit=\"MW\">Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"fires\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.energy.fires\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA LANCE FIRMS<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-13<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 500 m grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"ssta\" aria-pressed=\"false\" data-wm-z=\"25\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"0.85\" data-wm-short=\"Marine heat (anomaly)\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA JPL PO.DAAC\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite analysis\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Sea surface temperature anomaly<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA JPL PO.DAAC GHRSST MUR25 \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"ssta\">12 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\" data-wm-unit=\"\u00b0C\">Observed<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"ssta\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.biodiversity.ssta\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>GHRSST MUR25 (NASA JPL PO.DAAC)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA JPL PO.DAAC<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite analysis<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-12<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 2 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite analysis of how far sea temperature departs from its usual value for the date shown; a marine heat indicator, not a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.coral-bleaching\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Corals expelling their algal partners under heat stress, turning white and often dying, with loss of reef fisheries and shore protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\">coral bleaching<\/a> alert.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-rail\" role=\"toolbar\" aria-orientation=\"vertical\" aria-label=\"Map controls\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon nx-wm-open\" data-wm-act=\"panel\" aria-controls=\"nx-wm-panel\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-label=\"Layers\" title=\"Layers\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M8 2.5l-6.5 3.5 6.5 3.5 6.5-3.5zm-6.5 6.5 6.5 3.5 6.5-3.5m-13 2.8 6.5 3.5 6.5-3.5\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-act=\"tools\" aria-controls=\"nx-wm-menu\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-label=\"Expert tools\" title=\"Expert tools\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" 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point<kbd>I<\/kbd><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-menu-item\" role=\"menuitemcheckbox\" aria-checked=\"false\" data-wm-tool=\"measure\">Measure distance<kbd>M<\/kbd><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-menu-item\" role=\"menuitemcheckbox\" aria-checked=\"false\" data-wm-tool=\"compare\">Compare two dates<kbd>C<\/kbd><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-menu-item\" role=\"menuitem\" data-wm-tool=\"share\">Copy a link to this view<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-menu-item\" role=\"menuitem\" data-wm-tool=\"png\">Export as PNG with credits<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-menu-item\" role=\"menuitem\" data-wm-tool=\"keys\">Keyboard shortcuts<kbd>?<\/kbd><\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-keys\" role=\"dialog\" aria-label=\"Keyboard shortcuts\" hidden><p class=\"nx-wm-keys-title\">Keyboard, with the map focused<\/p><dl class=\"nx-wm-keys-list\"><\/dl><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon nx-wm-keys-close\" data-wm-tool=\"keys\" aria-label=\"Close the shortcuts\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3.5 3.5l9 9M12.5 3.5l-9 9\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div><p class=\"nx-wm-hint\" hidden>Hold Ctrl or \u2318 and scroll to zoom<\/p><p class=\"nx-wm-toolbar\" role=\"status\" hidden><\/p><div class=\"nx-wm-tip\" role=\"tooltip\" hidden><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-pin\" hidden><div class=\"nx-wm-pin-head\"><p class=\"nx-wm-pin-title\"><\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-act=\"unpin\" aria-label=\"Close the card\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3.5 3.5l9 9M12.5 3.5l-9 9\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-pin-chart\"><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-pin-body\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-dock\"><div class=\"nx-wm-time\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Imagery date\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-step=\"prev\" aria-label=\"One day earlier\">\u2039<\/button><p class=\"nx-wm-time-label\">Latest available<\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-step=\"next\" aria-label=\"One day later\">\u203a<\/button><span class=\"nx-wm-track\" role=\"slider\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Imagery date, up to 30 days back\" aria-valuemin=\"0\" aria-valuemax=\"30\" aria-valuenow=\"30\" aria-valuetext=\"Latest available\"><\/span><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-latest\" data-wm-step=\"latest\" aria-pressed=\"true\">Latest<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-chips\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Legends\"><\/div><p class=\"nx-wm-attrib\">NASA GIBS \/ EOSDIS \u00b7 ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) \u00b7 Blue Marble (NASA) \u00b7 \u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) \u00b7 Natural Earth<\/p><div class=\"nx-wm-legends\" aria-live=\"polite\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-container nx-wm-below\"><p class=\"nx-wm-status\" role=\"status\">Loading the latest NASA imagery.<\/p><p id=\"nx-wm-help\" class=\"nx-wm-help\">Drag to move. Ctrl or \u2318 and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.<\/p><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>Hazards and exposure, framed on the Arctic.<\/span><span data-honesty=\"true\">Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.<\/span><\/p><details class=\"nx-wm-credits\"><summary><span class=\"nx-wm-credits-line\">Data: NASA GIBS \u00b7 ASTER GDEM \u00b7 Blue Marble \u00b7 <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.openstreetmap.org\/copyright\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors<\/a> \u00b7 Natural Earth \u00b7 NASA EONET \u00b7 U.S. Geological Survey \u00b7 NASA GPM IMERG Early<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-credits-more\">Sources and licences<\/span><\/summary><p class=\"nx-wm-credit\"><ul class=\"nx-wm-credit-list\"><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gibs.field-layers\">We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gibs.water-layers\">We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.lance.viirs-water\">VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"sedac.gpw-v4\">Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7927\/H49C6VHW\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.7927\/H49C6VHW<\/a>. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gpm.imerg\">GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.lance.firms\">NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.podaac.ghrsst-mur\">GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa-meti.aster-gdem-v3\">ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA\/METI\/AIST\/Japan Spacesystems and U.S.\/Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5067\/ASTER\/ASTGTM.003\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5067\/ASTER\/ASTGTM.003<\/a>. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"naturalearth.all-scales\">Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.naturalearthdata.com\/about\/terms-of-use\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Public domain<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gibs.reference-osm\">\u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.openstreetmap.org\/copyright\" rel=\"noopener\">ODbL<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.earth-observatory.blue-marble\">Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li>Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, \u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.<\/li><li><\/li><li>Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.<\/li><li>Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.<\/li><li>Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.<\/li><li>Live: NASA GPM IMERG Early. We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).<\/li><li>NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).<\/li><li>River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.<\/li><li>Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https:\/\/open-meteo.com\/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/).<\/li><li>Optional layers (11 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nx-wm-credit\"><strong>Layers and dates<\/strong><\/p><ul class=\"nx-wm-credit-list\"><li>Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"lstd\">14 Sep 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"people\">static<\/span><\/li><li>Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"imerg\">12 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"flood\">14 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"fires\">13 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"ssta\">12 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/p><\/details><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot nx-live-slot--map\" data-nxf-slot=\"map\" data-nxf-kind=\"map\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/grf\/R04\/topics\/strategic-scenarios\/#map\" data-nxf-title=\"Foresight Nexus live map\" data-nxf-height=\"560\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-band=\"auto\" data-band-id=\"nx-band-1\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-label=\"Indicators, Monitor, Sources, Policy scenarios\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-hm-band nx-band\" data-nx-tabs=\"true\" data-active=\"p1\"><div class=\"nx-tablist nx-hm-tabs\" role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Indicators, Monitor, Sources, Policy scenarios\"><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-1\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-indicators\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-key=\"p1\">Indicators<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-2\" aria-controls=\"nx-s-5-sec\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p2\">Monitor<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-3\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-sources\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p3\">Sources<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-4\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-instrument\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p4\">Policy scenarios<\/button><\/div><section id=\"nx-sec-indicators\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-4\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Indicators<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-4\" class=\"nx-section-title\">What is measured, and how well.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Scenario sets in current use by government<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">count of published sets<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">annual<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Published foresight reports<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Published statistics<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Policies and strategies tested against a scenario set<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">count per planning cycle<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">per cycle<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Cabinet and ministry planning records<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Published statistics<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Interval between scenario refreshes<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">months<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">per set<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Publication record<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Published statistics<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Participant range in scenario exercises<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">persons by sector, region and age group<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">per exercise<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Workshop records<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Signposts tracked against each scenario<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">count of signposts<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">quarterly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Signpost register<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Strategies citing scenario evidence<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">share of strategy documents<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">annual<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Document analysis<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">ESTIMATED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"indicators\" data-nxf-kind=\"indicator\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/grf\/R04\/topics\/strategic-scenarios\/#indicators\" data-nxf-title=\"Indicators\" data-nxf-height=\"520\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-5-sec\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-5\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Monitor<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-5\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Policy wind tunnel.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><figure class=\"nx-fk nx-cx\" data-fk=\"cx-foresight-windtunnel\" data-cx=\"foresight.windtunnel\" data-variant=\"section\" aria-label=\"Policy wind tunnel: illustrative console with example names and values\"><div class=\"nx-fk-head\"><div class=\"nx-fk-heading\"><h3 class=\"nx-fk-title\">Policy wind tunnel<\/h3><p class=\"nx-fk-sub\">Strategic scenarios \u00b7 Scenario set B \u00b7 Policy: POL-56<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-actions\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-fk-btn\" data-fk-act=\"menu\" aria-haspopup=\"true\" aria-expanded=\"false\" hidden><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 4v11\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><path d=\"M5 20h14\"\/><\/svg>Export<\/button><ul class=\"nx-fk-menu\" data-fk-menu=\"true\" hidden><li><button type=\"button\" data-fk-act=\"export-png\">Image<small>PNG of the map or chart<\/small><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" data-fk-act=\"export-csv\">Data<small>CSV of the figure&#8217;s values<\/small><\/button><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-cx-status\"><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"near\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>Fails in one scenario<\/span><span class=\"nx-cx-prod\">GRF \u00b7 Foresight Nexus<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-cx-grid\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel nx-cx-p\" data-w=\"4\" data-t=\"matrix\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel-head\"><div><h4 class=\"nx-fk-panel-title\">Policy performance by scenario<\/h4><p class=\"nx-fk-panel-sub\">0 fails to 100 robust<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-chart\"><svg class=\"nx-fk-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 520 110\" width=\"520\" height=\"110\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMidYMid meet\" aria-label=\"Policy performance by scenario\" data-fk-chart=\"cx-foresight-windtunnel-heat\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><\/div><p class=\"nx-fk-note\">Higher is more robust. Example scores.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-panel nx-cx-p\" data-w=\"2\" data-t=\"queue\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel-head\"><div><h4 class=\"nx-fk-panel-title\">Signposts to monitor<\/h4><\/div><\/div><ol class=\"nx-cx-q\"><li><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"near\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>S-1<\/span><span class=\"nx-cx-qb\"><span class=\"nx-cx-qt\">Trade restrictions on inputs<\/span><span class=\"nx-cx-qm\">triggers adaptation 2<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-cx-age\">quarterly<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"info\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>S-2<\/span><span class=\"nx-cx-qb\"><span class=\"nx-cx-qt\">Cost of sensors<\/span><span class=\"nx-cx-qm\">triggers scale-up<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-cx-age\">annual<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-tip\" aria-hidden=\"true\" hidden><\/div><figcaption class=\"nx-fk-cap\"><span>Policy wind tunnel: the screen&#8217;s structure, terms and states for Strategic scenarios.<\/span><span data-honesty=\"true\">Example names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-sources\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-6\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Sources<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-6\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Where the evidence comes from.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it gives<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">IPCC AR6 Scenario Database (hosted by IIASA)<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Quantified emissions, energy and land pathways from integrated assessment models assessed by the IPCC<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Free with attribution, database licence terms<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">SSP Database (IIASA)<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Population, urbanisation and economic projections for each shared socioeconomic pathway<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Free with registration, IIASA terms<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">IEA World Energy Outlook scenarios<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Stated policies, announced pledges and net zero pathways for energy supply and demand<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">IEA terms, part free and part licensed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">NGFS climate scenarios<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Transition and physical risk scenarios used by central banks and supervisors<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Free with attribution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">US National Intelligence Council Global Trends<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Long-range scenarios on global structural forces, published each presidential term<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Public domain, US government work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">UK Ministry of Defence Global Strategic Trends<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Long-horizon trend analysis and alternative futures for defence and security planning<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Open Government Licence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"evidence\" data-nxf-kind=\"evidence\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/grf\/R04\/topics\/strategic-scenarios\/#evidence\" data-nxf-title=\"Sources\" data-nxf-height=\"520\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-instrument\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-ns-layout=\"es-wide\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-7\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">07<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Policy scenarios<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-7\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Three families of instruments side by side against the baseline, each with its own lag and adoption speed, under the coverage and compliance you set; effect sizes are teaching values to replace with evidence. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast. The map on this page shows The Arctic; the model itself is not tied to a place.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><figure class=\"nx-in nx-fk\" id=\"nx-in-foresight-topics-strategic-scenarios-0\" data-nxi=\"policy\" data-nxi-id=\"policy\" data-nxi-z=\"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\" aria-label=\"Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information\"><div class=\"nx-in-body\"><div class=\"nx-in-main\"><div class=\"nx-in-tabs\" data-nxi-tabs=\"true\" aria-label=\"Views of the model\" hidden><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"result\">Result<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"fan\">Uncertainty<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"tornado\">Sensitivity<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"loops\">Loops<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-in-stage\" id=\"nx-in-foresight-topics-strategic-scenarios-0-stage\" data-nxi-stage=\"true\" data-view=\"result\"><svg class=\"nx-in-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 720 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Outcome by option\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><\/div><p class=\"nx-in-tip\" data-nxi-tip=\"true\" aria-live=\"polite\"><\/p><div class=\"nx-in-bar\" data-nxi-bar=\"true\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Play over time\" hidden><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-prev=\"true\" aria-label=\"Step back\">&#8249;<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-play=\"true\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Play<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-next=\"true\" aria-label=\"Step forward\">&#8250;<\/button><span class=\"nx-in-step\" data-nxi-step=\"true\" aria-live=\"polite\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-in-side\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Controls<\/p><div class=\"nx-in-ctl\" data-nxi-ctl=\"true\"><dl class=\"nx-in-pv\"><div><dt>Baseline trend of the outcome<\/dt><dd>2.0% a year<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Coverage of the instrument<\/dt><dd>70%<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Compliance<\/dt><dd>75%<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Effect size, against the teaching value<\/dt><dd>100%<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Years ahead<\/dt><dd>20 years<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Readouts<\/p><dl class=\"nx-in-out\" data-nxi-out=\"true\" aria-live=\"polite\"><div><dt>Largest reduction at the horizon<\/dt><dd>Regulation<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Its reduction against the baseline<\/dt><dd>21%<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><\/div><details class=\"nx-in-more\"><summary>Numbers, methods and sources<\/summary><div class=\"nx-in-more-in\"><div class=\"nx-in-tblw\" data-nxi-table=\"true\"><table class=\"nx-in-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Regulation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Economic incentive<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Information and capacity<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">0<\/th><td>100.0<\/td><td>99.5<\/td><td>98.8<\/td><td>99.1<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">1<\/th><td>102.0<\/td><td>101.2<\/td><td>100.1<\/td><td>99.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2<\/th><td>104.0<\/td><td>102.5<\/td><td>101.1<\/td><td>99.9<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">3<\/th><td>106.1<\/td><td>103.5<\/td><td>101.6<\/td><td>100.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">4<\/th><td>108.2<\/td><td>103.7<\/td><td>101.8<\/td><td>100.7<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">5<\/th><td>110.4<\/td><td>103.2<\/td><td>101.7<\/td><td>102.1<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">6<\/th><td>112.6<\/td><td>102.0<\/td><td>101.6<\/td><td>103.9<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">7<\/th><td>114.9<\/td><td>100.4<\/td><td>101.6<\/td><td>105.9<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">8<\/th><td>117.2<\/td><td>99.2<\/td><td>102.1<\/td><td>108.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">9<\/th><td>119.5<\/td><td>98.6<\/td><td>102.9<\/td><td>110.1<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">10<\/th><td>121.9<\/td><td>98.9<\/td><td>104.2<\/td><td>112.3<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">11<\/th><td>124.3<\/td><td>99.7<\/td><td>105.7<\/td><td>114.5<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">12<\/th><td>126.8<\/td><td>101.1<\/td><td>107.4<\/td><td>116.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">13<\/th><td>129.4<\/td><td>102.7<\/td><td>109.4<\/td><td>119.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">14<\/th><td>131.9<\/td><td>104.5<\/td><td>111.4<\/td><td>121.6<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">15<\/th><td>134.6<\/td><td>106.5<\/td><td>113.5<\/td><td>124.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">16<\/th><td>137.3<\/td><td>108.5<\/td><td>115.7<\/td><td>126.5<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">17<\/th><td>140.0<\/td><td>110.7<\/td><td>118.0<\/td><td>129.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">18<\/th><td>142.8<\/td><td>112.9<\/td><td>120.4<\/td><td>131.6<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">19<\/th><td>145.7<\/td><td>115.1<\/td><td>122.8<\/td><td>134.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">20<\/th><td>148.6<\/td><td>117.4<\/td><td>125.2<\/td><td>136.9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-csv=\"true\" hidden>Download the numbers (CSV)<\/button><h4 class=\"nx-h4\">Methods<\/h4><ol class=\"nx-in-meth\"><li>Tools of government <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan<\/span><\/li><li>Carrots, sticks and sermons <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction<\/span><\/li><li>Diffusion of innovations <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press<\/span><\/li><li>Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333<\/span><\/li><li>One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley<\/span><\/li><\/ol><h4 class=\"nx-h4\">Data<\/h4><p class=\"nx-p\">The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page&#8217;s map can draw:<\/p><ul class=\"nx-in-src\"><li>Borders <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Natural Earth<\/span><\/li><li>Cities <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Natural Earth<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/details><figcaption class=\"nx-caption\">Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information. Illustrative teaching model: it runs on the values set by the controls, not on measured data. Methods: Tools of government (Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan); Carrots, sticks and sermons (Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction); Diffusion of innovations (Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press).<\/figcaption><div class=\"nx-in-pls\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium<\/p><ul class=\"nx-in-pl\" aria-label=\"Where this instrument connects across the pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Experiments<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Built in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/foundry\/\">Foresight Nexus in Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Tested at<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/universe\/\">Foresight Nexus in Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Codified in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/\">Systemic Risks in Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Published in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/reports\/\">Foresight Nexus in Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Taught in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/\">Faculty of Risk Science and Methods in Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><span class=\"nx-in-keep\" hidden><i data-c=\"c1\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c2\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c4\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c5\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c6\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l0\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l1\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l2\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l5\"><\/i><i data-c=\"h3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"neg\"><\/i><i data-c=\"on0\"><\/i><i data-c=\"on1\"><\/i><i data-l=\"0\"><\/i><i data-l=\"1\"><\/i><i data-l=\"2\"><\/i><i data-l=\"3\"><\/i><i data-l=\"4\"><\/i><i data-l=\"5\"><\/i><i data-on=\"0\"><\/i><i data-on=\"1\"><\/i><i data-pol=\"p\"><\/i><i data-pol=\"n\"><\/i><i data-k=\"R\"><\/i><i data-k=\"B\"><\/i><i data-k=\"dash\"><\/i><i data-dash=\"true\"><\/i><i data-view=\"result\"><\/i><i data-nxi-live=\"on\"><\/i><i data-nxi-live=\"off\"><\/i><i class=\"nx-in-svg nx-in-grid nx-in-ax nx-in-tk nx-in-at nx-in-ln nx-in-band nx-in-lbl nx-in-lk nx-in-ref nx-in-reft nx-in-mk nx-in-x nx-in-rect nx-in-val nx-in-rowl nx-in-cl nx-in-arrow nx-in-pol nx-in-cln nx-in-loop nx-in-edge nx-in-node nx-in-nl nx-in-reach nx-in-trib nx-in-agent nx-in-flow nx-in-legend nx-in-sw nx-in-note nx-in-loops nx-in-3d nx-in-cv nx-in-field nx-in-fl nx-in-fv nx-in-range nx-in-btn nx-in-err nx-in-tbl nx-in-cite\"><\/i><\/span><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-band=\"auto\" data-band-id=\"nx-band-2\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-label=\"Decisions, Implementation, Core questions, Twin and cascade simulator\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-hm-band nx-band\" data-nx-tabs=\"true\" data-active=\"p1\"><div class=\"nx-tablist nx-hm-tabs\" role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Decisions, Implementation, Core questions, Twin and cascade simulator\"><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-1\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-decisions\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-key=\"p1\">Decisions<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-2\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-instrument-2\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p2\">Implementation<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-3\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-core-questions\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p3\">Core questions<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-4\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-twin\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p4\">Twin and cascade simulator<\/button><\/div><section id=\"nx-sec-decisions\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-8\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">08<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Decisions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-8\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Who decides, and what the evidence serves.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Foresight Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\" data-lv=\"ledger\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Who decides<\/th><th scope=\"col\">The question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence this page serves<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Cabinet offices and prime ministers&#8217; strategy units<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">Whether a national strategy holds across plausible futures, or needs contingent options<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Scenario sets with their uncertainties and assumptions, wind-tunnel results and the signposts to watch<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Central banks and prudential supervisors<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">Which climate and macro-financial scenarios to use in supervisory exercises<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Scenario narratives, their parameter choices and their coverage of severe but plausible conditions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Ministries of defence and foreign affairs<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">Which capabilities and partnerships remain sound across alternative security environments<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Alternative futures with the drivers that separate them and the institutional responses each calls for<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Energy ministries and system operators<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">Which investments hold across energy transition pathways<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Published pathways compared on demand, technology and policy assumptions<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-4\">Outputs this topic produces<\/h3><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Foresight outlooks with scenario sets, drivers and assumptions stated<\/li><li>Scenario learning protocols for workshops and policy wind-tunnelling<\/li><li>Signpost registers that track which scenario conditions are emerging<\/li><li>Comparisons of scenario sets published by different institutions<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-instrument-2\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-ns-layout=\"es-wide\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-9\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">09<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Implementation<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-9\" class=\"nx-section-title\">From mandate to evaluation, by pillar.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The steps an instrument takes from mandate to evaluation, each with the pillar that runs it, and the decisions that stay with the authority. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Arctic; the model itself is not tied to a place.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><figure class=\"nx-in nx-fk\" id=\"nx-in-foresight-topics-strategic-scenarios-1\" aria-label=\"From mandate to evaluation, by pillar\"><ol class=\"nx-in-steps\"><li><strong>Mandate and problem framing<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Competent authority (outside the programme)<\/span><br>A competent authority frames the problem and the mandate under its own rules. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Evidence and system model<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Foundry<\/span><br>The system is modelled with its feedbacks, data and stated limits. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">OECD (2014), principle 2<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Options appraised with scenarios<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Foundry<\/span><br>Instruments are compared under scenarios, with uncertainty shown. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Hood (1983)<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Exercise with stakeholders<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Universe<\/span><br>The options are tested in an exercise with those who would implement and bear them. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">OECD (2014), principle 3<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Standard or guidance drafted<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Nexus Standards<\/span><br>What works is codified as a standard or guidance, open to comment. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Nexus Standards process<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Decision by the authority<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Competent authority (outside the programme)<\/span><br>The authority decides, outside the programme, with the evidence on record. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Capacity and training<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Risk Academy<\/span><br>Those who implement are trained on the decided instrument and its data. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Sendai Framework (2015), priority 2<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Monitoring and public report<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Reports<\/span><br>Indicators are published with sources, limits and corrections. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">OECD (2014), principle 5<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Evaluation and revision<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Nexus Standards<\/span><br>Results return to the standard and the model: the cycle closes. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)<\/span><\/li><\/ol><h4 class=\"nx-h4\">Methods<\/h4><ol class=\"nx-in-meth\"><li>Policy cycle <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press<\/span><\/li><li>Governance of critical risks <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">OECD (2014), Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks<\/span><\/li><li>Layered drawing of directed graphs <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11<\/span><\/li><\/ol><figcaption class=\"nx-caption\">From mandate to evaluation, by pillar: the steps as recorded, each with its pillar; sources as cited on each step.<\/figcaption><div class=\"nx-in-pls\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium<\/p><ul class=\"nx-in-pl\" aria-label=\"Where this instrument connects across the pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Experiments<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Built in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/foundry\/\">Foresight Nexus in Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Tested at<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/universe\/\">Foresight Nexus in Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Codified in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/\">Systemic Risks in Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Published in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/reports\/\">Foresight Nexus in Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Taught in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/\">Faculty of Risk Science and Methods in Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><span class=\"nx-in-keep\" hidden><i data-c=\"c1\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c2\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c4\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c5\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c6\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l0\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l1\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l2\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l5\"><\/i><i data-c=\"h3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"neg\"><\/i><i data-c=\"on0\"><\/i><i data-c=\"on1\"><\/i><i data-l=\"0\"><\/i><i data-l=\"1\"><\/i><i data-l=\"2\"><\/i><i data-l=\"3\"><\/i><i data-l=\"4\"><\/i><i data-l=\"5\"><\/i><i data-on=\"0\"><\/i><i data-on=\"1\"><\/i><i data-pol=\"p\"><\/i><i data-pol=\"n\"><\/i><i data-k=\"R\"><\/i><i data-k=\"B\"><\/i><i data-k=\"dash\"><\/i><i data-dash=\"true\"><\/i><i data-view=\"result\"><\/i><i data-nxi-live=\"on\"><\/i><i data-nxi-live=\"off\"><\/i><i class=\"nx-in-svg nx-in-grid nx-in-ax nx-in-tk nx-in-at nx-in-ln nx-in-band nx-in-lbl nx-in-lk nx-in-ref nx-in-reft nx-in-mk nx-in-x nx-in-rect nx-in-val nx-in-rowl nx-in-cl nx-in-arrow nx-in-pol nx-in-cln nx-in-loop nx-in-edge nx-in-node nx-in-nl nx-in-reach nx-in-trib nx-in-agent nx-in-flow nx-in-legend nx-in-sw nx-in-note nx-in-loops nx-in-3d nx-in-cv nx-in-field nx-in-fl nx-in-fv nx-in-range nx-in-btn nx-in-err nx-in-tbl nx-in-cite\"><\/i><\/span><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-core-questions\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-10\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">10<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Core questions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-10\" class=\"nx-section-title\">What practitioners ask.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Which driving forces are both highly uncertain and highly important for the question at hand?<\/li><li>How many scenarios are useful, and how different should they be?<\/li><li>How can scenarios include surprises and discontinuities without becoming implausible?<\/li><li>How should quantitative models and qualitative narratives be combined?<\/li><li>How can scenarios be used to test strategies rather than simply describe futures?<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-twin\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-span=\"wide\" data-ns-layout=\"twin\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-11\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">11<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Twin and cascade simulator<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-11\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Exercise a cascade in strategic scenarios with the people who decide.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Assembled from the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> area profile <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/future-generations-and-long-term-risk\/\">Future generations and long-term risk<\/a>: the hazards it names, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and communities that carry the loss, the controls and institutions that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating event and step through the cascade to see where mandates meet and which decisions fall to whom. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise for dialogue, not a forecast, an assessment or a position. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/system-builder\/\">System Builder<\/a>.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-ns-twin\" data-ns-data=\"nx-twin-es-topics-strategic-scenarios-R04\" data-ns-credits=\"Nexus Standards registry and area profiles; Nexus Hazard Standard NHS-1 1.1.0\"><div class=\"nx-ns-twin-static\"><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Hazards<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h111\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.geopolitical.nuclear-war\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons\" data-td=\"Use of many nuclear weapons between states, killing people through blast, fire and fallout and wrecking cities, infrastructure, health systems and the world economy.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H111\" data-tr=\"draft\">Nuclear war<\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h47\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.structural.dam-failure\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Structural and civil failure\" data-td=\"Breach or collapse of a dam, sending a sudden flood wave downstream.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H47\" data-tr=\"draft\">Dam failure<\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h61\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.cascade.financial-contagion\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Cascading failure\" data-td=\"Spread of a financial shock between institutions, markets and countries through shared exposures and loss of confidence.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H61\" data-tr=\"draft\">Financial contagion<\/a><\/li><li>Cryptographically relevant quantum computer<\/li><li>River flood (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Flash flood (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Mass displacement (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Nuclear detonation (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Health-system overload (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Data breach (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Mass account takeover (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Widespread power outage (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Currency crisis (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Nuclear winter (set off downstream)<\/li><li>High-altitude electromagnetic pulse (set off downstream)<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Systems and couplings<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/future-generations-and-long-term-risk\/\">Future generations and long-term risk<\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/global-catastrophic-and-existential-risk-standards\/\">Global catastrophic and existential risk standards<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Mechanism<\/span><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/climate-adaptation-and-transition-risk\/\">Climate adaptation and transition risk<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Mechanism<\/span><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/global-and-systemic-risk\/\">Global and systemic risk<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Common driver<\/span><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/digital-ai\/frontier-technology-risk-standards\/\">Frontier technology risk standards<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Mechanism<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Controls<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li><code>NS-0<\/code> Constitution and principles<\/li><li><code>NS-9<\/code> Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)<\/li><li><code>NS-10<\/code> Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)<\/li><li><code>NS-11<\/code> Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)<\/li><li><code>NS-13<\/code> Standards development process (open proposals, review, versioning, adoption)<\/li><li><code>NRS-U12<\/code> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> platform profile: Foresight Nexus<\/li><li><code>NRS-H26<\/code> Hazard family: Land and wetland degradation (NHS-1 eco.land)<\/li><li><code>NRS-H92<\/code> Hazard family: Ageing and degraded infrastructure (NHS-1 infra.ageing)<\/li><li><code>NRS-P4<\/code> Foresight, horizon scanning and strategy<\/li><li><code>NRS-H11<\/code> Hazard family: Coastal and sea-level hazards (NHS-1 water.coastal)<\/li><li><code>NRS-H31<\/code> Hazard family: Persistent and bioaccumulative substances (NHS-1 poll.persistent)<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Observation<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Our World in Data datasets (listed for reference)<\/li><li>CMIP6 climate projections (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)<\/li><li>World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)<\/li><li>Number of countries with mechanisms in place to enhance policy coherence of sustainable development<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Example geography<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells<\/li><li>Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day\/Night Band), NASA GIBS<\/li><li>Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS<\/li><li>Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS<\/li><li>Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-band=\"auto\" data-band-id=\"nx-band-3\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-label=\"Mechanisms, Instruments and commitments, Methods and limits, Methods\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-hm-band nx-band\" data-nx-tabs=\"true\" data-active=\"p1\"><div class=\"nx-tablist nx-hm-tabs\" role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Mechanisms, Instruments and commitments, Methods and limits, Methods\"><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-1\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-mechanisms\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-key=\"p1\">Mechanisms<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-2\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-audience\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p2\">Instruments and commitments<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-3\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-methods-and-limits\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p3\">Methods and limits<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-4\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-methods\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p4\">Methods<\/button><\/div><section id=\"nx-sec-mechanisms\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-12\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">12<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanisms<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-12\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Drivers and dynamics.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><p class=\"nx-p\">Scenario practice has deep roots in military planning and corporate strategy, where it helped organisations prepare for shocks that conventional forecasts missed. A common approach identifies the critical uncertainties, the forces that matter most and are least predictable, and builds contrasting futures around them. Other approaches start from a desired or feared end state and work backwards, or develop scenarios through participatory processes with stakeholders.<\/p><p class=\"nx-p\">Scenarios change decisions when they are developed with the people who will use them, when they are challenging but plausible, and when they are used to test specific strategies. They fail when they are too close to the planning baseline an institution already uses, when one scenario is treated as the preferred future, or when they are produced by outsiders and handed over without engagement.<\/p><p class=\"nx-p\">Why now: institutions face compound shocks that single forecasts did not anticipate, and scenario sets are increasingly used to test strategies. Foresight Nexus builds scenario sets with the people who will use them, and those scenarios set the conditions for Universe exercises, always labelled as scenarios.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-audience\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-13\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">13<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Instruments and commitments<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-13\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How strategic scenarios is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The instruments, mandates, actors and accountability arrangements a policymaker, diplomat or development agency works with, citing the agreements that set them. Structures follow the frameworks named. Any state or progress drawn is illustrative, not a record.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-au\" data-au-voice=\"governance\" data-au-n=\"1\"><figure class=\"nx-au-c\" data-au-fig=\"instrument-matrix\"><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Policy instrument matrix<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-au-what\">The kinds of instrument available on strategic scenarios, by level of government and cooperation.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Local<\/th><th scope=\"col\">National<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Regional<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Global<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Regulatory<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Zoning, building codes<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Laws, standards, licensing<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Harmonised rules<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Conventions and treaties<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Economic<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Local levies, grants<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Budget lines, taxes, insurance schemes<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Risk pools, regional funds<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Financing mechanisms<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Information<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Local warnings<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Disclosure, early warning, statistics<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Data sharing arrangements<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Global monitoring and reporting<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Institutional<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Local committees<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Lead agencies, coordination councils<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Regional bodies and secretariats<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Multilateral mandates<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Cooperative<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Community agreements<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Partnership compacts<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Memoranda and joint programmes<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Agreements and joint commitments<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><figcaption class=\"nx-caption\"><span>A typology after the OECD Recommendation on the Governance of Critical Risks; examples of instrument types, not an inventory of any country&#8217;s measures.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-chips nx-au-fw\" aria-label=\"Frameworks cited\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction \u00b7 UNDRR<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Paris Agreement \u00b7 UNFCCC<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals \u00b7 United Nations<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">International Health Regulations \u00b7 WHO<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-methods-and-limits\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-14\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">14<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Methods and limits<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-14\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How it is approached.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ol class=\"nx-rows\"><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">01<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Driver analysis<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Structured identification of forces, ranked by importance and uncertainty.<\/p><\/div><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">02<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Narrative development<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Coherent, internally consistent stories that describe how each future could emerge.<\/p><\/div><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">03<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Quantified scenarios<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Models from <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/stem\/scenario-stress\/\">scenario design and stress testing<\/a> and complex <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and agent-based modelling add consistency and scale where data allows.<\/p><\/div><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">04<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Limits<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Scenarios reflect the imagination and biases of those who build them, cannot be validated in advance, and can be misread as forecasts if not carefully labelled.<\/p><\/div><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-methods\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-15\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">15<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Methods<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-15\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-methods\" data-limits=\"true\"><ol class=\"nx-mledger\" aria-label=\"Methods\"><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/stem\/scenario-stress\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Scenario design and stress testing<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Exploratory scenario development \u00b7 Policy wind-tunnelling<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/scenario-stress\/\" aria-label=\"Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons: Scenario design and stress testing\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/stem\/decision-analysis\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Decision analysis under uncertainty<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Robust decision making \u00b7 Dynamic adaptive policy pathways \u00b7 Structured expert elicitation<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/decision-analysis\/\" aria-label=\"Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons: Decision analysis under uncertainty\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/stem\/complex-systems\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Complex systems and agent-based modelling<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Systems mapping of drivers \u00b7 Agent-based exploration of social change<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/complex-systems\/\" aria-label=\"Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons: Complex systems and agent-based modelling\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/stem\/forecasting\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Forecasting and time-series analysis<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Aggregated judgemental forecasting \u00b7 Probabilistic population projections<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/forecasting\/\" aria-label=\"Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons: Forecasting and time-series analysis\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><\/ol><aside class=\"nx-limits\" aria-label=\"What the methods cannot say\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">What the methods cannot say<\/span><p class=\"nx-limits-text\">Scenarios describe what could happen, not what will. They carry no probabilities, and assigning likelihoods to them changes their purpose. A scenario set reflects the participants, the moment and the questions it was built for, and may omit combinations that later occur. Quantified pathways inherit the structure of the models behind them. Foresight Nexus documents scenario sets and methods; the choice of strategy belongs to the government or institution that owns it.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-band=\"auto\" data-band-id=\"nx-band-4\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-label=\"Connected, Questions\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-hm-band nx-band\" data-nx-tabs=\"true\" data-active=\"p1\"><div class=\"nx-tablist nx-hm-tabs\" role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Connected, Questions\"><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-4-tab-1\" aria-controls=\"nx-s-16-sec\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-key=\"p1\">Connected<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-4-tab-2\" aria-controls=\"nx-s-17-sec\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p2\">Questions<\/button><\/div><section id=\"nx-s-16-sec\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-16\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-4-tab-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">16<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Connected<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-16\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Where this page leads across the Consortium.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/risk-management\/topics\/scenario-and-stress-testing\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Related topic<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\"><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr><\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Scenario and stress testing<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Foresight scenarios are exploratory; risk testing still needs transparent assumptions.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-17-sec\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-17\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-4-tab-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">17<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Questions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-17\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Questions and answers.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-faq\"><details><summary>Why do scenarios not say which future is most likely?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Because their purpose is to test decisions against a range of futures, not to bet on one. Assigning probabilities invites planners to prepare for the likeliest case and ignore the rest, which is the failure scenarios exist to prevent.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>How many scenarios should a set contain?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Practice commonly uses three or four: enough to span distinct futures, few enough to hold in mind. Sets built as a central case with variants tend to collapse into a forecast with sensitivities.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>What is wind-tunnelling?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Testing an existing or proposed policy against each scenario in turn, asking whether it still achieves its aims and what would need to change. It turns scenarios from narratives into a check on strategy.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Are climate pathways the same as strategic scenarios?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">They share methods but differ in purpose. Climate pathways quantify emissions and impacts for assessment; strategic scenarios explore the wider conditions an institution may face. Many exercises now combine both.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Why not just pick the most likely scenario?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Because scenarios are designed to test strategies across different futures. Choosing one defeats their purpose.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Are scenarios the same as stress tests?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">They are related. A stress test applies a severe scenario to a system to see how it performs; scenarios more broadly explore how the future could unfold.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>How many scenarios should there be?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Often three or four, enough to show real differences without overwhelming users, but practice varies with purpose.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Who reviews coverage of this topic?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Published analysis is designed to be reviewed by a named subject reviewer, to cite its references and to include independent specialist voices. Where specialists disagree, the disagreement is reported rather than resolved by omission.<\/div><\/details><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Contribute evidence from this page.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\"><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Global Risks Forum<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Foresight Nexus<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Foresight Outlook<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Scenario and Stress-Test<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GRF<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Global Risks Forum<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See every way to contribute<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/grf\/foresight\/topics\/strategic-scenarios#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section nx-deeper-band\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-skforum-com-foresight-topics-strategic-scenarios-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><nav class=\"nx-deeper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-skforum-com-foresight-topics-strategic-scenarios-h\" data-nx-deeper=\"3\" data-nx-resources=\"1 1 1\"><h2 class=\"nx-deeper-h\" id=\"nx-deeper-skforum-com-foresight-topics-strategic-scenarios-h\">Go deeper<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/model\/scenarios\/heatwave\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Documentation:<\/span> Heatwave<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/systems-nexus\/global-catastrophic-risk\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Academy:<\/span> Global catastrophic risks<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/global-and-systemic-risk\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Standards:<\/span> Global and systemic risk<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-closing\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-close-18\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Foresight Nexus<\/span><h2 id=\"nx-close-18\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Bring a governance question to the Forum.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Information and enquiries are open today. 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They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? window.__nxMount(document.currentScript) : null;<\/script>\n\n\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/topics\/strategic-scenarios\/#faq\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/topics\/strategic-scenarios\/#webpage\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Why do scenarios not say which future is most likely?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Because their purpose is to test decisions against a range of futures, not to bet on one. 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