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:where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nmc8zpjc.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><section class=\"nx-scene nx-es-scene\" data-scene=\"text\" data-ground=\"none\" data-es-org=\"grf\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-scene-title\"><div class=\"nx-scene-intro nx-es-intro\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 Foresight Nexus<\/p><span class=\"nx-scene-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 id=\"nx-scene-title\" class=\"nx-scene-title\">Demographic and social futures<\/h1><p class=\"nx-scene-lede\">Population ageing, migration, urbanisation, changing households and shifts in trust and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-cohesion\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The strength of relationships and the sense of solidarity among members of a society.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">social cohesion<\/a> are the slow variables of the future. Some are largely set by people already born; others, such as migration and trust, can turn quickly. This page sets out how demographic projections and social measures are used in foresight, how institutions misread slow change until it becomes urgent, and which ministries and parliaments hold the decisions.<\/p><div class=\"nx-actions\"><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/write-to-us\/contact\/\">Make an enquiry <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/topics\/\">Back to Topics<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-1-sec\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Canvas<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-1\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How the work runs.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-es-fig\" data-es-layout=\"dag\"><div class=\"nx-hero-canvas\"><div class=\"nx-plate\" data-wide=\"true\"><div class=\"nx-plate-label\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\"><strong>Systems<\/strong> \u00b7 around this subject<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Illustrative<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-figure-frame\" data-scene=\"true\"><figure class=\"nx-fk nx-cx\" data-fk=\"cx-foresight-scan\" data-cx=\"foresight.scan\" data-variant=\"section\" aria-label=\"Horizon scanning board: illustrative console with example names and values\"><div class=\"nx-fk-head\"><div class=\"nx-fk-heading\"><h3 class=\"nx-fk-title\">Horizon scanning board<\/h3><p class=\"nx-fk-sub\">Demographic and social futures \u00b7 Horizon 2040 \u00b7 Round 5<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-actions\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-fk-btn\" data-fk-act=\"menu\" aria-haspopup=\"true\" aria-expanded=\"false\" hidden><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 4v11\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><path d=\"M5 20h14\"\/><\/svg>Export<\/button><ul class=\"nx-fk-menu\" data-fk-menu=\"true\" hidden><li><button type=\"button\" data-fk-act=\"export-png\">Image<small>PNG of the map or chart<\/small><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" data-fk-act=\"export-csv\">Data<small>CSV of the figure&#8217;s values<\/small><\/button><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-cx-status\"><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"info\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>Sensemaking<\/span><span class=\"nx-cx-prod\">GRF \u00b7 Foresight Nexus<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-cx-grid\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel nx-cx-p\" data-w=\"4\" data-t=\"table\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel-head\"><div><h4 class=\"nx-fk-panel-title\">Signals<\/h4><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-tablewrap\" data-fk-view=\"table:cx-foresight-scan-t0\"><table class=\"nx-fk-table\" data-fk-table=\"cx-foresight-scan-t0\" aria-label=\"Signals\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c0\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c0\">Signal<\/button><\/th><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c1\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c1\">Domain<\/button><\/th><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c2\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c2\">Novelty<\/button><\/th><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c3\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c3\">Impact<\/button><\/th><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c4\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c4\">Cluster<\/button><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-fk-key=\"cx-foresight-scan:r0-0\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"row\" aria-selected=\"false\" aria-current=\"true\" data-cur=\"true\"><td>Insurers exit high-risk postcodes<\/td><td>Finance<\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"near\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>Medium<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"not\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>High<\/span><\/td><td>Protection retreat<\/td><\/tr><tr data-fk-key=\"cx-foresight-scan:r0-1\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"row\" aria-selected=\"false\"><td>Cheap sensors in informal settlements<\/td><td>Technology<\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"met\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>High<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"near\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>Medium<\/span><\/td><td>Citizen data<\/td><\/tr><tr data-fk-key=\"cx-foresight-scan:r0-2\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"row\" aria-selected=\"false\"><td>Heat limits outdoor work hours<\/td><td>Labour<\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"near\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>Medium<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"not\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>High<\/span><\/td><td>Heat economy<\/td><\/tr><tr data-fk-key=\"cx-foresight-scan:r0-3\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"row\" aria-selected=\"false\"><td>Synthetic media in elections<\/td><td>Information<\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"info\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>Low<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"not\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>High<\/span><\/td><td>Trust erosion<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-panel nx-cx-p\" data-w=\"2\" data-t=\"matrix\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel-head\"><div><h4 class=\"nx-fk-panel-title\">Driver ranking<\/h4><p class=\"nx-fk-panel-sub\">impact vs uncertainty<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-chart\"><svg class=\"nx-fk-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 324 138\" width=\"324\" height=\"138\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMidYMid meet\" aria-label=\"Driver ranking\" data-fk-chart=\"cx-foresight-scan-heat\" data-nx-z=\"pdbdToMwGIDhWyHfeR0tf8MAJ5oYz\/UCaqm0ocDSNbrdvWEbcxRwAkcE1nzp2yeQJYYfjJNTQ1GVgpGsBOeQAo5CcI7tFZx2BaI1E41OoZJ5rjhkr9WOMpNs2h+zZHwIify\/h7zXjGvzMDpFK\/rB1XkzxD3N8T1rDq9zyJ6UrKjh3ZDiOkEwrhScbz9LVPJjCuyAPhvN97IQBu0ZrR8rF7mXRWUKAmkXMReyRHP2u5mbSSwF4V22tT1ti4TgfMvciBTiEBzB2+Hnx7o9BdhYaV9U9Q550NWdT4i7qk2xqAzbZfhfZYSE68o6+emy+LbsHnyEx+DfOBN1o5riuNgeW\/b4vj3u2Qf+SvtBWndCJFhljy17fN+e9OwXl3X2k2V+NMc+jsfsn3nVFJruxHJ7YtmTufZbstJ+kHa1J6vsiWVP5r73i8s6+8myYDvHHpNoDP+FN7tGSSPZfrG+Z+l7c7\/6GLsr+Yd116\/junffs\/y9+\/5Bz39h2+lG1mUKql3f\/w8wGRt7N7E\/\"><\/svg><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-panel nx-cx-p\" data-w=\"6\" data-t=\"kv\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel-head\"><div><h4 class=\"nx-fk-panel-title\">Scenario axes<\/h4><\/div><\/div><dl class=\"nx-fk-dl\"><div><dt>Axis 1<\/dt><dd>cooperation \u00b7 fragmentation<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Axis 2<\/dt><dd>slow \u00b7 fast technological change<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Scenarios<\/dt><dd>four narratives, not forecasts<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Use<\/dt><dd>wind tunnel policies against each<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-tip\" aria-hidden=\"true\" hidden><\/div><figcaption class=\"nx-fk-cap\"><span>Horizon scanning board: the screen&#8217;s structure, terms and states for Demographic and social futures.<\/span><span data-honesty=\"true\">Example names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-caption\"><strong>Fig.<\/strong><span>Horizon scanning board: example names and illustrative values, not a record or a live system.<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-question\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">The question<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-2\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Demographic and social futures: how the risk develops.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Ageing, migration, trust and cohesion. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-cells\" data-cols=\"2\"><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M16 21v-2a4 4 0 0 0-4-4H6a4 4 0 0 0-4 4v2\"\/><circle cx=\"9\" cy=\"7\" r=\"4\"\/><path d=\"M22 21v-2a4 4 0 0 0-3-3.87\"\/><path d=\"M16 3.13a4 4 0 0 1 0 7.75\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Momentum and cohorts<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Today&#8217;s age structure carries forward for decades: much of the next generation&#8217;s working-age population is already born. Projections are most reliable for people alive now and least reliable for future births and migration.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><circle cx=\"6\" cy=\"19\" r=\"3\"\/><path d=\"M9 19h8.5a3.5 3.5 0 0 0 0-7h-11a3.5 3.5 0 0 1 0-7H15\"\/><circle cx=\"18\" cy=\"5\" r=\"3\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Migration as the swing variable<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Migration responds to conflict, climate, labour demand and policy, and can change faster than fertility or mortality. It is often the biggest source of uncertainty in national projections.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M14 9a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H6l-4 4V4c0-1.1.9-2 2-2h8a2 2 0 0 1 2 2z\"\/><path d=\"M18 9h2a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v11l-4-4h-6a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-1\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Trust and cohesion<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Trust in institutions and in other people shapes compliance, collective action and the capacity to absorb shocks. It tends to erode slowly and can collapse quickly after perceived unfairness or failure.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><line x1=\"3\" x2=\"21\" y1=\"22\" y2=\"22\"\/><line x1=\"6\" x2=\"6\" y1=\"18\" y2=\"11\"\/><line x1=\"10\" x2=\"10\" y1=\"18\" y2=\"11\"\/><line x1=\"14\" x2=\"14\" y1=\"18\" y2=\"11\"\/><line x1=\"18\" x2=\"18\" y1=\"18\" y2=\"11\"\/><polygon points=\"12 2 20 7 4 7\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Slow change, late response<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Pensions, health <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, schools and housing are built for an age structure that shifts gradually. Institutions often respond only when pressure becomes acute, though the evidence was visible long before.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-field\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Geography<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-3\" class=\"nx-section-title\">People and exposure in the Arctic.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Population density, night lights and flood water over the Arctic, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-canvas-wrap\"><div class=\"nx-cmap-field\" data-nx-map=\"ctx-field\" data-cmap=\"arctic:social\" data-ml-points=\"on\" data-ml-feeds=\"eonet|https:\/\/eonet.gsfc.nasa.gov\/api\/v3\/events\" data-ml-src=\"social\" data-ml-plan=\"p-258e20f2\" data-ml-relief=\"1.3\" data-ml-view=\"3d\" data-ml-ctx=\"theme:social\" data-ml-list=\"gibs.health.people gibs.energy.ntl gibs.health.lstd gibs.water.flood gibs.energy.fires gibs.health.no2 ev.eonet r.hbase ev.usgs f.ens r.goese r.labels r.urbex r.tropomi\" data-ml-tools=\"inspect measure aoi export\"><div class=\"nx-wm\" data-nx-water=\"ctx-social\" data-wm-domain=\"ctx-social\" data-wm-tiles=\"on\" data-wm-flat=\"on\" data-wm-focus=\"-180,58,180,90\" data-ws-live=\"off\" data-claim=\"INTEGRATED\" data-wm-panel=\"closed\" data-wm-mode=\"2d\"><div class=\"nx-wm-stage\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"application\" aria-roledescription=\"interactive map\" aria-label=\"People and exposure, the Arctic: satellite and model layers from NASA on a 3D terrain of ASTER GDEM elevation. Arrow keys move; with Shift they turn and tilt in 3D; plus and minus zoom, 0 resets; I inspects, question mark lists the keys.\" aria-describedby=\"nx-wm-help\"><canvas class=\"nx-wm-canvas\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/canvas><p class=\"nx-wm-noscript\">The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.<\/p><div class=\"nx-wm-presets\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Quick views\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"flood,people||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">People and floods<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"flood,ntl||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Floods and lights<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"ntl,people||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Lights and people<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"people||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Population<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-panel\" id=\"nx-wm-panel\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Map layers\"><div class=\"nx-wm-panel-head\"><p class=\"nx-wm-panel-title\">Layers <span class=\"nx-wm-count\">3<\/span><\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon nx-wm-panel-close\" data-wm-act=\"panel\" aria-label=\"Close the layer list\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3.5 3.5l9 9M12.5 3.5l-9 9\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-panel-body\"><div class=\"nx-wm-group\"><p class=\"nx-wm-group-title\">People and exposure, for this page<\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"people\" aria-pressed=\"true\" data-wm-z=\"20\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"0.8\" data-wm-short=\"Population density\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)\" data-wm-kind=\"Census-based estimate, static (2020)\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Population density, 2020<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University) Gridded Population of the World v4.11 \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"people\">static<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"estimated\" data-wm-lic=\"CC BY 4.0\" data-wm-unit=\"people\/km\u00b2\">Estimated<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"people\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.health.people\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Estimated<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CC BY 4.0<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 1 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"ntl\" aria-pressed=\"true\" data-wm-z=\"21\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"0.9\" data-wm-short=\"Night lights\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA LAADS DAAC\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Night-time lights, daily<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA LAADS DAAC VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"ntl\">12 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\" data-wm-unit=\"nW\/(cm\u00b2 sr)\">Observed<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"ntl\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.energy.ntl\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA LAADS DAAC<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-12<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 500 m grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"lstd\" aria-pressed=\"false\" data-wm-z=\"22\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"0.8\" data-wm-short=\"Land temperature, day\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA LANCE\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA LANCE VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"lstd\">14 Sep 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\" data-wm-unit=\"\u00b0C\">Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"lstd\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.health.lstd\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA LANCE<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-09-14<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 1 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"flood\" aria-pressed=\"true\" data-wm-z=\"23\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-short=\"Flood water\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA LANCE\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Flood water, 3-day composite<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA LANCE VIIRS Global Flood Product \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"flood\">14 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\">Observed (clouds leave gaps)<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"flood\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.water.flood\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed (clouds leave gaps)<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA LANCE<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-14<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 250 m grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"fires\" aria-pressed=\"false\" data-wm-z=\"24\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"1\" data-wm-breaks=\"10,50,200\" data-wm-short=\"Fires and flares\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA LANCE FIRMS\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Active fires and thermal anomalies<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA LANCE FIRMS VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"fires\">13 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\" data-wm-unit=\"MW\">Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"fires\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.energy.fires\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA LANCE FIRMS<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-13<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 500 m grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"no2\" aria-pressed=\"false\" data-wm-z=\"25\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"0.8\" data-wm-short=\"Nitrogen dioxide\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA GES DISC\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Nitrogen dioxide, lower atmosphere column<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA GES DISC OMI Aura \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"no2\">10 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\" data-wm-unit=\"10\u00b9\u2075 molecules\/cm\u00b2\">Observed (clouds leave gaps)<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"no2\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.health.no2\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed (clouds leave gaps)<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>OMI Aura (NASA GES DISC)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA GES DISC<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-10<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 2 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite column of nitrogen dioxide in the lower atmosphere on the day shown, mostly from combustion; not a ground-level concentration or a health warning.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-rail\" role=\"toolbar\" aria-orientation=\"vertical\" aria-label=\"Map controls\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon 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data-wm-tool=\"png\">Export as PNG with credits<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-menu-item\" role=\"menuitem\" data-wm-tool=\"xt\" data-wm-xt=\"NxAjSJ6JoGGZsXu22d+kvA4nR9AJ6Njy+\/Xy2FIyELw=\">More expert tools<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-menu-item\" role=\"menuitem\" data-wm-tool=\"keys\">Keyboard shortcuts<kbd>?<\/kbd><\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-keys\" role=\"dialog\" aria-label=\"Keyboard shortcuts\" hidden><p class=\"nx-wm-keys-title\">Keyboard, with the map focused<\/p><dl class=\"nx-wm-keys-list\"><\/dl><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon nx-wm-keys-close\" data-wm-tool=\"keys\" aria-label=\"Close the shortcuts\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3.5 3.5l9 9M12.5 3.5l-9 9\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div><p class=\"nx-wm-hint\" hidden>Hold Ctrl or \u2318 and scroll to zoom<\/p><p class=\"nx-wm-toolbar\" role=\"status\" hidden><\/p><div class=\"nx-wm-tip\" role=\"tooltip\" hidden><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-pin\" hidden><div class=\"nx-wm-pin-head\"><p class=\"nx-wm-pin-title\"><\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-act=\"unpin\" aria-label=\"Close the card\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3.5 3.5l9 9M12.5 3.5l-9 9\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-pin-chart\"><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-pin-body\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-dock\"><div class=\"nx-wm-time\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Imagery date\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-step=\"prev\" aria-label=\"One day earlier\">\u2039<\/button><p class=\"nx-wm-time-label\">Latest available<\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-step=\"next\" aria-label=\"One day later\">\u203a<\/button><span class=\"nx-wm-track\" role=\"slider\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Imagery date, up to 30 days back\" aria-valuemin=\"0\" aria-valuemax=\"30\" aria-valuenow=\"30\" aria-valuetext=\"Latest available\"><\/span><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-latest\" data-wm-step=\"latest\" aria-pressed=\"true\">Latest<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-chips\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Legends\"><\/div><p class=\"nx-wm-attrib\">NASA GIBS \/ EOSDIS \u00b7 ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) \u00b7 Blue Marble (NASA) \u00b7 \u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) \u00b7 Natural Earth<\/p><div class=\"nx-wm-legends\" aria-live=\"polite\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-container nx-wm-below\"><p class=\"nx-wm-status\" role=\"status\">Loading the latest NASA imagery.<\/p><p id=\"nx-wm-help\" class=\"nx-wm-help\">Drag to move. Ctrl or \u2318 and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.<\/p><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>People and exposure, framed on the Arctic.<\/span><span data-honesty=\"true\">Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.<\/span><\/p><details class=\"nx-wm-credits\"><summary><span class=\"nx-wm-credits-line\">Data: NASA GIBS \u00b7 ASTER GDEM \u00b7 Blue Marble \u00b7 <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.openstreetmap.org\/copyright\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors<\/a> \u00b7 Natural Earth \u00b7 NASA EONET \u00b7 CIESIN\/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASE \u00b7 U.S. Geological Survey<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-credits-more\">Sources and licences<\/span><\/summary><p class=\"nx-wm-credit\"><ul class=\"nx-wm-credit-list\"><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gibs.field-layers\">We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gibs.water-layers\">We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"sedac.gpw-v4\">Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7927\/H49C6VHW\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.7927\/H49C6VHW<\/a>. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.laads.black-marble\">VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.lance.viirs-water\">VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.lance.firms\">NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gesdisc.aura-omi-omps\">OMI nitrogen dioxide (Aura) and OMPS aerosol index (Suomi NPP), NASA; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa-meti.aster-gdem-v3\">ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA\/METI\/AIST\/Japan Spacesystems and U.S.\/Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5067\/ASTER\/ASTGTM.003\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5067\/ASTER\/ASTGTM.003<\/a>. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"naturalearth.all-scales\">Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.naturalearthdata.com\/about\/terms-of-use\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Public domain<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gibs.reference-osm\">\u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.openstreetmap.org\/copyright\" rel=\"noopener\">ODbL<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.earth-observatory.blue-marble\">Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li>Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, \u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.<\/li><li><\/li><li>Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.<\/li><li>Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.<\/li><li>Context: CIESIN\/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASE. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, and NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC): Global Human Built-up And Settlement Extent (HBASE) 2010; Seto, Guneralp and Hutyra 2012, Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030; Global Urban Heat Island (UHI) Data Set, 2013.<\/li><li>Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.<\/li><li>NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).<\/li><li>Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.<\/li><li>Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https:\/\/open-meteo.com\/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/).<\/li><li>Optional layers (9 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nx-wm-credit\"><strong>Layers and dates<\/strong><\/p><ul class=\"nx-wm-credit-list\"><li>Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"people\">static<\/span><\/li><li>Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"ntl\">12 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"lstd\">14 Sep 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"flood\">14 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"fires\">13 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Nitrogen dioxide, lower atmosphere column: OMI Aura, NASA GES DISC \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"no2\">10 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/p><\/details><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot nx-live-slot--map\" data-nxf-slot=\"map\" data-nxf-kind=\"map\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/grf\/R04\/topics\/demographic-and-social-futures\/#map\" data-nxf-title=\"Foresight Nexus live map\" data-nxf-height=\"560\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-band=\"auto\" data-band-id=\"nx-band-1\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-label=\"Indicators, Policy scenarios, Sources, Implementation\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-hm-band nx-band\" data-nx-tabs=\"true\" data-active=\"p1\"><div class=\"nx-tablist nx-hm-tabs\" role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Indicators, Policy scenarios, Sources, Implementation\"><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-1\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-indicators\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-key=\"p1\">Indicators<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-2\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-instrument\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p2\">Policy scenarios<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-3\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-sources\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p3\">Sources<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-4\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-instrument-2\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p4\">Implementation<\/button><\/div><section id=\"nx-sec-indicators\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-4\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Indicators<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-4\" class=\"nx-section-title\">What is measured, and how well.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Old-age dependency ratio<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">persons of pension age per hundred of working age<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">annual<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Population projections<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">MODELLED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Total fertility rate<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">births per woman<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">annual<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Civil registration and surveys<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Published statistics<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Net migration<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">persons per year<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">annual<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">National statistics and international estimates<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">ESTIMATED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Forcibly displaced population<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">persons<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">half-yearly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Refugee and displacement statistics<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Published statistics<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Width of population projection intervals<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">persons<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">per projection revision<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Probabilistic projections<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">MODELLED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Trust in national government<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">share of respondents<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">per survey wave<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Representative surveys<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Interpersonal trust<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">share of respondents<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">per survey wave<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Values surveys<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Young people not in employment, education or training<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">share of youth population<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">annual<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Labour force surveys<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Published statistics<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"indicators\" data-nxf-kind=\"indicator\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/grf\/R04\/topics\/demographic-and-social-futures\/#indicators\" data-nxf-title=\"Indicators\" data-nxf-height=\"520\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-instrument\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-ns-layout=\"es-wide\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-5\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Policy scenarios<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-5\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Three families of instruments side by side against the baseline, each with its own lag and adoption speed, under the coverage and compliance you set; effect sizes are teaching values to replace with evidence. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast. The map on this page shows The Arctic; the model itself is not tied to a place.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><figure class=\"nx-in nx-fk\" id=\"nx-in-ht-topics-demographic-and-social-futures-0\" data-nxi=\"policy\" data-nxi-id=\"policy\" data-nxi-z=\"lVXBbtw2EP2VwQAFHIAxJHmVNgJ6aIweDBRN4OYSGHuYpUYrwhQpkJTjjbH\/HlAStbTbS08rkJx5b+a9mX3BoIJmbPDWDiM5BmV8cNPAJvgG3KTZC1BGsgnqiT2QaUGZzrqBgrIGBfbWsA8nbPAfyYacsg0YGrgF8n4axvjMAx3sFCD0DN0UJscCjA1A0FnHkny4RoEjORo8Ng8vqFpsMDg2LQrUdGCNDX4iz1oZhvkCbDfns1OQdmAUOBkVsMFfgODE5FDgoAw272uBAz1jUxYCfeARm+K6FPhEemJsKoHaYlMK7BU2NwJbbMqzWDlI+8SOjpzRuF2PEoFLxzIOCbzYsDfwC\/SvxYJdFwv4b\/WMXmTow6gVGfkaPzv8f3j1ilcveB+LN3jcdcOkM6w\/u45lAK9+sAA6Uqx1LjowyV6ZIyyp\/02kSkyqC5N6YzLTi1Q+rKWXu7dceuvUj9lhicw3JueBeqb2AhiV9gk0Kb37j+KrBLAX2KlnbrF5QbvYc\/Zcgrnn46STu3luwJJR03E2iB85RhfXHyLZrVXSGjsoeZmWLPwmhZdZeJ2H312Gah4ySSNJFU5ZkrJekxRbkjJW4+fPj1VV784C7RTGKWRjdGAf\/qYht9Bf5I7sAzhuJ7lALrKmpm8qxOAs8C74PCgzxGEdztdWSA2XPbkQG\/686dg5OwC1iwIoMG6Qe+Uf00DDlTItPwsItqUT\/A5lUbxDsS2sz+uzwwnWHOdoKTv6iGNsy7EHr1KiwC9Wq6AkaaAQokwz9t02wjmjWxtrsxB66xncYgtu55tsBO+GUXOMXcTbhNsL1Mo8RhYPhShFuRcPpajm30oU4v3ycTMf3IjdcrBLN7XYiXK\/32pKcn4qMz3+SEVEngTfrfNs4limJh6cMkf\/Zk+BMnCVCoXBtqz1vK+hVV03eWXNu7iQUxMj+2q\/eeI+Z\/Bl8v2B5GMD0vrgQdvv7OCyuGYzR\/jR2YPmAUZ2XsWXV9kjzyEKGd9Ja4Kz+hWB2KXYmHJ\/3p8FGg5fVxdEPeUpr82v\/0Iezz8B\" aria-label=\"Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information\"><div class=\"nx-in-body\"><div class=\"nx-in-main\"><div class=\"nx-in-tabs\" data-nxi-tabs=\"true\" aria-label=\"Views of the model\" hidden><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"result\">Result<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"fan\">Uncertainty<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"tornado\">Sensitivity<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"loops\">Loops<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-in-stage\" id=\"nx-in-ht-topics-demographic-and-social-futures-0-stage\" data-nxi-stage=\"true\" data-view=\"result\"><svg class=\"nx-in-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 720 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Outcome by option\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><\/div><p class=\"nx-in-tip\" data-nxi-tip=\"true\" aria-live=\"polite\"><\/p><div class=\"nx-in-bar\" data-nxi-bar=\"true\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Play over time\" hidden><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-prev=\"true\" aria-label=\"Step back\">&#8249;<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-play=\"true\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Play<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-next=\"true\" aria-label=\"Step forward\">&#8250;<\/button><span class=\"nx-in-step\" data-nxi-step=\"true\" aria-live=\"polite\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-in-side\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Controls<\/p><div class=\"nx-in-ctl\" data-nxi-ctl=\"true\"><dl class=\"nx-in-pv\"><div><dt>Baseline trend of the outcome<\/dt><dd>2.0% a year<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Coverage of the instrument<\/dt><dd>70%<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Compliance<\/dt><dd>75%<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Effect size, against the teaching value<\/dt><dd>100%<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Years ahead<\/dt><dd>20 years<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Readouts<\/p><dl class=\"nx-in-out\" data-nxi-out=\"true\" aria-live=\"polite\"><div><dt>Largest reduction at the horizon<\/dt><dd>Regulation<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Its reduction against the baseline<\/dt><dd>21%<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><\/div><details class=\"nx-in-more\"><summary>Numbers, methods and sources<\/summary><div class=\"nx-in-more-in\"><div class=\"nx-in-tblw\" data-nxi-table=\"true\"><table class=\"nx-in-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Regulation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Economic incentive<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Information and capacity<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">0<\/th><td>100.0<\/td><td>99.5<\/td><td>98.8<\/td><td>99.1<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">1<\/th><td>102.0<\/td><td>101.2<\/td><td>100.1<\/td><td>99.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2<\/th><td>104.0<\/td><td>102.5<\/td><td>101.1<\/td><td>99.9<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">3<\/th><td>106.1<\/td><td>103.5<\/td><td>101.6<\/td><td>100.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">4<\/th><td>108.2<\/td><td>103.7<\/td><td>101.8<\/td><td>100.7<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">5<\/th><td>110.4<\/td><td>103.2<\/td><td>101.7<\/td><td>102.1<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">6<\/th><td>112.6<\/td><td>102.0<\/td><td>101.6<\/td><td>103.9<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">7<\/th><td>114.9<\/td><td>100.4<\/td><td>101.6<\/td><td>105.9<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">8<\/th><td>117.2<\/td><td>99.2<\/td><td>102.1<\/td><td>108.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">9<\/th><td>119.5<\/td><td>98.6<\/td><td>102.9<\/td><td>110.1<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">10<\/th><td>121.9<\/td><td>98.9<\/td><td>104.2<\/td><td>112.3<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">11<\/th><td>124.3<\/td><td>99.7<\/td><td>105.7<\/td><td>114.5<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">12<\/th><td>126.8<\/td><td>101.1<\/td><td>107.4<\/td><td>116.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">13<\/th><td>129.4<\/td><td>102.7<\/td><td>109.4<\/td><td>119.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">14<\/th><td>131.9<\/td><td>104.5<\/td><td>111.4<\/td><td>121.6<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">15<\/th><td>134.6<\/td><td>106.5<\/td><td>113.5<\/td><td>124.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">16<\/th><td>137.3<\/td><td>108.5<\/td><td>115.7<\/td><td>126.5<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">17<\/th><td>140.0<\/td><td>110.7<\/td><td>118.0<\/td><td>129.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">18<\/th><td>142.8<\/td><td>112.9<\/td><td>120.4<\/td><td>131.6<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">19<\/th><td>145.7<\/td><td>115.1<\/td><td>122.8<\/td><td>134.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">20<\/th><td>148.6<\/td><td>117.4<\/td><td>125.2<\/td><td>136.9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-csv=\"true\" hidden>Download the numbers (CSV)<\/button><h4 class=\"nx-h4\">Methods<\/h4><ol class=\"nx-in-meth\"><li>Tools of government <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan<\/span><\/li><li>Carrots, sticks and sermons <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction<\/span><\/li><li>Diffusion of innovations <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press<\/span><\/li><li>Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333<\/span><\/li><li>One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley<\/span><\/li><\/ol><h4 class=\"nx-h4\">Data<\/h4><p class=\"nx-p\">The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page&#8217;s map can draw:<\/p><ul class=\"nx-in-src\"><li>Borders <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Natural Earth<\/span><\/li><li>Cities <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Natural Earth<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/details><figcaption class=\"nx-caption\">Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information. Illustrative teaching model: it runs on the values set by the controls, not on measured data. Methods: Tools of government (Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan); Carrots, sticks and sermons (Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction); Diffusion of innovations (Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press).<\/figcaption><div class=\"nx-in-pls\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium<\/p><ul class=\"nx-in-pl\" aria-label=\"Where this instrument connects across the pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Experiments<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Built in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/foundry\/\">Foresight Nexus in Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Tested at<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/universe\/\">Foresight Nexus in Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Codified in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/\">Systemic Risks in Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Published in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/reports\/\">Foresight Nexus in Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Taught in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/\">Faculty of Risk Science and Methods in Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><span class=\"nx-in-keep\" hidden><i data-c=\"c1\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c2\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c4\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c5\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c6\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l0\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l1\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l2\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l5\"><\/i><i data-c=\"h3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"neg\"><\/i><i data-c=\"on0\"><\/i><i data-c=\"on1\"><\/i><i data-l=\"0\"><\/i><i data-l=\"1\"><\/i><i data-l=\"2\"><\/i><i data-l=\"3\"><\/i><i data-l=\"4\"><\/i><i data-l=\"5\"><\/i><i data-on=\"0\"><\/i><i data-on=\"1\"><\/i><i data-pol=\"p\"><\/i><i data-pol=\"n\"><\/i><i data-k=\"R\"><\/i><i data-k=\"B\"><\/i><i data-k=\"dash\"><\/i><i data-dash=\"true\"><\/i><i data-view=\"result\"><\/i><i data-nxi-live=\"on\"><\/i><i data-nxi-live=\"off\"><\/i><i class=\"nx-in-svg nx-in-grid nx-in-ax nx-in-tk nx-in-at nx-in-ln nx-in-band nx-in-lbl nx-in-lk nx-in-ref nx-in-reft nx-in-mk nx-in-x nx-in-rect nx-in-val nx-in-rowl nx-in-cl nx-in-arrow nx-in-pol nx-in-cln nx-in-loop nx-in-edge nx-in-node nx-in-nl nx-in-reach nx-in-trib nx-in-agent nx-in-flow nx-in-legend nx-in-sw nx-in-note nx-in-loops nx-in-3d nx-in-cv nx-in-field nx-in-fl nx-in-fv nx-in-range nx-in-btn nx-in-err nx-in-tbl nx-in-cite\"><\/i><\/span><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-sources\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-6\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Sources<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-6\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Where the evidence comes from.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it gives<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">UN World Population Prospects<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Population estimates and probabilistic projections by age and sex for every country<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">CC BY 3.0 IGO<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data Explorer<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Population projections by age, sex and education under the shared socioeconomic pathways<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Free with attribution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">UNHCR Refugee Data Finder<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Statistics on forcibly displaced and stateless people<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">IOM Migration Data Portal<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Compiled migration statistics and evidence on migration drivers<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Free with attribution, IOM terms<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Comparable measures of trust and its drivers across member countries<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">OECD terms, free with attribution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">World Values Survey<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Values, beliefs and interpersonal trust across waves and countries<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Free for non-commercial use with registration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">ILOSTAT<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Labour market statistics, including young people outside employment and education<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"evidence\" data-nxf-kind=\"evidence\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/grf\/R04\/topics\/demographic-and-social-futures\/#evidence\" data-nxf-title=\"Sources\" data-nxf-height=\"520\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-instrument-2\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-ns-layout=\"es-wide\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-7\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">07<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Implementation<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-7\" class=\"nx-section-title\">From mandate to evaluation, by pillar.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The steps an instrument takes from mandate to evaluation, each with the pillar that runs it, and the decisions that stay with the authority. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Arctic; the model itself is not tied to a place.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><figure class=\"nx-in nx-fk\" id=\"nx-in-ht-topics-demographic-and-social-futures-1\" aria-label=\"From mandate to evaluation, by pillar\"><ol class=\"nx-in-steps\"><li><strong>Mandate and problem framing<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Competent authority (outside the programme)<\/span><br>A competent authority frames the problem and the mandate under its own rules. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Evidence and system model<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Foundry<\/span><br>The system is modelled with its feedbacks, data and stated limits. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">OECD (2014), principle 2<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Options appraised with scenarios<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Foundry<\/span><br>Instruments are compared under scenarios, with uncertainty shown. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Hood (1983)<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Exercise with stakeholders<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Universe<\/span><br>The options are tested in an exercise with those who would implement and bear them. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">OECD (2014), principle 3<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Standard or guidance drafted<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Nexus Standards<\/span><br>What works is codified as a standard or guidance, open to comment. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Nexus Standards process<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Decision by the authority<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Competent authority (outside the programme)<\/span><br>The authority decides, outside the programme, with the evidence on record. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Capacity and training<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Risk Academy<\/span><br>Those who implement are trained on the decided instrument and its data. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Sendai Framework (2015), priority 2<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Monitoring and public report<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Reports<\/span><br>Indicators are published with sources, limits and corrections. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">OECD (2014), principle 5<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Evaluation and revision<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Nexus Standards<\/span><br>Results return to the standard and the model: the cycle closes. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)<\/span><\/li><\/ol><h4 class=\"nx-h4\">Methods<\/h4><ol class=\"nx-in-meth\"><li>Policy cycle <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press<\/span><\/li><li>Governance of critical risks <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">OECD (2014), Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks<\/span><\/li><li>Layered drawing of directed graphs <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11<\/span><\/li><\/ol><figcaption class=\"nx-caption\">From mandate to evaluation, by pillar: the steps as recorded, each with its pillar; sources as cited on each step.<\/figcaption><div class=\"nx-in-pls\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium<\/p><ul class=\"nx-in-pl\" aria-label=\"Where this instrument connects across the pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Experiments<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Built in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/foundry\/\">Foresight Nexus in Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Tested at<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/universe\/\">Foresight Nexus in Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Codified in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/\">Systemic Risks in Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Published in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/reports\/\">Foresight Nexus in Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Taught in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/\">Faculty of Risk Science and Methods in Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><span class=\"nx-in-keep\" hidden><i data-c=\"c1\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c2\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c4\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c5\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c6\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l0\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l1\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l2\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l5\"><\/i><i data-c=\"h3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"neg\"><\/i><i data-c=\"on0\"><\/i><i data-c=\"on1\"><\/i><i data-l=\"0\"><\/i><i data-l=\"1\"><\/i><i data-l=\"2\"><\/i><i data-l=\"3\"><\/i><i data-l=\"4\"><\/i><i data-l=\"5\"><\/i><i data-on=\"0\"><\/i><i data-on=\"1\"><\/i><i data-pol=\"p\"><\/i><i data-pol=\"n\"><\/i><i data-k=\"R\"><\/i><i data-k=\"B\"><\/i><i data-k=\"dash\"><\/i><i data-dash=\"true\"><\/i><i data-view=\"result\"><\/i><i data-nxi-live=\"on\"><\/i><i data-nxi-live=\"off\"><\/i><i class=\"nx-in-svg nx-in-grid nx-in-ax nx-in-tk nx-in-at nx-in-ln nx-in-band nx-in-lbl nx-in-lk nx-in-ref nx-in-reft nx-in-mk nx-in-x nx-in-rect nx-in-val nx-in-rowl nx-in-cl nx-in-arrow nx-in-pol nx-in-cln nx-in-loop nx-in-edge nx-in-node nx-in-nl nx-in-reach nx-in-trib nx-in-agent nx-in-flow nx-in-legend nx-in-sw nx-in-note nx-in-loops nx-in-3d nx-in-cv nx-in-field nx-in-fl nx-in-fv nx-in-range nx-in-btn nx-in-err nx-in-tbl nx-in-cite\"><\/i><\/span><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-band=\"auto\" data-band-id=\"nx-band-2\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-label=\"Decisions, Twin and cascade simulator, Core questions, Instruments and commitments\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-hm-band nx-band\" data-nx-tabs=\"true\" data-active=\"p1\"><div class=\"nx-tablist nx-hm-tabs\" role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Decisions, Twin and cascade simulator, Core questions, Instruments and commitments\"><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-1\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-decisions\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-key=\"p1\">Decisions<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-2\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-twin\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p2\">Twin and cascade simulator<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-3\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-core-questions\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p3\">Core questions<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-4\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-audience\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p4\">Instruments and commitments<\/button><\/div><section id=\"nx-sec-decisions\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-8\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">08<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Decisions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-8\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Who decides, and what the evidence serves.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Foresight Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\" data-lv=\"ledger\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Who decides<\/th><th scope=\"col\">The question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence this page serves<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Finance ministries and fiscal councils<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">How ageing and migration scenarios affect long-term fiscal sustainability<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Projection intervals and variants, with the assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration stated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Labour, social affairs and health ministries<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">How pension, care and health <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> should adapt to changing age structures<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Cohort projections, dependency measures and scenarios for care demand and workforce<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Interior and migration ministries<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">Which migration scenarios to plan reception and integration capacity for<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Migration scenarios with drivers, ranges and the signposts that would show which is unfolding<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Parliaments and parliamentary committees for the future<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">How to scrutinise demographic and social pressures that run beyond the electoral cycle<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Demographic outlooks, trust measures and the institutional choices they raise<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-4\">Outputs this topic produces<\/h3><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Demographic outlooks with projection intervals and scenario variants<\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-cohesion\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The strength of relationships and the sense of solidarity among members of a society.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social cohesion<\/a> signal reviews drawing on trust and survey evidence<\/li><li>Scenario learning protocols for ageing, migration and cohesion<\/li><li>Notes separating what is close to set from what depends on choices<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-twin\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-span=\"wide\" data-ns-layout=\"twin\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-9\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">09<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Twin and cascade simulator<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-9\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Exercise a cascade in demographic and social futures with the people who decide.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Assembled from the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> area profile <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/future-generations-and-long-term-risk\/\">Future generations and long-term risk<\/a>: the hazards it names, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and communities that carry the loss, the controls and institutions that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating event and step through the cascade to see where mandates meet and which decisions fall to whom. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise for dialogue, not a forecast, an assessment or a position. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/system-builder\/\">System Builder<\/a>.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-ns-twin\" data-ns-data=\"nx-twin-es-topics-demographic-and-social-futures-R04\" data-ns-credits=\"Nexus Standards registry and area profiles; Nexus Hazard Standard NHS-1 1.1.0\"><div class=\"nx-ns-twin-static\"><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Hazards<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h111\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.geopolitical.nuclear-war\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons\" data-td=\"Use of many nuclear weapons between states, killing people through blast, fire and fallout and wrecking cities, infrastructure, health systems and the world economy.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H111\" data-tr=\"draft\">Nuclear war<\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h47\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.structural.dam-failure\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Structural and civil failure\" data-td=\"Breach or collapse of a dam, sending a sudden flood wave downstream.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H47\" data-tr=\"draft\">Dam failure<\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h61\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.cascade.financial-contagion\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Cascading failure\" data-td=\"Spread of a financial shock between institutions, markets and countries through shared exposures and loss of confidence.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H61\" data-tr=\"draft\">Financial contagion<\/a><\/li><li>Cryptographically relevant quantum computer<\/li><li>River flood (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Flash flood (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Mass displacement (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Nuclear detonation (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Health-system overload (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Data breach (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Mass account takeover (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Widespread power outage (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Currency crisis (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Nuclear winter (set off downstream)<\/li><li>High-altitude electromagnetic pulse (set off downstream)<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Systems and couplings<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/future-generations-and-long-term-risk\/\">Future generations and long-term risk<\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/global-catastrophic-and-existential-risk-standards\/\">Global catastrophic and existential risk standards<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Mechanism<\/span><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/climate-adaptation-and-transition-risk\/\">Climate adaptation and transition risk<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Mechanism<\/span><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/global-and-systemic-risk\/\">Global and systemic risk<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Common driver<\/span><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/digital-ai\/frontier-technology-risk-standards\/\">Frontier technology risk standards<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Mechanism<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Controls<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li><code>NS-0<\/code> Constitution and principles<\/li><li><code>NS-9<\/code> Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)<\/li><li><code>NS-10<\/code> Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)<\/li><li><code>NS-11<\/code> Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)<\/li><li><code>NS-13<\/code> Standards development process (open proposals, review, versioning, adoption)<\/li><li><code>NRS-U12<\/code> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> platform profile: Foresight Nexus<\/li><li><code>NRS-H26<\/code> Hazard family: Land and wetland degradation (NHS-1 eco.land)<\/li><li><code>NRS-H92<\/code> Hazard family: Ageing and degraded infrastructure (NHS-1 infra.ageing)<\/li><li><code>NRS-P4<\/code> Foresight, horizon scanning and strategy<\/li><li><code>NRS-H11<\/code> Hazard family: Coastal and sea-level hazards (NHS-1 water.coastal)<\/li><li><code>NRS-H31<\/code> Hazard family: Persistent and bioaccumulative substances (NHS-1 poll.persistent)<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Observation<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Our World in Data datasets (listed for reference)<\/li><li>CMIP6 climate projections (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)<\/li><li>World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)<\/li><li>Number of countries with mechanisms in place to enhance policy coherence of sustainable development<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Example geography<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells<\/li><li>Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day\/Night Band), NASA GIBS<\/li><li>Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS<\/li><li>Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS<\/li><li>Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-core-questions\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-10\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">10<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Core questions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-10\" class=\"nx-section-title\">What practitioners ask.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>How will population ageing affect labour markets, public finances and care <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>How could migration patterns change with climate, conflict and economic opportunity?<\/li><li>What drives trust in institutions, and how could it erode or recover?<\/li><li>How do inequality and polarisation affect a society&#8217;s capacity to manage shocks?<\/li><li>How do generational differences shape future values and priorities?<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-audience\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-11\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">11<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Instruments and commitments<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-11\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How demographic and social futures is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The instruments, mandates, actors and accountability arrangements a policymaker, diplomat or development agency works with, citing the agreements that set them. Structures follow the frameworks named. Any state or progress drawn is illustrative, not a record.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-au\" data-au-voice=\"governance\" data-au-n=\"1\"><figure class=\"nx-au-c\" data-au-fig=\"instrument-matrix\"><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Policy instrument matrix<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-au-what\">The kinds of instrument available on demographic and social futures, by level of government and cooperation.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Local<\/th><th scope=\"col\">National<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Regional<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Global<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Regulatory<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Zoning, building codes<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Laws, standards, licensing<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Harmonised rules<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Conventions and treaties<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Economic<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Local levies, grants<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Budget lines, taxes, insurance schemes<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Risk pools, regional funds<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Financing mechanisms<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Information<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Local warnings<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Disclosure, early warning, statistics<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Data sharing arrangements<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Global monitoring and reporting<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Institutional<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Local committees<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Lead agencies, coordination councils<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Regional bodies and secretariats<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Multilateral mandates<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Cooperative<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Community agreements<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Partnership compacts<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Memoranda and joint programmes<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Agreements and joint commitments<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><figcaption class=\"nx-caption\"><span>A typology after the OECD Recommendation on the Governance of Critical Risks; examples of instrument types, not an inventory of any country&#8217;s measures.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-chips nx-au-fw\" aria-label=\"Frameworks cited\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction \u00b7 UNDRR<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Paris Agreement \u00b7 UNFCCC<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals \u00b7 United Nations<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">International Health Regulations \u00b7 WHO<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-band=\"auto\" data-band-id=\"nx-band-3\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-label=\"Mechanisms, Methods and limits, Methods, Questions\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-hm-band nx-band\" data-nx-tabs=\"true\" data-active=\"p1\"><div class=\"nx-tablist nx-hm-tabs\" role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Mechanisms, Methods and limits, Methods, Questions\"><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-1\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-mechanisms\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-key=\"p1\">Mechanisms<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-2\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-methods-and-limits\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p2\">Methods and limits<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-3\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-methods\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p3\">Methods<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-4\" aria-controls=\"nx-s-15-sec\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p4\">Questions<\/button><\/div><section id=\"nx-sec-mechanisms\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-12\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">12<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanisms<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-12\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Drivers and dynamics.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><p class=\"nx-p\">Demographic change is among the more predictable long-term forces, because the people who will be adults in coming decades are already born. Many countries are ageing as fertility falls and life expectancy rises, while others have young and growing populations. These patterns shape labour supply, public spending, care needs and political priorities. Migration links regions with different demographic profiles and is influenced by economic, environmental and political conditions.<\/p><p class=\"nx-p\">Social trends are less predictable. Trust in institutions, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-cohesion\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The strength of relationships and the sense of solidarity among members of a society.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">social cohesion<\/a> and polarisation can shift quickly in response to crises, information environments and perceptions of fairness. Societies with high trust and cohesion tend to manage collective crises more effectively, so these factors are central to resilience. Changes in information environments, including the spread of misinformation, are an active area of research.<\/p><p class=\"nx-p\">Why now: ageing, urbanisation and migration are reshaping exposure and capacity in most regions, slowly but predictably. Foresight Nexus convenes institutions to examine what these shifts mean for services and risks over decades, and records the questions for current mandates.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-methods-and-limits\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-13\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">13<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Methods and limits<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-13\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How it is approached.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ol class=\"nx-rows\"><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">01<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Demographic projection<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Cohort-based projections, drawing on <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/stem\/forecasting\/\">forecasting and time-series analysis<\/a>, estimate future population structures under stated assumptions.<\/p><\/div><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">02<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Social surveys<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Long-running surveys track values, trust and attitudes over time.<\/p><\/div><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">03<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Participatory foresight<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Engaging citizens and communities to explore social futures from their perspectives.<\/p><\/div><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">04<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Limits<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Projections depend on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration; social trends can reverse, and survey data may not capture marginalised groups.<\/p><\/div><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-methods\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-14\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">14<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Methods<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-14\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-methods\" data-limits=\"true\"><ol class=\"nx-mledger\" aria-label=\"Methods\"><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/stem\/forecasting\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Forecasting and time-series analysis<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Aggregated judgemental forecasting \u00b7 Probabilistic population projections<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/forecasting\/\" aria-label=\"Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons: Forecasting and time-series analysis\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/stem\/scenario-stress\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Scenario design and stress testing<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Exploratory scenario development \u00b7 Policy wind-tunnelling<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/scenario-stress\/\" aria-label=\"Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons: Scenario design and stress testing\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/stem\/complex-systems\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Complex systems and agent-based modelling<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Systems mapping of drivers \u00b7 Agent-based exploration of social change<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/complex-systems\/\" aria-label=\"Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons: Complex systems and agent-based modelling\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/stem\/decision-analysis\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Decision analysis under uncertainty<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Robust decision making \u00b7 Dynamic adaptive policy pathways \u00b7 Structured expert elicitation<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/decision-analysis\/\" aria-label=\"Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons: Decision analysis under uncertainty\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><\/ol><aside class=\"nx-limits\" aria-label=\"What the methods cannot say\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">What the methods cannot say<\/span><p class=\"nx-limits-text\">Projections of people already born are robust; projections of births, old-age mortality and migration are not, and migration can change abruptly. Survey measures of trust depend on question wording, sampling and timing, and comparisons across countries carry those differences. <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-cohesion\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The strength of relationships and the sense of solidarity among members of a society.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social cohesion<\/a> has no single agreed measure. Foresight Nexus documents evidence and methods; policy on pensions, migration and cohesion belongs to governments and parliaments.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-15-sec\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-15\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">15<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Questions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-15\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Questions and answers.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-faq\"><details><summary>Why are population projections more reliable than most forecasts?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Because much of the future population is already alive and ages predictably. The uncertainty concentrates in future births, old-age mortality and especially migration, which probabilistic projections show as widening intervals.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Can trust be forecast?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Not reliably. Trust measures show levels and trends, and foresight explores what could erode or rebuild them. Sudden shifts often follow events that scenarios can anticipate in kind but not in timing.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Why use scenarios when demographic projections exist?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Projections extend assumptions; scenarios question them. Combining the two lets institutions see what is close to set and what depends on choices about migration, family policy and longevity.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Are demographic projections forecasts?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">They are projections under stated assumptions. They are more reliable than many long-term estimates, but still depend on those assumptions.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Why does trust matter for resilience?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Because collective responses to crises depend on people&#8217;s willingness to follow guidance and cooperate.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Does Foresight Nexus make migration policy?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">No. It convenes dialogue. Policy is decided by competent authorities.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Who reviews coverage of this topic?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Published analysis is designed to be reviewed by a named subject reviewer, to cite its references and to include independent specialist voices. Where specialists disagree, the disagreement is reported rather than resolved by omission.<\/div><\/details><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Contribute evidence from this page.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\"><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Global Risks Forum<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Foresight Nexus<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Foresight Outlook<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Scenario and Stress-Test<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GRF<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. 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