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:where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-n2kkl0fx.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><section class=\"nx-scene nx-es-scene\" data-scene=\"text\" data-ground=\"none\" data-es-org=\"grf\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-scene-title\"><div class=\"nx-scene-intro nx-es-intro\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 Foresight Nexus<\/p><span class=\"nx-scene-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 id=\"nx-scene-title\" class=\"nx-scene-title\">Forecasting in foresight<\/h1><p class=\"nx-scene-lede\">Forecasting gives foresight a quantified edge where questions are well defined and resolvable. In this field, forecasting tournaments, aggregated judgement and probabilistic projections sit beside scenarios: they are scored against outcomes, and they mark the boundary where prediction gives way to exploration.<\/p><div class=\"nx-actions\"><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/write-to-us\/contact\/\">Make an enquiry <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/stem\/\">Back to STEM foundation of Foresight Nexus<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-1-sec\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contents<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-1\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Forecasting in foresight in five parts.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-es-fig\" data-es-layout=\"protocol\"><div class=\"nx-hero-panel\"><div class=\"nx-lv-steps\"><div class=\"nx-register-head\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\"><strong>Protocol<\/strong><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">5 steps<\/span><\/div><ol><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-application\"><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-n\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-t\">Application<\/span><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-d\">What forecasting and time-series analysis does here<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-data\"><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-n\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-t\">Data<\/span><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-d\">What the method consumes<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-checks\"><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-n\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-t\">Validation<\/span><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-d\">How results are checked<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-connections\"><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-n\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-t\">Connections<\/span><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-d\">Topics that rely on this method<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-stewardship\"><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-n\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-t\">Stewardship<\/span><span class=\"nx-lv-steps-d\">Who maintains the method<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-application\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Application<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-2\" class=\"nx-section-title\">What forecasting and time-series analysis does here.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Forecasting and time-series analysis predict future values of variables from past observations and explanatory information. They support <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> and planning across hazards, markets and health. In foresight and risk management and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 systemic-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Risk that the failure or disruption of parts of an interconnected system propagates through its dependencies to impair the functioning of the whole, often beyond the sector or place where it began. It arises from\u2026\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">systemic risk<\/a>, forecasts trigger early action and anticipatory finance before shocks materialise. Probabilistic forecasts allow decisions to account for uncertainty across connected <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. The canonical description is on <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/forecasting\/\">the STEM Commons<\/a>.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-cols\"><article><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\" data-size=\"lg\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 3v18h18\"\/><path d=\"m19 9-5 5-4-4-3 3\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h3 nx-mt-2\">Aggregated judgemental forecasting<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Questions with clear resolution criteria are put to trained forecasters or prediction platforms; individual forecasts are aggregated and later scored, so an institution learns where its judgement is calibrated and where it is not.<\/p><\/article><article><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\" data-size=\"lg\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M16 21v-2a4 4 0 0 0-4-4H6a4 4 0 0 0-4 4v2\"\/><circle cx=\"9\" cy=\"7\" r=\"4\"\/><path d=\"M22 21v-2a4 4 0 0 0-3-3.87\"\/><path d=\"M16 3.13a4 4 0 0 1 0 7.75\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h3 nx-mt-2\">Probabilistic population projections<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Demographic projections combine models of fertility, mortality and migration to produce intervals rather than single paths, making explicit which parts of the future are close to set.<\/p><\/article><article><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\" data-size=\"lg\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M4.9 19.1C1 15.2 1 8.8 4.9 4.9\"\/><path d=\"M7.8 16.2c-2.3-2.3-2.3-6.1 0-8.5\"\/><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"12\" r=\"2\"\/><path d=\"M16.2 7.8c2.3 2.3 2.3 6.1 0 8.5\"\/><path d=\"M19.1 4.9C23 8.8 23 15.1 19.1 19\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h3 nx-mt-2\">Break detection for horizon scanning<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Time series from trade, prices, search and news are monitored for breaks and anomalies that may mark an emerging issue, and each flagged change is reviewed by analysts before it enters a register.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-field\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Geography<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-3\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Hazards and exposure in the Arctic.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Population density, flood water and rain over the Arctic, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-canvas-wrap\"><div class=\"nx-cmap-field\" data-nx-map=\"ctx-field\" data-cmap=\"arctic:risk\" data-ml-points=\"on\" data-ml-feeds=\"eonet|https:\/\/eonet.gsfc.nasa.gov\/api\/v3\/events\" data-ml-src=\"risk\" data-ml-plan=\"p-c675a466\" data-ml-chart=\"f.ens\" data-ml-view=\"2d\" data-ml-ctx=\"theme:risk\" data-ml-list=\"gibs.health.people gibs.water.flood gibs.water.imerg gibs.energy.fires gibs.health.lstd gibs.biodiversity.ssta ev.eonet ev.usgs r.imerg f.ens f.flood r.goese gx.nhc gx.ems\" data-ml-tools=\"inspect measure compare export\"><div class=\"nx-wm\" data-nx-water=\"ctx-risk\" data-wm-domain=\"ctx-risk\" data-wm-tiles=\"on\" data-wm-flat=\"on\" data-wm-focus=\"-180,58,180,90\" data-ws-live=\"off\" data-claim=\"INTEGRATED\" data-wm-panel=\"closed\" data-wm-mode=\"2d\"><div class=\"nx-wm-stage\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"application\" aria-roledescription=\"interactive map\" aria-label=\"Hazards and exposure, the Arctic: satellite and model layers from NASA on a 3D terrain of ASTER GDEM elevation. Arrow keys move; with Shift they turn and tilt in 3D; plus and minus zoom, 0 resets; I inspects, question mark lists the keys.\" aria-describedby=\"nx-wm-help\"><canvas class=\"nx-wm-canvas\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/canvas><p class=\"nx-wm-noscript\">The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.<\/p><div class=\"nx-wm-presets\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Quick views\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"flood,people||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">People and floods<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"people||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Population<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"flood||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Floods this week<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"imerg||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Rain now<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-panel\" id=\"nx-wm-panel\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Map layers\"><div class=\"nx-wm-panel-head\"><p class=\"nx-wm-panel-title\">Layers <span class=\"nx-wm-count\">3<\/span><\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon nx-wm-panel-close\" data-wm-act=\"panel\" aria-label=\"Close the layer list\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3.5 3.5l9 9M12.5 3.5l-9 9\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-panel-body\"><div class=\"nx-wm-group\"><p class=\"nx-wm-group-title\">Hazards and exposure, for this page<\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"people\" aria-pressed=\"true\" data-wm-z=\"20\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"0.8\" data-wm-short=\"Population density\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)\" data-wm-kind=\"Census-based estimate, static (2020)\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Population density, 2020<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University) Gridded Population of the World v4.11 \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"people\">static<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"estimated\" data-wm-lic=\"CC BY 4.0\" data-wm-unit=\"people\/km\u00b2\">Estimated<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"people\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.health.people\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Estimated<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CC BY 4.0<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 1 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"flood\" aria-pressed=\"true\" data-wm-z=\"21\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-short=\"Flood water\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA LANCE\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Flood water, 3-day composite<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA LANCE VIIRS Global Flood Product \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"flood\">14 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\">Observed (clouds leave gaps)<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"flood\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.water.flood\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed (clouds leave gaps)<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA LANCE<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-14<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 250 m grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"imerg\" aria-pressed=\"true\" data-wm-z=\"22\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-short=\"Precipitation\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA GES DISC\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite estimate, near real time\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Precipitation rate, daily mean<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA GES DISC GPM IMERG \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"imerg\">12 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"estimated\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\">Estimated<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"imerg\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.water.imerg\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Estimated<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>GPM IMERG (NASA GES DISC)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA GES DISC<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite estimate, near real time<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-12<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 2 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite estimate, near real time. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"fires\" aria-pressed=\"false\" data-wm-z=\"23\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"1\" data-wm-breaks=\"10,50,200\" data-wm-short=\"Fires and flares\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA LANCE FIRMS\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Active fires and thermal anomalies<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA LANCE FIRMS VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"fires\">13 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\" data-wm-unit=\"MW\">Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"fires\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.energy.fires\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA LANCE FIRMS<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-13<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 500 m grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"lstd\" aria-pressed=\"false\" data-wm-z=\"24\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"0.8\" data-wm-short=\"Land temperature, day\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA LANCE\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA LANCE VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"lstd\">14 Sep 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\" data-wm-unit=\"\u00b0C\">Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"lstd\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.health.lstd\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA LANCE<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-09-14<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 1 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"ssta\" aria-pressed=\"false\" data-wm-z=\"25\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"0.85\" data-wm-short=\"Marine heat (anomaly)\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA JPL PO.DAAC\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite analysis\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Sea surface temperature anomaly<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA JPL PO.DAAC GHRSST MUR25 \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"ssta\">12 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\" data-wm-unit=\"\u00b0C\">Observed<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"ssta\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.biodiversity.ssta\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>GHRSST MUR25 (NASA JPL PO.DAAC)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA JPL PO.DAAC<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite analysis<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-12<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 2 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite analysis of how far sea temperature departs from its usual value for the date shown; a marine heat indicator, not a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.coral-bleaching\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Corals expelling their algal partners under heat stress, turning white and often dying, with loss of reef fisheries and shore protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\">coral bleaching<\/a> alert.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-rail\" role=\"toolbar\" aria-orientation=\"vertical\" aria-label=\"Map controls\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon nx-wm-open\" data-wm-act=\"panel\" aria-controls=\"nx-wm-panel\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-label=\"Layers\" title=\"Layers\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M8 2.5l-6.5 3.5 6.5 3.5 6.5-3.5zm-6.5 6.5 6.5 3.5 6.5-3.5m-13 2.8 6.5 3.5 6.5-3.5\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-act=\"tools\" aria-controls=\"nx-wm-menu\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-label=\"Expert tools\" title=\"Expert tools\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 4.5l10 0m-10 3.5 10 0m-10 3.5 10 0m-7.5-8.5 0 3m5 .5 0 3m-3.5.5 0 3\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" 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1.5-3.5M3.2 2.6v2.6h2.6\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-act=\"full\" aria-label=\"Full screen\" title=\"Full screen\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M2.5 6l0-3.5 3.5 0m7.5 3.5 0-3.5-3.5 0m-7.5 7.5 0 3.5 3.5 0m7.5-3.5 0 3.5-3.5 0\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-menu\" id=\"nx-wm-menu\" role=\"menu\" aria-label=\"Expert tools\" hidden><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-menu-item\" role=\"menuitemcheckbox\" aria-checked=\"false\" data-wm-tool=\"inspect\">Inspect a point<kbd>I<\/kbd><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-menu-item\" role=\"menuitemcheckbox\" aria-checked=\"false\" data-wm-tool=\"measure\">Measure distance<kbd>M<\/kbd><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-menu-item\" role=\"menuitemcheckbox\" aria-checked=\"false\" data-wm-tool=\"compare\">Compare two dates<kbd>C<\/kbd><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-menu-item\" role=\"menuitem\" data-wm-tool=\"share\">Copy a link to this view<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-menu-item\" role=\"menuitem\" data-wm-tool=\"png\">Export as PNG with credits<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-menu-item\" role=\"menuitem\" data-wm-tool=\"keys\">Keyboard shortcuts<kbd>?<\/kbd><\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-keys\" role=\"dialog\" aria-label=\"Keyboard shortcuts\" hidden><p class=\"nx-wm-keys-title\">Keyboard, with the map focused<\/p><dl class=\"nx-wm-keys-list\"><\/dl><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon nx-wm-keys-close\" data-wm-tool=\"keys\" aria-label=\"Close the shortcuts\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3.5 3.5l9 9M12.5 3.5l-9 9\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div><p class=\"nx-wm-hint\" hidden>Hold Ctrl or \u2318 and scroll to zoom<\/p><p class=\"nx-wm-toolbar\" role=\"status\" hidden><\/p><div class=\"nx-wm-tip\" role=\"tooltip\" hidden><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-pin\" hidden><div class=\"nx-wm-pin-head\"><p class=\"nx-wm-pin-title\"><\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-act=\"unpin\" aria-label=\"Close the card\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3.5 3.5l9 9M12.5 3.5l-9 9\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-pin-chart\"><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-pin-body\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-dock\"><div class=\"nx-wm-time\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Imagery date\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-step=\"prev\" aria-label=\"One day earlier\">\u2039<\/button><p class=\"nx-wm-time-label\">Latest available<\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-step=\"next\" aria-label=\"One day later\">\u203a<\/button><span class=\"nx-wm-track\" role=\"slider\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Imagery date, up to 30 days back\" aria-valuemin=\"0\" aria-valuemax=\"30\" aria-valuenow=\"30\" aria-valuetext=\"Latest available\"><\/span><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-latest\" data-wm-step=\"latest\" aria-pressed=\"true\">Latest<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-chips\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Legends\"><\/div><p class=\"nx-wm-attrib\">NASA GIBS \/ EOSDIS \u00b7 ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) \u00b7 Blue Marble (NASA) \u00b7 \u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) \u00b7 Natural Earth<\/p><div class=\"nx-wm-legends\" aria-live=\"polite\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-container nx-wm-below\"><p class=\"nx-wm-status\" role=\"status\">Loading the latest NASA imagery.<\/p><p id=\"nx-wm-help\" class=\"nx-wm-help\">Drag to move. Ctrl or \u2318 and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.<\/p><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>Hazards and exposure, framed on the Arctic.<\/span><span data-honesty=\"true\">Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.<\/span><\/p><details class=\"nx-wm-credits\"><summary><span class=\"nx-wm-credits-line\">Data: NASA GIBS \u00b7 ASTER GDEM \u00b7 Blue Marble \u00b7 <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.openstreetmap.org\/copyright\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors<\/a> \u00b7 Natural Earth \u00b7 NASA EONET \u00b7 U.S. Geological Survey \u00b7 NASA GPM IMERG Early<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-credits-more\">Sources and licences<\/span><\/summary><p class=\"nx-wm-credit\"><ul class=\"nx-wm-credit-list\"><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gibs.field-layers\">We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gibs.water-layers\">We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"sedac.gpw-v4\">Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7927\/H49C6VHW\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.7927\/H49C6VHW<\/a>. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.lance.viirs-water\">VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gpm.imerg\">GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.lance.firms\">NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.podaac.ghrsst-mur\">GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa-meti.aster-gdem-v3\">ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA\/METI\/AIST\/Japan Spacesystems and U.S.\/Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5067\/ASTER\/ASTGTM.003\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5067\/ASTER\/ASTGTM.003<\/a>. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"naturalearth.all-scales\">Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.naturalearthdata.com\/about\/terms-of-use\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Public domain<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gibs.reference-osm\">\u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.openstreetmap.org\/copyright\" rel=\"noopener\">ODbL<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.earth-observatory.blue-marble\">Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li>Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, \u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.<\/li><li><\/li><li>Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.<\/li><li>Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.<\/li><li>Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.<\/li><li>Live: NASA GPM IMERG Early. We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).<\/li><li>NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).<\/li><li>River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.<\/li><li>Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https:\/\/open-meteo.com\/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/).<\/li><li>Optional layers (11 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nx-wm-credit\"><strong>Layers and dates<\/strong><\/p><ul class=\"nx-wm-credit-list\"><li>Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"people\">static<\/span><\/li><li>Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"flood\">14 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"imerg\">12 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"fires\">13 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"lstd\">14 Sep 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"ssta\">12 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/p><\/details><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot nx-live-slot--map\" data-nxf-slot=\"map\" data-nxf-kind=\"map\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/grf\/R04\/stem\/forecasting\/#map\" data-nxf-title=\"Foresight Nexus live map\" data-nxf-height=\"560\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-band=\"auto\" data-band-id=\"nx-band-1\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-label=\"Data, Monitor, Validation, Policy scenarios\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-hm-band nx-band\" data-nx-tabs=\"true\" data-active=\"p1\"><div class=\"nx-tablist nx-hm-tabs\" role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Data, Monitor, Validation, Policy scenarios\"><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-1\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-data\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-key=\"p1\">Data<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-2\" aria-controls=\"nx-s-5-sec\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p2\">Monitor<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-3\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-checks\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p3\">Validation<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-4\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-instrument\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p4\">Policy scenarios<\/button><\/div><section id=\"nx-sec-data\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-4\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Data<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-4\" class=\"nx-section-title\">What the method consumes.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Datasets and records used by forecasting and time-series analysis on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/research\/sources\/\">the source register<\/a>.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\" data-lv=\"register\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Data<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Data\">Forecasting tournament and platform records<\/td><td data-label=\"Role\">Scoring of judgemental forecasts against resolutions<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Data\">UN World Population Prospects<\/td><td data-label=\"Role\">Probabilistic demographic projections<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">MODELLED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Data\">Published statistics time series<\/td><td data-label=\"Role\">Baselines and break detection<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Published statistics<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Data\">Text-based uncertainty indices<\/td><td data-label=\"Role\">Monitoring of attention and policy uncertainty<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">ESTIMATED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"data\" data-nxf-kind=\"data\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/grf\/R04\/stem\/forecasting\/#data\" data-nxf-title=\"Method record\" data-nxf-height=\"520\" hidden><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"evidence\" data-nxf-kind=\"evidence\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/grf\/R04\/stem\/forecasting\/#evidence\" data-nxf-title=\"Evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"520\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-5-sec\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-5\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Monitor<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-5\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Forecast verification.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><figure class=\"nx-fk nx-cx\" data-fk=\"cx-foresight-method-forecast\" data-cx=\"foresight.method-forecast\" data-variant=\"section\" aria-label=\"Forecast verification: illustrative console with example names and values\"><div class=\"nx-fk-head\"><div class=\"nx-fk-heading\"><h3 class=\"nx-fk-title\">Forecast verification<\/h3><p class=\"nx-fk-sub\">Foresight \u00b7 Forecasting in foresight \u00b7 Run R-8210<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-actions\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-fk-btn\" data-fk-act=\"menu\" aria-haspopup=\"true\" aria-expanded=\"false\" hidden><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 4v11\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><path d=\"M5 20h14\"\/><\/svg>Export<\/button><ul class=\"nx-fk-menu\" data-fk-menu=\"true\" hidden><li><button type=\"button\" data-fk-act=\"export-png\">Image<small>PNG of the map or chart<\/small><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" data-fk-act=\"export-csv\">Data<small>CSV of the figure&#8217;s values<\/small><\/button><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-cx-status\"><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"met\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>Skill above reference<\/span><span class=\"nx-cx-prod\">GRF \u00b7 Foresight Nexus<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-cx-grid\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel nx-cx-p\" data-w=\"4\" data-t=\"chart\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel-head\"><div><h4 class=\"nx-fk-panel-title\">Forecast with range<\/h4><\/div><\/div><svg class=\"nx-fk-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 460 210\" width=\"460\" height=\"210\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Forecast with range\" focusable=\"false\" tabindex=\"0\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMidYMid meet\" data-fk-chart=\"cx-foresight-method-forecast-c0\" data-fk-xs=\"lin,0,23,36,446\" data-fk-ys=\"lin,0,100,180,20\" data-fk-series=\"Observed|ink|l||0:48.7;1:47.1;2:44.7;3:46.1;4:49;5:46.1;6:43.7;7:42.8;8:44.4;9:49.4;10:44.1;11:40.5;12:41;13:42.5~Forecast median|acc|l||13:42.5;14:43.6;15:44.7;16:45.8;17:46.9;18:48;19:49.1;20:50.2;21:51.3;22:52.4;23:53.5~80 pct range, upper|s3|l||13:42.5;14:45.800000000000004;15:49.1;16:52.4;17:55.7;18:59;19:62.300000000000004;20:65.60000000000001;21:68.9;22:72.2;23:75.5~80 pct range, lower|s3|l||13:42.5;14:41.6;15:40.7;16:39.8;17:38.9;18:38;19:37.1;20:36.2;21:35.3;22:34.4;23:33.5\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-panel nx-cx-p\" data-w=\"2\" data-t=\"kv\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel-head\"><div><h4 class=\"nx-fk-panel-title\">Method card<\/h4><\/div><\/div><dl class=\"nx-fk-dl\"><div><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>Forecasting and time-series analysis<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Reference<\/dt><dd>climatology<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Lead times<\/dt><dd>1 to 9 steps<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Label<\/dt><dd><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"info\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>MODELLED<\/span><\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-panel nx-cx-p\" data-w=\"6\" data-t=\"table\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel-head\"><div><h4 class=\"nx-fk-panel-title\">Verification by lead time<\/h4><p class=\"nx-fk-panel-sub\">held-out period<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-tablewrap\" data-fk-view=\"table:cx-foresight-method-forecast-t2\"><table class=\"nx-fk-table\" data-fk-table=\"cx-foresight-method-forecast-t2\" aria-label=\"Verification by lead time\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c0\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c0\">Lead<\/button><\/th><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c1\" data-num=\"true\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c1\">CRPS<\/button><\/th><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c2\" data-num=\"true\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c2\">Brier score<\/button><\/th><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c3\" data-num=\"true\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c3\">Skill vs reference<\/button><\/th><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c4\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c4\">State<\/button><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-fk-key=\"cx-foresight-method-forecast:r2-0\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"row\" aria-selected=\"false\"><td>T+2<\/td><td data-num=\"true\" data-sv=\"0.13\">0.13<\/td><td data-num=\"true\" data-sv=\"0.22\">0.22<\/td><td data-num=\"true\" data-sv=\"0.15\">0.15<\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"met\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>Skilful<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr data-fk-key=\"cx-foresight-method-forecast:r2-1\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"row\" aria-selected=\"false\"><td>T+4<\/td><td data-num=\"true\" data-sv=\"0.2\">0.20<\/td><td data-num=\"true\" data-sv=\"0.18\">0.18<\/td><td data-num=\"true\" data-sv=\"0.31\">0.31<\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"met\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>Skilful<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr data-fk-key=\"cx-foresight-method-forecast:r2-2\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"row\" aria-selected=\"false\"><td>T+6<\/td><td data-num=\"true\" data-sv=\"0.15\">0.15<\/td><td data-num=\"true\" data-sv=\"0.12\">0.12<\/td><td data-num=\"true\" data-sv=\"0.25\">0.25<\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"near\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>Marginal<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr data-fk-key=\"cx-foresight-method-forecast:r2-3\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"row\" aria-selected=\"false\"><td>T+8<\/td><td data-num=\"true\" data-sv=\"0.27\">0.27<\/td><td data-num=\"true\" data-sv=\"0.21\">0.21<\/td><td data-num=\"true\" data-sv=\"0.39\">0.39<\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"near\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>Marginal<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-tip\" aria-hidden=\"true\" hidden><\/div><figcaption class=\"nx-fk-cap\"><span>Forecast verification: the screen&#8217;s structure, terms and states for Foresight.<\/span><span data-honesty=\"true\">Example names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-checks\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-6\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Validation<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-6\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How results are checked.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Forecasts are evaluated out of sample with proper scoring rules and reliability diagrams. Rolling-origin evaluation tests performance over time.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Check<\/th><th scope=\"col\">How it is done<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Check\">Proper scoring<\/td><td data-label=\"How it is done\">Forecasts are scored with Brier or logarithmic scores on every resolved question, never on a selection made after the fact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Check\">Calibration review<\/td><td data-label=\"How it is done\">Stated probabilities are compared with observed frequencies across many questions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Check\">Horizon limits<\/td><td data-label=\"How it is done\">Skill is reported by <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 lead-time\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The interval between issuing a forecast or warning and the onset of the event it concerns.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">lead time<\/a>, and questions beyond demonstrated skill are handed to scenario methods<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Check\">Structural break tests<\/td><td data-label=\"How it is done\">Series are tested for breaks before past patterns are projected forward<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Structural breaks and regime changes undermine models trained on the past. Forecast skill typically declines rapidly with lead time.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-instrument\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-ns-layout=\"es-wide\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-7\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">07<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Policy scenarios<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-7\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Three families of instruments side by side against the baseline, each with its own lag and adoption speed, under the coverage and compliance you set; effect sizes are teaching values to replace with evidence. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast. The map on this page shows The Arctic; the model itself is not tied to a place.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><figure class=\"nx-in nx-fk\" id=\"nx-in-foresight-stem-forecasting-0\" data-nxi=\"policy\" data-nxi-id=\"policy\" data-nxi-z=\"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\" aria-label=\"Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information\"><div class=\"nx-in-body\"><div class=\"nx-in-main\"><div class=\"nx-in-tabs\" data-nxi-tabs=\"true\" aria-label=\"Views of the model\" hidden><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"result\">Result<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"fan\">Uncertainty<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"tornado\">Sensitivity<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"loops\">Loops<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-in-stage\" id=\"nx-in-foresight-stem-forecasting-0-stage\" data-nxi-stage=\"true\" data-view=\"result\"><svg class=\"nx-in-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 720 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Outcome by option\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><\/div><p class=\"nx-in-tip\" data-nxi-tip=\"true\" aria-live=\"polite\"><\/p><div class=\"nx-in-bar\" data-nxi-bar=\"true\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Play over time\" hidden><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-prev=\"true\" aria-label=\"Step back\">&#8249;<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-play=\"true\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Play<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-next=\"true\" aria-label=\"Step forward\">&#8250;<\/button><span class=\"nx-in-step\" data-nxi-step=\"true\" aria-live=\"polite\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-in-side\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Controls<\/p><div class=\"nx-in-ctl\" data-nxi-ctl=\"true\"><dl class=\"nx-in-pv\"><div><dt>Baseline trend of the outcome<\/dt><dd>2.0% a year<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Coverage of the instrument<\/dt><dd>70%<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Compliance<\/dt><dd>75%<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Effect size, against the teaching value<\/dt><dd>100%<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Years ahead<\/dt><dd>20 years<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Readouts<\/p><dl class=\"nx-in-out\" data-nxi-out=\"true\" aria-live=\"polite\"><div><dt>Largest reduction at the horizon<\/dt><dd>Regulation<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Its reduction against the baseline<\/dt><dd>21%<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><\/div><details class=\"nx-in-more\"><summary>Numbers, methods and sources<\/summary><div class=\"nx-in-more-in\"><div class=\"nx-in-tblw\" data-nxi-table=\"true\"><table class=\"nx-in-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Regulation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Economic incentive<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Information and capacity<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">0<\/th><td>100.0<\/td><td>99.5<\/td><td>98.8<\/td><td>99.1<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">1<\/th><td>102.0<\/td><td>101.2<\/td><td>100.1<\/td><td>99.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2<\/th><td>104.0<\/td><td>102.5<\/td><td>101.1<\/td><td>99.9<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">3<\/th><td>106.1<\/td><td>103.5<\/td><td>101.6<\/td><td>100.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">4<\/th><td>108.2<\/td><td>103.7<\/td><td>101.8<\/td><td>100.7<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">5<\/th><td>110.4<\/td><td>103.2<\/td><td>101.7<\/td><td>102.1<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">6<\/th><td>112.6<\/td><td>102.0<\/td><td>101.6<\/td><td>103.9<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">7<\/th><td>114.9<\/td><td>100.4<\/td><td>101.6<\/td><td>105.9<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">8<\/th><td>117.2<\/td><td>99.2<\/td><td>102.1<\/td><td>108.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">9<\/th><td>119.5<\/td><td>98.6<\/td><td>102.9<\/td><td>110.1<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">10<\/th><td>121.9<\/td><td>98.9<\/td><td>104.2<\/td><td>112.3<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">11<\/th><td>124.3<\/td><td>99.7<\/td><td>105.7<\/td><td>114.5<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">12<\/th><td>126.8<\/td><td>101.1<\/td><td>107.4<\/td><td>116.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">13<\/th><td>129.4<\/td><td>102.7<\/td><td>109.4<\/td><td>119.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">14<\/th><td>131.9<\/td><td>104.5<\/td><td>111.4<\/td><td>121.6<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">15<\/th><td>134.6<\/td><td>106.5<\/td><td>113.5<\/td><td>124.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">16<\/th><td>137.3<\/td><td>108.5<\/td><td>115.7<\/td><td>126.5<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">17<\/th><td>140.0<\/td><td>110.7<\/td><td>118.0<\/td><td>129.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">18<\/th><td>142.8<\/td><td>112.9<\/td><td>120.4<\/td><td>131.6<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">19<\/th><td>145.7<\/td><td>115.1<\/td><td>122.8<\/td><td>134.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">20<\/th><td>148.6<\/td><td>117.4<\/td><td>125.2<\/td><td>136.9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-csv=\"true\" hidden>Download the numbers (CSV)<\/button><h4 class=\"nx-h4\">Methods<\/h4><ol class=\"nx-in-meth\"><li>Tools of government <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan<\/span><\/li><li>Carrots, sticks and sermons <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction<\/span><\/li><li>Diffusion of innovations <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press<\/span><\/li><li>Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333<\/span><\/li><li>One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley<\/span><\/li><\/ol><h4 class=\"nx-h4\">Data<\/h4><p class=\"nx-p\">The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page&#8217;s map can draw:<\/p><ul class=\"nx-in-src\"><li>Borders <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Natural Earth<\/span><\/li><li>Cities <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Natural Earth<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/details><figcaption class=\"nx-caption\">Compare instruments: rules, incentives and information. Illustrative teaching model: it runs on the values set by the controls, not on measured data. Methods: Tools of government (Hood (1983), The Tools of Government, Macmillan); Carrots, sticks and sermons (Bemelmans-Videc, Rist and Vedung (1998), Transaction); Diffusion of innovations (Rogers (2003), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press).<\/figcaption><div class=\"nx-in-pls\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium<\/p><ul class=\"nx-in-pl\" aria-label=\"Where this instrument connects across the pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Experiments<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Built in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/foundry\/\">Foresight Nexus in Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Tested at<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/universe\/\">Foresight Nexus in Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Codified in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/\">Systemic Risks in Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Published in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/reports\/\">Foresight Nexus in Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Taught in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/\">Faculty of Risk Science and Methods in Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><span class=\"nx-in-keep\" hidden><i data-c=\"c1\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c2\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c4\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c5\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c6\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l0\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l1\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l2\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l5\"><\/i><i data-c=\"h3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"neg\"><\/i><i data-c=\"on0\"><\/i><i data-c=\"on1\"><\/i><i data-l=\"0\"><\/i><i data-l=\"1\"><\/i><i data-l=\"2\"><\/i><i data-l=\"3\"><\/i><i data-l=\"4\"><\/i><i data-l=\"5\"><\/i><i data-on=\"0\"><\/i><i data-on=\"1\"><\/i><i data-pol=\"p\"><\/i><i data-pol=\"n\"><\/i><i data-k=\"R\"><\/i><i data-k=\"B\"><\/i><i data-k=\"dash\"><\/i><i data-dash=\"true\"><\/i><i data-view=\"result\"><\/i><i data-nxi-live=\"on\"><\/i><i data-nxi-live=\"off\"><\/i><i class=\"nx-in-svg nx-in-grid nx-in-ax nx-in-tk nx-in-at nx-in-ln nx-in-band nx-in-lbl nx-in-lk nx-in-ref nx-in-reft nx-in-mk nx-in-x nx-in-rect nx-in-val nx-in-rowl nx-in-cl nx-in-arrow nx-in-pol nx-in-cln nx-in-loop nx-in-edge nx-in-node nx-in-nl nx-in-reach nx-in-trib nx-in-agent nx-in-flow nx-in-legend nx-in-sw nx-in-note nx-in-loops nx-in-3d nx-in-cv nx-in-field nx-in-fl nx-in-fv nx-in-range nx-in-btn nx-in-err nx-in-tbl nx-in-cite\"><\/i><\/span><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-band=\"auto\" data-band-id=\"nx-band-2\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-label=\"Connections, Implementation, Stewardship, Twin and cascade simulator\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-hm-band nx-band\" data-nx-tabs=\"true\" data-active=\"p1\"><div class=\"nx-tablist nx-hm-tabs\" role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Connections, Implementation, Stewardship, Twin and cascade simulator\"><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-1\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-connections\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-key=\"p1\">Connections<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-2\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-instrument-2\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p2\">Implementation<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-3\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-stewardship\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p3\">Stewardship<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-4\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-twin\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p4\">Twin and cascade simulator<\/button><\/div><section id=\"nx-sec-connections\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-8\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">08<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Connections<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-8\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Topics that rely on this method.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-list\" data-nav=\"true\"><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/topics\/horizon-scanning\/\"><span>Horizon scanning<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/topics\/strategic-scenarios\/\"><span>Strategic scenarios<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/topics\/deep-uncertainty\/\"><span>Deep uncertainty<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/topics\/technology-futures\/\"><span>Technology futures<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/topics\/geopolitical-futures\/\"><span>Geopolitical futures<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/topics\/demographic-and-social-futures\/\"><span>Demographic and social futures<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/topics\/future-generations\/\"><span>Future generations<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/topics\/foresight-in-decisions\/\"><span>Foresight in decisions<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-instrument-2\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-ns-layout=\"es-wide\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-9\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">09<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Implementation<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-9\" class=\"nx-section-title\">From mandate to evaluation, by pillar.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The steps an instrument takes from mandate to evaluation, each with the pillar that runs it, and the decisions that stay with the authority. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Arctic; the model itself is not tied to a place.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><figure class=\"nx-in nx-fk\" id=\"nx-in-foresight-stem-forecasting-1\" aria-label=\"From mandate to evaluation, by pillar\"><ol class=\"nx-in-steps\"><li><strong>Mandate and problem framing<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Competent authority (outside the programme)<\/span><br>A competent authority frames the problem and the mandate under its own rules. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Evidence and system model<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Foundry<\/span><br>The system is modelled with its feedbacks, data and stated limits. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">OECD (2014), principle 2<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Options appraised with scenarios<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Foundry<\/span><br>Instruments are compared under scenarios, with uncertainty shown. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Hood (1983)<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Exercise with stakeholders<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Universe<\/span><br>The options are tested in an exercise with those who would implement and bear them. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">OECD (2014), principle 3<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Standard or guidance drafted<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Nexus Standards<\/span><br>What works is codified as a standard or guidance, open to comment. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Nexus Standards process<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Decision by the authority<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Competent authority (outside the programme)<\/span><br>The authority decides, outside the programme, with the evidence on record. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Capacity and training<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Risk Academy<\/span><br>Those who implement are trained on the decided instrument and its data. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Sendai Framework (2015), priority 2<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Monitoring and public report<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Reports<\/span><br>Indicators are published with sources, limits and corrections. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">OECD (2014), principle 5<\/span><\/li><li><strong>Evaluation and revision<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Nexus Standards<\/span><br>Results return to the standard and the model: the cycle closes. <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009)<\/span><\/li><\/ol><h4 class=\"nx-h4\">Methods<\/h4><ol class=\"nx-in-meth\"><li>Policy cycle <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009), Studying Public Policy, Oxford University Press<\/span><\/li><li>Governance of critical risks <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">OECD (2014), Recommendation of the Council on the Governance of Critical Risks<\/span><\/li><li>Layered drawing of directed graphs <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Sugiyama, Tagawa and Toda (1981), IEEE SMC 11<\/span><\/li><\/ol><figcaption class=\"nx-caption\">From mandate to evaluation, by pillar: the steps as recorded, each with its pillar; sources as cited on each step.<\/figcaption><div class=\"nx-in-pls\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium<\/p><ul class=\"nx-in-pl\" aria-label=\"Where this instrument connects across the pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Experiments<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Built in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/foundry\/\">Foresight Nexus in Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Tested at<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/universe\/\">Foresight Nexus in Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Codified in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/\">Systemic Risks in Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Published in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/foresight\/reports\/\">Foresight Nexus in Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Taught in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/\">Faculty of Risk Science and Methods in Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><span class=\"nx-in-keep\" hidden><i data-c=\"c1\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c2\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c4\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c5\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c6\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l0\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l1\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l2\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l5\"><\/i><i data-c=\"h3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"neg\"><\/i><i data-c=\"on0\"><\/i><i data-c=\"on1\"><\/i><i data-l=\"0\"><\/i><i data-l=\"1\"><\/i><i data-l=\"2\"><\/i><i data-l=\"3\"><\/i><i data-l=\"4\"><\/i><i data-l=\"5\"><\/i><i data-on=\"0\"><\/i><i data-on=\"1\"><\/i><i data-pol=\"p\"><\/i><i data-pol=\"n\"><\/i><i data-k=\"R\"><\/i><i data-k=\"B\"><\/i><i data-k=\"dash\"><\/i><i data-dash=\"true\"><\/i><i data-view=\"result\"><\/i><i data-nxi-live=\"on\"><\/i><i data-nxi-live=\"off\"><\/i><i class=\"nx-in-svg nx-in-grid nx-in-ax nx-in-tk nx-in-at nx-in-ln nx-in-band nx-in-lbl nx-in-lk nx-in-ref nx-in-reft nx-in-mk nx-in-x nx-in-rect nx-in-val nx-in-rowl nx-in-cl nx-in-arrow nx-in-pol nx-in-cln nx-in-loop nx-in-edge nx-in-node nx-in-nl nx-in-reach nx-in-trib nx-in-agent nx-in-flow nx-in-legend nx-in-sw nx-in-note nx-in-loops nx-in-3d nx-in-cv nx-in-field nx-in-fl nx-in-fv nx-in-range nx-in-btn nx-in-err nx-in-tbl nx-in-cite\"><\/i><\/span><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-stewardship\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-10\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">10<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Stewardship<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-10\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Who maintains the method.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\"><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/climate-hazards\/\">Climate and Hazards<\/a> stewards forecasting and time-series analysis for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><p class=\"nx-p\"><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/forecasting\/\">Canonical page: Forecasting and time-series analysis<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-twin\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-span=\"wide\" data-ns-layout=\"twin\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-11\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">11<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Twin and cascade simulator<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-11\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Exercise a cascade in forecasting in foresight with the people who decide.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Assembled from the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> area profile <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/future-generations-and-long-term-risk\/\">Future generations and long-term risk<\/a>: the hazards it names, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and communities that carry the loss, the controls and institutions that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating event and step through the cascade to see where mandates meet and which decisions fall to whom. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise for dialogue, not a forecast, an assessment or a position. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/system-builder\/\">System Builder<\/a>.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-ns-twin\" data-ns-data=\"nx-twin-es-stem-forecasting-R04\" data-ns-credits=\"Nexus Standards registry and area profiles; Nexus Hazard Standard NHS-1 1.1.0\"><div class=\"nx-ns-twin-static\"><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Hazards<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h111\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.geopolitical.nuclear-war\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons\" data-td=\"Use of many nuclear weapons between states, killing people through blast, fire and fallout and wrecking cities, infrastructure, health systems and the world economy.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H111\" data-tr=\"draft\">Nuclear war<\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h47\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.structural.dam-failure\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Structural and civil failure\" data-td=\"Breach or collapse of a dam, sending a sudden flood wave downstream.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H47\" data-tr=\"draft\">Dam failure<\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h61\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.cascade.financial-contagion\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Cascading failure\" data-td=\"Spread of a financial shock between institutions, markets and countries through shared exposures and loss of confidence.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H61\" data-tr=\"draft\">Financial contagion<\/a><\/li><li>Cryptographically relevant quantum computer<\/li><li>River flood (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Flash flood (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Mass displacement (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Nuclear detonation (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Health-system overload (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Data breach (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Mass account takeover (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Widespread power outage (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Currency crisis (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Nuclear winter (set off downstream)<\/li><li>High-altitude electromagnetic pulse (set off downstream)<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Systems and couplings<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/future-generations-and-long-term-risk\/\">Future generations and long-term risk<\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/global-catastrophic-and-existential-risk-standards\/\">Global catastrophic and existential risk standards<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Mechanism<\/span><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/climate-adaptation-and-transition-risk\/\">Climate adaptation and transition risk<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Mechanism<\/span><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/global-and-systemic-risk\/\">Global and systemic risk<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Common driver<\/span><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/digital-ai\/frontier-technology-risk-standards\/\">Frontier technology risk standards<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Mechanism<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Controls<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li><code>NS-0<\/code> Constitution and principles<\/li><li><code>NS-9<\/code> Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)<\/li><li><code>NS-10<\/code> Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)<\/li><li><code>NS-11<\/code> Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)<\/li><li><code>NS-13<\/code> Standards development process (open proposals, review, versioning, adoption)<\/li><li><code>NRS-U12<\/code> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> platform profile: Foresight Nexus<\/li><li><code>NRS-H26<\/code> Hazard family: Land and wetland degradation (NHS-1 eco.land)<\/li><li><code>NRS-H92<\/code> Hazard family: Ageing and degraded infrastructure (NHS-1 infra.ageing)<\/li><li><code>NRS-P4<\/code> Foresight, horizon scanning and strategy<\/li><li><code>NRS-H11<\/code> Hazard family: Coastal and sea-level hazards (NHS-1 water.coastal)<\/li><li><code>NRS-H31<\/code> Hazard family: Persistent and bioaccumulative substances (NHS-1 poll.persistent)<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Observation<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Our World in Data datasets (listed for reference)<\/li><li>CMIP6 climate projections (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)<\/li><li>World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)<\/li><li>Number of countries with mechanisms in place to enhance policy coherence of sustainable development<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Example geography<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells<\/li><li>Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day\/Night Band), NASA GIBS<\/li><li>Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS<\/li><li>Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS<\/li><li>Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-band=\"auto\" data-band-id=\"nx-band-3\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-label=\"Connected, Instruments and commitments, Questions\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-hm-band nx-band\" data-nx-tabs=\"true\" data-active=\"p1\"><div class=\"nx-tablist nx-hm-tabs\" role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Connected, Instruments and commitments, Questions\"><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-1\" aria-controls=\"nx-s-12-sec\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-key=\"p1\">Connected<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-2\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-audience\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p2\">Instruments and commitments<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-3\" aria-controls=\"nx-s-14-sec\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p3\">Questions<\/button><\/div><section id=\"nx-s-12-sec\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-12\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">12<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Connected<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-12\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Where this page leads across the Consortium.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/climate-hazards\/stem\/forecasting\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Steward platform<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\"><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr><\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Forecasting for hazards<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Climate and Hazards stewards this method.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-audience\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"systemic\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-13\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">13<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Instruments and commitments<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-13\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How forecasting in foresight is governed: instruments, mandates and commitments.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The instruments, mandates, actors and accountability arrangements a policymaker, diplomat or development agency works with, citing the agreements that set them. Structures follow the frameworks named. Any state or progress drawn is illustrative, not a record.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-au\" data-au-voice=\"governance\" data-au-n=\"1\"><figure class=\"nx-au-c\" data-au-fig=\"instrument-matrix\"><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Policy instrument matrix<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-au-what\">The kinds of instrument available on forecasting in foresight, by level of government and cooperation.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Local<\/th><th scope=\"col\">National<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Regional<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Global<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Regulatory<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Zoning, building codes<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Laws, standards, licensing<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Harmonised rules<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Conventions and treaties<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Economic<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Local levies, grants<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Budget lines, taxes, insurance schemes<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Risk pools, regional funds<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Financing mechanisms<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Information<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Local warnings<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Disclosure, early warning, statistics<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Data sharing arrangements<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Global monitoring and reporting<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Institutional<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Local committees<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Lead agencies, coordination councils<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Regional bodies and secretariats<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Multilateral mandates<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instrument type\"><strong>Cooperative<\/strong><\/td><td data-label=\"Local\">Community agreements<\/td><td data-label=\"National\">Partnership compacts<\/td><td data-label=\"Regional\">Memoranda and joint programmes<\/td><td data-label=\"Global\">Agreements and joint commitments<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><figcaption class=\"nx-caption\"><span>A typology after the OECD Recommendation on the Governance of Critical Risks; examples of instrument types, not an inventory of any country&#8217;s measures.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-chips nx-au-fw\" aria-label=\"Frameworks cited\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction \u00b7 UNDRR<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Paris Agreement \u00b7 UNFCCC<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals \u00b7 United Nations<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">International Health Regulations \u00b7 WHO<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-14-sec\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"risk\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-14\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">14<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Questions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-14\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Questions and answers.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-faq\"><details><summary>What are the limits of forecasting and time-series analysis in this field?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Structural breaks and regime changes undermine models trained on the past. Forecast skill typically declines rapidly with lead time.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>How are results checked?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Forecasts are evaluated out of sample with proper scoring rules and reliability diagrams. Rolling-origin evaluation tests performance over time.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Are the values on this page real?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method&#8217;s use, not a run; no result is reported here.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Where else is this method applied?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">The <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/forecasting\/\">canonical method page<\/a> lists every platform that applies it.<\/div><\/details><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Contribute evidence from this page.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\"><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication. 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